Historically, the S&P 500's performance in January is a strong indicator of how it will perform the rest of the year. That's good news for 2026. In January, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%) was up 1.4%. That may not seem like much, but it provides a very powerful indicator of what could happen in the rest of 2026. You may have heard about the theory that equity market returns in the first month of the ye...
Historically, the S&P 500's performance in January is a strong indicator of how it will perform the rest of the year. That's good news for 2026. In January, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%) was up 1.4%. That may not seem like much, but it provides a very powerful indicator of what could happen in the rest of 2026. You may have heard about the theory that equity market returns in the first month of the year can signal how the rest of the year performs. There are a lot of similar signals out there, such as the Santa Claus Rally, that try to predict better times to own stocks. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don't. The "January Barometer" is particularly interesting because it seems to have some statistical backing and history to support it. Not a 100% success rate, mind you, but enough of a track record that it makes you look twice. Let's take a look at what history tells us over the past 40 years. Of those 40 years, January returns for the S&P 500 were positive 25 times and negative 15 times. In those 25 instances where January was higher, the next 11 months were higher 80% of the time. We're not just talking modest gains for the February-December period, either. On average, the "rest of the year" was about 11% with the median return even higher at over 14%. That brought the average full year return when January was positive to roughly 15%. The last time that January was positive but the next 11 months were negative was 2018. That year featured a quick bear market in the 4th quarter of the year that dragged total year returns negative. Prior to that, you'd have to go back to 2011. In other words, it's a rare occurrence, at least historically speaking. What happens when January is negative? It's a completely different story for the S&P 500. The next 11 months are positive just 73% of the time, with the average gain over that period coming out to just over 6%. Those four instances where January was negative and the rest of the year was negative too were in 2022, 2008, 200...
格隆汇2月2日｜数据显示，日本各大百货公司的免税销售额在1月份再次下滑，这凸显了游客的减少的影响。高岛屋报告免税销售额下降了19%，J Front Retailing表示，其旗下的传统百货大丸和松坂屋的免税销售额下降了约17%，使整体销售增长受限于0.7%。日本的目标是到2030年吸引6000万入境游客，实现15万亿日元的旅游收入。政府和旅游业也正努力实现客源和收入流的多元化。其目标是到2030年...
格隆汇2月2日｜数据显示，日本各大百货公司的免税销售额在1月份再次下滑，这凸显了游客的减少的影响。高岛屋报告免税销售额下降了19%，J Front Retailing表示，其旗下的传统百货大丸和松坂屋的免税销售额下降了约17%，使整体销售增长受限于0.7%。日本的目标是到2030年吸引6000万入境游客，实现15万亿日元的旅游收入。政府和旅游业也正努力实现客源和收入流的多元化。其目标是到2030年将外国游客的人均支出提高9%至25万日元，并将日本地方地区的总住宿人数增加一倍以上，达到1.3亿人次。此外，日本还寻求在旅游业增长与当地社区意愿之间取得平衡，同时抑制损害居民生活质量的“过度旅游”现象。
High-frequency traders in India are bracing for weaker returns after the government proposed higher taxes on equity derivatives, a move aimed at curbing speculative activity in the world’s busiest options market. To dissuade risky trading that pulls household savings away from productive investments, the tax on equity futures trades will be raised to 0.05% from 0.02%. Taxes on options premiums and...
High-frequency traders in India are bracing for weaker returns after the government proposed higher taxes on equity derivatives, a move aimed at curbing speculative activity in the world’s busiest options market. To dissuade risky trading that pulls household savings away from productive investments, the tax on equity futures trades will be raised to 0.05% from 0.02%. Taxes on options premiums and the exercise of options would go up by 50% and 20%, respectively. Industry experts say this will sharply raise the threshold for high-frequency strategies to be profitable since taxes account for about a quarter of their costs, and risks making India less competitive for derivative-heavy foreign flows. “The increase costs make it near unviable to run liquidity providing strategies in India,” said Devansh Gupta , founder at New Delhi-based trading firm AlgoQuant Fintech Ltd. “The tax moves and other curbs send a bad signal to global firms, many of whom have put their expansion plans in India on hold,” he said. The tax hike, aimed at maintaining market integrity, follows a series of steps by Indian authorities — from extensive curbs introduced by regulators in late 2024 to a crackdown the following year on US trading firm Jane Street Group LLC over alleged market manipulation. Read more: Jane Street’s Cash Machine Comes to Abrupt Halt in India For high-frequency trading firms - which thrive on huge volumes and razor-thin margins - the change alters the cost structure of strategies built around speed, scale and minimal holding periods. High-frequency firms typically act as market makers or arbitrageurs, executing thousands of trades a second to profit from tiny price discrepancies. “Effective trading costs will increase for foreign investors, HFT’s and local proprietary traders,” said Tejas Shah , head of derivatives at Equirus Securities Ltd. “Particularly for HFT’s this could be a dampener till they get their models recalibrated to accommodate this higher costs,” he said. P...
