Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) has been in freefall. The stock is down -32% over the past week, and Wall Street analysts remain bearish on the stock. The Street’s consensus price target sits at $40.73, with 7 analysts rating the stock a Hold and 7 a Buy. But Citi has broken sharply from that pack, cutting ... Citi Is the Latest Bank to Sour On Super Micro Computer Stock
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) has been in freefall. The stock is down -32% over the past week, and Wall Street analysts remain bearish on the stock. The Street’s consensus price target sits at $40.73, with 7 analysts rating the stock a Hold and 7 a Buy. But Citi has broken sharply from that pack, cutting ... Citi Is the Latest Bank to Sour On Super Micro Computer Stock
thexfilephoto/iStock via Getty Images Introduction After covering all of the largest names in the midstream industry and more particularly MLPs, I want to dive into how investors can get a basket exposure to all of those great companies without the hassle of K-1s, as well as individual risk. In that sense, I will be reviewing the Alerian MLP ETF ( AMLP ) and why I believe that this will be a stron...
thexfilephoto/iStock via Getty Images Introduction After covering all of the largest names in the midstream industry and more particularly MLPs, I want to dive into how investors can get a basket exposure to all of those great companies without the hassle of K-1s, as well as individual risk. In that sense, I will be reviewing the Alerian MLP ETF ( AMLP ) and why I believe that this will be a strong investment AMLP Specifities The Alerian MLP ETF tracks the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, which captures the largest and most liquid midstream MLPs in North America. With roughly $12.13B in assets , this is the undisputed heavyweight in the MLP ETF space. The fund holds just 13 names, and that concentration is by design. The top five holdings are currently Sunoco ( SUN ), Enterprise Products Partners ( EPD ), Western Midstream Partners ( WES ), Energy Transfer ( ET ), and Plains All American Pipeline ( PAA ) with each carrying over 12% of the portfolio. You can directly assess that I’ve been bullish on most of these names and how they are prone to go higher in the future. To resume this, every midstream company in AMLP has activities that generally provide stable cash flows, that are highly independent of volatile energy prices thanks to their toll-booth businesses. Currently, the ETF is on the more expensive side, with 0.85% of annual expenses compared to the 0.5% broad ETF average, or even MLPA’s ( MLPA ) 0.46%. Though it is interesting to mention that AMLP has historically outperformed MLPA despite the fee gap, and it offers the advantage of liquidity compared to its smaller peers. Distribution Yield The fund is paying a distribution yield of 7.5%, which is simply incredible considering the current average of the MLP sector and the broader market at 1.15%. But what excites me more would be the growth track record. After the massive 21% distribution cut during the COVID pandemic , when the entire energy complex was in freefall, AMLP has grown its payout steadily for ...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images For quite some time now, I have been a fan of companies that are involved in the uniform and facilities services industries. They appeal to a wide range of the economy. And that provides some degree of stability, especially when you consider that not all industries perform the same. This means that, when times are tough, companies like this have an oppo...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images For quite some time now, I have been a fan of companies that are involved in the uniform and facilities services industries. They appeal to a wide range of the economy. And that provides some degree of stability, especially when you consider that not all industries perform the same. This means that, when times are tough, companies like this have an opportunity to be resilient, especially if they service industries that are holding up well. I'm also a big fan, as you likely know if you follow my work closely, of attractively priced firms. Unfortunately, many companies in these spaces have a tendency to trade at lofty multiples. But one exception to that is Vestis Corporation ( VSTS ). Unfortunately, it appears to me as though at least a good portion of this discount can be attributed to poor financial performance. The good news is that management is working hard to rectify this. They do expect revenue to, unfortunately, remain weak this year. But through cost-cutting efforts, there is the expectation that bottom line results should improve somewhat. If management can come through on this promise, I would argue that enough upside exists to justify a soft “Buy” rating. However, until we see evidence of this in progress, I would argue that rating it a “Hold” is the right choice. Trying Vestis on for size For those not familiar, Vestis Corporation operates as a provider of uniform rentals and workplace supplies. The company services customers throughout the U nited States and Canada, with many of the goods that it offers including uniforms, mats, towels, linens, restroom supplies, first aid supplies, safety products, and more. Although the enterprise has more than 75 years of experience, with over 300,000 customer accounts under its belt, as a corporate entity, it's relatively new. In fact, the company was spun off from Aramark ( ARMK ) back in September 2023. The hope would be that, as a standalone business, it would have the...
