jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Alcoa ( AA ) has been on a tear YTD, up nearly 45% at the time of writing, with much of the gain coming in just the last few weeks. The stock has been fueled by better aluminum prices on the back of low inventories and production constraints in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are now at an ominous level rivaling the 2022 highs, which creates an inter...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Alcoa ( AA ) has been on a tear YTD, up nearly 45% at the time of writing, with much of the gain coming in just the last few weeks. The stock has been fueled by better aluminum prices on the back of low inventories and production constraints in the Middle East. Aluminum prices are now at an ominous level rivaling the 2022 highs, which creates an interesting setup for AA stock today. While I don't think it's a good time to be making an argument about a structurally different valuation, which would warrant a higher multiple, I see the stock as capable of beating street estimates this year handily. The velocity of the price movement in aluminum recently, however, is what causes me to downgrade this to a hold. A Global Aluminum Leader It's been quite some time since I publicly wrote about Alcoa. My last piece on the company was in June of 2017, Alcoa: A Buy Below $30? , when I had a buy rating on the stock and it was trading under $30/share. Nine years later, with a 201% total return on the stock, the same market leader in aluminum we knew then remains top of mind today. As a refresher, Alcoa is a global leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, operating mines, refineries, and smelters across the world. The company has 25 locations across 8 countries. The company in 2025 produced 38 mdmt of bauxite, 10 mmt of alumina, and 2.3 mmt of aluminum. The company produces aluminum for a wide variety of end markets globally. These range from transportation, construction, and electrical packaging to aerospace and industrial. Approximately 65% of the company's revenue comes from aluminum, while 35% comes from alumina. It should be noted that alumina carries a higher segment EBITDA margin (2025: 19.8%) that is at a considerable premium to aluminum (2025: 12.7%). The price of Aluminum has simply gone parabolic in 2026, due to a few factors. The price is now brushing up against the 2022 high, which is an interesting prospect for the stoc...
Gas engine manufacturer Innio Holding GmbH ’s biggest shareholders raised $2.43 billion in an upsized initial public offering that priced at the top of the range. The Munich-based company sold 90 million shares for $27 each, according to a statement Wednesday. The company had marketed 75 million shares for $24 to $27 each on behalf of private equity firm Advent and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authori...
Gas engine manufacturer Innio Holding GmbH ’s biggest shareholders raised $2.43 billion in an upsized initial public offering that priced at the top of the range. The Munich-based company sold 90 million shares for $27 each, according to a statement Wednesday. The company had marketed 75 million shares for $24 to $27 each on behalf of private equity firm Advent and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority . At the IPO price, Innio has a market value of about $20.7 billion, based on the outstanding shares listed in its filings. The offering attracted demand for a double-digit multiple of the number of available shares, Bloomberg News reported earlier. Innio sells engines under the brands Jenbacher and Waukesha, and offers an AI-powered software platform for power plants called Myplant, according to its website . The company has production hubs in Austria, Canada and the US, its filing shows. The company’s five largest customers accounted for about 39% of its revenue in the first three months of 2026. Innio reported a net loss of $9 million on revenue of $668.6 million in the first quarter compared to net income of $35 million on revenue of $494 million in the same period the year before, the filing shows. Innio is joining several other industrial firms going public this year, tapping interest from investors searching for companies that benefit from the artificial intelligence boom. For the latest news on equity capital markets activity in the US, Canada and Latin America, terminal users can follow the channel or visit NI BFWECMUS . To subscribe to ECM Watch , Bloomberg’s daily roundup of news from around the region, click here . In April, Madison Air Solutions Corp. , a ventilation and filtration systems firm, raised $2.57 billion in the biggest US industrial-sector IPO since 1999, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A February listing by fellow power equipment maker Forgent Power Solutions Inc. raised $1.74 billion. Advent bought Innio, which was previously General Electric ...
sefa ozel/iStock via Getty Images Gulfport Energy's ( GPOR ) Q1 2026 results were in line with expectations. Production declined by 9% compared to Q4 2025, but it expects a significant bounce back (and a higher liquids percentage) in 2H 2026 based on the timing of wells coming online. I now estimate that Gulfport will generate $511 million in 2026 free cash flow at current strip prices. A $5 incre...
sefa ozel/iStock via Getty Images Gulfport Energy's ( GPOR ) Q1 2026 results were in line with expectations. Production declined by 9% compared to Q4 2025, but it expects a significant bounce back (and a higher liquids percentage) in 2H 2026 based on the timing of wells coming online. I now estimate that Gulfport will generate $511 million in 2026 free cash flow at current strip prices. A $5 increase to my long-term oil price helps slightly improve its estimated value to $177 to $193 per share (up $5 per share from before ). Thus, I believe it is modestly undervalued now. I also believe that its significant Q1 2026 share repurchases were done at a slightly high average price, but any share repurchases done at its current share price should add a bit of value. Management Changes Gulfport's former President and CEO, John Reinhart, suddenly resigned (effective immediately) in early March. There were no specific details about what prompted that, other than a standard message about how his resignation "was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies, or practices." While that was unsettling, Gulfport has bounced back with the hiring of former Expand/Chesapeake President and CEO Nick Dell'Osso. He is well-regarded and experienced, having led a company that had 4,183 MMCFE per day in 2025 Appalachian production alone. This is around four times Gulfport's production without taking into consideration Expand's Haynesville production. Q1 2026 Results Gulfport averaged 996.8 MMCFE per day (9% liquids) in Q1 2026 production. This was a 9% decrease compared to its Q4 2025 production, but that decrease was also in line with expectations. The timing of wells coming online and the effects of Winter Storm Fern contributed to the lower production in the quarter. Gulfport expects its production to trend a bit lower in Q2 2026 before rebounding in the second half of the year, with Q4 2026 potentially averaging around 1...