Prediction markets are surging in popularity as cryptocurrency-based gambling platforms offering diverse gameplay and attractive odds, observers have said, warning against the risks of reneged payouts after the Hong Kong government halted plans for legalised basketball betting. They also warned on Tuesday that Hong Kong residents who participate in these platforms, which use cryptocurrency for tra...
Prediction markets are surging in popularity as cryptocurrency-based gambling platforms offering diverse gameplay and attractive odds, observers have said, warning against the risks of reneged payouts after the Hong Kong government halted plans for legalised basketball betting. They also warned on Tuesday that Hong Kong residents who participate in these platforms, which use cryptocurrency for transactions, could be breaking gambling laws while falling into unregulated contract disputes with the...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images Value and Small-Cap Outperformance Accelerates The year started with further market broadening, favoring lower valuation and smaller market capitalization equities. The Value outperformance cycle that began last year has largely gone unnoticed by market participants who remain overly focused on the popular AI and technology-related companies. In our last ...
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images Value and Small-Cap Outperformance Accelerates The year started with further market broadening, favoring lower valuation and smaller market capitalization equities. The Value outperformance cycle that began last year has largely gone unnoticed by market participants who remain overly focused on the popular AI and technology-related companies. In our last quarterly letter, “ Early Innings,” we highlighted how value outperformed growth equities ~260–720 basis points across all market caps. In late February, the war in Iran began, causing an increase in energy prices, higher bond yields, and incremental market volatility. Unlike early 2025, value stocks generated attractive absolute returns and even greater relative returns. Value outperformed Growth by ~780–1200 bps across all market caps! Over the past two quarters, value stocks have outperformed growth by +1000–1780 bps, and small cap value has outperformed large cap growth by +1700 bps! A permanent resolution to the war over the coming weeks would be a positive development for the equity markets. Investors may initially flock back to longer-duration equities; the market expects high growth to continue. Investors should be aware that there are environmental factors that have shifted. We see a growing list of headwinds that may limit their future performance. Record concentration across passive and growth indexes have caused excessive crowding and traditional broader indexes to resemble growth indexes (level of concentration, elevated valuation multiples, and higher growth sector weightings). The recent challenges in private credit marketplace suggests to us overexposure to similar market themes in public and private investment vehicles and potential future liquidity risk for investors. And, the news cycle has been filled with the recent announcement of large AI partnerships, where suppliers, customers and investors are overlapping. The circular financial deals warrant cauti...
Khanchit Khirisutchalual/iStock via Getty Images Dear Fellow Shareholder: Market Backdrop The Artisan Developing World Fund (Investor Class) returned -17.34% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, versus -0.17% for the MSCI ( MSCI ) Emerging Markets Index (all returns in USD unless stated otherwise). Since June 30, 2015, the Artisan Developing World Fund has returned 123.09% cumulatively, versus 85...
Khanchit Khirisutchalual/iStock via Getty Images Dear Fellow Shareholder: Market Backdrop The Artisan Developing World Fund (Investor Class) returned -17.34% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, versus -0.17% for the MSCI ( MSCI ) Emerging Markets Index (all returns in USD unless stated otherwise). Since June 30, 2015, the Artisan Developing World Fund has returned 123.09% cumulatively, versus 85.13% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The quarter was marked by US military intervention, renewed tariff uncertainty, and questions over Fed independence. These concerns created incremental demand for stores of value as visible in movements in silver (+63.1%) and gold (+25.4%) from year-end 2025 through January 28. This dynamic seems to have peaked with the nomination of Kevin Warsh to Fed chair, which restored confidence in Fed independence and marked a four-year trough in the dollar. Artificial intelligence (AI) model achievements continued unabated with Anthropic reporting surpassing $30 billion in run-rate revenue (up from $9 billion at year-end), Anthropic's Claude coding tools threatening to disrupt entire industries, and the new OpenClaw AI tool providing a pathway to imminent agentic AI adoption, including in China. Korea and Taiwan benefited from both capital flight from the US and continued AI developments, increasing 59.6% and 25.3% YTD, respectively, through February 26. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was also up 15.4% through February 26. Markets then began to anticipate the US and Israeli strike on Iran and trended lower the balance of the quarter. From February 26 through March 31, the MSCI Emerging Market Index gave back all of its YTD gains, the dollar strengthened 3.0% against emerging market currencies, 10-year US Treasury yields increased from 4.01% to 4.32%, the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index's spread widened from 2.82% to 3.17%, Brent crude oil rose from $70.75 to $118.35, Korea and Taiwan declined 27.0% and 13.0%, and former safe ha...
Morning, I’m Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK’s breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today’s top business stories. Exceptional. A word rarely heard in company statements. That is how BP has described its oil trading so far this year. The energy major is benefitting from the Iran war jolting energy markets, following peer Shell flagging strong results last week. Oil, gas and fuel prices hav...
Morning, I’m Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK’s breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today’s top business stories. Exceptional. A word rarely heard in company statements. That is how BP has described its oil trading so far this year. The energy major is benefitting from the Iran war jolting energy markets, following peer Shell flagging strong results last week. Oil, gas and fuel prices have surged since the conflict broke out, and BP signalled its traders have profited from that volatility. Its natural gas trading results were “average.” The boost comes at a particularly significant time for BP, as this morning’s update is the first bit of guidance since Meg O’Neill took the helm. She’s on a mission to return the company to its core of oil and gas, while divesting in low-return clean energy assets and making the company leaner. It’s under pressure from activist investor Elliott – and other shareholders – to turn years of underperformance around, which has already resulted in the ousting of O’Neill’s predecessor Murray Auchincloss. BP shares were down slightly at the open, as oil fell on the news that the US and Iran are weighing further talks to extend the ceasefire. What’s your take? Ping me on X , LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond. What We’re Watching Tobacco giant Imperial Brands stuck with its full-year guidance, but noted potential uncertainty ahead due to the Iran war. This was echoed in recruiter PageGroup ’s morning statement, as the war starts to show up in corporate results. More on that from my colleague Kit below. The war and broader “uncertainties” are starting to dent confidence , HSBC ’s chief told Bloomberg TV. “We worry that the continuation of this conflict will have that impact globally way beyond the Middle East,” he said, seeing a hit to the price of goods, oil and refined products, but also fertilisers and...