ElenaNichizhenova/iStock via Getty Images This article attempts to use the roller coaster stock price movement of The Boston Beer Company, Inc. ( SAM ), the owner of the Samuel Adams beer brand, to highlight the importance of valuation discipline in stock investment. I will also provide my own analysis of the current valuation, growth prospects, and competitive advantages of Boston Beer to answer ...
ElenaNichizhenova/iStock via Getty Images This article attempts to use the roller coaster stock price movement of The Boston Beer Company, Inc. ( SAM ), the owner of the Samuel Adams beer brand, to highlight the importance of valuation discipline in stock investment. I will also provide my own analysis of the current valuation, growth prospects, and competitive advantages of Boston Beer to answer this question: Is Boston Beer a yesteryear's growth story? Or has its stock price decline made it a long-term GARP (Growth At Reasonable Price) opportunity? SAM’s Roller Coaster Ride Boston Beer currently sports a market cap of $2.25 billion. Compared to $130 billion of Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ( BUD ), which owns Budweiser; $58.5 billion of Heineken N.V. ( HEIA:CA ); $25 billion of Constellation Brands, Inc. ( STZ ), which owns the US rights of Corona Light and Modelo Especial; and $7.8 billion of Molson Coors Beverage Company ( TAP ), Boston Beer's market cap and scale of operations are much smaller. If it can leverage its existing operational infrastructure effectively to take more market share from its larger competitors, it may have the potential to grow its market cap to over $10 billion, resulting in a 5-10 bagger. Except that SAM has been there, done that, at least sort of, around the year 2021 (the chart below is from Seeking Alpha). SA Its stock traded around $360 in March 2020 when Americans were hunkering down as the COVID virus stormed over the continent. While other stocks declined due to the pandemic-induced shockwave, SAM took off, briefly exceeding $1,300 per share, or $13 billion market cap, on April 23, 2021, after the company reported a whopping YOY growth of 38.9% for revenue and 32.6% for gross profit for Y2020. The height of the drinking party did not last long. By June 2022, as its revenue and gross profits growth decelerated, the stock dropped back to $341. It has been generally declining since then to reach today’s $225 or so. The magnitude of th...
phakphum patjangkata/iStock via Getty Images By Michael Barry, President, O3 Plan Advisory Services Private equity investments have, in defined benefit plans, historically served as an effective way to diversify risk and increase returns. Regulatory developments, especially President Trump’s recent Executive Order (EO) on “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors”, have poin...
phakphum patjangkata/iStock via Getty Images By Michael Barry, President, O3 Plan Advisory Services Private equity investments have, in defined benefit plans, historically served as an effective way to diversify risk and increase returns. Regulatory developments, especially President Trump’s recent Executive Order (EO) on “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors”, have pointed the way to how a PE investment program may be included in a defined contribution (DC) plan. In this article, we examine key considerations for DC plan fiduciaries seeking to incorporate private equity in their investment program. Regulatory Background In 2020, the Trump 1.0 Department of Labor (DOL) issued an Information Letter with respect to the inclusion of private equity investments in a “designated investment alternative” in a participant-directed defined contribution plan (e.g., a 401(k) plan), concluding that, as a general matter, “a plan fiduciary would not … violate [ERISA fiduciary rules] solely because the fiduciary offers a professionally managed asset allocation fund with a private equity component as a designated investment alternative for an ERISA covered individual account plan.” At the same time, the DOL emphasized that private equity in DC plans raises “special issues,” including complex structures and strategies, longer time horizons, and typically higher and more complex fees. In 2021, the Biden DOL issued a Supplemental Statement that reiterated these concerns and stressed that fiduciaries must carefully evaluate whether a target date fund with a private equity sleeve provides appropriate diversification and net returns over time, is managed by capable and experienced professionals, limits its private equity exposure appropriately, and aligns with the plan’s specific characteristics and participant needs. In 2025, President Trump issued an Executive Order, “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors”, directing the DOL to furthe...
ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance sees the oil market flipping into contango — trader jargon for a situation where oil for delivery next month or later in the year commands higher prices than near-term barrels. Lance commented during a fireside chat at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Tuesday. Contango is typically bearish, signaling anemic demand and ample suppl...
ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance sees the oil market flipping into contango — trader jargon for a situation where oil for delivery next month or later in the year commands higher prices than near-term barrels. Lance commented during a fireside chat at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Tuesday. Contango is typically bearish, signaling anemic demand and ample supplies. For now, the US crude benchmark contract is in backwardation — contango’s bullish alter ego. For more on CERAWeek Conference Coverage Day 2, click here for our TOPLive blog.
Marco_Bonfanti/iStock via Getty Images I am downgrading KVH Industries, Inc. ( KVHI ) to a Sell following a strong move from the ~$5 level at the time of my original publication to approximately $9–10 today. The initial thesis was predicated on a deeply mispriced, underfollowed microcap trading at ~2–3x EBITDA with a substantial net cash position, improving operating leverage, and a credible path ...
Marco_Bonfanti/iStock via Getty Images I am downgrading KVH Industries, Inc. ( KVHI ) to a Sell following a strong move from the ~$5 level at the time of my original publication to approximately $9–10 today. The initial thesis was predicated on a deeply mispriced, underfollowed microcap trading at ~2–3x EBITDA with a substantial net cash position, improving operating leverage, and a credible path to value realization via strategic actions such as a buyback or takeout. That asymmetry has largely played out. At current levels, the margin of safety has materially declined. The stock no longer reflects a clear dislocation but instead a more balanced risk/reward profile. While strategic value remains and a takeout is still possible, the investment case now relies more heavily on event-driven outcomes rather than valuation support. At the same time, industry dynamics have evolved. Competitive pressure from LEO providers and shifting bandwidth economics introduce greater uncertainty around growth, margins, and terminal value. While management has taken rational steps to reposition the business, the path to unlocking full value is less certain and likely more prolonged than initially anticipated. This is no longer a high-conviction asymmetric setup. It is a situation where investors are being paid less for taking on more uncertainty. For investors who established positions in the mid-single digits, I believe the correct action is to realize gains and redeploy capital into opportunities with clearer asymmetry and stronger forward return potential. In investing, discipline at exit matters as much as entry. This is an exit.
GummyBone/iStock Editorial via Getty Images There are seasons in the market where I've noticed good (even great) earnings don't push stocks continually higher. Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) is a really good recent example with its massive and historic quarter and guide. Yet, it's down nearly 13% since then. But NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) is also a good candidate for great earnings, but not great...
GummyBone/iStock Editorial via Getty Images There are seasons in the market where I've noticed good (even great) earnings don't push stocks continually higher. Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) is a really good recent example with its massive and historic quarter and guide. Yet, it's down nearly 13% since then. But NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) is also a good candidate for great earnings, but not great stock performance. In the past, I've looked at it simply: the market has reached its peak for rewarding good fundamentals. But I would still scratch my head as to "why now?" It wasn't until I realized fundamentals don't drive markets; sentiment, and more specifically, mass market human psychology, does. It turns out sentiment leads and fundamentals lag. Furthermore, it explains these seemingly seasonal times when the markets just "go down to go down" or, more directly, "go down on good news." There are narratives trying to explain the stock performance away, but they fall flat when scrutinized. Trying to find the needle of a bearish point in a haystack of great business fundamentals is a wasted effort because it leads nowhere; it merely scratches an intellectual itch while your long position sees profits erode. At the end of the day, I don't care about the reason per se as much as I care about whether my trades and investments are profitable and getting more profitable. After a life's worth of watching the markets and 12 years writing about them, I've realized the simple truth: the only thing that matters is what the share price says. It doesn't matter if I think the market is "wrong," the number didn't change. I can either find the truth of how the stock price got to where it is, or I can remain arrogant and say, "I know I'm right; everyone else (read: the market) is wrong." This article can serve as an example of how to either fight against the forces of the market or take the first step in understanding how to align yourself and your thinking with the market's mind to k...
