At times, making crypto predictions on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi can feel a lot like sports betting. Instead of rooting for your hometown team to come away with the victory, you're rooting for your favorite altcoin to hit a certain price target. But here's the thing: Treating crypto trading like sports betting could be the fastest way to lose money. If you're planning to build a long-...
At times, making crypto predictions on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi can feel a lot like sports betting. Instead of rooting for your hometown team to come away with the victory, you're rooting for your favorite altcoin to hit a certain price target. But here's the thing: Treating crypto trading like sports betting could be the fastest way to lose money. If you're planning to build a long-term nest egg for retirement, there's a better way to use prediction markets to your advantage. The wrong way to use prediction markets It's staggering how many different ways you can bet on Bitcoin (BTC 0.79%) these days. You can predict that it will hit a certain price target by a certain date. You can predict that a certain event will happen, such as an S&P 500 company deciding to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. You can predict whether Bitcoin will outperform a certain asset class (such as gold) within a specific time frame. Or, if you're feeling really daring, you could bet on all of them at the same time. In sports betting parlance, this would be called a "parlay" because multiple bets are involved at one time. And there's no quicker way to lose money than betting on multi-leg parlays. Where things get really dangerous is when traders start to let their emotions get the better of them. Just like sports gambling, it's easy to get caught up in the moment. When an altcoin has momentum -- either to the upside or the downside -- it's easy to assume that the momentum will continue. But how many times have you watched a sporting event, only to see momentum turn on a single play? Real-time odds can change in a hurry. There's another danger, too. In addition to making long-term predictions about the price of Bitcoin, it's also possible to make ultra-short-term predictions about the price of Bitcoin. As in: "What will be the price of Bitcoin in 5 minutes?" Good luck if you think you can consistently make money doing that. It's a bit like trying to guess the outcome of the next...
Sri Lanka discharged from hospital 22 Iranian sailors who were plucked from life rafts after their warship was sunk by a US submarine, officials said on Sunday. The sailors were treated at Karapitiya Hospital in the southern port city of Galle since Wednesday after the IRIS Dena was torpedoed just outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters. “Another 10 are still undergoing treatment,” said a medical o...
Sri Lanka discharged from hospital 22 Iranian sailors who were plucked from life rafts after their warship was sunk by a US submarine, officials said on Sunday. The sailors were treated at Karapitiya Hospital in the southern port city of Galle since Wednesday after the IRIS Dena was torpedoed just outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters. “Another 10 are still undergoing treatment,” said a medical officer at the hospital. Advertisement He said the bodies of 84 Iranians retrieved from the Indian Ocean were also at the hospital. Those discharged from hospital overnight had been taken to a beach resort in the same district. Advertisement Sri Lankan authorities said the survivors from the Dena were being handled according to international humanitarian law, and the government had contacted the International Committee of the Red Cross for assistance.
Chinese scientists have cracked a long-standing puzzle in quantum optics , creating a tiny device that spits out pairs of light particles on demand with unprecedented purity and efficiency that could upend the quantum race. Single-photon devices are maturing rapidly, but the field is now pursuing efficient two-photon sources that can pave the way for sharper medical imaging, unbreakable encryption...
Chinese scientists have cracked a long-standing puzzle in quantum optics , creating a tiny device that spits out pairs of light particles on demand with unprecedented purity and efficiency that could upend the quantum race. Single-photon devices are maturing rapidly, but the field is now pursuing efficient two-photon sources that can pave the way for sharper medical imaging, unbreakable encryption and next-generation sensors. In precision measurement, for instance, using two photons can double the spatial resolution compared with a single photon. The challenge with traditional quantum dots – tiny structures often called “artificial atoms” – is that getting them to emit just two photons at a time is like trying to balance two marbles on a needle. Now, a team of researchers from Beijing has found an innovative way that delivers exceptionally strong two-photon efficiency. Advertisement Under pulsed excitation conditions – the process of applying a brief, intense force or impulse to a structure – their new emitter can achieve 98.3 per cent of emitted photons appearing in paired form, with a generation efficiency of 29.9 per cent. Such results represent the current “international best-in-class” of its kind, according to its lead researcher. The breakthrough, unveiled this week in Nature Materials, comes from a team at the Beijing Academy of Quantum Information Sciences led by chief scientist Yuan Zhiliang, in collaboration with researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Semiconductors. Advertisement Ding Fei, a scientist from Leibniz University in Germany, wrote in a research briefing in the same journal that he was “truly impressed by the result shown here”.
