franckreporter/iStock via Getty Images Momentum has been the driving factor of the stock market rally we’ve seen since the lows set on March 30 th , 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance As this chart shows, the momentum factor, as expressed in the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF ( MTUM ), has more than doubled the performance of the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) during this time period. ...
franckreporter/iStock via Getty Images Momentum has been the driving factor of the stock market rally we’ve seen since the lows set on March 30 th , 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance As this chart shows, the momentum factor, as expressed in the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF ( MTUM ), has more than doubled the performance of the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) during this time period. However, the breadth has been incredibly narrow, with essentially all the gains being driven by the tech sector and, specifically, semiconductors. Source: Seeking Alpha Despite this, the fundamentals do not support all this exuberance. On the contrary, the fundamentals support expectations for significant downside ahead. With the recent beginnings of a breakdown in markets, in this article, I will argue that it’s time to get off the momentum train, take profits, begin to position defensively, and even consider going short. Background In October of last year, I started to get especially bearish on markets. This culminated in my taking out a short position on NVDA through put options as well as a short position against the S&P 500 through SPDN. As I discussed in this article , I closed these positions on March 27 th and March 31st, respectively, as I began to have the sense that something was shifting in markets. Even though the bearish story was still largely intact from a fundamentals perspective, I had the sense that something was shifting, especially in terms of sentiment, and that I needed to close out this bearish exposure. This turned out to be a very fortunate call as the stock market has simply ripped since then. A few days after closing out these bearish positions, I went long the market through SPY and then QQQ and have been able to participate in the upside that way. However, the thesis for these positions was wholly a momentum-based thesis. As is evident in my articles throughout this period, I have never really wavered on my bearishness from a fundamentals persp...
In early June 2026, Lumentum Holdings agreed to exchange about US$650.4 million of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2028 for roughly 5 million common shares, while Nvidia’s CEO publicly emphasized Lumentum’s role in solving AI data center connectivity bottlenecks and the company committed several hundred million dollars to a new US optical manufacturing facility. This combination of debt-for...
In early June 2026, Lumentum Holdings agreed to exchange about US$650.4 million of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2028 for roughly 5 million common shares, while Nvidia’s CEO publicly emphasized Lumentum’s role in solving AI data center connectivity bottlenecks and the company committed several hundred million dollars to a new US optical manufacturing facility. This combination of debt-for-equity reduction, high-profile AI infrastructure endorsement, and long-term capacity build-out...
Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz breaks down a busy week in SpaceX news, as the aerospace company prepares for an IPO. SpaceX and Google entered into an agreement for cloud services where Google has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month for computing, something Lipschultz says is indicative of the expansion of the scope of work SpaceX is looking to do.
Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz breaks down a busy week in SpaceX news, as the aerospace company prepares for an IPO. SpaceX and Google entered into an agreement for cloud services where Google has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month for computing, something Lipschultz says is indicative of the expansion of the scope of work SpaceX is looking to do.
Welcome back to Canada Daily, the newsletter on business, economics and politics from Vancouver to Montreal and beyond. If this was forwarded to you, sign up . North Americans have a few countdowns going: There are six days until the FIFA World Cup kicks off , 16 days until the summer solstice and 26 days until the July 1 milestone to renew the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. We are not going to...
Welcome back to Canada Daily, the newsletter on business, economics and politics from Vancouver to Montreal and beyond. If this was forwarded to you, sign up . North Americans have a few countdowns going: There are six days until the FIFA World Cup kicks off , 16 days until the summer solstice and 26 days until the July 1 milestone to renew the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. We are not going to meet that last one , Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove and Brian Platt report. The USMCA, signed by President Donald Trump during his first term, has a deadline of July 1 to extend the pact for 16 years, if all countries agree. If that doesn’t happen, and if no party leaves the deal entirely, it remains in place until at least 2036 and enters rolling annual reviews. People close to the process say that’s the most likely scenario, putting Canada and Mexico (and parts of US industry) under an indefinite cloud of uncertainty. Canadian officials are bracing for a scenario in which negotiations drag on for years, perhaps through the end of Trump’s term in 2029. The stakes are huge for the USMCA countries, which do almost $2 trillion in annual trade with each other. In an effort to underscore those stakes, Canadian politicians have spent the past year and a half touting our intertwined economies with all sorts of slogans. The most recent, courtesy of Prime Minister Carney: “ Canada Strong will help make America great again .” Ontario Premier Doug Ford will be in Washington next week pitching “Fortress North America,” according to a statement from his office. Pithy phrases aside, we do have data showing the power of an integrated North America: today’s strong jobs numbers. Hiring in leisure and hospitality helped fuel a surge in hiring in the US and Canada last month as the two nations prepared to host a certain soccer tournament. The US hospitality industry added the most jobs in more than three years, and Canada reported an employment increase by 87,800 in the biggest leap since the mo...
