NEW YORK (AP) — Amazon (AMZN)said it's closing all of its Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh locations, as the online behemoth focuses on its grocery delivery, Whole Foods Market and a new “supersized” store concept. The Seattle-based online retailer said Tuesday in a blog post that it plans to convert some of those soon-to-be shuttered locations into Whole Foods Market stores. The company operates 57 Amazon Fresh stores and 15 Amazon Go stores. “While we’ve seen encouraging signals in our Amazon-branded physical grocery stores, we haven’t yet created a truly distinctive customer experience with the right economic model needed for large-scale expansion,” the company said in the post. Amazon noted that customers can continue to shop Amazon Fresh online in available areas for “fast and convenient delivery.” The last day of operation for Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go stores is Feb. 1, with the exception of its California locations, which will remain open longer to comply with state requirements, Amazon said. Since Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods Market in 2017, it's seen more than 40% sales growth and expansion to more than 550 locations, it said. It now plans to open more than 100 new Whole Foods Market stores over the next few years. At the same time, shoppers are turning to online delivery for everyday essentials and fresh food, Amazon said. The online retailer is now delivering groceries to 5,000 U.S. cities and towns, including thousands served by same-day delivery where customers can shop produce and other perishables along with staples. Based on strong customer feedback, it said it plans to expand its same-day delivery service of fresh groceries to more areas this year. Still, Amazon pledges to continue to experiment with new physical store formats. The company revealed on Tuesday its plans to open a “new supercenter” physical retail concept designed for customers to shop Amazon’s broad selection across fresh groceries, household essentials, and general merchandise. The c...

Earnings Call Insights: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Q4 2025 Management View CEO Stephen Hemsley stated the company has "taken a critical look across all our products and our U.S. market positions, focusing on what is working, what needs more attention and what no longer makes sense for us." He emphasized operational discipline, technology adoption, and divestiture of non-core assets as central to positioning the business for sustainable growth. Hemsley announced, "We finished 2025 with adjusted earnings per share of $16.35, which was slightly ahead of our expectations." He also highlighted a $1.6 billion net noncash charge, aligning with prior communications and described as essential for restoring earnings quality. Hemsley projected 2026 adjusted EPS of greater than $17.75, targeting at least 8.6% growth, and outlined double-digit improvements at UnitedHealthcare alongside single-digit gains at Optum segments. He acknowledged ongoing Medicare and Medicaid funding pressures but signaled confidence in improved UnitedHealthcare performance. Timothy Noel, CEO of UnitedHealthcare, explained that "the 2025 medical cost trend was in line with our expectation of approximately 7.5% and supports our 2026 trend expectation of 10%." He detailed plans for Medicare Advantage membership contraction of 1.3 to 1.4 million and anticipated Medicaid membership losses between 565,000 to 715,000, primarily due to funding and eligibility pressures. Noel highlighted a strategic focus on margin recovery, stating repricing and product repositioning should yield "approximately 13% adjusted operating earnings growth across all of UHC, principally from the improvement in serving commercial and Medicare market needs." He projected UnitedHealthcare membership contraction between 2.3 million to 2.8 million, offset by margin expansion and $1 billion in anticipated AI-enabled operating cost reductions. Patrick Conway, CEO of Optum Rx, described a strategic refocus, with OptumHealth targeting "operatin...

Earnings Call Insights: First Bank (FRBA) Q4 2025 Management View Patrick Ryan, President and CEO, stated, "2025 overall in Q4, in particular, did not play out exactly as we expected, but the overall results were solid, nonetheless." He highlighted that the net interest margin of 3.7% in the fourth quarter was 20 basis points higher than in the same quarter last year, and emphasized improvements in return on average assets and return on tangible common equity. Ryan acknowledged underperformance in small business loan products, noting, "the overall level of delinquency and charge-offs exceeded what we believe to be accessible levels," and detailed changes to credit parameters and sales practices aimed at improving results in 2026. He also pointed to a nearly $2 million increase in total fee income and effective management of noninterest expenses, supported by a onetime benefit from the sale of an OREO asset. Strategic goals for 2026 include closing the gap with peers on cost of funds, increasing noninterest income, and reducing the noninterest expense to average asset ratio. Andrew Hibshman, Executive VP, Treasurer & CFO, reported, "For the 3 months ended December 31, 2025, we recorded net income of $12.3 million or $0.49 per diluted share, which translates to a 1.21% return on average assets." He described elevated loan payoffs totaling $135 million, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter decline in total loans. "Despite the elevated payoffs, loans were up $149 million or approximately 5% over the last 12 months with C&I leading the way." Hibshman noted a $21 million decline in total deposit balances, driven by a $27.1 million reduction in brokered deposits, and reported an increase in net interest income of $633,000 from the third quarter, primarily due to net interest margin expansion. Darleen Gillespie, EVP & Chief Retail Banking Officer, explained, "The decline in total deposits were largely attributed to our decision to reduce higher-cost brokered deposits in ligh...

