Escobar: The Long And Winding Petro-Gold Road Authored by Pepe Escobar, The 15-point plan that Team Trump presented to Iran is already D.O.A. It’s an imposed capitulation: a surrender document disguised as “negotiation”. The non-plan plan – imposing demands while begging for a one-month ceasefire – includes zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; full dismantlement of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow i...
Escobar: The Long And Winding Petro-Gold Road Authored by Pepe Escobar, The 15-point plan that Team Trump presented to Iran is already D.O.A. It’s an imposed capitulation: a surrender document disguised as “negotiation”. The non-plan plan – imposing demands while begging for a one-month ceasefire – includes zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; full dismantlement of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow installations; all enriched uranium out of Iran; the missile program extremely restricted; no funding for Hezbollah, Ansarallah and Iraqi militias; the Strait of Hormuz totally opened. All that in exchange for a vague “cancelling the threat of reimposing sanctions”. The only realistic Iranian response to this accumulated wishful thinking might be Mr. Khorramshahr-4 showering his business card across selected targets – consistent with leveraging economic and military deterrence to dictate the real terms. And the real terms are harsh: Closure of ALL US military bases in the Gulf ; guarantee of no more wars; end of the war on Hezbollah; lifting of ALL sanctions; war damage reparations; a new order in the Strait of Hormuz (already in effect: collecting fees just like Egypt in Suez); missile program intact. Conclusion: the infernal escalation machine keeps rolling. A Member’s Club With an Entrance Fee in Petroyuan Meanwhile, oil and gas prices are mired in a kaleidoscope of volatility, affecting currencies, equities, commodities, supply chains, inflation scares. This is already an out-of-control global economic shock with devastating consequences in progress. Before the war, Iran was producing a little less of 1.1 million barrels of oil a day, sold at $65 a barrel with a $18 discount: thus, in practice only $47. Now, Iran has increased production to 1.5 million barrels a day, selling at $110 (and counting), mostly to China, with a maximum $4 discount. And that does not even include petrochemical sales: on the up and up, and for an array of extra customers. To round it all up, all...
Key PointsMoody's artificial intelligence (AI) recession model has reached 49% probability -- and historically, once it crosses 50%, a recession has followed within a year.
Key PointsMoody's artificial intelligence (AI) recession model has reached 49% probability -- and historically, once it crosses 50%, a recession has followed within a year.
bymuratdeniz/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our CEF Market Weekly Review, where we discuss closed-end fund [CEF] market activity from both the bottom-up - highlighting individual fund news and events - as well as the top-down - providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to provide some historical context as well as the relevant themes that look to be drivin...
bymuratdeniz/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our CEF Market Weekly Review, where we discuss closed-end fund [CEF] market activity from both the bottom-up - highlighting individual fund news and events - as well as the top-down - providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to provide some historical context as well as the relevant themes that look to be driving markets or that investors ought to be mindful of. This update covers the period through the third week of March. Be sure to check out our other weekly updates covering the business development company [BDC] as well as the preferreds/baby bond markets for perspectives across the broader income space. Market Action Most CEF sectors were down on the week, following lower Treasuries and equities. Only MLPs and Loans finished in the green. Systematic Income The median CEF sector discount remains wider of its longer-term historic average. Systematic Income Discounts and discount percentile metrics look most appealing for the sectors below. Systematic Income We suggested in 2024 that when the Fed starts to cut the policy rate, loan CEFs will begin to cut distributions (blue line) and this will drive its then expensive valuation relative to the rest of the CEF market (green line) significantly cheaper. This is indeed what has happened though a part of the cheapening of loan CEFs likely also has to do with a broader concern about "cockroaches" and the impact of AI disruption on software companies. Systematic Income Market Themes Aberdeen infrastructure CEF ASGI wants to ditch its term structure with a proposal being put for a shareholder vote. The fund has a scheduled termination date in 2035. Interestingly, the fund’s annual report says there is a provision to hold a tender offer leading into the termination date which would allow the fund to turn into a perpetual fund if there are $100m of assets remaining (out of $600mm+ assets now). This is basically the "best practice" for te...
Shopify launched its Agentic Storefront feature, allowing merchants to sell directly through AI channels like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Google Search AI mode. The rollout extends to both existing Shopify merchants and non Shopify brands, opening a new AI driven commerce channel. The launch positions NasdaqGS:SHOP as an early mover in connecting retail product catalogs to conversational AI in...
