美伊局势，依然胶着。 北京时间周二晚间，欧洲股市集体走高。截至19时45分，德国DAX30指数、欧洲斯托克50指数涨幅均超过1%。美股期货也集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅超过0.40%。 市场分析人士指出，尽管美国对伊朗港口的封锁已生效，但投资者对美伊和平谈判有望重启抱有期待。摩根士丹利表示，油气价格已经见顶，标普500指数正在构筑底部。 据新华社报道，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社14日报道称，巴基斯坦外交部一名消息人士透露，巴方已提议美国和伊朗在巴首都伊斯兰堡举行新一轮谈判。该消息人士表示，目前尚未就美伊新一轮谈判确定具体时间安排。 欧美股市集体上涨 周二晚间，欧洲股市集体走强。截至19时45分，德国DAX30指数涨1.02%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.01%，英国富时250指数涨1.23%，法国CAC40指数涨0.70%，OMX哥本哈根20指数涨近2%。 美股期货也集体上涨。截至19时45分，纳指期货涨0.45%，标普500指数期货涨0.19%，道指期货涨0.05%。美股盘前，存储芯片概念股延续涨势，闪迪、美光科技、希捷科技涨超2%，西部数据涨超3%。大型科技股也集体上涨，微软涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.70%，特斯拉涨近2%，谷歌涨超1%，英伟达涨0.39%。 此前，美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗方面周一早上致电美方表示“希望达成协议”，但他不会达成任何允许伊朗拥有核武器的协议。 然而，即使是微乎其微的缓和希望，也足以鼓励急于抓住任何积极消息的投资者。德意志银行分析师在一份报告中表示：“鉴于进一步谈判的可能性，投资者仍然对实现局势缓和抱有希望，尽管昨日美国已开始实施封锁。” 路透社14日援引4名消息人士的话报道说，美伊代表团将于本周晚些时候重返伊斯兰堡进行谈判，随后更新报道援引伊朗驻巴基斯坦大使馆官员的话称，两国代表团最早可能在本周或下周初举行谈判。报道称，伊朗代表团预留了17日至19日的时间。 据新华社报道，伊朗驻巴基斯坦大使馆新闻官哈迪·戈尔里兹14日对记者说，个别西方媒体关于下一轮伊美谈判地点和时间的报道“毫无根据”。下一轮谈判可能会在任何时间、任何地点举行，目前尚无任何官方信息。 随后，新华社援引伊朗迈赫尔通讯社报道称，巴基斯坦外交部一名消息人士透露，巴方已提议美国和伊朗在巴首都伊斯兰堡举行新一轮谈判。 另据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月14日获悉，法国总统府办公室透露，法国和英国将于17...

格隆汇4月14日｜1. 美国三大股指期货齐涨，纳指期货涨0.57%，标普500指数期货涨0.28%，道指期货涨0.06%。 2. 欧股主要指数集体上涨，德国DAX指数涨1.16%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC指数涨0.88%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.19%。 3. 消息人士：美国和伊朗谈判团队将于本周晚些时候重返伊斯兰堡，举行和平谈判。 4. 英伟达发言人盘后否认与PC制造商进行收购谈判。 5. 苹果新款平价电脑MacBook Neo首批产品售罄，向供应商紧急追加大量订单。 6. 亚马逊将以每股90美元的价格收购通信运营商全球星，交易预计将于2027年完成。 7. 市调机构Emarketer：Meta今年全球广告营收可望达2434.6亿美元，或超越谷歌成为数字广告龙头。 8. 甲骨文与Bloom Energy达成战略协议，计划采购高达2.8吉瓦(GW)的燃料电池系统。 9. 消息称高德将发布机器狗产品，为阿里巴巴首款具身机器人。 10. 美国联合航空公司CEO提出与竞争对手美国航空合并的可能性。 11. 汇丰银行宣布在美国推出代币化存款服务(TDS)。 12. 雪佛龙通过资产置换巩固委内瑞拉重油业务主导地位。 13. Lucid任命新CEO，并扩大与优步在Robotaxi领域的合作。 14. 摩根大通Q1营收505亿美元，投行业务收入增长38%，每股收益5.94美元。 15. 花旗Q1营收为246.3亿美元，每股收益3.06美元，同比大增56%。 16. 强生Q1销售额241亿美元，经调整后每股收益2.7美元，均超预期。 (格隆汇)

Shares in mobile-satellite company Globalstar surged 9% premarket after Amazon announced a deal to acquire it. The deal will allow Amazon's Leo satellite nentwork to offer direct-to-device connections. Globalstar shareholders will get the option of $90 a share in cash or 0.3210 share of Amazon common stock per Globalstar share with a value capped at $90 a share.

