OpenAI's Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market OpenAI , fresh off the largest private fundraising round in history, is facing mounting questions from some of its own backers over its $852 billion valuation and a whiplash-inducing pivot in strategy that prioritizes the higher-margin enterprise market at the expense of its consumer crown jewel -...
OpenAI's Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market OpenAI , fresh off the largest private fundraising round in history, is facing mounting questions from some of its own backers over its $852 billion valuation and a whiplash-inducing pivot in strategy that prioritizes the higher-margin enterprise market at the expense of its consumer crown jewel - all because Anthropic is starting to drink their milkshake with enterprise contracts. The company raised $122 billion last month from Silicon Valley and global capital - including SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and Thrive Capital. Yet even as Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar hailed the oversubscribed deal as proof of “strong conviction” in the company’s direction, early investors are voicing skepticism. One told the Financial Times t he pivot feels unfocused: “You have ChatGPT, a 1 billion-user business growing 50-100% a year - what are you doing talking about enterprise and code? ” Friar disagrees. " The suggestion that investors are not supportive of our strategy defies the facts ," she said. "Our . . . raise, the largest in history, was oversubscribed, completed in record time and backed by a broad set of global investors, reflecting strong conviction in both our direction, current business momentum and long-term value." The repositioning has indeed been swift and, to critics, symptomatic of the kind of strategic whiplash that often precedes trouble in hype-driven sectors. In December Chief Executive Sam Altman issued a " code red " urging staff to refocus on core business. High-profile consumer experiments have been quietly euthanized : the video-generation service Sora was shuttered , killing a planned $1 billion investment from Disney; an “adult” chatbot was mothballed ; parts of the ambitious Stargate data-center project were ditched ; and a $100 billion Nvidia deal was substantially scaled back . Even a recent “low hundreds of mil...
EschCollection/DigitalVision via Getty Images Higher energy prices and a potentially changing tune of the Federal Reserve with respect to rate cuts could be game-changing events this year for Bank of America Corporation ( BAC ). The bank just reported better-than-expected results for its first fiscal quarter, mainly due to strong activity in its consumer-oriented business. Most importantly, the ba...
EschCollection/DigitalVision via Getty Images Higher energy prices and a potentially changing tune of the Federal Reserve with respect to rate cuts could be game-changing events this year for Bank of America Corporation ( BAC ). The bank just reported better-than-expected results for its first fiscal quarter, mainly due to strong activity in its consumer-oriented business. Most importantly, the bank recorded significant gains in its net interest income -- which rose 17% year-over-year amid a higher-for-longer interest rate environment -- and managed to expand its loan portfolio. While the consensus has been until recently that the Federal Reserve will push for a federal fund rate cuts in 2026, an increase in inflation driven by the February start of a new war in the Middle East, has the potential to fundamentally strengthen the earnings picture of Bank of America. With the Fed likely going to delay rate cuts until inflation is back under control, the Wall Street bank faces an attractive interest rate landscape that could spur further NII gains in the quarters ahead. Data by YCharts Previous rating I rated Bank of America a Buy despite growing rate cut expectations at the beginning of the year -- Buy The Pullback On NII Strength -- because the Wall Street bank exhibited significant net interest income strength. In the first-quarter, Bank of America generated considerable net interest income and shifting interest rate expectations have the potential to boost the bank's earnings further in the quarters ahead. Since the consumer banking business is in excellent shape and the loan portfolio is growing, I maintain a Buy rating following the Bank of America's Q1 '26 earnings scorecard. Bank of America crushes Q4 ’25 expectations Bank of America published higher-than-expected earnings and revenue results for Q1 ’26, supported by strong results in the core lending business as well as in consumer banking: the bank published $1.11 per-share in GAAP earnings vs. a consensus est...
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I’ve consistently been a vocal bear of Nvidia ( NVDA ) over the past year or so, viewing it as overhyped and fully valued if not overvalued. I was recently bearish in my piece Nvidia At Significant Risk As Upside Priced In, But Downside Not as I argued that the positive expectations for capex are already fully (or even more than fully) priced in, wh...
