Goldman Sees Risk Of Food Price Spike Amid Fertilizer Disruption The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions. Goldman commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven penned a note on Tuesday warning clients that chokepoint risks...
Goldman Sees Risk Of Food Price Spike Amid Fertilizer Disruption The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions. Goldman commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven penned a note on Tuesday warning clients that chokepoint risks in the Strait of Hormuz may affect global agricultural prices. "The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route in the global nitrogen fertilizer market, which accounts for 60% of global fertilizer use and is especially important for crops like corn and other grains," Thomas and Struyven wrote in the note. They warned that Hormuz disruptions not only constrain global fertilizer availability, but also that, with seaborne LNG flows from the region limited , any ability to boost fertilizer production elsewhere would be impacted. "Given fertilizer accounts for ~20% of grain costs, the largest potential boost to grain prices is more likely to come from reduced grain supply. Fertilizer disruptions may reduce grain production both through yield losses from delayed or sub-optimal nitrogen application and potential acreage shifts toward less fertilizer-intensive crops," the analysts said. They noted that the US is viewed as "currently relatively insulated because the conflict began just ahead of the planting season," adding that the most exposed areas include Europe, Australia, and the Southern Hemisphere, where crop calendars are later. Even though US farmers may be relatively insulated, that does not mean US crop prices will remain low, as analysts expect global crop prices to rise. Also on Tuesday, Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21 to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. The report was released by Russia's state-run news agency TASS, citing the Agriculture Ministry. Last week, former central bank adviser Alexandra...
UK urged to tackle transnational repression, as dissidents say Beijing has targeted them with tax letters and other threats “I didn’t feel safe, even though I’m not based in Hong Kong any more,” said Christopher Mung Siu-tat after getting tax bills from Hong Kong authorities. “The regime can reach me by their long arms wherever I am.” Siu-tat, the executive director at the Hong Kong Labour Rights ...
UK urged to tackle transnational repression, as dissidents say Beijing has targeted them with tax letters and other threats “I didn’t feel safe, even though I’m not based in Hong Kong any more,” said Christopher Mung Siu-tat after getting tax bills from Hong Kong authorities. “The regime can reach me by their long arms wherever I am.” Siu-tat, the executive director at the Hong Kong Labour Rights Monitor, a UK-based NGO, fled Beijing’s sweeping national security laws years ago. The letters are the latest example of a series of transnational repression (TNR) tactics the 54-year-old has faced in recent years. Continue reading...
Heartland Advisors, an investment management company, released its “Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity Strategy” fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Large- and mega-cap stocks posted another quarter of outperformance in Q4, despite a brief broad-based performance across market caps. The Russell 2000® Index of small stocks returned 2.19% in the […]
Heartland Advisors, an investment management company, released its “Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity Strategy” fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Large- and mega-cap stocks posted another quarter of outperformance in Q4, despite a brief broad-based performance across market caps. The Russell 2000® Index of small stocks returned 2.19% in the […]
Getty Images It has been a little more than a year since I published my last article about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( EL ). In March 2025, I wrote a bullish article and argued that the stock is finally a “Buy” after declining more than 80% from its previous peak. In the conclusion of my last article, I wrote: In my opinion, Estée Lauder is certainly a good investment at this point and a “Bu...
Getty Images It has been a little more than a year since I published my last article about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( EL ). In March 2025, I wrote a bullish article and argued that the stock is finally a “Buy” after declining more than 80% from its previous peak. In the conclusion of my last article, I wrote: In my opinion, Estée Lauder is certainly a good investment at this point and a “Buy”. However, it is not a screaming “Buy” and the risk of the stock declining even lower certainly exists. Despite short-term downside risks, I would assume that Estée Lauder will trade for a higher stock price in five or ten years from now. And following the article, it certainly seemed like I was right. Following a final drop to $48, the stock increased to slightly above $120 and came close to doubling in value compared to when I wrote the article. Data by YCharts Right now, the stock is still trading about 8% higher, which is an acceptable performance over 12 months, but in the last few weeks, the stock lost about 40% in value again, bringing it close to the 2025 low again. Yesterday, it was reported that Estée Lauder and the Spanish beauty company Puig Brands, S.A. ( PUIGF ) are in talks about a potential merger. While the news made Puig’s stock price jump in a first reaction, Estée Lauder’s stock price declined almost 10% following the news. In the following article, we answer the question whether these two companies are good investments and if a potential merger is making sense. But we start by briefly looking at the last reported results of both businesses. Estée Lauder Results We briefly look at the last quarterly (or annual) results of the two companies and start with Estée Lauder. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales increased from $4,004 million in Q2/25 to $4,229 million in Q2/26 – resulting in 5.6% year-over-year growth. Organic net sales increased 4% in the second quarter. And while the company reported an operating loss of $580 million in the same q...
EyeEm Mobile GmbH/iStock via Getty Images There are few American cities more steeped in lore and mythology than Las Vegas, Sin City, America’s Playground itself. The flashy, bright monument to entertainment rising out of the barren Mojave Desert around it is the city of Elvis and his impersonators, Sinatra, gambling, partying, of betting it all and letting it ride. It’s also home to VICI Propertie...