Earnings Call Insights: AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q4 2025 Management View Peter Federico, President, CEO & Chief Investment Officer, emphasized AGNC's strong results in 2025, noting "AGNC's 11.6% economic return in the fourth quarter drove our impressive full year economic return of 22.7%. Even more noteworthy, AGNC's total stock return in 2025 was 34.8% with dividends reinvested, nearly double the performance of the S&P 500." He highlighted the stability in mortgage spreads and the constructive investment environment emerging as the Fed shifted to a more accommodative stance. Federico stated that AGNC is "very well positioned to generate compelling risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for our shareholders." Bernice Bell, Executive VP & CFO, reported, "For the fourth quarter, AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share. Our economic return on tangible common equity was 11.6% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.60 increase in tangible net book value per share driven by lower interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads to benchmark interest rates." Bell also noted, "We ended the fourth quarter with leverage of 7.2x tangible equity, down from 7.6x at the end of the third quarter." Federico explained that the company shifted its hedge mix toward a greater proportion of interest rate swaps, with the allocation to swap-based hedges increasing to 70% of the portfolio from 59% the prior quarter. Outlook Management expects lower funding costs from the October and December rate cuts and anticipated future cuts, increased stability in funding markets, and the shift in the hedge mix to provide a "moderate tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income." Federico stated, "as the largest pure-play agency mortgage REIT, we believe AGNC is very well positioned to generate compelling risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for our shareholders." The supply and demand ou...

Earnings Call Insights: Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Q4 2025 Management View CEO J. Powell Brown opened the call noting, "The fourth quarter capped off another year of strong top and bottom line financial performance. For the full year, we grew our revenue by 23% through a combination of M&A, organic revenue growth and strong growth in our contingent commissions." He highlighted the completion of the largest acquisition in company history with Accession, welcoming over 5,000 new teammates and indicating satisfaction with integration progress. Brown addressed competitive pressures, stating, "As of today, approximately 275 of our former teammates have joined this start-up, taking with them customers currently representing known annual revenues of $23 million. As we've done in the past, we will defend our rights in court and already have obtained an injunction." He emphasized a continued customer-centric and disciplined approach. CFO R. Watts reported, "For the quarter, Accession's total revenue was approximately $405 million. This is below the guidance of $430 million to $450 million. As a result of refining our revenue recognition estimates by quarter, revenue, margins and adjusted earnings per share were impacted for the quarter. However, these revisions do not change our annual expectations for the business." Watts further explained, "Our EBITDAC margin was 32.9%, remaining flat versus the fourth quarter of the prior year. This was a good result considering the negative 200 basis point impact of Accession mentioned earlier and the prior year flood claim processing revenue." Outlook Watts stated, "For next year, we anticipate contingents for Specialty Distribution will be down approximately $15 million due to certain onetime adjustments in 2025 and ultimately subject to storm claim activity." Watts provided guidance: "For Specialty Distribution, we anticipate organic growth to be somewhat flat in the first quarter due to flood claims processing revenue in the first qua...