Shopify launched its Agentic Storefront feature, allowing merchants to sell directly through AI channels like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Google Search AI mode. The rollout extends to both existing Shopify merchants and non Shopify brands, opening a new AI driven commerce channel. The launch positions NasdaqGS:SHOP as an early mover in connecting retail product catalogs to conversational AI interfaces. NasdaqGS:SHOP is trading at a share price of $111.85, with a return of 15.7% over the...
If you’ve driven on the far western edge of the city lately, you’ve likely noticed that Amazon and Shamrock Foods have a new neighbor. That neighbor is Array Technologies, a publicly traded renewable energy company and global solar tracker technology leader based in Albuquerque. A little more than two years after announcing plans for a major manufacturing campus on Albuquerque’s West Side, the ...
If you’ve driven on the far western edge of the city lately, you’ve likely noticed that Amazon and Shamrock Foods have a new neighbor. That neighbor is Array Technologies, a publicly traded renewable energy company and global solar tracker technology leader based in Albuquerque. A little more than two years after announcing plans for a major manufacturing campus on Albuquerque’s West Side, the ...
After the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) gained more than 16% in 2025, investors entered 2026 hoping for more of the same -- but that hasn't happened. The large-cap stock index is down roughly 7% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) has slipped about 8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has fallen more than 10%. That picture could soon get worse...
After the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) gained more than 16% in 2025, investors entered 2026 hoping for more of the same -- but that hasn't happened. The large-cap stock index is down roughly 7% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) has slipped about 8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has fallen more than 10%. That picture could soon get worse: Moody's just revealed that the firm's artificial intelligence (AI)-driven recession model now puts the probability of a U.S. recession at 49%. While that sounds like a coin toss, when backtested over 80 years of data, every time the model's odds crossed the 50% line, a recession followed within a year. Continue reading
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images The State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF ( SPAB ) now yields near 4.7% on a yield-to-maturity (YTM) basis. That's more than 1.1 percentage points above the best money market rate you’ll come across. In fact, for the first time in more than three years, both the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury rates are materially above the Fed Funds rate. What d...
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images The State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF ( SPAB ) now yields near 4.7% on a yield-to-maturity (YTM) basis. That's more than 1.1 percentage points above the best money market rate you’ll come across. In fact, for the first time in more than three years, both the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury rates are materially above the Fed Funds rate. What does that mean for investors? Well, there’s now ample excess yield, in my opinion, to step out on the duration-risk curve. Hence, I have a buy rating on the US Aggregate Bond Index, which retail investors can play through SPAB. I had a buy rating on SPAB back in July of 2023 , and the fund has returned 11.4% (total return) since then. 2-Year & 10-Year Yields Well Above the Fed Funds Rate MacroMicroMe According to the issuer, SPAB seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. It is a low-cost ETF that seeks to offer comprehensive exposure to US dollar denominated investment grade bonds, including government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage pass-through securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities. SPAB is a medium-sized ETF, now with $9.2 billion in assets under management as of March 27, 2026. Its annual expense ratio is low at 3 basis points, while the trailing 12-month dividend yield is 4.0%. Keep in mind that the YTM is the best proxy for what investors should expect to receive on a go-forward basis. Share-price momentum has been dreadful lately. The ETF Grade in that category is a weak D+ by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system. I’d call out that risk-adjusted returns were actually quite strong from October 2023 through this past February. But sharply higher interest rates in the past four weeks has weighed on the bond index fund. Risk levels are in check, thanks to its high-quality, moderate-duration profile. ...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Now that the S&P 500 has closed firmly below the -5% line, the next level of support is the -10% line, which is roughly 6300. What began as an orderly pullback has turned into a fear-driven slide. Today we’ll go through the charts to find out where most of the selling is happening, and which parts of the market are holding up the best. S&P 500 Last 4 Weeks I ha...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Now that the S&P 500 has closed firmly below the -5% line, the next level of support is the -10% line, which is roughly 6300. What began as an orderly pullback has turned into a fear-driven slide. Today we’ll go through the charts to find out where most of the selling is happening, and which parts of the market are holding up the best. S&P 500 Last 4 Weeks I had to rescale this chart for the second time in two weeks to accommodate the market’s rapid decline. This chart clearly shows the downdraft we’ve been in for the last 4 weeks. And for now, there doesn't seem to be any relief on the near-term horizon. S&P 500 last 4 weeks (ZenInvestor) Zoom out to 12 months We’re almost at the end of March and the S&P 500 is down 7.4%. That’s the worst monthly decline we have seen in the last 12 months. You have to go all the way back to September 2022 to find a worse monthly showing. S&P 500 returns by month (author's compilation) S&P 500 drawdowns You can see on this chart how the decline has accelerated. The only positive thing I can say about this is that we are about due for an oversold bounce. The question is, will you sell the rally, or buy the dip? If you have a written investment policy, you already know the answer. S&P 500 drawdowns (ZenInvestor) A look at the bull run since 2022. Here is another chart that is calling out for an oversold bounce. We haven’t reached the 15% drawdown that we experienced one year ago, but we could get there if this Iran war drags on. S&P 500 price since 2022 (ZenInvestor) Major index performance last week This chart has some valuable information for us. The Mag 7 had another bad week, which dragged down the Nasdaq 100 as well as the full Nasdaq index. That was expected. Foreign markets held up better than domestic ones – again, not a big surprise. But the interesting thing is the way small, mid, and micro-cap stocks actually went up last week. That’s where the big money was going, and large caps were th...
