德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。 Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。 “比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，贬值的事后...
德意志银行称，投资者对美联储的降息预期可能超出了与经济基本面相符的程度，因为他们担心的那种人工智能（AI）冲击可能压根就不会到来。 Matthew Raskin等策略师周三在报告中写道，这种状况就类似于经典的“比索问题”，即投资者将未来发生一种概率极低的重大事件的风险计算在内。 “比索问题”一词来源于上世纪70年代，当时市场担心墨西哥比索可能突然贬值，因此长期低估墨西哥资产的价值。然而，贬值的事后面很多年都未发生，使得这种风险溢价在事后看来很不理性。但当时投资者不得不对潜在的黑天鹅事件有所提防。 德意志银行的策略师们认为，当下对AI可能破坏劳动力市场，导致企业和就业岗位减少的担忧，给债券交易员对美联储政策的预期也造成了类似的影响。 虽然中东冲突推高了能源价格，促使交易员削减了对今年降息力度的押注，但他们仍然将货币宽松预期时间推至2027年。 Raskin说，出于对AI最终可能导致大面积失业的恐慌，这些预期或将持续，很大程度上不会受到即将公布的经济数据的影响。 “在当前的环境下，无论市场对AI导致失业率大幅上升的预期是否正确，这里面都有某种程度的比索问题，而且我们目前完全不清楚，哪些短期数据或其他什么事情会让市场断定‘风险并没有目前大家感知的那么大’，”Raskin及其同事写道。“这意味着，就算经济数据好于预期，对接下来的一年或更长时间的降息预期也可能持续。” 责任编辑：刘明亮
United Super Pty Ltd in its capacity as Trustee for the Construction & Building Unions Superannuation Fund reduced its holdings in shares of Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META - Free Report) by 3.0% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 215,301 shares of the social networking company's stock after se...
United Super Pty Ltd in its capacity as Trustee for the Construction & Building Unions Superannuation Fund reduced its holdings in shares of Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META - Free Report) by 3.0% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 215,301 shares of the social networking company's stock after selling 6,558 shares during the quarter. Meta Platforms makes up 5.8% of United Super Pty Ltd in its capacity as Trustee for the Construction & Building Unions Superannuation Fund's investment portfolio, making the stock its 5th largest position. United Super Pty Ltd in its capacity as Trustee for the Construction & Building Unions Superannuation Fund's holdings in Meta Platforms were worth $158,113,000 as of its most recent SEC filing. Other large investors have also made changes to their positions in the company. Westchester Capital Management Inc. purchased a new stake in Meta Platforms in the 3rd quarter worth approximately $26,000. Bare Financial Services Inc purchased a new position in shares of Meta Platforms in the 2nd quarter valued at $30,000. Knuff & Co LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Meta Platforms in the second quarter worth about $44,000. Spurstone Advisory Services LLC acquired a new stake in Meta Platforms in the second quarter valued at approximately $59,000. Finally, Evergreen Private Wealth LLC increased its stake in Meta Platforms by 64.8% during the 3rd quarter. Evergreen Private Wealth LLC now owns 89 shares of the social networking company's stock worth $65,000 after buying an additional 35 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 79.91% of the company's stock. Get Meta Platforms alerts: Sign Up Wall Street Analyst Weigh In META has been the subject of a number of research analyst reports. Barclays restated an "overweight" rating and issued a $800.00 price target (up from $770.00) on shares of Meta Platforms in a rese...
Asia-Pacific Images Studio/iStock via Getty Images JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) and UBS Group ( UBS ) dropped an investment firm, which was recently raided by Hong Kong authorities, as a prime brokerage client well before the investigation into insider dealing became public, according to a media report on Thursday. The two banks ended their prime brokerage services relationship with Infini Capital Manag...
Asia-Pacific Images Studio/iStock via Getty Images JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) and UBS Group ( UBS ) dropped an investment firm, which was recently raided by Hong Kong authorities, as a prime brokerage client well before the investigation into insider dealing became public, according to a media report on Thursday. The two banks ended their prime brokerage services relationship with Infini Capital Management Ltd. months ago, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. UBS ( UBS ) and JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), along with Standard Chartered Plc ( SCBFF ) ( SCBFY ), were named as Infini's prime brokers in a March 2025 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Bloomberg report indicated it's unclear if the two banks ended other business with Infini and what led to the decision. The three banks declined to comment to the article's reporters. Infini, they said, didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Hong Kong's financial regulators and anti-graft agency on Thursday said they arrested eight people as part of their probe into a HK$315M (US$40M) insider trading deal involving two major brokerages and a hedge fund manager. They didn't name the entities involved, but people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that local offices of Citic Securities, Guotai Junan International Holdings, and Infini were raided this week. The investigation focuses on allegations that executives at the securities firms took more than HK$4M in bribes from a hedge fund manager in exchange for non-public details of share placements for several Hong Kong-listed companies. More on JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase: I'm Starting To Get Interested Under $300 With The Dividend Yield Above 2% JPMorgan Chase: Stretched Near 2.2x P/B, Concerning Price Action (Downgrade) JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Discusses Strategic Framework and Firm Overview with Executive Q&A Transcript Is the private credit party over amid surging redemptions? JPMorgan marking down loan portfol...
SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda cut its position in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META - Free Report) by 81.3% during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 11,030 shares of the social networking company's stock after selling 47,900 shares during the period. SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda's holdings in Meta Platform...
SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda cut its position in Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META - Free Report) by 81.3% during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 11,030 shares of the social networking company's stock after selling 47,900 shares during the period. SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda's holdings in Meta Platforms were worth $8,100,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Other hedge funds and other institutional investors also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its position in Meta Platforms by 0.8% during the second quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 192,591,101 shares of the social networking company's stock worth $142,149,566,000 after acquiring an additional 1,532,568 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp grew its position in shares of Meta Platforms by 1.9% in the second quarter. State Street Corp now owns 86,925,674 shares of the social networking company's stock valued at $64,158,971,000 after purchasing an additional 1,650,435 shares in the last quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its position in shares of Meta Platforms by 1.3% in the second quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 51,575,209 shares of the social networking company's stock valued at $37,902,948,000 after purchasing an additional 682,768 shares in the last quarter. Norges Bank acquired a new stake in shares of Meta Platforms in the second quarter valued at approximately $23,155,393,000. Finally, Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Meta Platforms by 1.8% in the second quarter. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. now owns 14,489,621 shares of the social networking company's stock valued at $10,694,644,000 after purchasing an additional 262,550 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 79.91% of the com...
Key findings for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Neutral Near and Mid-Term Readings Could Moderate Long-Term Positive Bias No clear price positioning signal identified. Elevated downside risk as no additional long-term support signals remain. Signals: 255.41 · 259.57 · 279.01 · 297.81 (bold = current price) · 259.57 · 279.01 · 297.81 Neutral Sentiment is prevailing thus far — See current SIGNALS for pos...
Key findings for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Neutral Near and Mid-Term Readings Could Moderate Long-Term Positive Bias No clear price positioning signal identified. Elevated downside risk as no additional long-term support signals remain. Signals: 255.41 · 259.57 · 279.01 · 297.81 (bold = current price) · 259.57 · 279.01 · 297.81 Neutral Sentiment is prevailing thus far — See current SIGNALS for positioning and risk parameters. Institutional Trading Strategies Our AI models have generated three distinct trading strategies tailored to different risk profiles and holding periods. Each strategy incorporates sophisticated risk management parameters designed to optimize position sizing and minimize drawdown risk. Position Trading Strategy LONG Entry Zone $259.57 Target $280.34 Stop Loss $260.32 Momentum Breakout Strategy BREAKOUT Trigger $258.72 Target $259.13 Stop Loss $258.00 Risk Hedging Strategy SHORT Entry Zone $259.13 Target $246.17 Stop Loss $259.91
Key Points Medicare Advantage plans often offer extra benefits to enrollees. These plans also put a cap on annual out-of-pocket spending. Despite these perks, you're not guaranteed to save money by signing up for Medicare Advantage. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Once you turn 65, you're generally eligible to sign up for Medicare. But you don't necessarily ha...
Key Points Medicare Advantage plans often offer extra benefits to enrollees. These plans also put a cap on annual out-of-pocket spending. Despite these perks, you're not guaranteed to save money by signing up for Medicare Advantage. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Once you turn 65, you're generally eligible to sign up for Medicare. But you don't necessarily have to stick to original Medicare. Medicare Advantage plans are an alternative to original Medicare. They're offered by private insurers and they're required to offer at least the same level of coverage as original Medicare. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Often, though, they offer even more benefits. And that could lead to a world of savings. Medicare Advantage plans have another, well, advantage over original Medicare -- they cap annual out-of-pocket spending for enrollees. Original Medicare doesn't do that, which can be challenging for retirees on a fixed income (though buying supplemental insurance can help cap costs to a certain degree). Plus, many Medicare Advantage plans come with very low monthly premiums. Some even come with $0 premiums. But you shouldn't assume that Medicare Advantage will automatically be cheaper for you because of these perks. You may find that you end up spending more money on healthcare if you enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan. The hidden costs of Medicare Advantage While it's true that Medicare Advantage premiums can be quite competitive, premiums are only a piece of the puzzle. Medicare Advantage plans commonly require enrollees to cover the cost of copays, deductibles, and other expenses. Depending on the state of your health and the amount of care you need, those costs could add up. Plus, Medicare Advantage plans tend to impose strict provider networks. ...
Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil shipper has been booking tankers at sky-high rates, as a massive armada is on its way to load the kingdom’s crude from the Red Sea in a workaround to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. The National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia , known as Bahri, hired at least six very-large crude carriers to haul barrels from the western port of Yanbu in recent days, according to fixt...
Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil shipper has been booking tankers at sky-high rates, as a massive armada is on its way to load the kingdom’s crude from the Red Sea in a workaround to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. The National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia , known as Bahri, hired at least six very-large crude carriers to haul barrels from the western port of Yanbu in recent days, according to fixture lists. A shipbroker and two vessel owners said they believed the company’s spree to be even larger than that, with more deals likely to emerge in the coming days. Saudi Arabia has been rushing to reroute supplies through a pipeline to the Red Sea as exports through Hormuz remain effectively halted by the war in the Middle East. The disruption through the waterway that typically handles a fifth of global supplies has sent crude prices spiking north of $100 a barrel more than once this week, while key oil tanker rates have touched record levels. Bahri said it continues to manage operations in line with established safety and operational protocols while closely monitoring regional developments, adding it couldn’t comment on commercial matters. A flotilla of tankers that stretches from Singapore to the Red Sea is already on the way to Yanbu to pick up Saudi crude, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That fleet contains at least 24 ships, though the charterers of all of those vessels weren’t immediately known. Many of the bookings made by Bahri were at 450 industry-standard Worldscale points, a rate that equates to north of $450,000 a day. Prior to the war, the industry’s benchmark rate had never been above $300,000 a day. The boss of Saudi Aramco said this week he expected a pipeline that transports barrels about 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) across the country to be running at full capacity in a matter of days, marking the ramp-up of the kingdom’s main alternative to Hormuz. The pipeline is able to handle 7 million barrels a day, though about 2 million barrels ...
Indivior Pharmaceuticals ( INDV ) said on Thursday it intended to offer $400M of convertible senior notes due 2031 and expected to grant initial purchasers a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $60M of notes. Under the proposed offering, the notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of Indivior, with semiannual interest payments and maturity on March 15, 2031. Notes will be redeemable, in w...
Indivior Pharmaceuticals ( INDV ) said on Thursday it intended to offer $400M of convertible senior notes due 2031 and expected to grant initial purchasers a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $60M of notes. Under the proposed offering, the notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of Indivior, with semiannual interest payments and maturity on March 15, 2031. Notes will be redeemable, in whole or in part, for cash at Indivior’s option from March 20, 2029, until the 25th scheduled trading day before maturity, subject to certain conditions, including the stock trading above 130% of the conversion price for a specified period. Indivior intends to use about $239M of the net proceeds along with about $102M of cash on hand to repay borrowings and terminate its term loan and revolving credit facility. The company plans to use up to about $75M to repurchase shares from certain note purchasers in privately negotiated deals, with the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes. Final terms of the notes, including interest and conversion rates, will be set at the pricing of the offering. More on Indivior Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INDV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Indivior outlines 30% adjusted EBITDA growth target for 2026 with new $400M share repurchase program Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Indivior Historical earnings data for Indivior
sankai/iStock via Getty Images As CPI inflation stays steady at both the headline and core level for February, at any other time the release would be no news. But with a war underway, the focus is not on what has happened, but what's coming. Higher prices in March are a given, going by the recent oil price shock. It's clear that they leave no room for monetary easing later this month. Stock market...