Peach_iStock Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) set a new intraday record on Tuesday, briefly reaching 6,988.72 and trading within roughly 0.2% of the closely watched 7,000 milestone anticipated by many investors. The move underscores the market’s ongoing momentum and resilience amid a steady flow of earnings and economic data. However, the advance has not been uniform across the index. A handful of S&P 500 constituents are showing signs of technical strain, with several stocks registering oversold readings based on the relative strength index. Below are the 10 most oversold stocks in the S&P 500 as the benchmark index pushes to fresh highs today. No. 1: Roper Technologies ( ROP ), RSI of 12.37. No. 2: Abbott Laboratories ( ABT ), RSI of 20.37. No. 3: Humana ( HUM ), RSI of 23.66. No. 4: HP Inc. ( HPQ ), RSI of 24.34. No. 5: GoDaddy ( GDDY ), RSI of 25.70. No. 6: Fidelity National Information Services ( FIS ), RSI of 25.91. No. 7: Ares Management ( ARES ), RSI of 27.65. No. 8: Broadcom ( BR ), RSI of 28.18. No. 9: Apollo Global Management ( APO ), RSI of 29.04. No. 10: Netflix ( NFLX ), RSI of 29.21. S&P 500 Funds: ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( FXAIX ), ( VFIAX ), ( VFFSX ), and ( SWPPX ). More on markets Pantheon Macro suggests that markets may be overpricing inflation risks Oppenheimer sees strong start to earnings season as it favors growth sectors Government shutdown fears spike according to prediction markets Apollo points out S&P 500 profit growth concentrated in tech ahead of Mag 7 earnings Rick Rieder gains noticeable momentum in Fed Chair race, according to Polymarket

Volkswagen to recall over 44,000 US vehicles over battery fire risk, NHTSA says Reuters

在不到三周的时间里，特朗普接连发出四项关税威胁。一般情况下，这类威胁会令投资者感到不安、使企业首席执行官们神经紧张，经济学家们会纷纷调低对目标国家的增长预测。 然而，金融市场和企业高管们对特朗普最新涉及伊朗贸易伙伴、格陵兰岛支持者、加拿大和韩国的警告大多表现得不以为意，认为这些仅仅是其为了获得筹码或改变对方行为的言论而采取的行动，并不会动真格。 根据研究的一项新分析，特朗普并不总是“认怂”。更准确地说，研究发现他将威胁付诸行动的情况约占四分之一。约43%的威胁后来被撤回（有时伴随着特朗普宣称取得了所谓的胜利），或者从未正式实施。 机构经济研究的Nicole Gorton-Caratelli和Chris Kennedy审查了从2024年11月大选到上周日期间，特朗普发出的 49项关税威胁或其政府发起的贸易调查（该统计不包括他最新目标韩国）。研究发现，其中超过一半的威胁尚未完全落地。 观察这49项声明的时间线可以发现，大多数完全执行或进入调查阶段的动作发生在2月至9月之间。 每月的分类数据显示，随着对生活成本（负担能力）的担忧压低了他的民意支持率，特朗普的关税威胁在去年年底趋于减少。 “这一规律并非绝对完美，” Gorton-Caratelli和Kennedy在研究报告中写道。“总的来说，我们看到特朗普收回了他最引人注目的威胁，而这些威胁往往是那些会剧烈推高美国有效关税税率，或威胁到贸易休战的言论。” 责任编辑：丁文武

