Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Thesis The big story this year has been the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices and brought back the specter of inflation . The rates markets have responded handily, pricing out any Fed cuts this year and moving the entire yield curve higher. This move has helped the battered floating rate leveraged loan asset class, which had seen significant outflows in t...
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Thesis The big story this year has been the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices and brought back the specter of inflation . The rates markets have responded handily, pricing out any Fed cuts this year and moving the entire yield curve higher. This move has helped the battered floating rate leveraged loan asset class, which had seen significant outflows in the past year. One of our holdings, the Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund ( JFR ), falls into this category. We added this name last year, after a massive evisceration of leveraged loan CEFs when market participants started pricing in Fed cuts: Prior Rating (Seeking Alpha) The trade did really well initially as the market rebounded from oversold conditions but has produced a more neutral result long-term given the actual cuts implemented by the Fed. We can see the vicious rebound after our rating (which marked an interim bottom) and the total return of roughly 7.7% since we assigned the prior Seeking Alpha rating. In today's article we are going to show readers why we are downgrading the CEF now given peak fear regarding rates. As the Iran war gets solved (one way or another), the market will start repricing Fed cuts, and outflows from leveraged loans will resume. We are now moving the fund to 'Hold' since we do not find the name presenting an attractive entry point anymore, but we will continue to hold it as a building block of our portfolio. What Does JFR Do? It Holds Leveraged Loans While investors are reading about the travails of private credit every day, nobody mentions leveraged loans. Private credit and leveraged loans are siblings, with private credit representing direct lending to a client (often floating rate), while leveraged loans are the syndicated version of the same lending action. 'Syndicated' simply means there are several banks that do the lending and then sell the debt in the secondary markets. This translates into better visibility into the respective cre...
Ambev S.A. ( ABEV ) fell in Thursday afternoon trading after UBS lowered its rating to Sell from Neutral on valuation concerns Analyst Rodrigo Alcantara and his team see the risk/reward on Ambev ( ABEV ) as skewed to the downside following a +32% rally over the past six months and pointed to a growing disconnect between its earnings growth profile, Brazil's cost of capital, and valuation. "Our bas...
Ambev S.A. ( ABEV ) fell in Thursday afternoon trading after UBS lowered its rating to Sell from Neutral on valuation concerns Analyst Rodrigo Alcantara and his team see the risk/reward on Ambev ( ABEV ) as skewed to the downside following a +32% rally over the past six months and pointed to a growing disconnect between its earnings growth profile, Brazil's cost of capital, and valuation. "Our base case points to flat EPS growth in 2026 and a ~5% CAGR over the next five years. We see two key risks of disappointment in 2026–27. First, the macro backdrop in Brazil and global commodities may weigh on EBITDA growth/ Second, capital returns may again fall short of investor expectations, given the company's reluctance to lever its balance sheet," warned Alcantara. Due to those factors, UBS sees a risk of a de-rating in valuation multiples over the coming quarters. Shares of Ambev ( ABEV ) were down 2.6% to $3.05 at 1:20 p.m. vs. the 52-week range of $2.10 to $3.24. The Seeking Alpha Quant rating on the Brazilian brewing stock is still flashing Buy. More on Ambev Ambev: Let's Cheers To More Upside Ambev: 2026 World Cup And Brazil's Rate Cuts Create A Powerful Recovery Setup Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Petrobras continues to lead iShares MSCI Brazil ETF top holdings with Strong Buy rating Ambev Non-GAAP EPS of R$0.28 in-line, revenue of R$24.81B beats by R$210M; initiates FY26 outlook
In Sri Lanka, Buddhists and Hindus marked their New Year on Tuesday while a war thousands of miles away is making itself felt. (Image credit: Sanka Vidanagama)
In Sri Lanka, Buddhists and Hindus marked their New Year on Tuesday while a war thousands of miles away is making itself felt. (Image credit: Sanka Vidanagama)
May WTI crude oil (CLK26 ) today is up +2.40 (+2.63%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26 ) is up +0.0655 (+2.13%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Wednesday, with crude falling to a 3-week low. Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today as the US naval...
May WTI crude oil (CLK26 ) today is up +2.40 (+2.63%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26 ) is up +0.0655 (+2.13%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Wednesday, with crude falling to a 3-week low. Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today as the US naval...
Maks_Lab Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is urging policymakers to prepare contingency measures to stabilize the government bond market in the event of a sudden drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, warning such a scenario could trigger severe financial disruption. Paulson emphasized the importance of having a rapid-response plan ready to deploy if market conditions deteriorate. Unlike ...