UK house prices rose by 1% in January, with the average house price standing at £270,873, according to figures from Nationwide. The lender said annual house price growth picked up from 0.6% in December, while prices rose 0.3% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, showing a bit of momentum at the start of the year. Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The start of 2026 saw a sli...
UK house prices rose by 1% in January, with the average house price standing at £270,873, according to figures from Nationwide. The lender said annual house price growth picked up from 0.6% in December, while prices rose 0.3% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, showing a bit of momentum at the start of the year. Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The start of 2026 saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth, which rose to 1.0% in January, after slowing to 0.6% in December. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month in January, after taking account of seasonal effects.” Housing market activity weakened toward the end of 2025, which Nationwide said was likely to reflect uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the autumn budget. Despite this, lending activity remained resilient. “Housing market activity also dipped at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remained close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic,” Gardner said. Read more: UK lenders hold mortgage rates as nearly 1 million borrowers brace for payment rises Affordability improved across most parts of the UK over the past year, except Northern Ireland, where strong house price growth led to a deterioration in affordability. London recorded the largest improvement for the second year running, reflecting relatively weak house price growth, solid earnings growth and lower interest rates, although it remains the least affordable region. “For the second year running, London saw the largest improvement in affordability, reflecting relatively weak house price growth in 2025, solid earnings growth and lower interest rates. Nevertheless, the capital remains the least affordable region by a significant margin,” Gardner said. Nationwide said regional differences in affordability were increasingly shaping who is able to buy. In Londo...
Olga Slobodianiuk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Sequoia Fund ( SEQUX ) Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter. Shares of Liberty Media Formula One ( FWONK ) ("Liberty") returned 6% in 2025. While the total-company growth figures were pleasingly positive, they are less relevant this year because they include a boost from MotoGP World Championship ("MotoGP"), the...
Olga Slobodianiuk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Sequoia Fund ( SEQUX ) Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter. Shares of Liberty Media Formula One ( FWONK ) ("Liberty") returned 6% in 2025. While the total-company growth figures were pleasingly positive, they are less relevant this year because they include a boost from MotoGP World Championship ("MotoGP"), the premier global championship for motorcycle road racing, which Liberty acquired in July of last year for approximately €4.4 billion ($5.2 billion). Results were strong, though, even if we focus solely on the core Formula One business. We estimate that in 2025 Formula One will have grown revenue at over 10% and profits faster still. Formula One had the same number of races in 2025 as it did in 2024, so this growth is on a comparable basis. At Formula One, sponsorship is where we saw the most notable revenue growth last year, as the 10-year $1.5 billion deal with LVMH went live. Across media rights and race promotion, the other two primary revenue streams for Formula One, growth for the year was in the high single digits combined. As we regularly emphasize, the long-term financial return we generate from our investment in Liberty will be determined first and foremost by the overall health and vibrancy of Formula One as a sport and a spectacle. As was the case in 2024, it was a good year on both fronts. We had another exciting season on the track, with the Drivers' Championship coming down to three drivers in contention going into the final race. Ultimately, McLaren's Lando Norris beat out last year's Champion, Red Bull's Max Verstappen, and his teammate Oscar Piastri. The Constructors' Championship was less exciting, with McLaren once again dominating, though Mercedes and Red Bull were neck and neck for second and third and Ferrari wasn't far behind them. Off the track, Formula One continued its strong run of new sponsorship deals last year, welcoming PepsiCo ( PEP ) as a glo...
Groundhog Day puts Punxsutawney Phil's forecast about winter's length in the spotlight toggle caption Barry Reeger/AP PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. — It's already been a long, cold winter across much of the United States, and on Monday, Punxsutawney Phil's handlers will announce whether the weather-predicting groundhog says there's more of the same to come. When Phil is said to have seen his shadow upon emerg...
