格隆汇4月18日｜美联储理事沃勒表示，由于伊朗战争引发的能源冲击，他对短期内是否需要降息持谨慎态度，并警告称该冲突可能对通胀产生持续影响。沃勒在讲话中勾勒了两种主要情景。在第一种情景下，若霍尔木兹海峡重新开放、贸易流动恢复正常，官员们将能够忽略能源价格的飙升，并在今年晚些时候将关注重点转向疲软的就业市场。他表示，如果出现这种情况，“我认为有一种前景是，潜在通胀将继续向2%目标回落，这将使我对当前降息保持谨慎，并更倾向于在今年稍晚、前景更为稳定时通过降息来支持劳动力市场。”不过他警告称，油价以及整体市场低估了冲突长期化的风险。“在通胀方面，风险在于冲突持续时间越长、能源价格维持高位的时间越久，这些高企价格渗透至其他价格的可能性就越大，因为企业会在定价时将高昂的能源投入成本纳入考量。”他表示，如果这种情况发生在就业市场疲弱的背景下，将限制政策应对空间。在这种情形下，他将权衡更高通胀与更弱劳动力市场之间的风险，“如果通胀风险超过劳动力市场风险，这可能意味着将政策利率维持在当前目标区间。”

Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Christopher Gannatti, CFA and Jonathan Flynn Introduction: The Golden Illusion For decades, investors have treated gold as the ultimate financial anchor, the potential "safe haven" that holds steady when the rest of the world is in flames. However, the behavior of gold’s price in March 2026 provided a brutal reality check that challenged this long-held assumption. In a move that caught many off guard, gold plummeted 12% to finish the month at US$4,608/oz. 1 This wasn’t just a minor correction; it was the metal's weakest monthly performance since June 2013. 2 While gold remains up for the year, the suddenness of the drop left many wondering how an asset designed to protect against volatility could suddenly become a primary source of it. The answer lies not in a sudden loss of faith in gold’s value, but in the cold, hard mechanics of global liquidity. It Wasn’t the News—It Was the Exit Door When markets panic, the first thing investors reach for isn’t necessarily the safest asset but the most liquid one. The March 2026 drawdown in gold’s price was a classic example of "deleveraging" taking precedence over long-term fundamentals. The data paints a starker picture than the headlines suggest. Global gold exchange-traded products shed 84 tons (US$12bn) in March 2026, but the pain was geographically concentrated. North America led the exodus with a massive 87-ton outflow (US$14bn), while Europe lost 7 tons. In a fascinating "East-West" divide, Asia saw a welcome positive inflow of 10 tons (US$1.9bn), as regional investors viewed the carnage as a buying opportunity. 3 Under the hood, the "Momentum factors" were the primary culprits. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) were positioned very long heading into mid-March before sharply unwinding those positions as the price trend reversed. 4 While COMEX managed money net longs dropped by US$2bn (19 tons), the underlying signal for bulls is that the net long bias remains solid. 5 T...

Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images In this column, we resume our regional bank coverage with the just reported Q1 earnings from Independent Bank Corp. ( INDB ). So far early on in this earnings season, we have seen no real signs of concern in lending activity or asset quality. However, we continue to investigate, looking for any signs of underlying weakness. While the market had a horrible March, we are not back to all-time highs here in April. Truly a historic rally. And regional bank stocks are rallying, too. So, that said, as a reminder, Independent Bank operates as the holding company for Rockland Trust, which significantly increased its footprint in mid-2025 through the acquisition of Enterprise Bank. That move shifted the bank into a larger one, and our focus now is on how well the company is digesting that growth while navigating the broader economic environment in early 2026. Q1 results suggest that while the inorganic bump from the merger is well-established, the core underlying performance remains resilient, but there was some loan book and asset quality noise. We remain neutral on this name. Let us discuss. Independent Bank Q1 Headline Results Revenues remained robust in Q1, coming in at $252.7 million, which represents a significant 42% increase over the same period last year. While much of this year-over-year growth is tied to the Enterprise acquisition, the sequential comparison to Q4 shows there has been margin strength. The reported net interest margin expanded by 13 basis points to 3.90%, while the adjusted margin, which strips out some merger-related accounting noise, rose to 3.72%. On the bottom line, Independent Bank reported net income of $79.9 million, or $1.63 of EPS. Folks, this was a healthy step up from the $1.52 seen in Q4. However, when we look at the adjusted numbers controlling for the merger costs, we saw EPS of $1.68. This was a slight $0.02 sequential decrease from the adjusted $1.70 seen in Q4, but it still narrowly edged ...

