jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images April 13 was a really rough day for shares of Fastenal Company ( FAST ). The stock dropped around 7.3% during the day after management announced financial results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. This is peculiar because revenue came in above what analysts were anticipating, and earnings per share matched expectations. The company contin...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images April 13 was a really rough day for shares of Fastenal Company ( FAST ). The stock dropped around 7.3% during the day after management announced financial results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. This is peculiar because revenue came in above what analysts were anticipating, and earnings per share matched expectations. The company continues to grow nicely, though it did acknowledge some challenges facing it. To be honest with you, I am not terribly surprised that the stock declined like it did. Don't get me wrong. It is a fantastic business with a great track record of expansion. Long term, I am bullish about it from an operational standpoint. However, as I detailed in my last article about it, published in December of last year, shares looked drastically overpriced. Despite the growth that the company is exhibiting, it is trading at levels that are difficult to justify. And that is why I called it a "Sell" back then. Admittedly, the stock has risen 9.8% since then, while the S&P 500 is down 0.8%. However, the data is clear that shares are quite pricey right now. From a valuation standpoint, it looks almost as pricey as it did back then, with the disparity driven by changes in operational performance. So I really don't see a reason to upgrade it at this time. A solid quarter Objectively speaking, the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year was a good time for shareholders of Fastenal Company. The company reported revenue of $2.20 billion. That translated to a 12.4% increase over the $1.96 billion that the business reported a year earlier. It also happened to be $5.2 million greater than what analysts were hoping to see . This overall rise in revenue was thanks to strong customer contract signings that the company has seen since the first quarter of 2024, not to mention additional industrial production that the company benefited from in the first quarter of this year. There was a bit of a benefit caused by fo...
Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images Transcript This week, I want to talk about starting to dial up risk. The signposts that we have been monitoring include tangible evidence of actions that could restart the flow through the Strait of Hormuz and also visibility on lingering macro impact being contained. The fact that they accept to start talks is concrete evidence of the economic incentives to...
Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images Transcript This week, I want to talk about starting to dial up risk. The signposts that we have been monitoring include tangible evidence of actions that could restart the flow through the Strait of Hormuz and also visibility on lingering macro impact being contained. The fact that they accept to start talks is concrete evidence of the economic incentives to stop the war, but for this to be ultimately positive for markets, we do need to see flow through the Strait to pick up, which we are monitoring daily. AI helping drive earnings revisions Meanwhile, equity valuations have become cheaper as earnings expectations are revised higher. U.S. and emerging markets are driving these earnings upgrades - and there is a common theme, which is AI and tech. In emerging markets, Asian companies that produce semiconductors and chips are driving the earnings upgrades. And it’s the same story in the U.S. Tech is driving earnings upgrades in the U.S., and within tech, semiconductors are driving earnings upgrades. So, the view changes: we’re bringing up U.S. equities and emerging markets equities from neutral to modest overweight, funding that from front-end European rates. And we continue to emphasize themes that are accelerated by events in the Middle East, such as defense, power and infrastructure. _________ We flagged two signposts to dial up risk-taking after the Middle East conflict led us to reduce risk and turn neutral on U.S. equities a few weeks ago. First: evidence of actions that could re-open shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Second: signs that any lingering macro impact is contained. We eye developments on both fronts. Plus, corporate earnings expectations are up even through the conflict, partly on the AI theme. We go back to modest risk-taking and turn overweight U.S. stocks. Earnings unscathed Earnings growth expectations for 2026, year-on-year growth (Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from IBES consens...
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You probably don’t need me to tell you that neither of these images is genuine. | Images by Kalya_off / Grannyspills, compiled by The Verge Coachella kicked off on Friday, and as usual, it's the place to be for online influencers looking to show off their memorable experiences at the festival. A quick scroll through my social media feeds has already shown me many uncannily attractive figures in gl...
You probably don’t need me to tell you that neither of these images is genuine. | Images by Kalya_off / Grannyspills, compiled by The Verge Coachella kicked off on Friday, and as usual, it's the place to be for online influencers looking to show off their memorable experiences at the festival. A quick scroll through my social media feeds has already shown me many uncannily attractive figures in glitzy outfits, posing for perfectly staged photographs with celebrities. Only some of these content creators aren't really there. They don't even exist at all outside of our screens. They're generated using AI tools. Faking Coachella attendance is nothing new - even real influencers have been doing so in recent years - but generative AI has now progressed to the point where it's become … Read the full story at The Verge.
watch now VIDEO 3:51 03:51 How the global oil shock is hurting California drivers Energy Global energy prices are rising as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains more than 90% below where it was before the Iran war broke out Feb. 28. While the U.S. remains insulated to a certain extent, domestic prices are also moving higher — especially in California. The national average for a gallon of r...