Maks_Lab Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is urging policymakers to prepare contingency measures to stabilize the government bond market in the event of a sudden drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, warning such a scenario could trigger severe financial disruption. Paulson emphasized the importance of having a rapid-response plan ready to deploy if market conditions deteriorate. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, he noted, today’s risks are tied more directly to the scale of federal debt and the government’s ongoing financing needs. He cautioned that a breakdown in the roughly $31 trillion Treasury market could create a dangerous feedback loop. As investors demand higher yields to compensate for rising fiscal risks, borrowing costs would climb, further expanding budget deficits and increasing the government’s reliance on debt issuance. In a worst-case scenario, Paulson suggested the Federal Reserve could become the primary buyer of government debt if private demand weakens significantly—an outcome that could drive bond prices lower and push interest rates higher. While the timing of such stress is uncertain, Paulson warned that the consequences could be abrupt and severe, underscoring the need for proactive planning. See how yields are trading across the curve: U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield ( US2Y ) trades at 3.78%. U.S. 5 Year Treasury yield ( US5Y ) trades at 3.92%. U.S. 7 Year Treasury yield ( US7Y ) trades at 4.11%. U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) trades at 4.31%. U.S. 20 Year Treasury yield ( US20Y ) trades at 4.91%. U.S. 30 Year Treasury yield ( US30Y ) trades at 4.94%. Fixed Income ETFs: ( TLT ), ( TLH ), ( IEF ), ( IEI ), ( SHY ), ( SGOV ), ( SCHO ), ( BIL ), ( AGG ), ( BND ), ( VCIT ), ( MUB ), ( MBB ), ( JNK ), ( LQD ), ( HYG ), ( VTIP ), ( TIP ), ( SCHP ), ( STIP ), ( TIPX ), ( SPIP ), ( WIP ), ( GTIP ), ( LQDI ), and ( RINF ). More on markets Narrow tech rally powers market higher despite weak breadth Artificial Intelligence boom redefines c...
bigtunaonline/iStock via Getty Images Since the conflict in the Middle East began, auto suppliers have underperformed the S&P by an average of 10%. As one of the hardest hit (down 15% relative to the S&P 500), and with fiscal Q2 results likely to beat estimates, Citi Research sees a buying opportunity in Adient ( ADNT ), upgrading the stock to Buy from Neutral and raising the target price by 10% t...
bigtunaonline/iStock via Getty Images Since the conflict in the Middle East began, auto suppliers have underperformed the S&P by an average of 10%. As one of the hardest hit (down 15% relative to the S&P 500), and with fiscal Q2 results likely to beat estimates, Citi Research sees a buying opportunity in Adient ( ADNT ), upgrading the stock to Buy from Neutral and raising the target price by 10% to $33. Adient ( ADNT ), which supplies seating systems for the Ford ( F ) F-series, should benefit from a predicted 10% increase in production of the model as Ford ( F ) replenishes its depleted inventory after the Novelis fire. Moreover, Citi Research analyst Michael Ward expects Adient ( ADNT ) to be best positioned to benefit from the increased demand of “People Carriers” (family sedans, minivans, SUVs, and CUVs) as the Millennials and Gen Zers move into the prime age group for the auto sector. “Higher industry production and cost improvements lead to revenue and margin improvement in the second half and into 2027. In our view, improving margins and cash generation are the two most important metrics for ADNT,” Ward notes. Ward believes the impact of the Millennial and Gen Z generations on the U.S. auto industry will be greater than the impact of the Baby Boomers in the 1980s. This suggests a “wave of demand” over the next 5-10 years as these segments (~127M people) move into the prime demographic for vehicle ownership. Ward notes the ADNT has among the highest leverage to the “People Carrier” segment with exposure on key models for GM ( GM ), Toyota ( TM ), and Hyundai/Kia, which account for 45% of the overall “People Carrier” segment. While near-term results will continue to reflect lower F-series production, Ward expects improvement in ADNT’s results in the second half of the year based on higher production of key North American models and the benefits of cost actions, with further gains seen in 2027. More on Adient Adient plc (ADNT) Presents at Wolfe Research Auto, Au...
PepsiCo shares rallied Thursday after the beverage and snack giant indicated that new products and recent price cuts had brought back wary customers, while noting that it hadn’t taken much of a hit yet from the Iran war.
PepsiCo shares rallied Thursday after the beverage and snack giant indicated that new products and recent price cuts had brought back wary customers, while noting that it hadn’t taken much of a hit yet from the Iran war.
The best dividend stocks offer investor stability even when the market sentiment turns bearish. Moreover, as the dividend yield and stock price are inversely related, you can identify fundamentally strong companies that have pulled back to benefit from an elevated payout. United Parcel ...
The best dividend stocks offer investor stability even when the market sentiment turns bearish. Moreover, as the dividend yield and stock price are inversely related, you can identify fundamentally strong companies that have pulled back to benefit from an elevated payout. United Parcel ...
Over the last week, we have seen many of the beaten down software giants come back to life. Some of you may have dabbled in them multiple times, riding the daily waves of volatility. To those of you that have, I salute you. We have shared ideas concerning the highly volatile software sector with Pro subscribers with some success, so why not stick with what's working. We have talked about how to tr...