Source: Bloomberg, 3:50

2025 年 12 月 9 日，美国华盛顿哥伦比亚特区，马里纳・S・埃克尔斯联邦储备委员会大楼正在进行翻修工程。该大楼是美国联邦储备系统理事会的主要办公场所。 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普最快或于本周公布下一届美联储主席提名人选，且已明确表态，其提名者必须推动大幅降息。但无论最终提名何人，这位新任主席都将面对一个全新的政策制定委员会 —— 而这个委员会对降息的抵触情绪可能会更加强烈。 每年年初，美联储 12 家地区性储备银行的行长中，会有 4 位轮流进入美联储极具影响力的利率制定委员会，担任接下来八次政策会议的投票委员。本年度的新任投票委员为达拉斯联储行长洛里・洛根、克利夫兰联储行长贝丝・哈马克、费城联储行长安娜・保尔森以及明尼阿波利斯联储行长尼尔・卡什卡里。纽约联储行长，以及包括美联储主席在内的美联储理事会全部 7 名成员，则拥有永久投票权。 洛根与哈马克在近期公开表态中均坦言，通胀率已连续五年高于美联储设定的 2% 目标，这一状况令二人深感担忧。 这意味着，短期内她们不太可能支持降息举措，因为降息可能会刺激消费支出，进一步加剧物价上行压力。 美联储官员将于本周二至周三召开本年度首次议息会议，外界普遍预计此次会议将维持利率不变。 去年 12 月，美联储官员曾预测，2026 年全年仅会降息一次。 所谓的 “通胀鹰派” 投资者与经济学家将支持严控通胀政策的央行官员称为 “鹰派”，而那些更关注劳动力市场状况的官员则被称作 “鸽派”。这也就意味着，相较于委员会中的鸽派成员，鹰派人士支持降息的可能性更低。 美联储肩负着国会赋予的双重使命：稳定物价与促进充分就业。然而，自特朗普政府去年推出一系列大规模经济政策后，这两大目标同时受到威胁，美联储的政策平衡工作也随之变得错综复杂。 尽管去年劳动力市场走弱促使美联储三度降息，但特朗普推行的关祱政策 —— 以及可能加征的新关祱 —— 仍有可能进一步推 高通 胀。如此一来，主张美联储在本年度降息超过一次的论调，就显得缺乏说服力。 哈马克或许会成为本年度委员会中立场最强硬的鹰派人物。她在去年 12 月 21 日接受《华尔街曰报》采访时表示，“利率可以在当前水平维持一段时间，直至我们获得更明确的证据，证明通胀率正回归目标区间，或是就业市场出现实质性走弱。” 她还称：“我正高度专注于确保通胀率回归目标水平。这是我们的核心目标之一，完成这项任务至关重...

The New Standard for Cloud Compute AMD

Tesla’s Moment of Truth: Can AI Ambition Offset an Automotive Slump? The Chronicle-Journal

ASML stock has more than doubled in the past year. Investors will be watching orders and High-NA adoption when it reports earnings.

Tesla’s Moment of Truth: Can AI Ambition Offset an Automotive Slump? FinancialContent

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA, Financials) has released a new set of open-source artificial intelligence models designed to generate faster and more cost efficient weather forecasts. Announced at the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting in Houston, the Earth-2 models are part of Nvidia's broader push into climate and scientific computing. The tools aim to replace traditional weather simulations which are computationally expensive and time consuming with AI systems that can match or exceed their accuracy. Mike Pritchard, Nvidia's director of climate simulation research, said the technology could have major business uses, particularly in insurance, where firms need to model extreme events such as hurricanes or floods. AI based forecasts can run 1,000 times faster, allowing companies to simulate thousands of possible outcomes with far less computing cost. The models include systems for 15 day global forecasts, six hour severe storm predictions across the U.S., and data integration from multiple weather sensors. Nvidia's expansion into climate AI reflects its broader strategy to apply its chips and software beyond traditional computing and gaming, tapping into real world applications that depend on high-performance modeling.

Getty Images In the months that followed my previous coverage , everyone has seen many interesting changes in Expedia Group, Inc. ( EXPE ). Even I was surprised when its price jumped from $218 to $258 in only one trading day. While I reiterated my buy rating, I’ve already noted that EXPE was nearing its limit considering its valuation and price consolidation. Yet, its strategic operations and strong Q3 2025 results justified the optimistic market view of this stock. And while valuation suggests some caution, its promising outlook may still support some upside. Technicals adhere to it as bullish signals persist despite the increased selling volume recently. Why I Am Reiterating A Buy Since my initial coverage, Expedia Group, Inc. has sustained its bullish strength as the price continues to rally. I admit I became more cautious in my most recent coverage. And in my view, it was logical considering its valuation and flattening price trend. However, EXPE has seemed to defy logic after it leapt by nearly 20% in just a day. But if we look at it carefully, the sustained uptrend made sense. In fact, I also had some realizations that prompted me to reiterate my buy rating even if it has already exceeded my previous TP or target price. 1. Valuation Shows More Than Meets The Eye. If you can remember, I used cash per share in my previous coverage to assess the stock. Using the P/CPS Ratio, I derived a TP of $231.83, prompting me to give a buy a rating. As I updated it, the stock appears much more expensive today because it’s already trading at 5.73x versus the five-year average of 4.55x. If I use this to derive its value, the TP will be $215.28. The same applies to P/S using sales per share. As you can see, the stock also appears expensive than in 2020-2024 average. This leads to a TP of $220.19. P/S And P/CPS Ratio (Author's Computation) However, we should not immediately conclude that EXPE is already overvalued. After all, price ratios only show whether the stock is cheaper o...

