Market Bets Soar That Fed Will Cut Rates To 2% In 2027 Concerns about rising inflation, and the Fed hiking rates to contain it, have reversed rather dramatically. As Bloomberg's Edward Bolingbroke observes, after months of consensus trades that the Fed's easing cycle will end in 2026, traders in US futures and options markets are suddenly piling on bets that the Fed will continue cutting rates wel...
Market Bets Soar That Fed Will Cut Rates To 2% In 2027 Concerns about rising inflation, and the Fed hiking rates to contain it, have reversed rather dramatically. As Bloomberg's Edward Bolingbroke observes, after months of consensus trades that the Fed's easing cycle will end in 2026, traders in US futures and options markets are suddenly piling on bets that the Fed will continue cutting rates well into next year instead of raising them. As shown below, the key spread linked to the SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) which track expected Fed policy, have becoming deeply inverted in the past week, a sign that traders are starting to price a more prolonged easing cycle. The 12-month December 2026 to 2027 SOFR spread dropped into negative on Friday with the inversion deepening on Tuesday to minus 8 basis points, in a sign that investors have flipped from pricing hikes in 2027 to pricing cuts. In the SOFR options market a similar dovish theme is observed for trades that are hedging (or encouraging, depending on how one views the role of options) the prospect of multiple rate cuts this year. Those trades picked-up again on Tuesday with one position that’s looking to hedge for the policy rate falling to as low as 2% by the end of the year growing in size. Open interest in the December 98.00 calls ballooned to more than 400,000 this week. A record amount of just over 150,000 calls traded in the 12-month spread over Monday’s session, while the total open interest of SOFR Dec26 98.00 calls soared above 400,000 amid the trading frenzy. For context, the swaps market is currently pricing a Fed rate of around 3.1% - or just over two 25-basis point cuts - by year-end, some 110 basis points above the options strike price. Until mid-February, traders were betting that the central bank would resume hiking rates in 2027 after two quarter-point reductions by the end of this year. However, the ongoing wipeout of Software stocks and the growing debate around the impact of artifi...
(RTTNews) - The FTSE 100 benchmark of the London Stock Exchange rebounded emphatically on Wednesday to touch a fresh record. The rally was supported by gains in banking and mining scrips. The index touched an all-time-high of 10,788.55 on Wednesday amidst easing tensions about AI
(RTTNews) - The FTSE 100 benchmark of the London Stock Exchange rebounded emphatically on Wednesday to touch a fresh record. The rally was supported by gains in banking and mining scrips. The index touched an all-time-high of 10,788.55 on Wednesday amidst easing tensions about AI
Quansah left Ghana for Ajax as a boy but injury ended his career before it started. He now earns £5 a day as a builder and strives to find a new purpose in life By The Blizzard John Quansah looks at a glass display case hanging on the wall of his living room in Obuasi, Ghana. Inside are three trophies from his days as a youth player at Ajax. For years, they lay tucked away in the back of a cupboar...
Quansah left Ghana for Ajax as a boy but injury ended his career before it started. He now earns £5 a day as a builder and strives to find a new purpose in life By The Blizzard John Quansah looks at a glass display case hanging on the wall of his living room in Obuasi, Ghana. Inside are three trophies from his days as a youth player at Ajax. For years, they lay tucked away in the back of a cupboard, but two years ago, that changed. “I’m an adult now,” John says. “It’s time to look at the past differently. When I look at the trophies now, I don’t just feel pain. I am grateful too – for those beautiful years.” Of course, he didn’t fulfil his big dream. But not everyone can say they have played for Ajax. He has every reason to be proud, to look back at that time with satisfaction. During a move, he finds the trophies again and decides to mount a display case on the wall of his new living room. Inside, he places three trophies. One for the best player at a youth tournament in Belgium. Next to that, one from another competition, and one he received for sportsmanship, also awarded in Belgium. Continue reading...
Nestlé SA has revamped its bonus plan with the payout cap lifted for top performers and underachievers likely to receive significantly reduced payments or none at all this fiscal year. The Swiss food group, which is in the midst of overhauling its culture to focus on performance, is introducing six rankings for its 271,000 employees to determine payouts, compared with three levels previously. Empl...