Over the last week, we have seen many of the beaten down software giants come back to life. Some of you may have dabbled in them multiple times, riding the daily waves of volatility. To those of you that have, I salute you. We have shared ideas concerning the highly volatile software sector with Pro subscribers with some success, so why not stick with what's working. We have talked about how to trade the falling knife in the overall sector – the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) . Then, after a much needed relief rally, we pivoted to a short idea in AppLovin (APP) that provided an optimal risk/reward entry. Today, we go the other way and look at a long idea that still has momentum and a good risk/reward setup: Oracle (ORCL) . The stock has rallied 29% week to date; we clearly missed the low. However, for the swing trader and even that longer-term trader waiting for a safer entry point we think we found it. The setup The stock had dropped 60% from its September peak. It had several quick but unsustainable rallies along its precipitous decline. Each one failed to sustain momentum or clear its 50-day moving average — until now. Shares have finally formed a formidable bottom at the $135 level. There were signs the bottom was starting to form when a bullish divergence in its relative strength index, or RSI, started taking shape on its last decline. As shares retested its lows, the RSI made a higher low. Most importantly, it broke its downtrend with some gusto. The rally off the lows with strong volume saw the price jump above its 50-day moving average. It gapped higher again to confirm the breakout and provides us with great areas of support and resistance so we can trade with a tad more clarity. The trade Do we chase? That's the question traders keep debating and the answer is yes. The biggest rallies occur under the 200-day moving average and we are in the midst of one now. Look for shares to continue their climb, maybe not at this precipitous pace, but c...
Olemedia GitLab ( GTLB ) received a Neutral rating at UBS on Thursday, as the investment firm said it sees the DevOps company with a “difficult AI narrative” and a “mixed demand outlook.” “After speaking with 10 checks we assume coverage of GitLab with a Neutral rating,” analyst Radi Sultan wrote in a note to clients. “Overall our check feedback suggested a mixed demand outlook with no evidence of...
Olemedia GitLab ( GTLB ) received a Neutral rating at UBS on Thursday, as the investment firm said it sees the DevOps company with a “difficult AI narrative” and a “mixed demand outlook.” “After speaking with 10 checks we assume coverage of GitLab with a Neutral rating,” analyst Radi Sultan wrote in a note to clients. “Overall our check feedback suggested a mixed demand outlook with no evidence of a growth inflection and only modest customer interest in Duo Agent Platform (DAP) to date. While the headline risk around AI disruption will likely remain high, the near-term fundamental risk here looks more modest as we heard stable, not declining, developer seats and customer appetite to replace GitLab sounded low in the near-term. Our work supports our FY27-29 revs growth estimates of 17%/15%/14%, respectively versus the Street’s 16%/16%/14% and with the stock at 1.8x/9x CY27 Revs/FCF and sentiment already negative we don’t see much downside from here. However, without a clear path to AI-driven upward estimate revisions we think the AI disruption narrative will be tough to bend in the near-term and prefer to remain on the sidelines for now.” In addition to the Neutral rating, Sultan lowered his price target on GitLab to $24 from $44. More on GitLab GitLab: Finally Time For A Bullish Stance GitLab: Growth Is Slowing, But Cheap Enough To Keep Buying GitLab Inc. 2026 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Stocks to watch after market on Tuesday: GTLB, NKE, BEAT GitLab jumps amid Google Cloud collaboration expansion
Famed investor Michael Burry is wading back into beaten-down software stocks, betting the recent sell-off was driven more by technical factors than deteriorating business fundamentals. The "Big Short" investor said in a Wednesday Substack post that a "reflexive positive feedback loop" between falling equity prices and stress in bank debt tied to software companies helped accelerate their declines,...
Famed investor Michael Burry is wading back into beaten-down software stocks, betting the recent sell-off was driven more by technical factors than deteriorating business fundamentals. The "Big Short" investor said in a Wednesday Substack post that a "reflexive positive feedback loop" between falling equity prices and stress in bank debt tied to software companies helped accelerate their declines, creating what he sees now as a buying opportunity. "I do not believe the technical pressures brought on by the private credit/software debt issues are big enough to affect these stocks for much longer," he wrote. The move back into the stocks comes as fears mount that artificial intelligence could upend large portions of the software industry, challenging business models and long-held growth assumptions. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF , for example, has slumped about 28% from its September peak, pushing the group into a bear market and highlighting how quickly sentiment has soured on what had been one of Wall Street's favorite sectors. IGV 1Y mountain iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF one year Burry disclosed he opened a roughly 3.5% position in PayPal, while maintaining holdings in Fiserv , Adobe , Autodesk and Veeva Systems . He said he planned to add positions in Salesforce and MSCI early Thursday. None of these companies rely on private credit markets, Burry said. Retail investors have been pulling money from a group of private credit funds for the past couple months, and many of the loans were tied to software companies. "I do see several handfuls of companies seriously affected by advanced [large language models] for specific reasons of the business models," Burry said. "I do not see this for my selected companies and a good number of others, all of which I have just about finished analyzing forensically, competitively, and fundamentally as to investment potential."
Docusign's steady growth, global expansion, and recurring revenue model boost its outlook, but liquidity concerns and rising competition keep DOCU in Hold territory.
Docusign's steady growth, global expansion, and recurring revenue model boost its outlook, but liquidity concerns and rising competition keep DOCU in Hold territory.