"Bloomberg Real Yield" highlights the market-moving news you need to know. Today's guests: BoFA Securities Senior US Rates Strategist Meghan Swiber, Neuberger CIO & Global Head of Fixed Income Ashok Bhatia, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Head of Multi Sector Fixed Income Investing Lindsay Rosner, and Corbin Capital Partners Deputy CIO, Credit John Cocke. (Source: Bloomberg)

On device strategy supports steady outlook

美联储理事沃勒表示，如果战争导致高通胀和劳动力市场疲软，可能需要维持利率不变。中东战争拖延时间越长，通胀和就业风险就越大。中东局势迅速解决可能允许今年晚些时候降息。

The Good Brigade/DigitalVision via Getty Images Thesis The main case for Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. ( TRVI ) centres on their transition into a late-stage, execution-driven biotech. They have a potentially first-in-class asset in Haduvio , and it’s clear to see the company is now prioritising their pipeline in a value-maximising sequence. First priority seems to be IPF-related chronic cough as the lead indication, followed by non-IPF ILD due to a pretty strong commercial overlap. Later on, refractory chronic cough (RCC) is a larger but slightly secondary market, with an eventual long-term strategy to rapidly expand the label via follow-on approvals once its initial approval is actually achieved. So we’re seeing somewhat of an expand-the-franchise approach that has potential for Trevi to efficiently scale into a multi-indication chronic cough platform. The near-term catalysts are also pretty well laid out and include Phase 3 trial initiations in 2Q26, with RCC Phase 2b initiation and interim readout expected later in the year. I think the upside case definitely hinges on a successful Phase 3 execution, in that if Haduvio replicates its prior efficacy, demonstrates durability, and also shows us a clean safety profile, Trevi could potentially end up with the first approved therapy in a pretty large, underserved market. This would be needed to justify the hefty premium valuation and could also potentially drive a significant re-rating. However, this does still remain very much in a high-risk, high-reward setup, and while regulatory clarity has improved, with the company entering a critical execution phase, I feel that the story is still highly dependent on Phase 3 outcomes. Which is why I feel it is best to hold and wait until that huddle has been cleared. Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. FY25 recap Just to recap from last earnings , Trevi reported a rather improved financial position for FY25 as well as some clinical momentum. The company managed to close out the year with about...

Prediction: These Will Be the Next 3 Stocks to Join the $3 Trillion Club The Globe and Mail

Energy stocks took a hit on Friday amid falling oil prices — and that could spell a buying opportunity for certain names favored by Goldman Sachs. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was " completely open " earlier in the day, but President Donald Trump said the U.S. blockade was still active. Oil prices tumbled , with Brent crude futures dropping more than 8% and West Texas Intermediate futures sliding 10%. "We recognize there is significant geopolitical and commodity volatility, but these are ideas that we believe are fundamentally underpinned at our mid-cycle views," Goldman analyst Neil Mehta said in a note Monday of his list of buy-rated energy stocks. Several of the names he is bullish on also pay solid dividends. Mehta's list reflects four key themes, including a bullish long-term view of oil, assuming Brent crude will normalize at $75 per barrel. He also sees a more positive tilt on U.S. exploration and production companies in the United States given their valuation risk/reward. The analyst is also positive on the electrification theme and the further capital expenditures by utilities. Lastly, there are underappreciated idiosyncratic stories in some small cap stocks, where he sees an upward basis in the risk/reward skew for shares at current levels. Here are some of the dividend-paying companies that made the cut. Global oil company ConocoPhillips , which has a dividend yield of 2.76%, and oil services provider Halliburton , which yields 1.78%, are beneficiaries of Goldman Sachs' bullish long-term view of oil. ConocoPhillips also remains on Goldman's Americas Conviction List, which are stocks the firm believes are highly likely to outperform the market. As capital spending rolls off and major projects come online, shares should benefit from an inflection in free cash flow, Mehta said. Combine those projects with $1 billion in cost reductions, and ConocoPhillips should deliver a 20% to 25% free-cash-flow per share compound annual growth rate through 2030...