GummyBone/iStock Editorial via Getty Images There are seasons in the market where I've noticed good (even great) earnings don't push stocks continually higher. Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) is a really good recent example with its massive and historic quarter and guide. Yet, it's down nearly 13% since then. But NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) is also a good candidate for great earnings, but not great...
GummyBone/iStock Editorial via Getty Images There are seasons in the market where I've noticed good (even great) earnings don't push stocks continually higher. Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) is a really good recent example with its massive and historic quarter and guide. Yet, it's down nearly 13% since then. But NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) is also a good candidate for great earnings, but not great stock performance. In the past, I've looked at it simply: the market has reached its peak for rewarding good fundamentals. But I would still scratch my head as to "why now?" It wasn't until I realized fundamentals don't drive markets; sentiment, and more specifically, mass market human psychology, does. It turns out sentiment leads and fundamentals lag. Furthermore, it explains these seemingly seasonal times when the markets just "go down to go down" or, more directly, "go down on good news." There are narratives trying to explain the stock performance away, but they fall flat when scrutinized. Trying to find the needle of a bearish point in a haystack of great business fundamentals is a wasted effort because it leads nowhere; it merely scratches an intellectual itch while your long position sees profits erode. At the end of the day, I don't care about the reason per se as much as I care about whether my trades and investments are profitable and getting more profitable. After a life's worth of watching the markets and 12 years writing about them, I've realized the simple truth: the only thing that matters is what the share price says. It doesn't matter if I think the market is "wrong," the number didn't change. I can either find the truth of how the stock price got to where it is, or I can remain arrogant and say, "I know I'm right; everyone else (read: the market) is wrong." This article can serve as an example of how to either fight against the forces of the market or take the first step in understanding how to align yourself and your thinking with the market's mind to k...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Co-authored by Relative Value. Overview When market conditions show increased uncertainty and the associated high volatility, we tend to look for safer trading/investment ideas. Pair trades among similar securities of the same issuer are a prime example of such an approach, as they offer virtually no credit risk. With this short article, we'll have a look a...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Co-authored by Relative Value. Overview When market conditions show increased uncertainty and the associated high volatility, we tend to look for safer trading/investment ideas. Pair trades among similar securities of the same issuer are a prime example of such an approach, as they offer virtually no credit risk. With this short article, we'll have a look at Annaly Capital Management ( NLY ) and a pair trade opportunity, represented by its preferred stocks. The Series G preferred stock of the company ( NLY.PR.G ) has been overvalued compared to the other floating rate preferreds of the company. Now, with the falling equity market and the rising benchmark yields, we see an increased probability for a widening of the credit spreads and a potential for NLY-G to be fairly priced to its brothers. Company basics and performance Annaly Capital Management is the largest, by market cap, mortgage real estate trust in the US. As of the end of 2025, the company has approximately a fifth of its capital allocated to mortgage servicing rights, another fifth to residential credit, and the remaining large part to agency MBS. NLY capital allocation (annaly.com) As Annaly is investing in the agency MBS with way higher leverage than the other two main investment interests it has, the assets it holds in AMBS represent close to 90% of the whole investment portfolio: Annaly Capital portfolio (annaly.com) An upshifting yield environment is beneficial for the MSR portfolio, as it tends to increase its book value and also makes the prepayment less appealing. These, however, represent less than 10% of Anally Capital Management's investment portfolio. The by far largest chunk, the agency MBS, are long-duration fixed-rate securities: MBS types (annaly.com) Being fixed-income vehicles, their valuation is inversely correlated with the shifts of their benchmark yields, so a rise in the long-term treasuries is bad news for the largest part of Annaly's portfo...