Investors with an interest in Automotive - Foreign stocks have likely encountered both Volkswagen AG Unsponsored ADR (VWAGY) and Byd Co., Ltd. (BYDDY). But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look. We have found that the best way to discover great value opportunities is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with a great grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The Zacks Rank is a proven strategy that targets companies with positive earnings estimate revision trends, while our Style Scores work to grade companies based on specific traits. Currently, Volkswagen AG Unsponsored ADR has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while Byd Co., Ltd. has a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell). This system places an emphasis on companies that have seen positive earnings estimate revisions, so investors should feel comfortable knowing that VWAGY is likely seeing its earnings outlook improve to a greater extent. But this is just one piece of the puzzle for value investors. Value investors are also interested in a number of tried-and-true valuation metrics that help show when a company is undervalued at its current share price levels. The Value category of the Style Scores system identifies undervalued companies by looking at a number of key metrics. These include the long-favored P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, cash flow per share, and a variety of other fundamentals that help us determine a company's fair value. VWAGY currently has a forward P/E ratio of 5.38, while BYDDY has a forward P/E of 17.64. We also note that VWAGY has a PEG ratio of 1.06. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. BYDDY currently has a PEG ratio of 2.39. Another notable valuation metric for VWAGY is its P/B ratio of 0.27. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total l...

The day Alex Pretti was shot 10 times in the street by federal agents, I was delivering a eulogy for my grandfather, who died the way we’re supposed to: old, asleep, surrounded by family. Because it’s my job to coordinate visuals for this website, I locked myself in a bathroom stall, watched a video of the shooting twice, and emailed a photographer, asking if he could get onto the streets and start documenting what was happening in Minneapolis. As I reviewed photos of protesters and tear gas in the wake of his death, I didn’t realize, in the hours before his name was released to the public, that the man millions of people had seen lying facedown on the pavement from multiple angles of eyewitness video was my childhood best friend. We have become familiar with being barraged by videos of people we do not know getting detained and ripped from their families and beaten by agents whose salaries we pay. As social media does its work putting bits and pieces together about each day of unfolding tragedy, more and more of us will realize that those pieces belong to someone we know. Alex and I grew up across the street from each other in a quiet neighborhood in Green Bay, Wisconsin, a town maniacal about its football team and without much else to do. The street we lived on had recently been a field, now populated with a smattering of three-bedroom houses rapidly constructed in a treeless subdivision. I met Alex when he was three years old and I was four. Our family’s lives were exceedingly visible to each other, without fences or much foliage, and we knew the comings and goings of one another’s households. Alex was an easy playmate: generous, curious, sweet. His mother always ensured he had a tidy haircut and a clean room. He had a little sister. He told me the truth about Santa, and I told him the truth about where babies come from. We rollerbladed and had sleepovers, excitedly dragging our sleeping bags across the street from one house to the other. We built palatial forts ...

West Ham are considering loan moves for Tottenham’s Antonin Kinsky and Chelsea’s Axel Disasi but will need to send Igor Julio back to Brighton if both moves are to go through. Nuno Espírito Santo has strengthened his attack by signing Taty Castellanos and Pablo Felipe for a package worth up to £47m and is looking to boost his side in their battle against relegation by bringing in a goalkeeper and a defender. West Ham have inquired about Kinsky, who joined Spurs from Slavia Prague last year, and would like the goalkeeper on loan with an option to buy. However the 22-year-old Czech wants regular football and it is unclear whether he would dislodge Alphonse Areola in West Ham’s lineup. Kinsky may stay at Spurs, where is backup to Guglielmo Vicario, if he is not to be first choice under Nuno. West Ham would also need to find a solution around their current No 2, Mads Hermansen, who has struggled since joining from Leicester last summer. Nuno has spoken about rebalancing his squad and he is aware of the need to improve West Ham’s defence. They have not kept a clean sheet since August and are looking at a loan for Disasi. The Frenchman has not played for Chelsea this season and is up for sale. A complication around Disasi and Kinsky both securing temporary moves to West Ham is that Premier League sides only have two domestic loan slots. West Ham signed Igor on loan from Brighton last summer but the defender has been a bit-part player. West Ham, who are close to selling Lucas Paquetá to Flamengo, would need to strike an agreement with Brighton for the Brazilian to return. West Ham have agreed a deal to sign Adama Traoré from Fulham on an initial six-month deal. The winger played for Nuno at Wolves and will provide cover for Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville. Bournemouth have completed the signing of teenage Brazilian forward Rayan from Vasco da Gama. The 19-year-old has reportedly cost £24.7m with a further £5.6m in potential add-ons, signing a five-year contract with...