The deadline to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is coming up a week from now on June 12th, and legislators seem no closer to reaching a deal. If this sounds like deja vu, it's because we've been here before. Congress reauthorized Section 702 in late April - but only for 45 days, so lawmakers could negotiate reforms to the controversial wiretapping authority. "T...
The deadline to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is coming up a week from now on June 12th, and legislators seem no closer to reaching a deal. If this sounds like deja vu, it's because we've been here before. Congress reauthorized Section 702 in late April - but only for 45 days, so lawmakers could negotiate reforms to the controversial wiretapping authority. "There were no reformers in any of the conversations that happened. Full stop," Sean Vitka, the executive director of Demand Progress, said on a press call Friday afternoon, hours after the Senate voted 52 to 47 against a deal that would have renewed … Read the full story at The Verge.
Alphabet stock sinks on company’s plans of raising $85 billion in fresh equity. But long-term investors have ample reasons to load up on GOOGL shares today.
Alphabet stock sinks on company’s plans of raising $85 billion in fresh equity. But long-term investors have ample reasons to load up on GOOGL shares today.
The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool is refilling after President Trump had it painted "American flag blue." Some visitors say the results of the project — which reportedly cost millions — are subtle. (Image credit: Rahmat Gul)
The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool is refilling after President Trump had it painted "American flag blue." Some visitors say the results of the project — which reportedly cost millions — are subtle. (Image credit: Rahmat Gul)
Management says it has fundamentally altered the memory industry's historical cyclicality, and equity markets are assigning a premium valuation to this strategic shift.
Management says it has fundamentally altered the memory industry's historical cyclicality, and equity markets are assigning a premium valuation to this strategic shift.
Photography By Tonelson/iStock via Getty Images Stock sinking. Analysts pointing one way, SA Quant another—a mess. That's the state of the Shake Shack Inc. ( SHAK ) thesis—and most fast-casuals out there—in the middle of fast-food value promotions. Portillo's ( PTLO ), Chipotle ( CMG ), Wingstop ( WING ), and Sweetgreen ( SG ). You can pick one. They're all red in FY 2026 so far. As a longtime rea...
Photography By Tonelson/iStock via Getty Images Stock sinking. Analysts pointing one way, SA Quant another—a mess. That's the state of the Shake Shack Inc. ( SHAK ) thesis—and most fast-casuals out there—in the middle of fast-food value promotions. Portillo's ( PTLO ), Chipotle ( CMG ), Wingstop ( WING ), and Sweetgreen ( SG ). You can pick one. They're all red in FY 2026 so far. As a longtime reader of Danny Meyer (founder and Chairman of Shake Shack), I keep wondering: "Did Shake Shack lose Enlightened Hospitality along the way? Or is the value gap simply too high?" I say this because you just have to walk into a Shake Shack and you'll notice. Sure, delicious smash burgers and all that, but every time you go out to dinner with your family of three, you'll spend at least ~$50 (an average check of ~$15 to $20, which can be even more if you choose LTOs and shakes). Compare that to a McDonald's ( MCD ) or Chick-fil-A and you'll see there's a gap of ~$20 or more. It's basically the same flaw as Wingstop when KFC ( YUM ) and almost every QSR Burger now have their own line of fried chicken with various sauces and everything else. And this gap becomes even more obvious when chains arrive in the suburbs. But let's take it easy here. Before getting to the part I know you're waiting for and me telling you my take on the valuation (including sell-sides like Jefferies cutting their price target by ~20%), let's get to "Setting the Table," as Meyer says. Jefferies took a similar view, saying first-quarter EBITDA missed expectations as restaurant-level margins and G&A weighed on results. The firm said April same-store sales fell 0.6%, but May-to-date sales improved 8%, helped by the summer BBQ menu. The analysts said the setup still requires “add’l consistency in a tough backdrop,” while leaving their rating at Hold and cutting the price target to $76 from $95. Menu Strategy: Present and Future Did value meals kill the Smashburger star? I simply loved that headline that SA used. ...
Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz breaks down a busy week in SpaceX news, as the aerospace company prepares for an IPO. SpaceX and Google entered into an agreement for cloud services where Google has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month for computing, something Lipschultz says is indicative of the expansion of the scope of work SpaceX is looking to do. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz breaks down a busy week in SpaceX news, as the aerospace company prepares for an IPO. SpaceX and Google entered into an agreement for cloud services where Google has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month for computing, something Lipschultz says is indicative of the expansion of the scope of work SpaceX is looking to do. (Source: Bloomberg)