Kajdi Szabolcs/iStock via Getty Images I've been following the war and its evolution for the past few weeks, and while there have been opportunities to make money, I have been, for the most part, staying out. I believe that we, during the next 23 hours or so from submitting this article, are reaching a bit of a critical point (or potential). The reason is obviously related to the initial threat fr...
Kajdi Szabolcs/iStock via Getty Images I've been following the war and its evolution for the past few weeks, and while there have been opportunities to make money, I have been, for the most part, staying out. I believe that we, during the next 23 hours or so from submitting this article, are reaching a bit of a critical point (or potential). The reason is obviously related to the initial threat from the US administration to infrastructure and power generation in Iran, with the response to retaliate against the Gulf state infrastructures. It seems very clear to me at this point that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be opened in a few days. Most analysts seem to agree that we're talking weeks, not months. What I will do in this article are two things. First, I will use historical data and best-practice assumptions and forecasts to model what could happen if these threats are brought to bear. Not only the effects on Iranian infrastructure or Gulf infrastructure, but the stock market as a whole (that is, after all, why we are here). Secondly, I will share my own approach for this situation and why I believe it to be the correct approach (and in what situation). The stock market impact of a severe oil crisis and the background For the time being, I will argue that we have played with the beginnings of an energy/oil crisis. Several times, we've skirted above $100/bbl prices, but we're back down again. However, it seems that the potential for this to get worse is at the very least there. It seems very unlikely to me that Iran is going to accede to the US demands of opening the strait . While I consider it militarily unlikely for Iran to be capable of, as they say, "closing the strait indefinitely", there's certainly a lot they could do to make it much harder to traverse. While I'm not a military tactician, I've been reading up on what would be technically required to safeguard the Strait from a US perspective. Aside from the obvious, sustained naval assets in the regio...
Elon Musk made good on his Terafab promise, and it’s big. On Saturday night, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Musk outlined a bold vision for vertically integrating chip production into his plans to create an artificial intelligence empire. At a defunct power plant, Musk announced plans to build a semiconductor manufacturing plant, to be a joint venture among Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX.
Elon Musk made good on his Terafab promise, and it’s big. On Saturday night, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Musk outlined a bold vision for vertically integrating chip production into his plans to create an artificial intelligence empire. At a defunct power plant, Musk announced plans to build a semiconductor manufacturing plant, to be a joint venture among Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX.
In this article GDX Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT miner looks across the largest open pit gold mine in Australia called the Fimiston Open Pit, also known as the Super Pit, in the gold-mining town of Kalgoorlie, located around 500 kilometres east of Perth. David Gray | Reuters Gold price fell sharply on Monday morning as investors continued to ditch exposure to the precious yellow...
In this article GDX Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT miner looks across the largest open pit gold mine in Australia called the Fimiston Open Pit, also known as the Super Pit, in the gold-mining town of Kalgoorlie, located around 500 kilometres east of Perth. David Gray | Reuters Gold price fell sharply on Monday morning as investors continued to ditch exposure to the precious yellow metal, which is having its status as a safe-haven trade tested amid the ongoing war in Iran. The recent move lower inevitably has second-order effects on miners, whose market values soared before the war as gold prices skyrocketed. Mining companies are among the most volatile stocks, typically acting as a leveraged bet on the gold price, rising during a commodities bull run and falling further during a sell-off. Since the war, the price of gold has fallen, lowering miners' revenues, and the oil and gas supply shock has boosted energy prices, raising their costs. Before the conflict, they had enjoyed remarkable gains as the gold price soared to all-time highs of over $5,500 per ounce. The gold spot price has fallen by around 25% from its peak at the end of January and was last seen trading at $4,250 as of 6:05 a.m. E.T. on Monday. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF rose almost 200% in 2025, but has since shed some of those gains. The fund has dropped 27% year-to-date and is showing little sign of recovery as the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran intensifies. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon How the price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF compares to the gold spot price through 2026 so far. The outlook for miners has changed significantly over the past couple of weeks, with market volatility squeezing margins at both ends. "It is interesting to see resources sector reactions on both an energy supply shock and geopolitical risk event," said Rob Stein, head of resources research at Macquarie Capital. "The combination of the two with increased uncertainty is potentially driving change at...
tadamichi DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment ( FLUT ) rallied on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. lawmakers are preparing a bipartisan bill that would bar prediction markets from offering contracts that effectively function as sports bets. The measure would tighten the growing overlap between event markets and traditional gambling. The legislation, led by Nevada Democratic...
