LD/iStock via Getty Images The U.S. Federal Reserve may be heading towards a significant policy shift as former Fed governor Kevin Warsh emerges as the nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Chair. Scott Colbourne, Managing Director and Head of Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management, discusses why a Warsh-led Fed could lean into a more limited central bank role and what it means for markets. Transcript Kim Parlee - The US Federal Reserve is heading towards a new policy direction as it awaits a change in leadership. President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor as Fed Chair, raising questions for some about central bank independence, the outlook for interest rates, and the US dollar. At the same time, there has been stress in global bond markets, including recent warning signs out of Japan that are adding to investor unease. Joining us now with his perspective is Scott Colbourne, Managing Director and Head of Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management. You know, what I could have done when I started this interview was just list all the things that are happening in the world, and I think that would take the 18 minutes that we have together. We wouldn't get a chance to talk. I mean, it's hard. There's a lot happening. Scott Colbourne - So much happening. Kim Parlee - Yeah. Let's start with the Fed. So what would a Warsh Fed look like in your opinion, and how different would it be than what markets may have been used to? What are markets expecting? Scott Colbourne - Yeah. I mean, to start off, he's a bit traditional. It's a traditional pick in the sense -- you mentioned he was a governor from 2006 to 2011. He was nominated at 35. So he was the youngest in Fed history. So credentials there. He was one of three considered for the job when Powell got it in Trump 1.0. And he was viewed as an inflation hawk. So you could sort of say he's a traditionalist in that respect. But I think what we're seeing is differences emerge. And we'll start with, he wants l...

Maksim Labkouski/iStock via Getty Images Originally Published on February 4, 2026 By Jennifer Nash The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 53.8. This was higher than the forecast of 53.5 and keeps the index at its highest level since December 2024. Here is an excerpt from the report summary : Miller continues, “January’s Services PMI ® is the result of a second month in a row of all four subindexes being in expansion territory. December 2024 and January 2025 featured similar subindex performance, but in the last two months, the PMI ® is stronger year over year by an average of 0.7 percentage point. The Employment Index expanded for a second straight month for the first time since January and February 2025. These are positive signs for continued expansion; however, the closely watched Prices Index continues to creep up, now 0.2 percentage point above its 12-month seasonally adjusted average of 66.4 percent. There was more respondent commentary in January on tariff impacts and uncertainty, potentially the result of annual contract renewals and geopolitical tensions. Gasoline and diesel fuel continued to be cited as commodities down in price. With the highest Business Activity and Supplier Deliveries index readings since October 2024, indicating higher business activity levels and slower supplier deliveries, whether pricing increases will stick or expand needs to be closely watched.” Here is a table showing the PMI's components. Unlike its much older kin, the ISM manufacturing series, there is relatively little history for ISM's non-manufacturing data, especially for the headline composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows the non-manufacturing composite. The more interesting and useful sub-component is the non-manufacturing business activity Index. In January, the index rose for a fourth straight month to 57.4, its highest level since December 2024....

格隆汇2月7日｜英伟达CEO黄仁勋在节目中表示，科技行业在人工智能基础设施方面不断增长的资本支出是合理、适当且可持续的。原因在于所有这些公司的现金流都将开始增长。黄仁勋发表这番言论之前，英伟达的主要客户 Meta、亚马逊、谷歌和微软在过去两周内相继公布了最新财报。它们告诉投资者，计划大幅增加在人工智能基础设施方面的投入。华尔街对支出激增的反应不一，Meta和Alphabet的股价上涨，但亚马逊和微软的股价却受到冲击。黄仁勋说：“只要人们继续为人工智能付费，人工智能公司能够从中获利，它们就会不断翻倍、翻倍、翻倍、翻倍。”