Nestlé SA has revamped its bonus plan with the payout cap lifted for top performers and underachievers likely to receive significantly reduced payments or none at all this fiscal year. The Swiss food group, which is in the midst of overhauling its culture to focus on performance, is introducing six rankings for its 271,000 employees to determine payouts, compared with three levels previously. Employees dubbed “exemplary,” the highest level, will be eligible for a payout of as much as 150% of the bonus target, up from a previous limit of 130%. Those at the lowest “unsatisfactory” ranking will receive no bonus at all or at most 50% of the target, according to people familiar with knowledge of the matter. The move is a major shift for a company once known for its staid culture. In the past, almost all workers usually received at least 80% bonus payouts, even those meeting just the minimum requirements, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal company matters. A Nestlé spokesperson confirmed the new bonus system and said: “The idea behind the whole framework is to really develop people. We also want to change how people behave.” Philipp Navratil , the recently appointed chief executive officer, said not long after taking the top job in September that he wanted to bring back ambition and growth to a company whose sales have been lackluster for years. He said everyone in the business, including himself, would be judged by the same metrics. “It will be easy to see who is performing and who’s not,” he said at the time. “We will be ruthless in assessing our people.” Read More: Nestlé’s New CEO Arrives With Fighting Talk and 16,000 Job Cuts Last week, Nestlé forecast sales and profit growth this year, even as it continues to battle volatile consumer demand, falling volumes, bloated costs and the largest infant formula recall in its history. Navratil said then that real internal growth — a key measure of volumes closely watched by analysts and investors...
Circle Internet Group Inc. ’s profit and revenue increased more than estimated while the amount of its USDC stablecoin in circulation jumped 72% to $75.3 billion in the fourth quarter. Revenue rose 77% to $770 million from the year-earlier period, the New York-based company said in a statement Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected $747 million. Net income was $133 million, or 43 ce...
Circle Internet Group Inc. ’s profit and revenue increased more than estimated while the amount of its USDC stablecoin in circulation jumped 72% to $75.3 billion in the fourth quarter. Revenue rose 77% to $770 million from the year-earlier period, the New York-based company said in a statement Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected $747 million. Net income was $133 million, or 43 cents a share. Adjusted earnings were $167 million, beating consensus estimates of $129.7 million. The company’s shares rose about 12% in pre-market trading. While revenue and the amount of the USDC stablecoin in circulation increased from the year-earlier period, the company said Wednesday that its reserve return rate was 3.8% in the quarter ended Dec. 31. Circle earns most of its profit from the interest paid on US government securities that it holds in reserves to back its stablecoin. Circle is investing in projects to diversify its sources of revenue. In 2026, the company projects earning between $150 and $170 million in non-interest revenue. Analysts had an estimate of $145.2 million. Circle projected that USDC in circulation with grow 40% over a multi-year cycle. The company has revenue sharing agreements with distribution partners like Coinbase Global Inc. to boost adoption of its coin. Coinbase offers its customers rewards on USDC balances held on its platform. In 2026, Circle expects its revenue less distribution costs margin to hit 38-40%. Circle went public in June and its share price skyrocketed as the exuberance surrounding stablecoins, digital assets typically designed to track the value of US dollars one-for-one, was rapidly building ahead of the signing of the first federal regulatory framework for the tokens in July. Circle’s listing helped its founder, Jeremy Allaire, achieve billionaire-status and was heralded as an opportunity for other digital asset firms to follow in their footsteps. After Circle’s listing, crypto exchange Bullish went public on the NYSE...
National Bank of Canada beat analyst estimates in its fiscal first quarter after it reported stronger results across the board, boosted by the bank’s purchase of Canadian Western Bank . The Montreal-based lender earned C$3.25 a share on an adjusted basis in the three months through January, ahead of the C$2.95 expected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. National Bank’s personal and commercial bank...
National Bank of Canada beat analyst estimates in its fiscal first quarter after it reported stronger results across the board, boosted by the bank’s purchase of Canadian Western Bank . The Montreal-based lender earned C$3.25 a share on an adjusted basis in the three months through January, ahead of the C$2.95 expected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. National Bank’s personal and commercial banking net income grew 47% from a year earlier to C$427 million ($312 million), with the firm’s recent acquisition of Canadian Western Bank contributing double-digit gains to revenues. Its capital markets segment posted net income of C$443 million, up 6% from a year ago and more than the C$411 million analysts predicted. National Bank closed its acquisition of Canadian Western Bank last February. “The first quarter marks a strong start to the year for the bank, driven by our diversified and complementary franchises, as well as our prudent approach to capital and credit,” Chief Executive Officer Laurent Ferreira said in a Wednesday statement. The bank said it plans to return more capital to shareholders, announcing an amendment to its stock buyback program Wednesday and saying it now plans to repurchase as many as 3.7% of its common shares outstanding, up from the previous level of 2.04%. The firm set aside C$244 million in provisions for credit losses during the quarter, in line with the C$245 million Bloomberg analysts expected. In December, National Bank agreed to acquire Laurentian Bank of Canada ’s retail banking and small-business assets and liabilities when the small Canadian lender struck a deal to sell the rest of its business to Fairstone Bank.