Groundhog Day puts Punxsutawney Phil's forecast about winter's length in the spotlight toggle caption Barry Reeger/AP PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. — It's already been a long, cold winter across much of the United States, and on Monday, Punxsutawney Phil's handlers will announce whether the weather-predicting groundhog says there's more of the same to come. When Phil is said to have seen his shadow upon emergence from a tree stump in rural Pennsylvania, that's considered a forecast for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, an early spring is said to be on the way. Tens of thousands of people will be on hand at Gobbler's Knob for the annual ritual that goes back more than a century, with ties to ancient farming traditions in Europe. Punxsutawney's festivities have grown considerably since the 1993 movie "Groundhog Day," starring Bill Murray. Sponsor Message Last year's announcement was six more weeks of winter, by far Phil's more common assessment and not much of a surprise during the first week of February. His top-hatted handlers in the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club insist Phil's "groundhogese" of winks, purrs, chatters and nods are being interpreted when they relate the meterological marmot's muses about the days ahead. Phil isn't the only animal being consulted for long-term weather forecasts Monday. There are formal and informal Groundhog Day events in many places in the U.S., Canada and beyond. Groundhog Day falls on Feb. 2, the midpoint between the shortest, darkest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox. It's a time of year that also figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas.
Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. (Source: Bloomberg)
Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. (Source: Bloomberg)
South African stocks tumbled the most since March 2020, falling along with precious metals that are extending losses. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell as much as 6.1% on Monday, led by losses in the precious metals and mining sub-index. Miners like Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., Gold Fields Ltd. and Anglogold Ashanti Plc slid at least 17%. The country’s stocks — which just wrapped an 11-month record ra...
South African stocks tumbled the most since March 2020, falling along with precious metals that are extending losses. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell as much as 6.1% on Monday, led by losses in the precious metals and mining sub-index. Miners like Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., Gold Fields Ltd. and Anglogold Ashanti Plc slid at least 17%. The country’s stocks — which just wrapped an 11-month record rally — are swept up in the stunning selloff across precious metals. Gold plunged as much as 10% to briefly trade around $4,400 an ounce on Monday, after a rally that took it to nearly $5,600 in January. Silver plummeted as much as 16%, following a record 26% slump on Friday.
photosvit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Sequoia Fund ( SEQUX ) Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter. Shares in Rolls-Royce Holdings plc ( RYCEY ) (“Rolls-Royce”) returned 120.1% in U.S. Dollar terms in 2025, driven by strong and broad-based fundamental performance and increased investor appreciation for the underlying businesses and their prospects. We expect...
photosvit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Sequoia Fund ( SEQUX ) Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter. Shares in Rolls-Royce Holdings plc ( RYCEY ) (“Rolls-Royce”) returned 120.1% in U.S. Dollar terms in 2025, driven by strong and broad-based fundamental performance and increased investor appreciation for the underlying businesses and their prospects. We expect Rolls-Royce will have grown revenue and free cash flow per share at roughly 10% and 35%, respectively, in 2025. With the pandemic-driven collapse in flying hours and the Trent 1000 engine issues both now in the “rearview mirror,” the fundamental strength of the Civil Aerospace business and the maturation of the key engine programs are shining through. To remind, Rolls-Royce’s Civil Aerospace business has long been shifting, slowly but surely, towards engines that are more powerful and more economically rewarding too. Importantly, these new engine programs, even a decade after launch, are still young by industry standards. Their installed bases, which are still growing, should generate low-risk, high-margin revenue streams that will persist for decades. In addition, Rolls-Royce continues to invest into various “time on wing” initiatives that, if successful, should reduce required engine maintenance intervals and thereby further boost profitability. When the accounts are tallied at the end of 2025, we expect Rolls-Royce will have achieved its 2028 operating margin targets three years ahead of schedule. Critically, though, we believe that Civil Aerospace will not only grow revenues from here at a healthy rate but also will further expand its margins on account of the aforementioned time-on-wing initiatives as well as pricing. Civil Aerospace remains the most important driver of Rolls-Royce’s growth, but every other segment is experiencing a growth story of its own. Consider the company’s Defense segment. As a leading European defense contractor, we expected this segment to be...