格隆汇2月7日｜来自综合运输春运工作专班数据显示，2026年2月6日（春运第5天），全社会跨区域人员流动量21125.7万人次，环比增长7.6%，比2025年同期（星期六）增长1.2%。其中：铁路客运量1284.5万人次，环比增长9.2%，比2025年同期下降4.5%。公路人员流动量（包括高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量、公路营业性客运量）19535万人次，环比增长7.6%，比2025年同期增长1.6%。其中，公路营业性客运量3296万人次，环比增长5.8%，比2025年同期增长3%；高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量16239万人次，环比增长8%，比2025年同期增长1.3%。水路客运量65.6万人次，环比下降8.6%，比2025年同期下降4.8%。民航客运量240.6万人次，环比增长2.6%，比2025年同期增长7.9%。

This week, AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems announced that it raised $1 billion in fresh capital at a valuation of $23 billion — a nearly threefold increase from the $8.1 billion valuation the Nvidia rival had reached just six months earlier. While the round was led by Tiger Global, a huge part of the new capital came from one of the company’s earliest backers: Benchmark Capital. The prominent Silicon Valley firm invested at least $225 million in Cerebras’ latest round, according to a person familiar with the deal. Benchmark first bet on 10-year-old Cerebras when it led the startup’s $27 million Series A in 2016. Since Benchmark deliberately keeps its funds under $450 million, the firm raised two separate vehicles, both called ‘Benchmark Infrastructure,’ according to regulatory filings. According to the person familiar with the deal, these vehicles were created specifically to fund the Cerebras investment. Benchmark declined to comment. What sets Cerebras apart is the sheer physical scale of its processors. The company’s Wafer Scale Engine, its flagship chip announced in 2024, measures approximately 8.5 inches on each side and packs 4 trillion transistors into a single piece of silicon. To put that in perspective, the chip is manufactured from nearly an entire 300-millimeter silicon wafer, the circular discs that serve as the foundation for all semiconductor production. Traditional chips are thumbnail-sized fragments cut from these wafers; Cerebras instead uses almost the whole circle. This architecture delivers 900,000 specialized cores working in parallel, allowing the system to process AI calculations without shuffling data between multiple separate chips (a major bottleneck in conventional GPU clusters). The company says the design enables AI inference tasks to run more than 20 times faster than competing systems. The funding comes as Cerebras, based in Sunnyvale, Calif., gains momentum in the AI infrastructure race. Last month, Cerebras signed a multi-year agreeme...

This week, AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems announced that it raised $1 billion in fresh capital at a valuation of $23 billion — a nearly threefold increase from the $8.1 billion valuation the Nvidia rival had reached just six months earlier. While the round was led by Tiger Global, a huge part of the new capital came from one of the company’s earliest backers: Benchmark Capital. The prominent Silicon Valley firm invested at least $225 million in Cerebras’ latest round, according to a person familiar with the deal. Benchmark first bet on 10-year-old Cerebras when it led the startup’s $27 million Series A in 2016. Since Benchmark deliberately keeps its funds under $450 million, the firm raised two separate vehicles, both called ‘Benchmark Infrastructure,’ according to regulatory filings. According to the person familiar with the deal, these vehicles were created specifically to fund the Cerebras investment. Benchmark declined to comment. What sets Cerebras apart is the sheer physical scale of its processors. The company’s Wafer Scale Engine, its flagship chip announced in 2024, measures approximately 8.5 inches on each side and packs 4 trillion transistors into a single piece of silicon. To put that in perspective, the chip is manufactured from nearly an entire 300-millimeter silicon wafer, the circular discs that serve as the foundation for all semiconductor production. Traditional chips are thumbnail-sized fragments cut from these wafers; Cerebras instead uses almost the whole circle. This architecture delivers 900,000 specialized cores working in parallel, allowing the system to process AI calculations without shuffling data between multiple separate chips (a major bottleneck in conventional GPU clusters). The company says the design enables AI inference tasks to run more than 20 times faster than competing systems. The funding comes as Cerebras, based in Sunnyvale, Calif., gains momentum in the AI infrastructure race. Last month, Cerebras signed a multi-year agreeme...

