Maximusnd/iStock via Getty Images Market Review The municipal bond market extended its rally in the fourth quarter, outperforming U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, supported by relatively favorable technicals and two additional 25 bp Fed rate cuts. Despite two consecutive quarters of strength, municipal bonds trailed other fixed income sectors for the full year. On the supply side, new issuance...
Maximusnd/iStock via Getty Images Market Review The municipal bond market extended its rally in the fourth quarter, outperforming U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, supported by relatively favorable technicals and two additional 25 bp Fed rate cuts. Despite two consecutive quarters of strength, municipal bonds trailed other fixed income sectors for the full year. On the supply side, new issuance accelerated in November and December after a soft October, bringing total 4Q25 issuance to $141 billion, up 12.5% from 4Q24, according to the Bond Buyer. Full-year supply set another new annual record of $580 billion, up 12.9% year over year, driven in part by front-running tax policy uncertainties, higher cost of capital expenditure due to higher inflation, and waning of pandemic-related funds. Taxable municipal issuance remained low at $33 billion in 2025, down 12.4% year over year. In 4Q25, investor demand remained robust and municipal funds saw strong inflows, especially into municipal ETFs. Per Investment Company Institute data, municipal open-ended mutual funds had net inflows of $13 billion, while ETFs gained $45 billion for the whole year 2025. During the fourth quarter, the municipal yield curve twisted flatter, with yields from two- to five-year maturities increasing 8 to 19 bps, while yields from ten-to-thirty years decreased 8 to 27 bps. To the contrary, the treasury yield curve twisted steeper, with yields from one-to-three-year maturities decreasing 1 to 14 bps, while yields from five-to-thirty years increased 5 to 14 bps. As a result, the Muni-Treasury ratio, a key gauge of relative value, cheapened in the short 2-5-year maturity range while richening in the 10-30-year part. The 2-year AAA Muni-to-Treasury ratio increased to 70% from 62%, while the 10-year ratio decreased to 65% from 70% and the 30Y ratio decreased to 85% from 89%, which were at richer side of fair value. In 4Q25, shorter duration municipal bonds underperformed their intermediate and longer ...
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with members of Congress as he departs following his State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Feb. 24, 2026. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump avoided directly naming China in his State of the Union address Tuesday, just weeks before his scheduled trip to Beiji...
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with members of Congress as he departs following his State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Feb. 24, 2026. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump avoided directly naming China in his State of the Union address Tuesday, just weeks before his scheduled trip to Beijing. In what was the longest State of the Union (SOTU) speech by any U.S. president, Trump covered a range of topics from inflation and tariffs to stock market records. But notably, he did not directly mention China, other than a reference to "Russian and Chinese military technology" that guarded Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during the operation that led to the capture of the foreign leader. During Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, he made direct references to the Chinese nation in all three of his State of the Union addresses. The remarks had largely highlighted the threat from Beijing to the U.S. "Trump doesn't want to pick a fight with China in an election year," said Gabriel Wildau, managing director, Teneo, referring to the coming U.S. midterm elections in November. "Stability in U.S.-China relations is a priority for the president at least this year and potentially for the rest of his term," Wildau said. In order to maintain that relationship, Trump plans to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2, the first trip by a U.S. president since 2017. But China's foreign ministry has yet to confirm exact dates for the visit, pointed out George Chen, partner at The Asia Group. "That makes Trump look more desperate to visit China more than how much [Chinese president Xi Jinping] wants to host him." "The lack of mentions about China in Trump's speech is another example to show how Trump stays cautious now about U.S.-China relations," Chen said. watch now VIDEO 3:20 03:20 Pres. Trump addresses tariff ruling in front of Supreme Court justices News Videos China and the U....
The Thai Baht’s strength is likely among factors underpinning the Bank of Thailand’s unexpected decision to lower interest rates, according to analysts. The baht pared gains to trade little changed against the dollar after the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 1%. Only three of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted t...
