J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Thesis This Seeking Alpha article is our tool to warn investors of the risks we see in the corporate bond market, especially in situations where we see a high probability for those risks to materialise. We argue that investors should consider high expected inflation numbers, current low spreads compared to the last +20 years, and the low credit quality of i...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Thesis This Seeking Alpha article is our tool to warn investors of the risks we see in the corporate bond market, especially in situations where we see a high probability for those risks to materialise. We argue that investors should consider high expected inflation numbers, current low spreads compared to the last +20 years, and the low credit quality of investment-grade bond ETFs when allocating their portfolio. We initiate with a STRONG SELL on corporate bonds as an asset class by analyzing in detail multiple popular ETFs with that exposure. Credit Spreads In our previous article, The Silent Risk In Portfolios: Long-Duration Exposure , we argued that the unfavorable maturity distribution of US Treasury debt, high US budget deficits, and inflation expectations derived from breakeven rates are in favor of selling long-duration Treasury and buying ultra-short duration Treasury. Since the bond market is generally priced with a spread on risk-free, i.e., Treasury bonds in the case of US corporate bonds, in this article, we will look at the corporate bond ETFs and then give our final verdict on the total bond market ETFs. The chart below shows corporate bond spreads over time vs. Treasury 10-year bonds on a yield basis. As the data clearly shows, all stated spreads per rating category are far below its median levels for the period. Spread on US corporate A-rated securities is 1.02% vs the median of 0.78% or 24 bps below the historic median. Spread on BBB/Baa corporates is at 1.12% vs the median of 1.61% or 49 bps below the median, and spread on HY is 2.99% vs 3.85% median or 86 bps below the median. US credit spreads (Bloomberg) So, the lower the credit quality, the greater the deviation from the median. In our view, this shows that the corporate bond market is still in a risk-on environment, no matter the poor returns over the last couple of years that have happened due to the bear market in Treasuries. Also, please note that i...
Earnings Call Insights: Origin Materials (ORGN) Q4 2025 Management View CEO John Bissell stated that "last year was a challenging one for Origin but also brought meaningful progress." He highlighted the delivery of the latest iteration of Origin PET caps to multiple beverage brands, with approximately 30 key prospects evaluating the new design. Bissell described the cap as incorporating feedback f...
Earnings Call Insights: Origin Materials (ORGN) Q4 2025 Management View CEO John Bissell stated that "last year was a challenging one for Origin but also brought meaningful progress." He highlighted the delivery of the latest iteration of Origin PET caps to multiple beverage brands, with approximately 30 key prospects evaluating the new design. Bissell described the cap as incorporating feedback from major brands and said internal testing shows "market improvement in seal performance and impact resistance in a single design, meeting industry benchmarks for pressurized water applications." Bissell reported that the company is executing a water-first go-to-market strategy in the $65 billion global closures market, with the first products with Origin PET caps going on store shelves in California in August 2025. He noted distribution progress, including new partnerships with HP Embalagens, Berlin Packaging, and Matrix Bottling Group. Bissell announced a convertible debt facility with an initial tranche of $15 million and an option to raise up to $90 million, as well as a nonbinding $20 million equipment financing term sheet. However, he revealed challenges: "due to the significant decline in our stock price... we have been able to make only limited use of the equity payment feature of this facility... Servicing the outstanding debt with cash has had and will continue to have an adverse impact on our liquidity." Bissell explained that absent near-term financing and operating expense reductions, "we currently estimate that our existing cash and cash equivalents will allow us to continue our planned operations into the third quarter of 2026." CFO Matthew Plavan stated, "because of the uncertainty in the duration of customer validation cycles, coupled with the impact of these changes to our expected financing sources, we are at higher risk of operational disruption if we are unsuccessful in replacing the prior funding arrangements in relatively short order." Plavan added, "...
Some local universities have been consistently rated as among the world’s best, as reflected in the latest global rankings by British firm Quacquarelli Symonds (QS). While the city is justifiably proud of its achievements, there is no room for complacency amid growing competition in the education sector worldwide. It is encouraging that five subjects offered by local institutions are among the top...
Some local universities have been consistently rated as among the world’s best, as reflected in the latest global rankings by British firm Quacquarelli Symonds (QS). While the city is justifiably proud of its achievements, there is no room for complacency amid growing competition in the education sector worldwide. It is encouraging that five subjects offered by local institutions are among the top 10 in the world. The University of Hong Kong’s dentistry programme remains the city’s...
This week, the Fed holds rates steady, anticipating greater uncertainty and higher prices as war in Iran drives up fertilizer and fuel costs. Plus, letting first-time homebuyers tap retirement savings might ease down payments, but it can also fuel demand and push home prices higher. Later, can farmers respond quickly enough when social media spikes demand for their produce, or do viral trends crea...