Daniel Grizelj/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction & Investment Thesis In June 2025, I published a hold-rated article on Cardinal Health, Inc. ( CAH ) given its strong growth, which was marred by tariff uncertainties and increased costs affecting its profitability. Since that publication, the stock has gained more than 48%, beating the S&P 500 significantly, a testament to its resilience. Seeking Alpha The company’s resilience is further underscored by its standout Q2 2026 performance that not only crushed expectations but also signaled accelerating momentum in its transformation towards high margins. The results which were released yesterday (5 th , February 2026), showed a solid top line growth, notable margin expansion and broad-based strength across segments. This attractive quarterly report was wrapped by a raised FY guidance for the second time in recent months. With this background, I am bullish on CAH and I upgrade it to a buy rating due to its resilience. I recommend the stock to investors seeking steady earnings growth and capital return in the health sector. Q2 2026 Highlights: Sustained Growth & Improving Margins CAH reported a Q2 total revenue of about $65.6 billion, a YoY growth of approximately 19%. This beat the consensus estimates by more than $390 million . This solid growth was driven primarily by strong demand in the pharmaceutical distribution and specialty solutions which saw a YoY revenue growth of 19%. CAH Q2 2026 Presentation This marked the fourth successive quarter of positive YoY revenue growth and the second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth an indication of growing upward revenue momentum. Moving to profitability, gross margin increased by 24% YoY to approximately $2.4 billion reflecting the company’s shift towards higher-margin areas like pharmaceuticals. This improving profitability is also seen in its non-operating earnings which surged by 38% to $877 million. Above all, its non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2...

格隆汇2月7日｜谢锋大使在“温暖迎春·共庆中国年”侨学界专场新春招待会上致辞：面对关税战、贸易战，我们坚定捍卫自身利益，坚决维护以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制。中美经贸团队举行5轮磋商，就两国经贸关系达成一系列积极共识。台湾问题是中国核心利益中的核心，是中美关系第一条不可逾越的红线。中方将继续采取措施坚定捍卫国家主权和领土完整，坚决反对反制“台独”分裂行径和外部势力干预。事实再次证明，中美合则两利、斗则俱伤，对话和合作是唯一正确选择。中美应该相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢。

While the release of the Epstein documents has sent shockwaves through the West, a less sensational but geopolitically significant event took place in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 4. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened the inaugural ministerial meeting on critical minerals at the State Department. Notably, compared to the 20 founding members of the Trump-led “Board of Peace” created during the Davos forum for the post-war reconstruction of Gaza, this gathering on critical minerals drew representatives from 54 nations — including major Western powers and key resource-rich countries in Latin America and Africa — as well as the European Union.

Hitting this mark implies lower returns going forward, which is a reasonable expectation. It's almost impossible to argue with the assumption that perhaps all investors would've loved to have owned Bitcoin (BTC +6.51%) over the past decade. That's because the leading digital asset's price has skyrocketed 19,300% during that time, even after a sharp pullback in recent weeks. However, Bitcoin still experiences periods of extreme volatility. This is exactly what's going on right now, as it trades 41% off its peak. While the so-called experts will always try to sound smart and act as if they know exactly what's going on, the reality is that pinpointing the reasons for the leading cryptocurrency's recent dip is extremely difficult. Ultimately, it's always important for investors to keep their focus on the long term. With that being said, I predict that Bitcoin's price will reach $850,000 in 10 years. Looking at the math For Bitcoin to hit $850,000 by early 2036, its price would need to increase by about 1,060% (based on the current price of $73,200). Astute readers will quickly realize that this would imply a much lower rate of return than what was achieved in the past. Given that Bitcoin is no longer some esoteric financial asset, and that it's recognized on a global scale, the gains should come down going forward. Naturally, there is less upside as the risk of investing in it subsides. Comparing Bitcoin to gold makes the most sense. The estimated value of all of the gold that's above ground is more than $34 trillion. I believe that it's totally possible that Bitcoin's market cap gets to half that of the precious metal, or about $17 trillion. Bitcoin's market cap currently sits at $1.26 trillion. It would need to rise more than 13-fold to hit the expected level. If it gets to that point, it would still have meaningful upside. For comparison's sake, the global equity market and bond market combined are measured in the hundreds of trillions of dollars. Expand CRYPTO : BTC...