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I’ve consistently been a vocal bear of Nvidia ( NVDA ) over the past year or so, viewing it as overhyped and fully valued if not overvalued. I was recently bearish in my piece Nvidia At Significant Risk As Upside Priced In, But Downside Not as I argued that the positive expectations for capex are already fully (or even more than fully) priced in, while the downside is not. NVDA has recently rallied in the past week or so after the ceasefire between US and Iran came into effect. NVDA stock price (Stockcharts) In this article we will discuss how recent developments may imply NVDA’s moat is far more vulnerable than commonly perceived. Anthropic and Elon Musk join the AI chip fray Anthropic’s latest model Mythos is reportedly so powerful it is not for public use before major companies have the chance to assess its impact. Yet Anthropic does not appear to be satisfied with just building AI applications, it may also be intending to designing AI chips on its own. This is the latest company to signal intentions to develop AI chips (other companies include Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOG ), META and so forth). Elon Musk is also joining the chip fray, declaring his intention to manufacturing semiconductors in America via Terafab . “Terafab is a joint venture between Musk’s Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, designed to consolidate every stage of semiconductor production under one roof — including chip design, fabrication, memory production, and packaging.” Chip manufacturing is a very capital intensive industry which is why tech giants have largely outsourced this task to other regions and focused on chip design and producing end products for consumers. Given the scale of Elon Musk’s operations, it makes sense to achieve so-called “ vertical integration ” to generate a steady supply of chips to use across his businesses. It’s the customer, stupid The advent of AI initially caused a broad rally among tech stocks but then it dawned inve...
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I’ve consistently been a vocal bear of Nvidia ( NVDA ) over the past year or so, viewing it as overhyped and fully valued if not overvalued. I was recently bearish in my piece Nvidia At Significant Risk As Upside Priced In, But Downside Not as I argued that the positive expectations for capex are already fully (or even more than fully) priced in, wh...
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I’ve consistently been a vocal bear of Nvidia ( NVDA ) over the past year or so, viewing it as overhyped and fully valued if not overvalued. I was recently bearish in my piece Nvidia At Significant Risk As Upside Priced In, But Downside Not as I argued that the positive expectations for capex are already fully (or even more than fully) priced in, while the downside is not. NVDA has recently rallied in the past week or so after the ceasefire between US and Iran came into effect. NVDA stock price (Stockcharts) In this article we will discuss how recent developments may imply NVDA’s moat is far more vulnerable than commonly perceived. Anthropic and Elon Musk join the AI chip fray Anthropic’s latest model Mythos is reportedly so powerful it is not for public use before major companies have the chance to assess its impact. Yet Anthropic does not appear to be satisfied with just building AI applications, it may also be intending to designing AI chips on its own. This is the latest company to signal intentions to develop AI chips (other companies include Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOG ), META and so forth). Elon Musk is also joining the chip fray, declaring his intention to manufacturing semiconductors in America via Terafab . “Terafab is a joint venture between Musk’s Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, designed to consolidate every stage of semiconductor production under one roof — including chip design, fabrication, memory production, and packaging.” Chip manufacturing is a very capital intensive industry which is why tech giants have largely outsourced this task to other regions and focused on chip design and producing end products for consumers. Given the scale of Elon Musk’s operations, it makes sense to achieve so-called “ vertical integration ” to generate a steady supply of chips to use across his businesses. It’s the customer, stupid The advent of AI initially caused a broad rally among tech stocks but then it dawned inve...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment thesis: initiating with a hold rating I initiate Rezolute ( RZLT ) with a hold rating, reflecting the company in a transitional phase where scientifically compelling biology and residual pipeline optionality are offset by meaningful clinical and regulatory uncertainty moving forward. MoA of Ersodetug (MoA of Ersodetug) My thesis hinges on the...