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images In my time researching and covering semiconductor companies, I think I’ve observed a bit of a pattern with how some players in the industry operate. Every few years, it’s like the industry rediscovers a part of the supply chain that most investors have previously ignored. Right now, that spotlight has shifted toward compound semiconductor materials and the su...
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images In my time researching and covering semiconductor companies, I think I’ve observed a bit of a pattern with how some players in the industry operate. Every few years, it’s like the industry rediscovers a part of the supply chain that most investors have previously ignored. Right now, that spotlight has shifted toward compound semiconductor materials and the suppliers that sit upstream of photonics, RF components, and high-performance connectivity hardware. In today’s case, I’m looking at AXT, Inc. ( AXTI ), a company that manufactures compound semiconductor substrates like indium phosphide and gallium arsenide. These are the materials that enable devices used in optical communications, wireless infrastructure, and a growing set of photonics applications. There are very strong tailwinds behind its business, which is why the stock has risen by 2,000% in the last 12 months. Wildly impressive stuff, in my view. But it is rich, that valuation, given that the company’s market cap is ~$2 billion on an annual revenue base that’s under $100 million and steadily worsening margins. Of course, that’s not the full story, and I will lay it out in the coming sections. The important thing to point out here is that this is not a business that has historically compounded its revenue and margins smoothly or predictably, and yet, the market is ignoring that. That disconnect is why I’m initiating my coverage of AXTI with a Hold recommendation. What AXT Actually Does Before I get into the numbers, I think it’s important to understand where AXTI actually sits in the semiconductor supply chain. It’s not a chip designer or a semiconductor equipment company. The business operates upstream as a substrate manufacturer, producing the crystalline wafers on which compound semiconductor devices are built. The company’s business revolves around three core materials: indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and germanium (Ge). They are specialized compou...
Russell's pole position - 0.8 seconds clear of the fastest non-Mercedes car - had sent shockwaves through the paddock on Saturday but the race was initially much closer than qualifying. Both Ferrari drivers made their expected electric starts, and Leclerc vaulted from fourth on the grid to take the lead at the first corner. Russell powered past the Ferrari on lap two between Turns 10 and 11 by usi...
Russell's pole position - 0.8 seconds clear of the fastest non-Mercedes car - had sent shockwaves through the paddock on Saturday but the race was initially much closer than qualifying. Both Ferrari drivers made their expected electric starts, and Leclerc vaulted from fourth on the grid to take the lead at the first corner. Russell powered past the Ferrari on lap two between Turns 10 and 11 by using extra electrical energy. But Leclerc was not to go down without a fight and drove past the Mercedes in a similar fashion on the run to Turn Nine on lap three. Russell tracked Leclerc closely, challenging him into Turn One on lap nine only for the Ferrari driver to fend him off and leave Russell to fight to retain his position from Hamilton, who made it a three-car train in the lead. Antonelli, who had dropped back to seventh at the start, then joined them to make it four cars in the leading group after 10 laps, and they circulated together until Isack Hadjar's Red Bull retired on lap 12. The Frenchman, who had been running fifth, pulled off on the back straight, bringing out the virtual safety car, usually the trigger for teams to pit and benefit from the reduced time loss compared with pitting under racing conditions. But while Russell and Antonelli pitted, Leclerc and Hamilton did not. Hamilton immediately questioned the call, saying over the radio: "At least one of us should have pitted." Instead, they ran long, sticking to their pre-race plan of a one-stop strategy. By the time Leclerc pitted on lap 25, Russell was only five seconds off the lead, and the Ferrari emerged 14 seconds behind. On fresher tyres, Leclerc might have been expected to narrow the gap to Russell, but he did not, and the fight at the front was over.
The Capture 9pm, BBC One This political thriller about the intelligence service’s use of deepfake “correction” videos was ahead of the curve when it debuted in 2019. The third series picks up a year after Rachel Carey (Holliday Grainger) blew the whistle and she is now acting commander of the counter-terrorism unit (well, she’s the “young, female, single ” face of it). When another attack happens,...
