peshkov/iStock via Getty Images Market Review Global economic conditions remained subdued in the fourth quarter, with inflation continuing to ease and labor markets showing signs of softening. Growth indicators pointed to widespread sub-trend expansion, while forward-looking measures suggested little near-term improvement. Central banks maintained a broadly accommodative stance: the US Federal Res...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images Market Review Global economic conditions remained subdued in the fourth quarter, with inflation continuing to ease and labor markets showing signs of softening. Growth indicators pointed to widespread sub-trend expansion, while forward-looking measures suggested little near-term improvement. Central banks maintained a broadly accommodative stance: the US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) cut rates twice, while the Bank of Canada and Bank of England also trimmed rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a 50 basis point ( BP ) cut, whereas the Bank of Japan raised rates to its highest level in more than 30 years. Inflation remained well-behaved globally, with no major upside surprises. Politically, talks between the US and China produced agreements to ease tariffs, resume agricultural purchases, and pause rare-earth materials export restrictions, alongside pledges to cooperate on resolving the war in Ukraine. Efforts to broker peace in Ukraine gained momentum, though little obvious progress has been achieved. Geopolitical tensions escalated as the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, foreshadowing the removal of President Nicolás Maduro in early January. We believe global economic growth is stabilizing overall, as suggested by forward-looking indicators, on average. Developed market government bonds enjoyed varying fortunes during the fourth quarter. UK gilts fared well, seeing yields decline, while the increase in longer-term Japanese government bond yields accelerated, reaching highs not seen in more than 25 years. US Treasury yields were modestly lower at shorter maturities, with the two-year yield ending the period just below 3.5%. However, the 10-year Treasury yield moved sideways in a relatively narrow range down, ending 2bp higher at 4.17%. In Germany, 10-year government bond yields initially declined but then increased through November and December, ending 14bp higher at 2.85%. Meanwhile, 10-year UK gilt yields ende...
Colombia's Left-Wing President Says He Survived Assassination Attempt As Elections Near Colombia's democratic socialist president claimed Tuesday afternoon that he escaped an assassination attempt on Monday night, after years of warning about assassination plots against him. AFP News reports that Colombian President Gustavo Petro narrowly escaped an assassination attempt after his helicopter repor...
Colombia's Left-Wing President Says He Survived Assassination Attempt As Elections Near Colombia's democratic socialist president claimed Tuesday afternoon that he escaped an assassination attempt on Monday night, after years of warning about assassination plots against him. AFP News reports that Colombian President Gustavo Petro narrowly escaped an assassination attempt after his helicopter reportedly could not land at a location on the South American country's Caribbean coast because gunmen were allegedly ready to open fire upon landing. " We headed out to open sea for four hours, and I arrived somewhere we weren't supposed to go, escaping from being killed ," Petro stated in a cabinet meeting on live television. He warned that the incident is part of a longer-running assassination plot by drug traffickers that he says has targeted him since he took office in August 2022. Petro suggested in 2024 that the commander of the Estado Mayor Central rebel group had planned to assassinate him with snipers. For some context, EMC is a dissident group of the now-demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) that rejected a 2016 peace deal with the government. Petro's latest assassination plot claim comes ahead of presidential elections, with Petro barred by the constitution from seeking a second term. According to Bloomberg, Colombia's two top presidential candidates - conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda - are neck and neck in the latest poll data ahead of the election on May 31. De la Espriella has about 32.1% support, compared to Cepeda's 31.4%, in the AtlasIntel poll for Semana newspaper. Former Antioquia governor Sergio Fajardo trails with about 7.6%. Meanwhile, South American politics has shifted sharply in President Trump's second term, with right-wing movements gaining traction across the continent, from Argentina to Chile, after years of failed socialist and communist governments. The Maduro regime's fall last month...
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and CEO at Evolution Mining, discusses the company's business strategy and the outlook for gold prices. He speaks with Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade. (Source: Bloomberg)
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and CEO at Evolution Mining, discusses the company's business strategy and the outlook for gold prices. He speaks with Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade. (Source: Bloomberg)