财联社4月14日讯（记者 王海春） 上海 一季度 房地产 大宗交易市场，出现较为明显的回温迹象。 据仲量联行今日披露的数据，2026年第一季度，大量资金涌入 上海 物业 大宗交易市场，内环内资产成交势头高涨，累计达成24宗交易，成交额录得约146亿元，同比上升27%。 本季度出现多个有代表性的大宗交易，包括，深圳一家民营实业企业以16.2亿元的价格，收购了毗邻上海 新天地 商圈的甲级写字楼新茂大厦； 浙江 国资为主导的基金以20.48亿元的价格，收购了颛桥万达广场。 房产 机构人士介绍，一季度厦门一家 国企 购入位于人民广场的仙乐斯广场，济南民企购入黄浦中港汇交易落地；另外，鼎晖收购了苏河Base项目，某机构从复星手中拿下了上海滩商厦花间堂。 从交易规模维度来看，一季度多宗地标性办公楼成交拉高了单体交易规模，单体平均成交额6.1亿元，较2025年第一季度的4.8亿元同比增长27%. 成交结构方面，一季度大宗交易呈现两大特征:交易聚集于内环内、地标办公项目备受大资金青睐。 仲量联行投资及资本市场华东区负责人孙翎表示，本季度共录得的交易中，有15宗为内环内资产，成交总额达103亿元，占本季度总成交额的70%。而核心区域办公物业仍为买家投资首选，买家资金体量较为充沛，本季度办公物业交易额达97亿元，占总成交额的66%。 世邦魏理仕华东区投资及资本市场部负责人王晶指出，2026年一季度上海大宗物业投资市场，核心地段的优势及吸引力，表现得相当明显。 “本季度单笔交易规模的上升与投资型交易的主导，标志着市场情绪已从审慎观望，转向战略布局。随着核心资产估值回归理性，上海高品质办公楼将持续吸引自用企业及长线资本的关注。此外，保险机构与地产基金为寻求更稳健的现金流收益，也在向上海的酒店与 长租公寓 赛道积极布局。”王晶称。 从甲级办公租赁市场表现来看，随着政策持续发力、经济活跃度稳步回升，上海商办市场迎来积极回暖，为全年奠定良好开局。 仲量联行上海商业地产部总监黄臻表示，一季度中央商务区市场日租金环比下降1.2%至6.3元/平方米，较上季度收窄1.6个百分点。非中央商务区日租金环比下降1.5%至4.1元/平方米，较上季度收窄1.2个百分点。 "今年第一季度上海甲级办公楼市场需求持续回暖，租金降幅收窄，细分板块市场延续了分化走向。一个值得关注的现象是，部分已成功续租主力租户或者达成目标...

格隆汇4月14日｜ICE数据显示，荷兰批发市场近月天然气价格下跌5.3%，报43.94欧元/兆瓦时。

美国3月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比增长0.5%，预估为1.1%，前值为0.7%；同比增长4.0%，预估为4.6%，前值为3.4%。

格隆汇4月14日｜宝胜股份(600973.SH)公告称，预计2026年第一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4,500万元至6,500万元，同比增长98.70%至187.01%。业绩变动主要系公司聚焦主业，优化销售政策，订单数量提升；同时加强内部管理，推进提质增效和节本降耗，压降可控成本和财务费用，经营业绩稳步增长。