sankai/iStock via Getty Images As CPI inflation stays steady at both the headline and core level for February, at any other time the release would be no news. But with a war underway, the focus is not on what has happened, but what's coming. Higher prices in March are a given, going by the recent oil price shock. It's clear that they leave no room for monetary easing later this month. Stock markets are understandably bearish too. But there are still investing opportunities around. All of this is discussed below. What the February CPI inflation report says CPI inflation remained unchanged from January at 2.4% YoY and core inflation remained at 2.5% YoY as well. While there's zero development as a result from last month, these are positive outcomes anyway in that they provide some room for an inflation increase without causing any particular economic disruption. Consider their context as follows: The headline figure for January 2026 was at a nine month low, which means that the level is sustained in the latest read. Both headline and core inflation figures are lower than the average monthly inflation over the past 12 months of 2.6% YoY and 2.8% YoY respectively. The figures are also exactly at the Fed's target rate for PCE inflation for 2026. CPI Inflation, YoY, % (Source: Trading Economics) Core CPI Inflation, YoY, % (Source: Trading Economics) Why the inflation increase can be muted In any case, the inflation increase might be rather muted even as Brent crude futures have more than doubled since the start of the year. Here's how: Oil prices seen subsiding: The US's EIA has upped its fuel price forecasts recently, with the rise in Brent spot price expected to be 37% bigger (see table below) to USD 79/bbl now. However, with Brent trading at over USD 90/bbl right now, the updated forecast clearly expects that the oil price spike won't sustain. In fact, the EIA says that it expects Brent's price to drop to USD 70/bbl by the end of 2026. Base effect on oil price forecast...
Carson Block Turns Bearish, Says AI Threatens 15% Of US Knowledge Jobs Carson Block says artificial intelligence has completely changed how he views markets over the past several weeks, according to Bloomberg . In a conversation with Barry Ritholtz at the Future Proof Wealth Management conference in Miami Beach, the founder and chief investment officer of Muddy Waters Capital said his outlook has ...
Carson Block Turns Bearish, Says AI Threatens 15% Of US Knowledge Jobs Carson Block says artificial intelligence has completely changed how he views markets over the past several weeks, according to Bloomberg . In a conversation with Barry Ritholtz at the Future Proof Wealth Management conference in Miami Beach, the founder and chief investment officer of Muddy Waters Capital said his outlook has flipped. “Up until one month ago, I was completely sanguine on the S&P 500 and markets in general and the economy,” Block said. “And my view has 180-ed.” Known for his short-selling campaigns, Block had been relatively constructive on equities as recently as late November, saying he preferred being long rather than short the U.S. market and even revealing several uncommon long positions. Since then, however, the S&P 500 has lost momentum after a stretch of successive record highs. Block now believes AI could meaningfully reshape both the economy and the stock market. Investor anxiety has been building over whether the hundreds of billions being spent on AI infrastructure will generate sufficient returns — or instead disrupt large parts of the corporate landscape and eliminate many white-collar jobs. At the center of his concern is how job losses could ripple through the labor market and eventually affect financial markets. “I think it’s not unrealistic to say 15% of knowledge worker jobs in the US in three years are gone,” Block said. If new roles don’t emerge quickly enough, higher unemployment could reduce flows into retirement accounts such as 401(k) plans, which have long supported equity markets. If displaced workers then begin withdrawing savings because they cannot find new jobs, it could add further pressure. Bloomberg writes that once that process begins, “there’s nobody there to catch the falling knife,” he said. Block expects the disruption to appear first in fields such as law, accounting, tax advisory and finance support functions, particularly among junior sta...
Hong Kong drivers are increasingly crossing the border to mainland China to replenish their tanks, as authorities crack down on a case of an illegal filling operation amid the surge in global oil prices. Motorists are exploring different ways to mitigate the rising fuel cost after the ongoing conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Ringo Lee Yiu-pui, governor and honorary life president ...
Hong Kong drivers are increasingly crossing the border to mainland China to replenish their tanks, as authorities crack down on a case of an illegal filling operation amid the surge in global oil prices. Motorists are exploring different ways to mitigate the rising fuel cost after the ongoing conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Ringo Lee Yiu-pui, governor and honorary life president of the Hong Kong, China Automobile Association, on Thursday highlighted a sharp rise in local drivers crossing into the mainland to refuel due to the widening price gap. Advertisement Authorities raised mainland petrol and diesel prices by 695 and 670 yuan (US$101 and US$97.50) per tonne respectively from midnight on Tuesday – the fourth increase this year and the largest in recent years amid surging international oil prices. “Even after a slight price increase on the mainland, fuel there remains roughly one-third the cost in Hong Kong. As a result, many private cars eligible under the northbound travel scheme, along with those holding cross-border licences, are heading to border points in Shenzhen and Zhuhai to refuel,” Lee said. Advertisement As of Thursday, petrol prices at stations in Shenzhen and Zhuhai ranged from around 7.66 to 10.29 yuan per litre for various options. They remained significantly lower than Hong Kong’s pump prices, which surpass HK$30 per litre for both petrol and diesel.