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment thesis: initiating with a hold rating I initiate Rezolute ( RZLT ) with a hold rating, reflecting the company in a transitional phase where scientifically compelling biology and residual pipeline optionality are offset by meaningful clinical and regulatory uncertainty moving forward. MoA of Ersodetug (MoA of Ersodetug) My thesis hinges on the company's key value driver Ersodetug, an insulin receptor modulator , which has demonstrated a clear pharmacologic activity (absolute efficacy shown in ph2 and ph3), but the recent failure (not meeting primary and secondary endpoints) in the phase 3 congenital hyperinsulism (cHI) study shows that it did not translate into placebo-adjusted efficacy (not meeting both primary and secondary endpoints due to a high placebo response). Company pipeline overview (Company pipeline overview) Bulls argue that the phase 3 sunRIZE trial failure can be attributed to a high placebo response driven by behavioral confounding, the primary endpoint reduction in hypoglycemia events is measured via self-monitored blood glucose (SMBG), which is highly susceptible to behavioral modification. Phase 3 cHI data (Phase 3 cHI data) For example, SMBG is unblinded and patient/caregiver driven, meaning the frequency and timing of the measurement can change during the trial, and an increase in the monitoring intensity can inflate the placebo response. However, I believe this argument is weakened by the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data that showed (~32% reduction but did not reach statistical significance - p=0.3). I believe the CGM data was directionally supportive, failure in the CGM endpoint weakens the argument mateirally, and reliance on the post-hoc analysis introduces regulatory credibililty risk. I believe there is likely very limited appetite for the FDA to accept their data (considering both primary and secondary endpoints failed) and to allow accelerated aprpoval for cHI. My base case e...
Kirk Fisher/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I previously rated Lowe's Companies, Inc. ( LOW ) as a Hold in April 2025, given the uncertain tariff risks on their performance metrics. In this article, I shall discuss why I am cautiously upgrading LOW as a Buy upon a dip, thanks to the promising growth initiatives through the Pro segment and the discounted valuations against its peer. LOW Faces Num...
Kirk Fisher/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I previously rated Lowe's Companies, Inc. ( LOW ) as a Hold in April 2025, given the uncertain tariff risks on their performance metrics. In this article, I shall discuss why I am cautiously upgrading LOW as a Buy upon a dip, thanks to the promising growth initiatives through the Pro segment and the discounted valuations against its peer. LOW Faces Numerous Headwinds & Tailwinds Entering FY2026 LOW 1Y Stock Price (Trading View) Since my last Hold rating, LOW has been rather volatile, as observed in the sideways trading cadence between the $280s resistance levels and the uptrend support line established since the November 2020 bottom. 1. FQ1'26 Preview With LOW expected to report their FQ1'26 earnings call on May 18, 2026 (Pre-Market), I urge readers to closely monitor their performance against the previously offered FY2026 guidance across: the comparable sales growth by +1% YoY at the midpoint, the revenue guidance of $93B (+7.7% YoY), the adj operating margin of 11.7% ( -0.4 points YoY /+2.6 from FY2019 levels of 9.1% ), and the adj EPS of $12.50 (+1.7% YoY), since these numbers appear rather cautious, against the historical top/bottom-line growth profile at a 6Y CAGR of +3%/+13.6% (between 2019 and 2025) and the 5Y pre-pandemic profile at +5.1%/+16.3%, respectively. Part of LOW's headwinds may be attributed to March 2026 already bringing forth higher inflationary pressures from the higher oil prices and the ongoing Iran conflict, with the rest of 2026 depending on an earlier resolution and/or a much needed macroeconomic normalization. With market analysts already expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming FOMC meeting, I can understand why the management has highlighted that the consumers' " big-ticket discretionary DIY projects " are likely to be on the back burner as the spending divergence in the K shaped economy also expands , despite the notably aging US homes . As a result, I urge readers to ...
A view of the vessels passing through Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on the condition that the strait be reopened, seen in Oman on April 8, 2026. Shadi J. H. Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images At least nine oil tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz this week as the U.S. and Iran contest control of the vital sea lane. A big...