EyeEm Mobile GmbH/iStock via Getty Images There are few American cities more steeped in lore and mythology than Las Vegas, Sin City, America’s Playground itself. The flashy, bright monument to entertainment rising out of the barren Mojave Desert around it is the city of Elvis and his impersonators, Sinatra, gambling, partying, of betting it all and letting it ride. It’s also home to VICI Properties Inc. ( VICI ), which owns and rents out to casino operators, some of the most iconic hotels and casino on the Vegas Strip like Caesar’s Palace, The Venetian Resort, and the MGM Grand along with dozens more properties comprising 127 million square feet of entertainment space across 26 U.S. States and one Canadian Province. VICI Properties And at present, this Real Estate Investment Trust ( REIT ) pays a dividend that yields 6.7% . That’s more than triple the average historical yield of an S&P 500 dividend stock. At today’s valuation, the stock makes for an incredibly attractive long-term income play. Interested? So was I, that’s why I added this one to my personal portfolio recently. Let’s get into it. The Opportunity: Viva Las Vegas As I mentioned before, VICI is an REIT, meaning it has to pay out 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders as a dividend. I like REITs because they’re usually pretty straightforward and VICI is no different. It’s heavily weighted in Las Vegas itself but does have some nice diversification, but it’s as simple as that, it owns and rents out properties to tenants - mostly casino operators. The two biggest tenants make up the overwhelming bulk of VICI’s revenue, Caesars Entertainment ( CZR ) at 39% and MGM Resorts International ( MGM ) at 34%. The average length of VICI’s lease term is 39.6 years and it has a 100% occupancy rate at its 54 gambling properties, 39 “experimental” non-gambling entertainment properties, and 4 golf courses. And given that the beating heart of America’s gambling industry has always been Las Vegas, I don’t view being...
In highly unusual move, Metropolitan police have released full transcript of call made by PM’s then chief of staff UK politics live – latest updates Morgan McSweeney did not disclose he was the prime minister’s chief of staff when he reported his phone stolen , according to a transcript released by the Metropolitan police. The Met has admitted the wrong address was recorded for the theft meaning t...
In highly unusual move, Metropolitan police have released full transcript of call made by PM’s then chief of staff UK politics live – latest updates Morgan McSweeney did not disclose he was the prime minister’s chief of staff when he reported his phone stolen , according to a transcript released by the Metropolitan police. The Met has admitted the wrong address was recorded for the theft meaning that it was thought to be a street in Tower Hamlets, rather than a Westminster street of the same name. Continue reading...
Son Cameron confirms 77-year-old has the disease Toshack managed Swansea and Madrid among many The Liverpool and Wales great John Toshack has been diagnosed with dementia, according to his son Cameron. Toshack had a celebrated playing career with the Merseyside club, scoring more than 100 goals and winning nine trophies between 1970 and 1978, and earning 40 caps for Wales before turning to managem...
Son Cameron confirms 77-year-old has the disease Toshack managed Swansea and Madrid among many The Liverpool and Wales great John Toshack has been diagnosed with dementia, according to his son Cameron. Toshack had a celebrated playing career with the Merseyside club, scoring more than 100 goals and winning nine trophies between 1970 and 1978, and earning 40 caps for Wales before turning to management, including roles with Real Sociedad, Real Madrid and his national team. Continue reading...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Overview To the dismay of many retail investors, Abivax ( ABVX ) remains a standalone company despite a flurry of rumors . I didn’t mind this much when I last assessed the stock (“ Buy ”) in January. You see, Abivax is advancing a first-in-class, oral miR-124 enhancer, obefazimod, in large indications like ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease ( C...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Overview To the dismay of many retail investors, Abivax ( ABVX ) remains a standalone company despite a flurry of rumors . I didn’t mind this much when I last assessed the stock (“ Buy ”) in January. You see, Abivax is advancing a first-in-class, oral miR-124 enhancer, obefazimod, in large indications like ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease ( CD ). The stock caught everyone’s attention after reporting sparkling Phase 3 UC induction data last Summer. After jumping over 500% immediately following the news, ABVX has climbed another 60%, as the market has had time to fully digest the results. Data by YCharts I also think some M&A premium is “baked” into the stock. Abivax reported FY25 results on Monday, bringing into focus its year ahead as a standalone company. Financials Abivax ended 2025 with $610M in cash (converted from €530.4M at a 1.15 USD/EUR rate). They believe this will provide a cash runway "into Q4 2027." For context, Abivax spends roughly $200M and $80M per year in R&D and G&A, respectively. So, its cash runway estimate is pretty consistent with its historical cash burn rate. Upcoming Milestones Investors do have a few things to look forward to this year. UC Phase 3 maintenance results are expected in late Q2. Abivax hopes to then submit a UC NDA in the 2H 2026. In CD, Phase 2b ( ENHANCE-CD ) induction results are slated for Q4. CD CD induction is a bit of a crowded space, with treatments like Skyrizi and Rinvoq setting a high bar for efficacy. ENHANCE-CD is a pretty robust trial, so positive results likely de-risk obefazimod’s Phase 3 CD program. ENHANCE-CD evaluates two separate doses versus placebo for Clinical Remission and Endoscopic Response at Week 12, among a few other outcome measures. Below, I’ve created a Scenario table that details possible induction outcomes. Author's Compilation Clinical Remission and Endoscopic Response rates >40% would approach high-performing biologics like Skyrizi , whi...