The Capture 9pm, BBC One This political thriller about the intelligence service’s use of deepfake “correction” videos was ahead of the curve when it debuted in 2019. The third series picks up a year after Rachel Carey (Holliday Grainger) blew the whistle and she is now acting commander of the counter-terrorism unit (well, she’s the “young, female, single ” face of it). When another attack happens, she is the only one who sees the perpetrator’s real face … Hollie Richardson MasterChef: The Professionals 7pm, BBC One It’s the last quarter-final and all that is standing between four chefs and a place in knockout week is a box of mince. Can they magic up something spectacular from the everyday staple? Then they must produce a two-course meal that will hopefully wow guest judges April Jackson, William Sitwell and Tom Parker Bowles. Graeme Virtue Call the Midwife 8pm, BBC One It’s not just the end of the series but also seemingly of an era, as Nonnatus House legend Sister Monica Joan (Judy Parfitt) continues to decline. As she enjoys what might be a final trip to Poplar market, preparations are also under way for Cyril and Rosalind’s nuptials. Hannah J Davies Forensics: The Real CSI 9pm, BBC Two The stressful series following remarkable forensic work conducted at crime scenes continues with a woman calling emergency services to report being raped in a Birmingham phone box. The response team get to work but a public phone comes with the issue of many fingerprints. HR Gone 9pm, ITV1 View image in fullscreen Straight-talking detective … Gone on ITV1. Photograph: ITV A murky thriller written by George Kay, the creator of Lupin and Hijack. When stiff-upper-lipped boarding school headmaster Michael (David Morrissey) reports his wife missing, straight-talking detective Annie Cassidy (Eve Myles) is put on the job and he becomes the prime suspect. This fictionalised story is partly inspired by the true-crime book To Hunt a Killer, which follows a cold murder case. HR The Great Pot...
The US embassy in Oslo was hit by an explosion in the early hours of Sunday but no one was injured, police in the Norwegian capital said, adding the cause was not immediately known. The blast occurred around 1am local time and caused only “minor material damage” to one of the building’s entrances, Oslo police said in a statement. Investigators were examining the scene, while dogs, drones, and heli...
The US embassy in Oslo was hit by an explosion in the early hours of Sunday but no one was injured, police in the Norwegian capital said, adding the cause was not immediately known. The blast occurred around 1am local time and caused only “minor material damage” to one of the building’s entrances, Oslo police said in a statement. Investigators were examining the scene, while dogs, drones, and helicopters were involved in the search “for one or more potential perpetrators”, it said. Advertisement “Police view such incidents in public spaces as very serious, and are investigating the case with substantial resources and high priority.” The area outside the US embassy in Oslo is cordoned off, after the Norwegian police said the building was hit by a loud explosion on Sunday. Photo: Reuters Police commander Michael Dellemyr told TV2 police would “not comment on anything related to the type of damage, what it is that has exploded and similar details, beyond the fact that there has been an explosion” because “it is very early in the investigation”.
Hong Kong’s workers and employers may have to pay more into the Mandatory Provident Fund, as the pension regulator considers calls to raise the contribution threshold, which has remained unchanged for 13 years. Ayesha Macpherson Lau, chairwoman of the Mandatory Provident Fund Authority (MPFA), said in her blog on Sunday that the body had consulted various stakeholder groups since February on adjus...
Hong Kong’s workers and employers may have to pay more into the Mandatory Provident Fund, as the pension regulator considers calls to raise the contribution threshold, which has remained unchanged for 13 years. Ayesha Macpherson Lau, chairwoman of the Mandatory Provident Fund Authority (MPFA), said in her blog on Sunday that the body had consulted various stakeholder groups since February on adjusting the minimum and maximum income levels used to determine contributions. She hinted at a possible increase in the thresholds, noting that the prolonged lack of adjustments had left pension fund contributions out of touch with the cost of living. Advertisement “There is a call to raise the minimum income level to alleviate financial burden on low‑income employees, while also considering suitable increased adjustments to the mandatory contributions of employees whose wages exceed the current maximum income level, to ensure MPF’s basic retirement protection function is not eroded,” Macpherson Lau said, citing opinions gathered so far from labour groups, business chambers, employers’ representatives and professional service bodies. She added that the feedback also included suggestions on how much the contributions should be raised. Advertisement Macpherson Lau said the authority would consolidate all views into a review report to be submitted by the middle of this year. The last two review cycles, covering 2014–18 and 2018–2022, were kept at 2013–2014 levels because of social and pandemic-related factors.
While Washington’s breakup with Anthropic exposed the complete lack of any coherent rules governing artificial intelligence, a bipartisan coalition of thinkers has assembled something the government has so far declined to produce: a framework for what responsible AI development should actually look like. The Pro-Human Declaration was finalized before last week’s Pentagon-Anthropic standoff, but th...