Claude降智了？ 近日，AMD AI集团高级总监Stella Laurenzo向Anthropic开炮。 她用团队真实生产日志，对6,852 个会话文件中的17,871个思考块、234,760次工具调用做了回溯分析。 数据显示，Claude从2月中旬开始出现了明显的行为退化。 Claude的思考中位数从2200字符暴跌至600字符，下降67%-73%； 编辑前阅读文件次数从6.6次锐减到2次，甚至三分之一的修改完全不读文件就直接动手。 Stella在分析中指出，由于推理能力下降，模型在修改代码之前逐渐不再完整阅读代码。 她写道："当思考流于表面时，模型会默认采取成本最低的操作"。 这不是个例，早在3月份，开发者们的不满已经开始集中爆发。 在X上，有用户写道：“我还以为最近几周Claude是我自己疯了。它感觉更慢、更懒，像回答前就不思考了，结果我没幻觉”。 Reddit上也有用户抱怨：“Claude感觉没那么有意识了，像被做了脑叶切除术。除了变笨，它还开始不问就擅自做极端操作……”。 还有人表示这是Anthropic对用户赤裸裸的背刺：“他们只是把问题对我们所有用户变得不可见，就是觉得‘你量不到我就不给你看’……这就是AI实验室优化利润而不是输出质量的下场”。 从用户吐槽到数据实锤，基本坐实了Claude的降智行为。 而Anthropic的官方回应，也默认了思考深度和effort确实在被持续调整。 如果这是Anthropic有意而为之，那是不是意味着，以后模型能力会在不知不觉中“缩水”？ 又或者，最强的模型能力，将不再平等地提供给所有人？ Claude降智“有意为之” Claude Opus 4.6和其编码专用模式Claude Code，在2026年1月推出时，曾被开发者奉为编码天花板。 它思考深度惊人、research-first（先调研再动手），长上下文处理稳定，多文件重构几乎无敌。 AMD内部团队甚至用它在周末就把19万行遗留代码全部merge上线，生产力直接拉满。 然而转折发生在2月初。 Anthropic低调推出“adaptive thinking”功能，官方描述是“让模型根据任务复杂度智能调整思考深度”。 表面上看是用户友好，实则开启了全局节流开关。 3月初，模型默认effort值被悄然降至medium，同时思考过程摘要被快速隐藏，用户再也无法一眼看出...

Citigroup traders pushed the bank to its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, with the fixed-income unit generating $5.2 billion of revenue in the first quarter. Dani Burger reports on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

美国3月核心PPI月率 0.1%，预期0.5%，前值由0.50%修正为0.3%。

中国保健品行业出现了一个标志性的格局变化。 2025年，健合集团旗下品牌Swisse单品牌全球年度营收突破10亿美元，按当期汇率折算约合人民币69.5亿元；同期，汤臣倍健股份有限公司实现营业收入62.65亿元。 69.5亿元对62.65亿元，约7亿元的差距——Swisse这个从线上渠道起家的跨境品牌，首次在营收规模上超越了以线下药店为核心渠道的汤臣倍健。 中国营养保健行业是一个包含“法定保健食品”与“泛功能型产品”的多元生态市场，不仅有膳食营养补充剂（VDS），还包含根植于传统文化的滋补品和专业细分的运动营养品，以及正在模糊品类边界的功能性食品饮料。 根据欧睿国际数据，2010年至2023年，汤臣倍健在中国VDS市场的份额长期位居第一。但在高度分散的市场中，前十名品牌的市场份额合计不足30%，至今没有一个超过百亿的品牌。汤臣倍健曾经非常接近这个目标（94.07亿元），却在最近三年转势下滑。如果与其他行业做一个对比，汤臣倍健和Swisse当下的规模大致相当于洽洽食品（2024年营收71亿元）和绝味鸭脖（2024年营收62.57亿元）。 2020年至今，中国营养保健品行业已从高速增长降至个位数低速增长，而且大部分增长来自线上。根据京东健康的最新数据，中国保健品市场的线上销售占比已从2015年的不足20%上升至2025年的接近60%。 可以说，Swisse的超越不是一个短期事件，这意味着在存量市场的竞争中，汤臣倍健“渠道为王”的策略彻底失灵，消费者的需求更加多元，决策更加理性，那么，谁能成为保健品行业第一个百亿品牌？ 汤臣百亿关卡急刹车后 ，一路下跌 汤臣倍健成立于1995年，2010年在深圳证券交易所创业板上市。在相当长的时间里，“汤臣倍健”几乎是国内保健品品类的代名词。 2023年，汤臣倍健的业绩达到历史高点——年营业收入94.07亿元，同比增长19.6%，距离百亿营收目标仅一步之遥。但在触及这一高点之后，它的业绩开始连续下行。 2024年，汤臣倍健营业收入68.38亿元，同比下降27.30%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润6.53亿元，同比下降62.62%。 2025年，公司营收进一步下滑至62.65亿元，较2023年高点缩水约三分之一，归母净利润为7.82亿元，同比增长19.81%。但这一利润增长主要来自销售费用压缩和成本控制，而非主营业务的扩张。 三十而立，汤臣倍健...

Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday: Citigroup initiates Infleqtion at buy Citi said the quantum computer company is "unique." "We are initiating coverage of Infleqtion with a Buy/High Risk rating and $20 TP." Piper Sandler downgrades SAP to neutral from overweight Piper downgraded several software stocks, citing a tough macroeconomy. "Over the last few decades, software has undergone transitions (e.g., mainframe to PC, client- server, on-prem to cloud), but the SaaS [Service as a Software] to AI transition today is happening on a compressed timeline. We are adjusting PTs for certain names in our list to reflect lower multiples ahead of 1Q26 earnings. We are also downgrading three names to Neutral: SAP, MNDY, & ASAN." Citi adds a positive catalyst watch on Alphabet Citi sees several positive catalysts ahead for the stock. "We are adding an upside 90-day Catalyst Watch on GOOGL given a favorable catalyst path with Google Cloud Next (04/22–24), 1Q26 earnings (04/29), Google I/O (05/19- 20), YouTube's Brandcast (05/13), and Google Marketing Live (05/20) whereby we expect product updates around Google's Gemini models, Search, YouTube, and Cloud offerings." Evercore ISI initiates Fastly at outperform Evercore said the stock is a "durable reacceleration story." "Fastly kicked off CY26 at an inflection point, as the narrative has shifted from slowing, delivery-driven growth and profitability skepticism to higher-quality growth supported by stronger execution and a structural platform shift with FSLY well positioned to become the embedded infrastructure for AI-native apps." Piper Sandler upgrades Biogen to overweight from neutral The investment bank sees a "return to growth." "We are upgrading Biogen to Overweight from Neutral and raising our PT to $214 from $177." RBC initiates Charles River at outperform RBC said in its initiation of Charles River that it is in the midst of an "evolution taking shape." "We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and $...

格隆汇4月14日｜美国3月PPI同比增长4%，预期为增长4.6%，前值为增长3.4%；环比增长0.5%，预期为增长1.1%，前值由增长0.7%修正为增长0.5%。 美国3月核心PPI同比增长3.8%，预期为增长4.1%，前值由增长3.9%修正为增长3.8%；环比增长0.1%，预期为增长0.5%，前值由增长0.5%修正为增长0.3%。

根据近期的民意调查，大多数美国人仍然认为他们的税负过高，尽管去年的税法兑现了唐纳德·特朗普总统在税收方面的多项竞选承诺。 事实上，福克斯新闻的一项新民意调查显示，人们对税收的不满情绪比去年更加强烈。这项于3月底进行的调查结果是一个新的迹象，表明随着美国经历通胀飙升和经济增长乏力，美国人对个人财务状况感到紧张。其他民调发现，这种挫败感超出了个人纳税义务的范畴，许多人认为富人和企业没有支付他们应承担的份额，而另一些人则担心政府浪费。 这些调查是在特朗普和共和党人去年通过一项大规模的税收和支出削减法案之后进行的。该立法实施了一系列税收减免，包括提高儿童税收抵免，以及对小费和加班费实行新的税收减免。本季度的退税金额有所增加，预计许多家庭将从共和党的税收立法中获得更多收入，但国会预算办公室估计，该法案最终将使最富有的美国人受益最大。 共和党人将该法律吹捧为他们正在让工薪家庭的生活更负担得起的证据。但民调显示，许多美国人可能并未感受到这些好处，尤其是当他们的退税款被更高的物价所抵消时。 根据皮尤研究中心1月份进行的一项民意调查，大多数美国人对一些富人和企业没有缴纳他们应承担的税款份额感到不安。大约六成的美国人表示，这些想法中的每一个都“非常”困扰他们，这一指标近年来基本没有变化。 福克斯新闻的民意调查发现，大约六成的登记选民（64%）表示他们不赞成特朗普处理税收的方式，高于去年4月的53%。不赞成率在独立人士中上升最为显著，但在民主党和共和党人中也有所上升。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉

格隆汇4月14日｜据央视财经，连日来，海南多地出现持续高温天气。今天，海南省气象局继续发布高温三级预警，海口市连续10天高温，打破当地4月最长连续高温日数纪录。主要受到两个因素影响：副热带高压和焚风效应。副热带高压可以理解为一个巨大的“暖高压盖子”。焚风效应，是山区特有的天气现象，简单来说，是过山气流在背风坡下沉、温度升高、湿度降低而形成的一种干热风，当干热气流翻越海南中部五指山山脉进入北部内陆时，进一步推高了地表温度。两者叠加，导致岛内北部和西部地区出现高温天气。

The conventional indictment runs like this: blinded by ideology and captured by special interests, the US and Israel have blundered into a region they never understood, sowing instability they neither anticipated nor desired. It is a damning argument. It also happens to be, in one important respect, too generous. The more unsettling possibility, supported by two decades of observable behaviour, is that these policies produce not disorder as a side effect but something far more useful: a conflict...

美国3月核心PPI环比 0.1%，预期 0.5%，前值 0.5%。

美国3月核心PPI同比 3.8%，前值 3.9%。

美国3月PPI环比 0.5%，预期 1.2%，前值 0.7%。

Investing in certain stocks can pay off in the long run, especially if you hold on for a decade or more.