格隆汇2月7日｜据澎湃，第二十五届冬奥会2月6日在意大利米兰拉开帷幕，整个开幕式持续三小时三十分钟。值得注意的是，美国副总统万斯和国务卿鲁比奥等出席了开幕式，当大屏幕上出现万斯挥舞美国国旗的画面时，现场观众发出了嘘声。此前，他因对欧洲的批评而备受关注。据路透社报道，以色列代表队亮相开幕式时，米兰的观众也发出了嘘声，但科尔蒂纳现场则响起了掌声。当乌克兰代表团的五名运动员在米兰出场时，赢得了热烈的掌声。

China has overturned the death sentence of Canadian Robert Lloyd Schellenberg, a Canadian official said on Friday, in a possible sign of a diplomatic thaw as prime minister Mark Carney seeks to boost trade ties with Beijing. Schellenberg’s lawyer Zhang Dongshuo, reached in Beijing on Saturday, confirmed the decision was announced on Friday by China’s highest court. Schellenberg was detained on drug charges in 2014 before China-Canada ties nosedived after the 2018 arrest in Vancouver of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou. That arrest infuriated Beijing, which detained two Canadians – Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig – on espionage charges that Ottawa condemned as retaliatory. Then in January 2019 a court in north-east China retried Schellenberg – who was 36 at the time – sentencing him to death while declaring that his 15-year prison term for drug trafficking had been too lenient. The court said he had been a central player in a scheme to ship narcotics to Australia, in a one-day retrial that Amnesty International called “a flagrant violation of international law”. Schellenberg has denied wrongdoing. The Canadian official requested anonymity in confirming the decision by China’s highest court to overturn Schellenberg’s death sentence. Schellenberg, who has been held in the north-eastern Chinese city of Dalian since 2014, would be retried by the Liaoning high people’s court, Zhang said. The timing for the retrial had not yet been set. Zhang said he met with Schellenberg in Dalian on Friday and that the Canadian appeared relatively relaxed. Carney, who took office last year, visited China in January as part of his global effort to broaden Canada’s export markets to reduce trade reliance on the US. “Global Affairs Canada (GAC) is aware of a decision issued by the supreme people’s court of the People’s Republic of China in Mr Robert Schellenberg’s case,” Canadian foreign ministry spokesperson Thida Ith said in a statement. Ith said the ministry “will continue t...

中信证券研报指出，年初至今，伴随Anthropic Claude cowork等系列类AI Agent产品的发布，市场对美股软件板块受损的担忧进一步发酵，叠加近期的市场极致的顺周期交易风格，以及微软、Service Now等企业平稳但缺乏亮点的四季报等，市场对美股软件板块的看衰迅速演化为一场非理性、踩踏式的抛售。 该机构强调，市场当下的判断都明显过于乐观，且不切实际： 1）模型层面，来自科研、产业领域的诸多论调表明，当前LLM仍停留在概率统计游戏层面，尚未触及人类认知核心，同时在幻觉、多模态对齐、推理能力等5个层面存在明显的理论局限性； 2）应用层面，以标普500企业为分析样本，虽然样本企业在财报中提及AI的比例每个季度都在上升，但细究具体的应用场景，仍主要集中于coding、客服等领域，这些领域要么逻辑简洁、严谨，要么容错率高，而在一些要求严苛、逻辑链条复杂的场景中仍很难胜任。同时，近期来自Salesforce的研究亦表明当前的AI Agent，相较于其出色的基准测试表现，在具体的企业应用场景中准确度仍很难让市场满意。 传统软件：多因素制约短期业绩改善 中信证券表示，面对AI叙事的压制，最好的回击方式便是自身业绩的向好改善。但短期维度这并不容易，主要源于： 1）宏观层面，持续高通胀、高波动的经济环境，以及主要企业在AI领域的持续、巨额CAPEX投入，疫情期间泡沫的持续出清等正在降低美国企业白领雇员招聘增速，并相应影响订阅制软件企业seat售卖数，而传统IT支出向AI的倾斜则拖累企业软件支出预算； 2）企业层面，面对GenAI技术浪潮，软件企业亦在快速调整、重构自身产品研发、营销服务体系，而短期最为有效的方式便是通过激进的M&A手段。历史上，资本市场对于软件板块M&A一直持有负面看法，主要担心企业内生增速放缓，以及并购后整合风险等，同时系列的M&A亦使得软件企业之间的产品重叠现象加剧，并带来竞争层面担忧进一步升温。伴随美国宏观环境的持续改善，叠加AI产品逐步落地，预计美股软件企业业绩有望逐季改善，但斜率难言理想。 投资建议：布局资产负债表稳健的平台企业 历次科技浪潮中，软件板块均会面临严重的质疑，本次AI浪潮亦不例外。相较于AI初创企业，软件企业在客户资源、交付服务、领域知识&数据积累等层面具有明显优势，同时亦在通过M&A、产品&商业模式调整等积极应对可能的AI冲击...