While Washington’s breakup with Anthropic exposed the complete lack of any coherent rules governing artificial intelligence, a bipartisan coalition of thinkers has assembled something the government has so far declined to produce: a framework for what responsible AI development should actually look like. The Pro-Human Declaration was finalized before last week’s Pentagon-Anthropic standoff, but the collision of the two events wasn’t lost on anyone involved. “There’s something quite remarkable that has happened in America just in the last four months,” said Max Tegmark, the MIT physicist and AI researcher who helped organize the effort, in conversation with this editor. “Polling suddenly [is showing] that 95% of all Americans oppose an unregulated race to superintelligence.” The newly published document, signed by hundreds of experts, former officials, and public figures, opens with the no-nonsense observation that humanity is at a fork in the road. One path, which the declaration calls “the race to replace,” leads to humans being supplanted first as workers, then as decision-makers, as power accrues to unaccountable institutions and their machines. The other leads to AI that massively expands human potential. The latter scenario depends on five key pillars: keeping humans in charge, avoiding the concentration of power, protecting the human experience, preserving individual liberty, and holding AI companies legally accountable. Among its more muscular provisions is an outright prohibition on superintelligence development until there is scientific consensus it can be done safely and genuine democratic buy-in; mandatory off-switches on powerful systems; and a ban on architectures that are capable of self-replication, autonomous self-improvement, or resistance to shutdown. The declaration’s release coincided with a week that made its urgency far easier to appreciate. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic — whose AI already runs on classified military platf...
Railways are becoming strategic assets in the race for critical minerals. China is stepping up investment to overhaul projects like the Tazara railway, which was first built during the Mao era, to move critical minerals to global markets. Bloomberg's Matt Hill explains the importance of investing in African infrastructure. (Source: Bloomberg)
Railways are becoming strategic assets in the race for critical minerals. China is stepping up investment to overhaul projects like the Tazara railway, which was first built during the Mao era, to move critical minerals to global markets. Bloomberg's Matt Hill explains the importance of investing in African infrastructure. (Source: Bloomberg)
From the 18th century onwards, female authors gained unprecedented prominence, from Jane Austen and the Brontë sisters in the West to the rise of significant women writers in Qing-era China (1644–1912). The increasing prominence of female Chinese authors was driven by Dream of the Red Chamber, an 18th-century masterpiece by Cao Xueqin, widely considered the pinnacle of Chinese fiction and one of t...
From the 18th century onwards, female authors gained unprecedented prominence, from Jane Austen and the Brontë sisters in the West to the rise of significant women writers in Qing-era China (1644–1912). The increasing prominence of female Chinese authors was driven by Dream of the Red Chamber, an 18th-century masterpiece by Cao Xueqin, widely considered the pinnacle of Chinese fiction and one of the four great classical novels of Chinese history. Cao’s book was so important that a cottage industry of poets emerged, writing works dedicated to the novel. This trend continued the “rise of the woman writer,” which began during the Ming dynasty (1368-1644). Chiung Yao, originally named Chen Che, was a renowned Taiwanese novelist and producer, celebrated as the most beloved romance author in the Chinese-speaking world.. Photo: WeiIbo/会火 Ruofan Zhang from Changchun University in Jilin, in northern China, wrote in a paper dedicated to Qing-era poets. In the work, published by the Journal of Education, Humanities and Social Sciences in early February, she stated: Advertisement “When we enter the literary garden of Qing women’s writing, we come into intimate contact with their inner worlds – we may clearly discern their often-obscured modes of existence, listen to their long-silenced grievances and muted cries of resistance, and feel both their anguished collapse and their tenacious struggle within harsh conditions of survival.” Zhang added that the Qing dynasty saw a “period of awakening” in which women demanded to break free from the fate of a male-dominated society. Advertisement However, despite breakthroughs in the arts, Qing society did not achieve gender equality.
I’m somewhat in love with this weird, bold, silly restaurant Trillium , the latest Birmingham restaurant by Glyn Purnell , is absolutely not one of those po-faced, sedate, mumbly kind of places where some Ludovico Einaudi is piped plinky-plonkily throughout the dining room while guests stiffly eat six teensy courses. In fact, it’s quite the opposite, even if Purnell, via the likes of Purnell’s and...
