Artificial intelligence is driving a new technological revolution and has become the ultimate arena for great power competition. The U.S. and China sit firmly in the global top tier, but they are playing distinctly different games. America is leveraging its early-mover advantage to dominate frontier technologies and high-end markets. China is relying on a massive domestic market and a comprehensiv...
Artificial intelligence is driving a new technological revolution and has become the ultimate arena for great power competition. The U.S. and China sit firmly in the global top tier, but they are playing distinctly different games. America is leveraging its early-mover advantage to dominate frontier technologies and high-end markets. China is relying on a massive domestic market and a comprehensive manufacturing base to rapidly scale applications. Fully understanding this geopolitical rivalry requires looking beyond momentary technological leads and analyzing the divergent development models and strategic choices of both nations.
Katrina Wittkamp/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment action I reiterated my buy rating for Burlington Stores ( BURL ) previously, as I believed the SSSG weakness was not structural and that it would recover to mid-single-digits by Q4. What has changed so far is that SSSG rebounded to 4% in Q4 2025 despite a weather hit and a deliberate pullback in tariff-pressured categories, while margins s...
Katrina Wittkamp/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment action I reiterated my buy rating for Burlington Stores ( BURL ) previously, as I believed the SSSG weakness was not structural and that it would recover to mid-single-digits by Q4. What has changed so far is that SSSG rebounded to 4% in Q4 2025 despite a weather hit and a deliberate pullback in tariff-pressured categories, while margins still expanded nicely. The margin expansion story has also gotten better. Reported sales understate how good demand really was Bloomberg To start, I think it is important for readers to realize that BURL did much better than the headline numbers in the recent results update. Firstly, a 4% SSSG on top of 6% last year is already strong. But that could have been much better, as management said that BURL could have done more sales in Q4, especially in toys, gifting, housewares, bedding, and seasonal décor. The issue was not that customers were not buying. The issue was that BURL had already cut back its plans in businesses where tariffs had made the margin math less attractive. So this was a choice made to “grow less” to protect margins, not that demand was weak. In hindsight, it would have been great for BURL to capture those demands, as absolute earnings growth is more important than margins (in my opinion). Nonetheless, this tells us that the consumer demand backdrop is strong, and BURL could have printed low teens two-year stacked SSSG. Another element to consider is the winter storm. Management noted that November and December ran at a mid-single-digit SSSG. January also ran at a mid-single-digit SSSG pace before the winter storm disrupted several hundred stores. The estimate provided by management was that the storm cost ~100 bps of SSSG for the Q4 quarter and several points for January. Then February reverted back on track (I assume this meant back to a mid-single-digit pace). If we combine that self-imposed pullback to not capture lower-margin demand plus the weather dis...
Getty Images Background It has been a month since my previous article on Nebius ( NBIS ), which focused on the company’s Q4 2025 results. Since then, at least three major news items have emerged that significantly impact the company's investment case. To recap, in my previous analysis , I used fairly conservative assumptions, specifically projecting that all of Nebius's capital requirements throug...
Getty Images Background It has been a month since my previous article on Nebius ( NBIS ), which focused on the company’s Q4 2025 results. Since then, at least three major news items have emerged that significantly impact the company's investment case. To recap, in my previous analysis , I used fairly conservative assumptions, specifically projecting that all of Nebius's capital requirements through 2028 would be met via debt at a 9% interest rate. As a result, my valuation stood at $27.4 billion for Nebius AI and $36.9 billion for the entire company, or $129 per share. Since that update, the company has announced: A $2 billion investment from Nvidia ( NVDA ); A new $12 billion contract with Meta ( META ), with an option to expand to $27 billion; A $4.33 billion capital raise through two new convertible bond issues. Looking ahead, the primary takeaway from these developments is that the company has secured sufficient capital to fund the mid-range of management’s CapEx guidance for this year. Let’s break down how these news items affect the forecasts presented in my previous column , after which I will provide an updated valuation. We will proceed chronologically, starting with the investment from Nvidia. Investment from Nvidia On March 11, Nebius announced an agreement under which Nvidia will invest $2 billion in the company, alongside a strengthening of their technical collaboration. As part of the deal, Nebius issued prepaid warrants giving Nvidia the right to purchase 21.06 million shares at a price of $0.0001. Consequently, the effective purchase price in this agreement was $94.94 per share. This investment was largely expected, given that Nvidia's prior stake in Nebius was quite small. It is strategically vital for Nvidia to cultivate clients outside of Big Tech, as the latter increasingly shifts toward in-house chip production. To remind you, Nvidia’s previous investment in Nebius was part of a $700 million round in December 2024 at $21 per share. At that time,...