Silicon Valley has been pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into building ever-larger AI data centers that require as much electricity as hundreds of thousands of US homes—but that massive buildout faces significant construction and power challenges along with growing local resistance. Now satellite imagery is showing that nearly 40 percent of US data center projects may fail to be completed this year as scheduled. The Financial Times drew upon satellite imagery from the geospatial data analytics company SynMax showing how much progress has been made in clearing land and laying building foundations for each data center project. It also cross-checked project progress against public statements and permit documents compiled by the industry research group IIR Energy. The resulting analysis revealed how major projects from tech companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, and OpenAI are “likely to miss completion dates by more than three months.” Interviews with more than a dozen industry executives highlighted data center delays caused by “chronic shortages of labor, power and equipment” along with the process of securing the necessary permits, according to the Financial Times. Construction executives involved with OpenAI projects specifically mentioned not having enough tradespeople, such as electricians and pipe fitters, to work on multiple data center projects. Read full article Comments

What's Going On With Microsoft Stock Friday? Benzinga

Prediction market exchanges have created an environment where just about any piece of information is potentially monetizable: How well will BTS's new song perform this week? How hot will Los Angeles get? Will Donald Trump be impeached? Users can wager on all of that and, on some platforms, more gruesome and violent outcomes in the real world. The rapid rise and expansion of Polymarket and Kalshi have put newsrooms in a strange position. Prediction market evangelists often claim that their odds are more trustworthy and accurate than polls and traditional media - effectively positioning the industry as a replacement for news. At the same time … Read the full story at The Verge.

格隆汇4月18日｜美国财政部网站发布新的与苏丹相关的制裁。

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, US, on Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday said current economic conditions are complicating the approach to interest rates, with policymakers facing a potentially long-lasting inflation shock and a labor market with no job growth that nonetheless appears stable. Against that backdrop, Waller said the Fed could have to stay on hold for a prolonged period until the economic direction becomes clearer. "High inflation and a weak labor market would be very complicated for a policymaker," the central banker said for a speech in Alabama. "If I face this situation, I'll have to balance the risks to the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate to determine the appropriate path of policy, and that may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market." The speech comes with markets expecting the Fed to stay on hold this year amid the cloudy economic outlook. For Waller, the speech marked a departure from his previous assessment of the labor market. In recent months he has expressed concern about the low hiring level, but said Friday that evidence is building that the breakeven rate — where the pace of hiring sustains the unemployment rate — may be close to zero. Waller had been a supporter of cutting interest rates, but voted in March to hold the benchmark federal funds level in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. However, he said he still has concern about the labor market. "My sense is that employers are walking a tightrope between their earlier challenges in finding qualified workers and where they think the economy is going, leaving them vulnerable to some economic shock that could tip them over and lead to significant job reductions," he said. As for inflat...

AnthiaCumming/E+ via Getty Images Alcoa ( AA ) fell over 6% in Friday's session after its Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.40 missed estimates by $0.15 and revenue of $3.19 billion came in $80 million below consensus, a 5% decline year-over-year, as lower alumina shipments and pricing weighed on results. In light of this, below is a list of 12 ETFs with exposure to Alcoa, ranked according to their Seeking Alpha Quant Ratings. The list evaluates funds based on quantitative metrics to help identify potential investment opportunities. The list is topped by State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF ( XME ), with a Quant Rating of 4.39. MarketDesk Focused US Momentum ETF ( FMTM ) and First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund ETF ( FXZ ) follow closely behind, each earning Buy ratings. First Trust Active Factor Mid Cap ETF ( AFMC ) rounds out the top four with a rating of 3.77. The funds on this list represent a diverse range of strategies, from basic materials and momentum-focused ETFs to various mid-cap value index funds from providers like Vanguard, iShares and State Street. Ratings on this list range from a high of 4.39 to a low of 2.80, with the Cambria Value and Momentum ETF ( VAMO ) at the bottom of the rankings. Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating system grades funds on their relative performance across critical quantitative measures, including valuation, growth, stock momentum and profitability. Ratings are given on a scale from 1 to 5, with any rating of 3.5 or above considered a bullish rating and any rating of 2.5 or below considered a bearish rating. Here is the list: State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF ( XME ), Quant Rating: 4.39 MarketDesk Focused US Momentum ETF ( FMTM ), Quant Rating: 4.30 First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund ETF ( FXZ ), Quant Rating: 4.14 First Trust Active Factor Mid Cap ETF ( AFMC ), Quant Rating: 3.77 Invesco Dorsey Wright Basic Materials Momentum ETF ( PYZ ), Quant Rating: 3.38 Strategas Macro Momentum ETF ( SAMM ), Quant Rating: 3.24 Euclidean Fundam...

