autsawin/iStock via Getty Images By Zain Vawda AUD/USD continues to struggle below the psychological 0.7000 handle following softer-than-expected CPI data. Market participants still seem to be erring on the side of caution, with more rate hikes still expected from the RBA moving forward. Soft CPI print fails to move the needle Australia’s annual inflation rate showed signs of cooling in February 2...
autsawin/iStock via Getty Images By Zain Vawda AUD/USD continues to struggle below the psychological 0.7000 handle following softer-than-expected CPI data. Market participants still seem to be erring on the side of caution, with more rate hikes still expected from the RBA moving forward. Soft CPI print fails to move the needle Australia’s annual inflation rate showed signs of cooling in February 2026, dipping to 3.7%. This result was slightly lower than the 3.8% market forecast and the figures seen in the previous two months, though it remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2–3% target range. A significant driver of this slowdown was the easing of goods inflation, which dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% in January. This was largely fueled by a sharp decline in transport costs, particularly automotive fuel, which fell by 7.2%, a much steeper drop than the 2.7% decline recorded before the recent Middle East conflict. Other sectors contributing to the downward trend included: Alcohol and tobacco: Eased to 4.3% Education: Slowed to 4.8% Clothing: Eased to 4.9% Communication: Dropped to 0.8% While several categories cooled, price growth remained persistent in other areas. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages held steady at 3.1%, and financial services remained at 2.4%. Conversely, costs accelerated for recreation (4.0%) and housing, with the latter jumping to 7.3% from 6.8%. Services inflation remained unchanged at 3.9%. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, a notable shift from the 0.4% increase seen in January. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI, a key measure of underlying inflation, edged down to 3.3%, coming in below both the previous figure and market expectations of 3.4%. These latest numbers arrive at a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already pushed interest rates up to 4.10% to fight stubborn inflation. The RBA is worried that current price hikes might lead to "second-round effects," such as a cycle where wage...
Ranimiro Lotufo Neto/iStock via Getty Images I have owned Var Energi ( VARRY ) since April 2024. Until early 2026, the stock price moved mostly sideways. Nevertheless, I remained calm during that time and collected the generous dividends. Since the start of the Iran war, the stock has risen by about 40%. In this article, I'd like to explain why Var Energi is such a good hedge in times of war, what...
Ranimiro Lotufo Neto/iStock via Getty Images I have owned Var Energi ( VARRY ) since April 2024. Until early 2026, the stock price moved mostly sideways. Nevertheless, I remained calm during that time and collected the generous dividends. Since the start of the Iran war, the stock has risen by about 40%. In this article, I'd like to explain why Var Energi is such a good hedge in times of war, what dividend yield can be expected in the medium term, and whether investors should buy, hold, or sell the stock now. Var Energi - Strategic Position Var Energi is Norway's third-largest oil and gas producer. It invested heavily in the last few years to grow its production from 213 kboepd in 2023 to an estimated 400 kboepd in 2026. At the same time, operating costs decreased from 14.1 USD/boe to about 10 USD/boe. The geographical location of their production facilities (Norwegian continental shelf) is proving to be a strategic advantage in light of the war in Iran, as European production is not sufficient and Russia, as Europe's main supplier of fossil fuels of the past, has largely dropped out of the picture due to sanctions, and the U.S., as an alternative, already supplies a great deal of oil and LNG. As a result, Europe has been sourcing more and more fossil fuels from the Middle East (e.g., Qatar). Reliable European suppliers located close to major European customers such as Var Energi may therefore be able to command even higher prices for their oil and, in particular, their natural gas than suppliers from other regions of the world. Var Energi - The Dividend For the last twelve months, the company paid a dividend of $1.2 billion in total. At a current market cap of about $12 billion, this is equivalent to a dividend yield of about 10% as of the time of writing. The company also indicated a dividend payout of $1.2 billion for 2026. We believe this is exceptional and that the share price does not need to rise in order to achieve a decent total return if the dividend is sa...
RonFullHD/iStock via Getty Images A guest post by D C The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently. A summary in chart form. The EIA assumes the oil shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be over by June and oil prices will fall relatively quickly. This seems an optimistic assumption. The higher oil prices in 2026 and 2027 lead to higher US crude output than last mo...
RonFullHD/iStock via Getty Images A guest post by D C The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently. A summary in chart form. The EIA assumes the oil shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be over by June and oil prices will fall relatively quickly. This seems an optimistic assumption. The higher oil prices in 2026 and 2027 lead to higher US crude output than last month’s STEO in 2027 by about 500 kb/d. There is about a 7 month delay between higher prices and the higher output that results in the Permian Basin where most of the US increase is expected to occur. Again I believe this forecast misses the pressure depletion occurring in the Permian Basin that will make it very difficult to even maintain current output levels so this forecast is optimistic in my view at the oil prices assumed by the EIA forecast. The higher natural gas output compared to previous STEO reports is mostly due to higher associated gas output that is assumed to come from the Permian Basin. Again I think this is incorrect and believe Permian output of both oil and natural gas will be less than forecast by the EIA. Note that the chart above shows marketed natural gas, before the NGL is removed, where the previous chart gives us dry natural gas production after the NGL has been removed from the wet gas stream. Marketed natural gas output in 2027 is forecast at an average annual rate of 123.9 BCF/d, about 11.6 BCF/d more than dry natural gas average output in 2027. A colder winter than forecast in October 2025 has led to a lower March 2026 natural gas inventory in the current STEO compared to last October. Electricity consumption has grown faster than the 2010-2019 period and this is expected to continue through 2027. Solar generation is expected to grow quickly in 2025-2026 especially in Texas. Wind is the second largest growing category of electricity output nationwide followed by nuclear and hydro for 2025-2026. Notice the large oil stock build expected in 2026 a...