AmArtPhotography The recent stock rally has been historically sharp. Goldman Sachs charts show the S&P 500’s ( SPY ) ( IVV ) ( VOO ) recent two-month gain ranks in the 99th percentile of returns since 1980, while the momentum factor’s two-month move ranks in the 98th percentile. That puts the latest rally near the very top of the historical distribution for short-term market strength. The move is ...
AmArtPhotography The recent stock rally has been historically sharp. Goldman Sachs charts show the S&P 500’s ( SPY ) ( IVV ) ( VOO ) recent two-month gain ranks in the 99th percentile of returns since 1980, while the momentum factor’s two-month move ranks in the 98th percentile. That puts the latest rally near the very top of the historical distribution for short-term market strength. The move is notable across longer windows as well. Goldman’s chart shows the S&P 500’s recent returns rank in the 84th percentile over one month, 91st percentile over three months, 73rd percentile over six months and 87th percentile over 12 months. Momentum has been even stronger, ranking in the 87th percentile over one month, 99th over three months, 98th over six months and 95th over 12 months. Goldman Sachs A separate Goldman chart shows the rolling three-month return for its U.S. momentum factor at about 27%, a level rarely exceeded since 1995. Prior periods of comparable momentum strength clustered around major market inflection points, including 2000, 2008 and 2020. Goldman Sachs Is it a case of too far, too fast? The charts do not, by themselves, make a bearish call. Strong momentum can persist, especially when investors crowd into leadership themes that continue to work. But they do show that the current tape is statistically unusual. More on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Vanguard 500 Index Fund;ETF, etc. Mega IPOs Pose Leveraged Downside Risk For The Nasdaq 100 The Chip Stocks That Will Crack First Concentration, AI Disruption, And Earnings: What's Behind Recent Market Volatility Prediction markets see low odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal this year SA analyst warns tech rebound may be short-lived as yields rise
Traders are aggressively building short-selling positions in US stocks, while bullish wagers on the tech sector remain stretched, putting the market at risk, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. Friday’s near 5% selloff in the Nasdaq 100 index, the sharpest in 14 months, has only partially reset exposure among investors, the Citi team led by David Chew said in a note. “Flows reveal a bifurcate...
Traders are aggressively building short-selling positions in US stocks, while bullish wagers on the tech sector remain stretched, putting the market at risk, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. Friday’s near 5% selloff in the Nasdaq 100 index, the sharpest in 14 months, has only partially reset exposure among investors, the Citi team led by David Chew said in a note. “Flows reveal a bifurcated market, with a mix of aggressive short building recently alongside continued legacy longs,” Chew wrote. “Nasdaq bullish positioning remains extended, leaving the overall setup improved but still vulnerable to downside risks.” Read more: BofA Warns It’s Time to ‘Take Profits’ as Red Flags Multiply Investors have added to positioning in US stocks in the past few weeks, with fast-money asset managers such as CTAs and volatility-control funds rebuilding exposure. These traders were encouraged by milder price swings and as headlines about a resolution in the Iran war became more positive. However, the next few weeks hold major risk events for US stocks, with inflation data due Wednesday and the first Federal Reserve interest-rate decision under new Chairman Kevin Warsh on June 17. Meanwhile, huge initial public offerings by SpaceX, Anthropic PBC and OpenAI are set to test the market’s appetite for greater exposure to the artificial intelligence theme. Read more: SpaceX IPO Is Well Oversubscribed With $10 Billion Orders “Despite some de-risking, Nasdaq bullish positioning remains extended with most longs still in profit,” Chew wrote. “This keeps downside risks skewed, particularly into upcoming tech catalysts, where any disappointment could trigger meaningful long liquidation given still-elevated profitability and crowded long exposures.” The backdrop looks more settled in Europe, the Citi team said. Short positions in the large-cap Euro Stoxx 50 index have been covered, while other regional benchmarks such as the DAX, the FTSE 100, and the Euro Stoxx Banks gauge are moving bac...
georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images I'm updating my thesis on my defense sector coverage. I have looked at the Swedish companies within the sector that I cover, so now I move on to the other European companies. Next to the "block" is BAE Systems ( BAESY ), a company that I actually invested heavily in (unlike SAAB) when it was still cheap. Of course, I have long since rotated my entire ...
georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images I'm updating my thesis on my defense sector coverage. I have looked at the Swedish companies within the sector that I cover, so now I move on to the other European companies. Next to the "block" is BAE Systems ( BAESY ), a company that I actually invested heavily in (unlike SAAB) when it was still cheap. Of course, I have long since rotated my entire position (too early, I might add), and now I cover it to see just when it's time to go back into the business. You can find my last article on the company here. BAE Systems is an incredibly attractive play - at least at the right price. I like SAAB for its design of superb planes and naval assets, which operate at substantially lower cost bases and recurring costs than other manufacturers. I like BAE Systems for "its own things". The company, hailing from the UK isles, is one that has effectively avoided the hardware trap that many manufacturers, including German ones, can fall into. By having a high focus on things like Cyber and Electronics systems , exemplified by its component supply to the F-35 program, it keeps its revenue and income streams more "nimble" and less dependent on huge contracts than others, like SAAB. This is a very good thing. SAAB has "a backlog". BAE's backlog, meanwhile, is over £80B, which makes it one of the largest in the world. Unlike SAAB, it has a 1.2x book-to-bill, which technically means that the "order party" isn't over yet - unlike, again, SAAB (which in 1Q26 fell below 1x). This backlog technically should provide the defense manufacturer with downright decades of visibility when it comes to profit. But let's not take things too far. I believe BAE Systems is also actively making some shortsighted mistakes, which I will come back to in this article. Small defense firms, which SAAB might actually be on a global comparative basis, are subject to volatility to the extreme. The same cannot be said for this one. The company has a high exposure to...
Athlete Hannah Babalola says she was told to use the toilet without an aisle chair or leave Cape Town to Amsterdam flight The Dutch airline KLM has offered “sincere apologies” to a Paralympic athlete who was denied access to an onboard wheelchair during a long-haul flight so she could go to the toilet. The cabin crew on the flight later called the police after the request from Hannah Babalola, 37,...
Athlete Hannah Babalola says she was told to use the toilet without an aisle chair or leave Cape Town to Amsterdam flight The Dutch airline KLM has offered “sincere apologies” to a Paralympic athlete who was denied access to an onboard wheelchair during a long-haul flight so she could go to the toilet. The cabin crew on the flight later called the police after the request from Hannah Babalola, 37, who is paraplegic and competes in track events, for the wheelchair, known as an aisle chair as it is narrow enough to be used inside a plane. They first handed her a written notice, headed: “Unacceptable conduct and final warning on behalf of the captain of this plane.” Continue reading...