《科创板日报》2月7日讯（记者 王楚凡） 2月6日晚间，亚辉龙公告称，其收到证监会下发的《立案告知书》，因涉嫌信息披露违法违规被证监会立案调查。 同日（2月6日），中国证监会官网披露，已对亚辉龙立案调查，原因系该公司此前披露的与深圳脑机星链科技有限公司（下称：脑机星链）的战略合作框架协议公告涉嫌误导性陈述，下一步证监会将在全面调查基础上依法处理，切实维护资本市场健康发展。 此前，今年1月7日，亚辉龙披露公告称，公司与脑机星链签署《战略合作框架协议》，双方拟整合各自在临床市场资源与脑机接口技术方面的优势，共同推进相关产品研发与市场拓展，提升在中枢神经疾病等领域的诊疗技术水平。 公告显示，脑机星链成立于2025年9月，主要从事脑疾病综合诊断、治疗与康复一体化业务，亚辉龙通过间接持股方式持有其4%股权；该协议为不涉及具体金额的框架性、意向性协议，无需提交公司董事会或股东大会审议，也无需履行外部审批或备案程序，有效期为五年，预计对本年度业绩不构成重大影响。 《科创板日报》记者注意到，亚辉龙最初披露的公告中， 曾称脑机星链是一家以人工智能为核心驱动力，深耕非侵入式与侵入式双技术路径的企业，已开发脑电采集分析仪等产品，但这一表述随后出现变更 。 就在战略合作公告披露当日，亚辉龙便同步发布补充公告，进一步说明合作细节并提示相关风险，明确脑机星链目前规模较小、成立时间较短，相关产品多处于早期阶段——其中迷走神经刺激仪正处于二类医疗器械注册检查阶段，其余睡眠相关产品尚未进入注册申报流程，阿尔茨海默症、孤独症等领域相关产品仍处于早期研发或临床前阶段。 补充公告还更正了此前的技术路径表述，强调脑机星链采用的均为非侵入式技术路线，与马斯克旗下Neuralink的侵入式技术路径存在本质区别，且公司当前无侵入式技术布局，再次重申协议仅为框架性意向，无实质性合作内容。 同日（今年1月7日），亚辉龙收到上海证券交易所科创板公司管理部下发的问询函及监管警示决定。该问询函围绕脑机星链技术产品情况、双方合作可行性、公司股权投资合理性及股价异动内幕信息自查等四大核心问题，要求公司补充披露；监管警示则明确，因公司此前公告中对合作方技术路径表述前后不一致、未充分提示相关风险，认定其信息披露不准确、不完整，可能对投资者产生误导，要求公司及时任董事会秘书王鸣阳整改并提交报告，切实提升信息披露质量。 而后，今年1月...