A view of the vessels passing through Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on the condition that the strait be reopened, seen in Oman on April 8, 2026. Shadi J. H. Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images At least nine oil tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz this week as the U.S. and Iran contest control of the vital sea lane. A big tanker named the RHN entered the strait from the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday, according to data from LSEG. The tanker is a very large crude carrier, or VLCC, that can carry about 2 million barrels of oil. It sails under the flag of Curacao, a Caribbean island, but is owned by a Chinese company. Another VLCC named the Alicia crossed the strait into the Persian Gulf on Tuesday. It was one of at least four tankers of varying sizes that exited or entered the strait yesterday, the data showed. Tanker transits Tuesday were 90% below traffic on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Traffic has plunged during the war due to the threat of Iranian attacks. Transits have remained very low even after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on April 7. The U.S. and Iran are contesting control of the strait. The U.S. Navy has implemented a blockade of maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports after negotiations to end the war failed last weekend. Iran, meanwhile, has repeatedly claimed that it controls the sea lane. The strait is a vital trade route that connects the major oil producers in the Middle East to global markets. About 20% of world crude supplies passed through the narrow waterway before the war. The collapse of tanker traffic through the strait has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. The International Energy Agency said Tuesday "resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on ...
(Bloomberg) -- US stocks traded near an all-time high following a rally powered by optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East, with investors eyeing confirmation of new talks and a fresh spate of corporate earnings.The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, after closing within a whisker of its late-January record in the previous session. Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley rose as their equity ...
(Bloomberg) -- US stocks traded near an all-time high following a rally powered by optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East, with investors eyeing confirmation of new talks and a fresh spate of corporate earnings.The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, after closing within a whisker of its late-January record in the previous session. Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley rose as their equity traders posted strong revenue beats. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up 0.7%.Stock and bond markets ar
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crypto sentiment has been stuck in extreme fear for over six weeks now. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are all sitting 45% to 70% below their 2025 peaks, and oil above $100 is not helping anyone’s mood. Yet in the middle of all this, seven spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States have collectively attracted roughly $1.44 billion in net inflows si...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crypto sentiment has been stuck in extreme fear for over six weeks now. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are all sitting 45% to 70% below their 2025 peaks, and oil above $100 is not helping anyone’s mood. Yet in the middle of all this, seven spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States have collectively attracted roughly $1.44 billion in net inflows since launching in late 2025. That is a lot of money walking into a product class that didn’t even exist a year ago. I think there’s something worth paying attention to here, and it is not just the headline inflow number. A Quick Look at the Landscape XRP trades around $1.33 as of mid-April, which puts it about 64% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025. The token’s market cap sits near $82 billion, ranking it fourth among cryptocurrencies. Daily trading volume has slowed to roughly $2 billion, and speculative interest measured by futures open interest has dropped 73% from its peak of $10.8 billion to around $2.4 billion. The seven U.S. spot ETFs hold a combined $1 billion in assets under management. That’s down from a January peak of $1.65 billion — but the decline is almost entirely a function of XRP’s price falling 43%, not investors pulling money out. When the funds launched, they went 35 consecutive trading days without a single net outflow. Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum spot ETFs matched that streak in their early months. Who Actually Owns These ETFs? This is the part I find most interesting. Canary Capital’s XRPC leads with $260 million in AUM, followed closely by Bitwise at $257 million and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ at $211 million. Goldman Sachs holds $153.8 million across four of these products. Bitwise, ETF.com (April 2026) But here is the catch. About 84% of XRP ETF assets still come from retail investors. The big institutional wave that people keep talking about has not really materialized in size yet. A Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institution...
Kaewta Suphan/iStock via Getty Images First Quarter 2026 The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the 60% S&P 500 / 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. The equity portfolio returned -5.16 1 for the quarter versus -4.33% for the S&P 500 Index. The fixed income portfolio returned 0.09% versus -0.05% for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggrega...