tadamichi DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment ( FLUT ) rallied on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. lawmakers are preparing a bipartisan bill that would bar prediction markets from offering contracts that effectively function as sports bets. The measure would tighten the growing overlap between event markets and traditional gambling. The legislation, led by Nevada Democratic Representative Dina Titus, targets “sports trades” and other "casino-style games" on platforms like Kalshi ( KALSHI ) and Polymarket ( POLYMARKET ), which have begun listing detailed markets on game outcomes and player performance while arguing they fall under federal derivatives and financial contract rules, rather than state gambling law. Supporters of the bill, including casino interests and state regulators, say prediction markets are exploiting a regulatory gap to provide nationwide sports wagering without complying with state licensing, consumer-protection rules, or tax obligations. It adds to the pressure on the prediction market industry from state enforcement actions, such as the Massachusetts and Nevada lawsuits, as evidence that the products closely resemble traditional sports betting and raise similar addiction and integrity concerns. Prediction market firms counter that their products are financial instruments used for information discovery and hedging, not gambling, and warn that a federal sports betting ban would stifle innovation and push activity offshore. Shares of DraftKings ( DKNG ) ripped a 9.0% gain in premarket trading, while Flutter Entertainment ( FLUT ) rose 8.3% in the early session. MGM Resorts International ( MGM ), which owns a 50% interest in BetMGM, was up 1.1%. More on sports betting stocks DraftKings: A Better Bet As The 'Super App' Launches (Upgrade) Flutter Entertainment plc (PDYPY) Presents at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 Transcript DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Analyst/Investor Day Prepared Remarks Transcript Bip...
Key Points For Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), it's all about tracking tanker freight futures. Freight futures are heavily impacted by geopolitical events. As a long-term investor, I'd never put my money into something that's focused on short-term movements. 10 stocks we like better than Amplify Commodity Trust - Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF › Like a shy 13-year-old standing awkwardly to th...
Key Points For Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), it's all about tracking tanker freight futures. Freight futures are heavily impacted by geopolitical events. As a long-term investor, I'd never put my money into something that's focused on short-term movements. 10 stocks we like better than Amplify Commodity Trust - Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF › Like a shy 13-year-old standing awkwardly to the side at a middle school dance, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (NYSEMKT: BWET) doesn't always garner much attention. But still, it's crushing the market, surging a remarkable 243% year-to-date. Despite its performance this year, I have no interest in investing in this ETF. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » The entire purpose of investing is to prepare for the future. While I have a brokerage account dedicated to shorter-term goals, my primary account is intended solely to fund retirement. However, investing in BWET is nothing like investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO). Spreading the risks VOO tracks the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which allows me to invest in companies I know and use, like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Just as importantly, it allows me to invest in many companies, reducing the risk to my portfolio when one or more falter for a time. With BWET, I'd be investing primarily in tanker shipping rates, which are highly sensitive to world events. When those prices drop, so does my ETF's value. Unlike ETFs that track a broad stock market index -- such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, or Dow Jones Industrial Average -- BWET tracks rising freight rates. About 90% of its portfolio consists of TD3C futures, which track the cost of transporting crude on large carriers from the Middle East to China. There's a clear reason why BWET's value has surged: The current dang...
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Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Summary My recommendation for Hugo Boss ( BOSSY )( HUGPF ) is a hold rating. Q4 2025 was clearly better, in my view, and the business looks cleaner than it did a few quarters ago. Retail returned to growth, inventory improved meaningfully, and cost control helped drive strong EBIT and EPS growth. That said, I do not think one quarter is enoug...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Summary My recommendation for Hugo Boss ( BOSSY )( HUGPF ) is a hold rating. Q4 2025 was clearly better, in my view, and the business looks cleaner than it did a few quarters ago. Retail returned to growth, inventory improved meaningfully, and cost control helped drive strong EBIT and EPS growth. That said, I do not think one quarter is enough to turn bullish yet. Management has framed 2026 as a reset year, with lower sales and lower EBIT expected. The setup is improving, but I believe the market still needs more proof that this can turn into a growth story. Business Overview BOSSY sells apparel, shoes, accessories, and other products under the BOSS and HUGO brands. It reports sales by product line: BOSS Menswear, BOSS Womenswear, and HUGO. It has a business model that sells through its own stores, wholesale partners, digital partners, and its own online channel. Earnings Review BOSSY reported Q4 2025 sales of EUR1.281 billion, up 2% y/y on a reported basis and up 7% on a currency-adjusted basis [CAB]. By brand, BOSS Menswear was up 8% y/y, BOSS Womenswear fell 1%, while HUGO grew 2%. By region, EMEA grew 9%, the Americas grew 6%, and Asia/Pacific declined 1%. By channel, brick-and-mortar retail grew 2%, brick-and-mortar wholesale grew 14%, and digital grew 12%. The good news here is that retail returned to growth, which was an improvement vs. earlier in the year. While gross margin only came in at 60.8%, down 160 bps y/y, because of good cost management (opex down 4% y/y and falling 350 bps as a percentage of sales to 48.8%), BOSSY still managed to drive EBIT growth of 22% y/y to EUR154 million and EBIT margin expansion of 190 bps to 12%. This led to 30% y/y EPS growth to EUR1.57. The Quarter Was Better And Showed Real Signs Of Improvement I think the most bullish takeaway here in the Q4 results is that BOSSY finished the year in better shape than it looked a few quarters earlier. The retail segment improved t...
Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images Key Takeaways Markets: International equities delivered solid gains in the fourth quarter to cap one of the best years for overseas stocks in decades. The core benchmark MSCI EAFE Index rose 4.9% in the quarter to finish up 31.2% for 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's gains of 2.7% for the quarter and 17.9% for the year. The market rally was broad with the MS...
Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images Key Takeaways Markets: International equities delivered solid gains in the fourth quarter to cap one of the best years for overseas stocks in decades. The core benchmark MSCI EAFE Index rose 4.9% in the quarter to finish up 31.2% for 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's gains of 2.7% for the quarter and 17.9% for the year. The market rally was broad with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advancing 4.7% for the quarter and 33.6% for the year. Contributors: Holdings in Siemens Energy ( SMNEY ), NatWest Group ( NWG ), AstraZeneca ( AZN ), Tokyo Electron ( TOELY ) and Celestica ( CLS ). Detractors: Holdings in Sea Limited ( SE ), Sony, Tencent ( TCEHY ) and Zai Lab ( ZLAB ) and. Stock selection in the health care and consumer discretionary sectors. Outlook: Historically, periods of declining interest rates have been associated with a more favorable backdrop for growth stocks, but we think that to reassert market leadership — specifically in technology software and hardware — it will probably come down to improved earnings. Performance Review Outside the U.S., growth stocks delivered strong absolute returns but meaningfully underperformed value stocks. The MSCI EAFE Growth Index rose 1.9% for the quarter, trailing the MSCI EAFE Value Index by 590 basis points. In such a value-dominated period, the Fund underperformed its primary MSCI EAFE benchmark. As a growth manager, we are selective in owning the companies typically thought of as value in our structural growth segment. We have increased this exposure, predominantly by increasing allocations to banks, where we are seeing a step change in earnings. U.K.-based NatWest Group was a leading contributor during the quarter, and we think banks can continue to work as we believe that interest rates will be stable and loan growth will likely increase along with higher fiscal stimulus and to fund AI and energy transitions. The Fund saw strength in holdings supporting the buildout of AI workload...
Pfizer Inc. said its experimental Lyme disease vaccine was 73% effective against the tick-borne illness, though fewer-than-expected cases in a study made it hard to determine how well it works on a large scale. While the vaccine reduced cases of Lyme, it did not clearly meet the clinical trial’s efficacy criteria. That doesn’t mean the shot failed to work. Pfizer gave it to people in the US, Canad...
Pfizer Inc. said its experimental Lyme disease vaccine was 73% effective against the tick-borne illness, though fewer-than-expected cases in a study made it hard to determine how well it works on a large scale. While the vaccine reduced cases of Lyme, it did not clearly meet the clinical trial’s efficacy criteria. That doesn’t mean the shot failed to work. Pfizer gave it to people in the US, Canada and Europe who were at high risk of exposure, but fewer than expected got infected, confounding the results. Pfizer said it’s confident in the vaccine’s potential and plans to submit it to regulatory authorities. The stock dropped 1% in trading before US exchanges opened, paring an earlier decline. Partner Valneva SE plunged as much as 13% in Paris, the most in two months. Pfizer has been struggling to find its footing after the Covid pandemic, forcing Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla to clinch expensive deals in cancer and obesity. But vaccines have long been a mainstay for the drugmaker, which sells shots for pneumonia and RSV. Bourla has pointed to the Lyme vaccine trial as one of the most important studies for Pfizer this year. An analysis of the full data is still ongoing, a spokesperson for Pfizer said, and the results will be submitted to a scientific meeting and a peer-reviewed journal. There’s currently no human vaccine for Lyme disease on the market. GSK Plc sold one in the late 1990s, but it was pulled in 2002 because of low demand. At the time, there were only about 16,000 cases of Lyme reported each year and they were mostly concentrated in the US Northeast. Read More: The Last Lyme Shot Failed. Will a New One From Pfizer Succeed? In the more than two decades since, cases of Lyme have surged. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that about 476,000 people are diagnosed and treated for Lyme each year. US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made Lyme disease a priority for his agency. Rates are also increasing in Europe. Lyme d...