Investing in certain stocks can pay off in the long run, especially if you hold on for a decade or more.

美国3月PPI同比 4%，前值 3.4%。

tigerstrawberry/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Those of you who happen to regularly read my articles know that, although Big Tech is the core of my portfolios, I write about these stocks on a quarterly or half-yearly basis. It is part of my routine: when I check my holdings and their health, I come across Big Tech, too. I recently wrote on Amazon ( AMZN ) at the end of Q1. So, we could say that this is the Q2 article. But, in reality, what triggered me was the 2025 Shareholder Letter that CEO Andrew Jassy recently published. A few weeks ago, I said Amazon was a buy, and, sharing my sum-of-the-parts valuation, I set a target price of $255 . The stock is up almost 19% since the article, and is now close to $240. Although I could not forecast this speed, I thought the upside was rather clear. But just three weeks ago, I was using some numbers that, compared to what we know now, seem obsolete and almost prehistoric. What Has Changed There are three main patches of my previous SOTP valuation that will change: the chips segment, grocery, and Amazon Leo. But before we dive in, let's address the elephant in the room. Amazon's stock started moving down after the company announced $200B in 2026 capex. If some still needed some ambiguity to be eliminated, Jassy's letter was perfect for this job. I am not talking about the $100B OpenAI commitment, which requires Amazon to reinvest back into OpenAI around $50B. What matters more is that we have a monetization timeline, which explains how the 2026 investment cycle will be monetized between 2027 and 2028. It means that in a two-year window, there is a recovery. By the way, when Jassy was the head of AWS, he saw the 2014-2018 cycle and saw the same pattern we are seeing today, as he describes in the letter: front-loaded spending quickly gave way to outsized returns. So, I think Jassy is accountable and has the experience to give us numbers that are accurate. The difference is that the scale is completely different n...

Company enters 2026 debt-free with over $10 million in capital, Nexxis operations growing 13.4% with 44.4% gross margins, and a goal of pursuing opportunities in high-growth technology sectors

J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Buy when others are fearful. This is something Warren Buffett has famously said. Of course, this was in reference to quality stocks that are being mis-priced by the market. In the case of the two dividend growth stocks I discuss today, I believe it may be the case. Both have been impacted by global trade uncertainty, high inflation, and a seemingly resilient, but weakening economy. While both are likely to underperform for the remainder of 2026, I think they can see strong returns once we see more economic clarity, likely in the next 12 months. While I'm not necessarily saying to buy these two stocks right now as they are likely to see more volatility, there are worth putting on your radar. In this article, I discuss these two, high growth dividend stocks, their fundamentals, and why they both could see massive upside potential in the not too distant future. Market Uncertainty Although we are seeing a lot of uncertainty right now, at the time of writing President Trump has suspended his previous deadline of attacking Iran for 2 weeks , hoping the two sides can come to an agreement. While stocks jumped as a result, I believe we will see more market volatility. A lot can change in the next 8 months, but it seems like the S&P ( SP500 ) could be headed for less than stellar returns. While some stocks will still perform well, the two companies I discuss are also likely to see muted returns. One, due to their sectors and two, because of inflation headwinds. But this could be viewed as a long-term buying opportunity. Especially, if you love growing dividends with upside potential like I do. Without further ado, let's get into these two stocks. #1 T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) In recent years, T-Mobile has established themselves as a force in the telecom space, significantly outperforming peers AT&T ( T ) and Verizon ( VZ ) in the past decade. They've even managed to outperform the S&P, up 417% compared to 218%. Seeking Alpha But...

Alones Creative/iStock via Getty Images After the failure to reach a deal in the first round of talks between Iran and the U.S. that took place in Islamabad over the weekend, the U.S. has announced that it will be restricting movement through the Strait of Hormuz . Here is an excerpt from the original announcement : ...the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen... I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.. . The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade... Although it's been unconfirmed by Tehran, President Trump announced that the announcement of the blockade was working and that Iran “wants to make a deal.” It's unclear currently what that means in terms of timeline or if Tehran will budge on the dealbreakers that killed this weekend's negotiations. According to Washington, that point is nuclear enrichment. Oil whipsawed on the news, jumping up ~7% by market open and then selling off half of its gains after the President made his second announcement. Stocks gained across the board on the news. The China Pressure My key takeaway from this exchange is that there is likely another party engaged in this negotiation through the back door: the People's Republic of China. They are the primary recipient of Iranian oil, as well as much of the Hormuzian oil flowing from Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. I expect Iran to be deeply motivated b...