England's prop problems continue to mount in the run-up to the Six Nations with Harlequins' Fin Baxter ruled out of the tournament. The 23-year-old has featured in England's last 18 matches, but surgery on a foot injury has ended his hopes of continuing that run. Baxter was named among five England players rehabilitating alongside the main 36-strong Six Nations squad on Friday. With Ellis Genge backed up by Bevan Rodd and Emmanuel Iyogun on the loose-head side, there will be no replacement called up for Baxter. However, Rodd has made only two appearances for England since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, while Iyogun is yet to win his first cap. England take on Wales at home in their opening match of the tournament on 7 February.

美部署ICE人員支援冬奧 意大利副總理：不容許現身街頭 米蘭市長：不歡迎濫殺無辜民兵 To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video 【有線新聞】美國移民及海關執法局人員在冬奧期間前往意大利，協助保障美國代表團安全。 國土安全部指，移民及海關執法局人員在下月米蘭科爾蒂納冬奧期間，前往意大利支援國務院外交安全局工作，目的是保障美國代表團安全，審查並降低跨國犯罪集團帶來的風險，強調冬奧保安工作由意大利官員負責，不會展開移民執法行動。 意大利副總理兼外長塔亞尼強調不會容許美國執法人員在意大利街道出現，米蘭市長薩拉形容移民及海關執法局人員是濫殺無辜的民兵，不歡迎他們。

Broadcom (AVGO) to Maintain AI Server Compute ASIC Leadership by 2027 GuruFocus

Gemini Trust Co. , the cryptocurrency exchange owned by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss , said it will shut down its digital-art-token marketplace, Nifty Gateway, in February. Users can no longer list, purchase or sell such tokens on the platform, which entered withdrawal-only mode on Friday. Customers must pull their assets by Feb. 23, after which Gemini will continue to support the tokens via the Gemini Wallet, the company said in a statement . Nifty Gateway is a marketplace for non-fungible tokens, known NFTs, that are stored on blockchain, the technology underpinning crypto. The platform was founded by twin brothers Duncan and Griffin Cock Foster and acquired in 2019 by Gemini. It handled some $300 million of trading in 2021, when speculation in NFTs was cresting. But overall trading volume in the industry has plunged since prices tumbled. In the third quarter of last year it totaled around $1.58 billion, down 87% from the first three months of 2022, according to data tracker DappRadar.

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Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images By Matthew Schaffer Cutting rates further risks overstimulating demand, when inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s two-percent target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to leave its interest rate target unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at this week’s January meeting. After a series of rate cuts in the second half of last year and a continued push for further easing , a pause may feel anticlimactic. But the leading monetary policy rules suggest another cut would be a mistake. The latest Monetary Rules Report from AIER’s Sound Money Project shows that the Fed’s current policy rate now sits below the range suggested by several well-known rules. Most of the rules point to an appropriate policy rate somewhere between 3.85 and 4.25 percent, depending on how one weighs inflation, employment, and overall spending in the economy. In that context, additional rate cuts would go beyond what current economic conditions justify. Why Stop Here? Chair Jerome Powell has described the Fed’s recent rate cuts as “risk-management” moves — steps taken to guard against the possibility that a cooling labor market could tip into something worse. That framing made sense last year, when unemployment was drifting upward and the outlook for growth was more uncertain. Since then, the economic picture has changed. Despite a continued slowdown in job creation , the unemployment rate in December was only slightly higher than in the first half of the year. More importantly, real GDP grew much faster than expected in the third quarter of 2025 , as total spending in the economy rebounded sharply. At the same time, inflation remains above the Fed’s two-percent target, and progress toward that goal has been uneven. The risks that motivated rate cuts last year have not disappeared, but they no longer justify continued risk management through easier monetary policy. What the Rules Say Monetary policy rules provide a consistent way to translate ec...