The Thai Baht’s strength is likely among factors underpinning the Bank of Thailand’s unexpected decision to lower interest rates, according to analysts. The baht pared gains to trade little changed against the dollar after the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 1%. Only three of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the move, with the rest expecting no change. The Thai stock benchmark rose as much as 2.2%. The local currency has advanced 1.8% so far this year, extending last year’s gain of over 8%. The baht’s rise has prompted a slew of measures from Thai authorities to curb its strength and shield exporters. Here’s what analysts are saying: Lloyd Chan , currency strategist at MUFG Bank Ltd.: “We have called for the out-of-consensus rate cut by Bank of Thailand today, given negative inflation and a generally weak growth outlook, notwithstanding some political clarity after the recent elections and the growth rebound in 4Q” “Thai baht strength may have also contributed to the policy easing” Against the backdrop of a softer dollar and resilient gold prices, the baht might moderately appreciate, with end-2026 forecast for USD/THB at 30.50 “With the Bank of Thailand nearing the end of its easing cycle, downside policy risk for the baht is diminishing, shifting FX focus toward growth and external drivers rather than further rate cut expectations” Kobsidthi Silpachai , head of capital market research at Kasikornbank Pcl.: “Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee might have wanted to proceed with a rate cut before the formation of a government as to uphold its independence” “Thailand is in a bit of a bind, as there is limited policy space” “While there could be a knee-jerk reaction from bonds and FX to the dovish surprise, this could soon reverse as the market will soon be asking whether the 1% rate is the neutral rate in this cycle, especially if the market isn’t pricing in a recession” ...
2026年1月30日，美国司法部发布了迄今为止规模最大的一批爱泼斯坦档案，其中包括三百万页文件以及数千个视频和图像。然而，一边是美国迟迟未对爱泼斯坦关联人物（包括特朗普、盖茨等）采取法律行动，另一边英国却陷入争端旋涡。英国工党元老、曾被斯塔默委任为英国驻美大使的彼得·曼德尔森（Peter Mandelson）被曝深度卷入爱泼斯坦案，甚至涉嫌向爱泼斯坦透露极高机密级别的英国政府信息，并多次收受对方的转账。这一事件迅速发酵，导致曼德尔森身败名裂。更令人担忧的是，这场风波的影响已经对斯塔默政府构成严重冲击，甚至有引发政府倒台的风险。 当地时间2025年2月27日，美国华盛顿，英国首相基尔·斯塔默（右）与英国驻美国大使彼得·曼德尔森在大使官邸出席欢迎招待会。 视觉中国 图 目前，斯塔默虽因数位高级阁僚被迫辞职与党内逼宫而陷入危机，但仍凭绝大多数内阁成员的支持而得以暂时稳定局面。然而，爱泼斯坦丑闻给英国政坛带来的政治风暴远未结束。自上任以来，斯塔默便深陷用人失察、施政反复与危机应对不力等争议，民意支持率持续低迷。尽管舆论热度可能回落，但其造成的信任裂痕已难以修复，党内与民间的双重压力仍在加剧。西方主流媒体普遍认为，曼德尔森丑闻显著动摇了斯塔默的执政稳定性，斯塔默的下台只是时间问题。《华尔街日报》干脆直接以此为标题：《英国首相斯塔默或将成为首位因爱泼斯坦丑闻下台的领导人》（U.K．‘s Starmer Is in Danger of Becoming First Leader to Fall in Epstein Scandal）。 一、从工党元老到国家叛徒：曼德尔森丑闻始末 现年72岁的彼得·曼德尔森出生在伦敦一个工党世家。他的外公莫里森勋爵身居高位，是二战后工党艾德礼政府的副首相兼枢密院议长。曼德尔森20世纪70年代从牛津大学毕业后，年纪轻轻就担任工党传播与通讯总监的曼德尔森被誉为工党第一代“政治化妆师”。他在暗中为工党进行公关工作，被传媒冠以“黑暗王子”（Prince of Darkness）的绰号。1994年，曼德尔森公开支持托尼·布莱尔角逐工党领导权，成为其问鼎党魁的重要推手。布莱尔当选后开始以安东尼·吉登斯提出的“第三条道路”理论为思想基石，重塑工党意识形态，开启“新工党”（New Labour）政治实验。作为早年从事传媒工作的资深顾问，曼德尔森为布莱尔精心设计并推...