美联储理事沃勒：如果战争导致高通胀和劳动力市场疲软，可能需要维持利率稳定。 中东战争悬而未决的时间越长，通胀和就业风险就越大。 高通胀和疲软的就业市场将对美联储构成挑战。 3月头条PCE通胀率可能同比达到3.5%。 能源价格可能出现的飙升或产生持久的通胀影响。 市场似乎低估了冲突长期化的风险。 将密切关注通胀预期对冲突的反应。 如果战争迅速解决，可以略过能源价格冲击不计。 在经历一系列冲击后，越来越难以略过通胀跳升的影响。 将密切关注就业数据中不断增加的压力迹象。 目前劳动力市场的盈亏平衡增长率可能在零附近。 出现就业负增长的时期可能并不预示着经济衰退。 劳动力市场的变化使得目前的分析更具挑战性。

The recent sell-off in tech stocks has taken even the strongest companies down with it. Big tech continues to see robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI). This is driving growth not just for software, semiconductors, and cloud computing -- it's also driving tremendous investment in land, power, and construction to build data centers. I believe the market is missing the long-term value in the following stocks, making them attractive buys on the dip. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading

格隆汇4月18日｜加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：高能源成本压缩消费者和商业投资。不会让能源价格上涨转化为持续的通胀。

Billionaire investor Chase Coleman built Tiger Global into one of the most influential technology-focused hedge funds in the world, earning a reputation for identifying high-growth digital businesses before they become Wall Street favorites. While Tiger Global has historically focused on disruptive technology and internet platforms, the firm’s latest holdings show continued conviction in companies benefiting ... Billionaire Chase Coleman Is Betting Big on These 4 Growth Stocks

Intel Stock Hits Highest Since 2000 as Turnaround Rally Faces Earnings Test TechStock²

Looking for the most active stocks in the S&P500 index on Friday? ChartMill

Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images By Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq Chief Economist Since late 2024, retail traders have become even more active than they were in the years following the pandemic. At the end of last year, our retail data suggests retail trading reached $70 billion a day as markets rotated out of crypto and software stocks and into value stocks. But in the past few weeks, as the conflict in Iran started, data shows retail trading has fallen significantly. Interestingly, so did the price of gold. Gross trading falls as conflict continues Amid the conflict, exchange-traded fund (ETF) activity has increased, as ETFs are a natural way to play a macro event. However, retail saw reduced ETF activity (yellow line), which fell by around $5 billion per day. Single-stock retail trading tumbled even more - below $35 billion a day. After a ceasefire was put in place on April 8, stock flows rebounded above $40 billion a day. Chart 1: Gross daily retail trading activity in stocks and ETFs over time Notably, retail remained net buyers of ETFs throughout the first quarter of 2026. Overall, retail bought more than $19 billion in ETFs in March and bought over $70 billion in ETFs during the first quarter. However, data shows that retail traders were sellers of single stocks every single day in March. As a result, March saw net selling of over $15 billion - a record for the periods we have data for. Chart 2: Net monthly retail trading activity in stocks and ETFs over time Single-stock sector flows show a change in leadership Looking at single-stock flows by company each month, we see a change in leadership over the years. Initially, Tesla ( TSLA ) was one of the most popular retail stocks, although between 2020 and 2023, Tesla buying and selling tended to follow the direction of the market (buying in up markets, green line, and vice versa). In the past two years, NVIDIA ( NVDA ) has taken over as the most popular and most heavily bought stock. Interestingly, as the conflic...

Key PointsAmazon's artificial intelligence chip business is booming.

格隆汇4月18日｜加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：不希望过早加息，但已意识到相关风险。