Kaewta Suphan/iStock via Getty Images First Quarter 2026 The Fund (Investor Class) underperformed the benchmark, the 60% S&P 500 / 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, for the quarter, but outperformed since inception. The equity portfolio returned -5.16 1 for the quarter versus -4.33% for the S&P 500 Index. The fixed income portfolio returned 0.09% versus -0.05% for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The Fund's allocation was 56.1% in equities, 40.2% in fixed income, and 3.7% cash. At the sector level for the equity portfolio, the largest contributors to performance were energy and materials, while financials and health care were the largest detractors. We actively rebalanced during the quarter, taking advantage of unusually wide dispersion in stock performance across the market. We trimmed in areas that rated higher and redeployed into businesses that we believe are significantly undervalued, particularly in software and financials. The valuation gap between high and low multiple stocks remains unusually wide today, and we are positioned for that spread to narrow. We believe the low valuation, strong growth characteristics, and ample diversification of our portfolio today bode well for the future. Top Contributor | Detractor Highlights Top stock contributors Phillips 66 ( PSX ) ConocoPhillips ( COP ) Glencore ( GLCNF ) Top stock detractors Salesforce ( CRM ) Capital One Financial ( COF ) Lithia Motors CI A ( LAD ) New stock purchases Accenture CI A ( ACN ) Adobe ( ADBE ) Centene ( CNC ) Netflix ( NFLX ) Roper Technologies ( ROP ) Sysco ( SYY ) Final stock sales BorgWarner ( BWA ) Deere ( DE ) Elevance Health ( ELV ) Fiserv ( FISV ) General Motors ( GM ) Molina Healthcare ( MOH ) OpenLane ( OPLN ) Warner Bros Discovery ( WBD ) Top contributor Phillips 66 was the top contributor during the quarter. The U.S.-headquartered downstream energy company's stock price rose as it benefited from higher crack spreads (the difference in price between crude oil and ref...
Nuthawut Somsuk/iStock via Getty Images A High-Yield Mortgage REIT in Recent News For today's article, I went shopping for high-yield REITs trading for under $10 and came across one whose yield is above 15% as of this writing, Arbor Realty Trust ( ABR ), who is described in its profile as a mortgage REIT who invests in various loan types and mortgage-related securities. Earlier this month, another...
Nuthawut Somsuk/iStock via Getty Images A High-Yield Mortgage REIT in Recent News For today's article, I went shopping for high-yield REITs trading for under $10 and came across one whose yield is above 15% as of this writing, Arbor Realty Trust ( ABR ), who is described in its profile as a mortgage REIT who invests in various loan types and mortgage-related securities. Earlier this month, another investor news website wrote that Citizens ( CFG ) lowered its price target on this stock somewhat yet kept the "market outperform" rating. Although I've covered many REITs, this is my initial coverage of Arbor, and it is also a holistic preview of the stock ahead of its next earnings results still several weeks away on May 8th. A Thesis Firmly in Neutral Territory My research today pointed to this stock being a hold. Although it showed some strengths driven by macro factors, certain performance vs peers, a high yield, and new loan growth, I also think its robust and diverse portfolio will have to show steady operating cashflow growth again, further reduction in delinquent loans, and technical signals to the upside. ABR - rating worksheet (author) Keep reading to learn more about how each of the above 8 rating categories drove this stock's overall score. Betting That the Macro Environment Benefits Multi-Family Lending I will kick off this 8-point rating analysis on a positive note, giving this sector a bullish view, driven by expected further resilience in the multi-family niche. When thinking about the big picture, while the traditional picture of a building & loan company or traditional bank being the place to go to borrow for a home, the role of mortgage REITs in providing liquidity in this sector has grown over the years, and they certainly have been on my coverage watchlist for a while, yet no two are completely alike and that is an important distinction. From Arbor's Q4 infosheet (pg 2), we can get a flavor of where their focus is, and it is a diversification across o...