This week, the Fed holds rates steady, anticipating greater uncertainty and higher prices as war in Iran drives up fertilizer and fuel costs. Plus, letting first-time homebuyers tap retirement savings might ease down payments, but it can also fuel demand and push home prices higher. Later, can farmers respond quickly enough when social media spikes demand for their produce, or do viral trends create more risk than opportunity? (Source: Bloomberg)
josefkubes/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of 3M Company ( MMM ) hit the news wires this week after the company found itself active in M&A again. The latest deal is small and complicated, with little financial information provided, yet given the size of the activities, these are bolt-on moves in the portfolio. These moves followed a reasonably solid 2025, yet the longer-term track record ...
josefkubes/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of 3M Company ( MMM ) hit the news wires this week after the company found itself active in M&A again. The latest deal is small and complicated, with little financial information provided, yet given the size of the activities, these are bolt-on moves in the portfolio. These moves followed a reasonably solid 2025, yet the longer-term track record of 3M has been much more mixed. After a big dip in recent years, shares have seen a spectacular recovery - frankly too much of a recovery to see real appeal here. Modest growth, adjusted earnings, potential for continued litigation, and reasonable valuations do not create a very compelling setup here, with shares having doubled from the 2024 lows. This makes me more cautious, looking to learn more about 3M's efforts to simplify the business but, moreover, report cleaner numbers, with less (legal) overhang in the future. Other, higher conviction ideas, including recent M&A efforts, can be found at Value In Corporate Events . Creating Fire & Safety 3M has reached an agreement to acquire Madison Fire & Rescue in a partnership with Bain. The deal, payable by 3M and Bain, values Madison Fire & Rescue at $1.95 billion, a transaction seen closing in the second half of the year. Besides the outright acquisition, both 3M and Bain will take part in a joint venture in which 3M will contribute its Scott Safety business. In exchange, 3M will own a 50.1% equity ownership in the joint venture, while it will receive $700 million in cash as well. Unfortunately, few financial details on the deal have been announced, but it appears that the cash outflow for 3M is likely limited. Even if 3M would pay half the deal for Madison, and factoring in $700 million in cash proceeds from the Scott Safety joint venture, the net investment for 3M would likely be limited to a few hundred million. However, few financial details have been announced, leaving the situation rather ambiguous. A Modest Impact Whi...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have reached a record pace , The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, as Saudi Arabia reroutes shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed due to Iranian attacks. Loadings have climbed to ~3.4M bbl/day so far in March and have reached 4.5M bbl/day since the beginning of this week, even...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have reached a record pace , The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, as Saudi Arabia reroutes shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed due to Iranian attacks. Loadings have climbed to ~3.4M bbl/day so far in March and have reached 4.5M bbl/day since the beginning of this week, even exceeding 5M bbl/day on some days, according to data from oil analytics firm Kpler. "This marks uncharted territory for the Red Sea system and underscores the scale of the rerouting effort," Kpler said. Congestion in the Red Sea is emerging as a key bottleneck, as Kpler said more than 30 tankers are currently waiting offshore Yanbu—an all-time high—with loading delays stretching to around five days this week. Saudi started earlier this month diverting flows through the 750-mile East-West pipeline system that transports crude from the eastern oil fields and processing centers near the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the west coast. Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they are ready to intervene militarily if other countries join the U.S. and Israel in the war against Iran or if the Red Sea is used for "hostile operations." The Houthis, who have harassed Red Sea shipping since the Gaza war began in 2003, had remained quiet since the start of the Iran war four weeks ago, despite their military capabilities and geographic position overlooking the Red Sea. Crude oil futures rose sharply Friday and notched gains for the week, reflecting skepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the war. Despite President Trump's extension of his deadline for attacks on Iranian energy assets to allow more time for talks, crude markets added to the risk premium this week "fearing that global oil supplies may get tighter before we see meaningful relief," StoneX analysts said in a note. "Investors remain focused on the war's longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged c...
An impressive earnings report published late Thursday was the news item propelling Argan (NYSE: AGX) stock well higher on a week-over-week basis. According to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence , the industrial company's shares rose by almost 20% over the five-day period. Argan, which specializes in a range of services for the construction, power, and industrial sectors, published bot...
An impressive earnings report published late Thursday was the news item propelling Argan (NYSE: AGX) stock well higher on a week-over-week basis. According to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence , the industrial company's shares rose by almost 20% over the five-day period. Argan, which specializes in a range of services for the construction, power, and industrial sectors, published both its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results. For the quarter, revenue rose nearly 13% year over year to slightly more than $262 million. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Christopher John Kenney, the chief medical officer of Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:XENE) , reported a direct sale of 1,410 common shares for a total of approximately $78,000 on March 13, 2026, as disclosed in this SEC Form 4 filing . Transaction and post-transaction values based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price of $55.23 on March 13, 2026. * 1-year price change calculated as of ...
Christopher John Kenney, the chief medical officer of Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:XENE) , reported a direct sale of 1,410 common shares for a total of approximately $78,000 on March 13, 2026, as disclosed in this SEC Form 4 filing . Transaction and post-transaction values based on SEC Form 4 weighted average purchase price of $55.23 on March 13, 2026. * 1-year price change calculated as of March 13th, 2026. Continue reading
Litigation proceedings are working against Meta (NASDAQ: META) , which is bringing the stock down. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of March 25, 2026. The video was published on March 27, 2026. Continue reading
Litigation proceedings are working against Meta (NASDAQ: META) , which is bringing the stock down. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of March 25, 2026. The video was published on March 27, 2026. Continue reading