watch now VIDEO 3:51 03:51 How the global oil shock is hurting California drivers Energy Global energy prices are rising as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains more than 90% below where it was before the Iran war broke out Feb. 28. While the U.S. remains insulated to a certain extent, domestic prices are also moving higher — especially in California. The national average for a gallon of regular gas stood at $4.13 on Monday, according to AAA, but in California it's $5.89. The price for a gallon of diesel in the state hit a record $7.75 on April 9. California typically has among the highest gas prices in the U.S., in part because of the state's stricter fuel requirements. But its pipeline connection to the oil and fuel-rich Gulf Coast is also limited, meaning it has to look abroad for supplies. Almost 75% of the state's crude oil is imported, with imports also shoring up gasoline and jet fuel supplies. A portion of those products come from South Korea and India, both of which are currently grappling with tight inventories due to the loss of Middle East oil. In March, South Korea implemented fuel export caps. "We are worried about supply on the West Coast," Andy Walz, Chevron's president for downstream, midstream and chemicals, told CNBC on March 25 at CERAWeek by S&P Global. "Asia has been among the first to feel the pain of lost Mideast Gulf crude supply, and California is leveraged into Asia. They'll feel the pain initially in prices because China, Korea or India won't send it to California unless they are compensated to ship it," he said. "And then the second phase of that crunch is they won't have the products that they want or need. Reliable security of energy supply is important in California for national and economic security," Walz added. Watch the video above to hear more about California's energy struggle. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images I rated the Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF ( HGER ) a Buy in a Seeking Alpha article on October 6, 2026, where I concluded: Commodity exposure is critical for diversified portfolios. The Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF is a dynamically managed ETF that should continue to follow and potentially outperform the asset class. The 29-commodity c...
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images I rated the Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF ( HGER ) a Buy in a Seeking Alpha article on October 6, 2026, where I concluded: Commodity exposure is critical for diversified portfolios. The Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF is a dynamically managed ETF that should continue to follow and potentially outperform the asset class. The 29-commodity composite traded on U.S. and U.K. exchanges rose 15.98% in 2025, and the HGER gained 12.1%, slightly underperforming the asset class composite. In Q1 2026, HGER far outperformed the asset class’s 11.79% gain. A double-digit gain in the commodities composite in Q1 2026 The commodities composite of 29 futures and forward exchange-traded markets in the U.S. and U.K. across precious and base metals, energy, grains, soft commodities, and animal proteins rose 11.79% in Q1 2026. On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran as tensions built to a crescendo, and Iran retaliated against neighboring countries in the Middle East. The hostilities caused energy and agricultural commodities to soar as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt, blocking shipments of crude oil, oil products, fertilizers, aluminum, and other raw materials. Energy and grains lead the way on the upside In Q1 2026, four of the six commodity sectors posted gains. The soft commodity composite, including futures on world sugar, Arabica coffee, cocoa, cotton, and frozen concentrated orange juice traded on the Intercontinental Exchange, fell 11.02%. Coffee, cocoa, and FCOJ futures reached new record highs in 2024 and 2025, and the corrections led the sector lower over the first three months of 2026. Precious metals, another high-flying sector in 2025, edged only 0.14% lower. While gold and silver posted gains, losses in platinum and palladium futures led to the slightly negative sector performance. Base metals, including copper, aluminum, nickel, lead, zinc, and tin traded on the London Metals ...
tumsasedgars/iStock via Getty Images The market is driven by money. Money has two origins: the deficit spending of the Federal Government (the spending that is not taxed back), and bank credit-creation (loans created by chartered banks). The former is referred to as the net-transfer from the Treasury General Account to the bank accounts of the private-sector. Net money-creation is the sum of net-t...
tumsasedgars/iStock via Getty Images The market is driven by money. Money has two origins: the deficit spending of the Federal Government (the spending that is not taxed back), and bank credit-creation (loans created by chartered banks). The former is referred to as the net-transfer from the Treasury General Account to the bank accounts of the private-sector. Net money-creation is the sum of net-transfers and bank credit. Nominal-spending, is the gross spending of the government before taxes are collected back. The year-over-year change in the net flow of funds into the private sector is the most fundamental driver of the market. In this article, I compare the current flows (fiscal-2026) to last year's flows (fiscal-2025), at the 131-day mark of the fiscal-year. Fund-Flows Fund-flows as of April 9, 2026, compared to April 8, 2025 (131/252 business days of the fiscal-year): Type of Flow Fiscal-2026 Fiscal-2025 Net-transfer (annualized) Change from last week +$1,106B ($2,128B) +$36B (+ $5B) +$1,231B ($2,368B) +$5B (+ $3B) Nominal-spending (annualized) Change from last week $4,302B ($8,276) +$149B (+$35B) $4,078B ($7,845B) +$84B (- $57 B) Change in bank credit Change from last week +$619B +$73B +$310B +$33B Tariffs Change from last week (-)$183.66B +$1.43B (-)$54.30B +$0.79B Click to enlarge The net-transfer in the first 131-days of fiscal-2026 is -$125B ( -10%) less than last year. This shortfall has been improving for the last few weeks. Nominal-spending is +$224B higher than last year, but tariffs have almost eliminated this extra spending ($129B more in tariffs this year than last). The change in bank credit is +309B higher than last year which more than compensates for the lower net-transfers and is the ninth week it has done so this fiscal-year. The Fed's IOR (interest on reserves) has paid -$25.4B less than last year. Net money-creation is +$159B more than last year; extrapolating this rate, means there would be +$306B more money-created in fiscal-2026 compared ...