I’m somewhat in love with this weird, bold, silly restaurant Trillium , the latest Birmingham restaurant by Glyn Purnell , is absolutely not one of those po-faced, sedate, mumbly kind of places where some Ludovico Einaudi is piped plinky-plonkily throughout the dining room while guests stiffly eat six teensy courses. In fact, it’s quite the opposite, even if Purnell, via the likes of Purnell’s and Plates , is pretty much synonymous throughout the Midlands with fancy, special-occasion, Michelin star-winning refinement. Yet on a recent Saturday night, in this brand new, glass-fronted, multicoloured mock birdcage, the talk is loud, the music is roaring and the plates of battered potato scallop with soured cream are appearing thick and fast. Trillium is a genuine attempt by a Michelin-starred restaurateur to translate some of their best bits into a semi-rowdier yet still upmarket stage. It’s been attempted many times by other chefs (see Corenucopia and Bar Valette for details), but, miraculously, Purnell seems to have pulled it off. There’s a general feeling of people – gasp! – actually enjoying life. Naturally, you can, if you feel like splashing out, add some Sturia oscietra caviar to that spud scallop for an extra £25, but, as with most plates at Trillium and as I quickly find out, that potato is designed to feel luxuriously hedonistic anyway. Continue reading...
Survivors of Ireland’s mother and baby homes have started to have benefits cut in Britain because they accepted compensation from the Irish government. The cuts to the means-tested benefits of survivors in Britain come as campaigners including the actors Siobhán McSweeney and Steve Coogan called on Keir Starmer to back a bill known as Philomena’s Law, which would ringfence survivors’ benefits. Up ...
Survivors of Ireland’s mother and baby homes have started to have benefits cut in Britain because they accepted compensation from the Irish government. The cuts to the means-tested benefits of survivors in Britain come as campaigners including the actors Siobhán McSweeney and Steve Coogan called on Keir Starmer to back a bill known as Philomena’s Law, which would ringfence survivors’ benefits. Up to 13,000 of the survivors who are living in Britain risk losing access to essential means-tested benefits if they accept compensation, which can range from €5,000 to €125,000 (£4,230 to £105,000) depending on the length of time people were resident. The Irish government’s redress scheme was introduced after an inquiry detailed the horrific experiences of about 56,000 women and about 57,000 children who were placed or born in homes, mostly run by nuns, between 1922 and 1998. A 2021 report detailed an alarming number of deaths of babies in the homes and documented cruelty and neglect. Women were forced to take part in work and were separated from their babies, who were fostered or adopted. The Irish government’s Mother and Baby Institutions Payment Scheme started making payments in 2024. But because it is considered a recipient’s savings it can result in losing means-tested benefits in Britain, such as universal credit or pension credit, and have an impact on financial support for social care. As feared, councils have begun sending letters to notify people who received payments that they will lose support such as housing benefit. Some survivors of the homes have decided not to accept offers of compensation because of fears of losing benefits. After a period of six months this is considered a rejection, while some have since died. One woman in her late 70s – who had experienced physical and psychological abuse from nuns in a mother and baby home – said she had initially been delighted when her eligibility for a payment was confirmed and she had hoped to use the money to visit...
It’s a grim time to be in your 20s, no doubt, but don’t blame it all on older people: being chopped up into ever smaller rivalries only serves the market Intergenerational relations, or lack of them, is a subject I’ve been thinking about, on and off, since the financial crisis. I’ve read up on it, too – things such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report on intergenerational earnings mobility ...
It’s a grim time to be in your 20s, no doubt, but don’t blame it all on older people: being chopped up into ever smaller rivalries only serves the market Intergenerational relations, or lack of them, is a subject I’ve been thinking about, on and off, since the financial crisis. I’ve read up on it, too – things such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report on intergenerational earnings mobility , which is wonky but full of fascinating information which needs some parsing. (Example: “While the educational attainment of ethnic minorities growing up in families eligible for free school meals is often higher than that of their white majority peers, their earnings outcomes show no such advantage.” Why not?) Another good source of data is the Office for Budgetary Responsibility’s (OBR) report on intergenerational fairness – which, interestingly, is about the bluntest statement of fiscal unfairness that you can find. The OBR makes the point that “a current new-born baby would make an average net discounted contribution to the exchequer of £68,400 over its life-time, whilst future generations would have to contribute £159,700”. In plain English, people’s lifetime contribution to the state is going to double. That number is from 2011, and will definitely have got worse. In 2019, the House of Lords published a report on “ Tackling intergenerational unfairness ”, which doesn’t even bother pretending that the problem doesn’t exist. Mind you, not everyone agrees. A 2023 report from Imperial College Business School argues “there is more solidarity between generations than the ‘Millennials versus Boomers’ narrative would suggest”. So this is definitely a question you can address through data – though there is a risk that you can use numbers to cherrypick your way to a conclusion you already held in advance. The other way of thinking about it is through lived experience. Not necessarily just your own. I often find myself thinking about the range of experiences and expectations in...