The U.S. reportedly is making plans for Iran war ground operations. The stock market is already at six-month lows with oil prices at $100. Tesla deliveries loom.
The U.S. reportedly is making plans for Iran war ground operations. The stock market is already at six-month lows with oil prices at $100. Tesla deliveries loom.
Procter & Gamble, owner of the Crest toothpaste brand, will announce its 70th year of dividend growth in the first half of April. NoDerog/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images This is the latest in my series of articles where I provide predictions of annual dividend increases for long-term dividend growth companies. At the end of February, I provided predictions for 10 dividend growth companies that ...
Procter & Gamble, owner of the Crest toothpaste brand, will announce its 70th year of dividend growth in the first half of April. NoDerog/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images This is the latest in my series of articles where I provide predictions of annual dividend increases for long-term dividend growth companies. At the end of February, I provided predictions for 10 dividend growth companies that have historically announced annual payout increases in March. In this article I’ll look at another 9 dividend growth companies that I expect will announce their annual dividend increases in the first half of April. Before we see how my predictions from March fared (you can see the original predictions here ) and my predictions for the first half of April, there were a few other long-term dividend growth companies that announced their annual dividend increase in the second half of February: - Electronic component manufacturer TE Connectivity plc ( TEL ) announced a 9.9% dividend increase to an annualized $3.12, giving the company a forward yield of 1.54%. This is the company’s 13th year of dividend growth. - Waste Management ( WM ) announced a 14.5% increase for its 23rd year of dividend growth. The new annual rate of $3.78 gives the company a forward yield of 1.68%. - Semiconductor equipment manufacturer KLA Corporation ( KLAC ) announced its 17th year of dividend growth with a 21.1% boost to an annualized $9.20, giving the company a forward yield of 0.64%. (All yields are based on stock prices at the market close on Friday, March 27th.) Results for Dividend Increase Announcements in March Best Buy Co., Inc. ( BBY ) – 22 years Prediction: 4.2–5.8% increase to $3.96–$4.02 Actual: 1.1% increase to $3.84 Forward yield: 6.10% The electronics retailer announced a second year of 4-cent annual dividend growth. Colgate-Palmolive Company ( CL )—63 years of dividend growth Prediction: 2.9–4.8% increase to $2.14–$2.18 Actual: 1.9% increase to $2.12 Forward yield: 2.52% Dividend growth...
Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East The Iran war has been bad for Ukraine, and President Zelensky knows it. He's frequently been warning partners not to let the global focus on the latest Middle East war distract from supporting Kiev. But President Trump himself made fresh remarks highlighting just this situation, signaling he's willing to reroute arms originally t...
Trump Ready To Take US Arms For Ukraine & Divert Them To Middle East The Iran war has been bad for Ukraine, and President Zelensky knows it. He's frequently been warning partners not to let the global focus on the latest Middle East war distract from supporting Kiev. But President Trump himself made fresh remarks highlighting just this situation, signaling he's willing to reroute arms originally tied to Ukraine toward the Middle East theater against Iran , reinforcing the obvious and growing pivot in US priorities. Reporter: Is the U.S. diverting some munitions that were meant for Ukraine to the Middle East? Trump: We do that all the time. We have a lot of munitions. Sometimes we take from one and use for another. pic.twitter.com/yxxCB7TlLb — Clash Report (@clashreport) March 26, 2026 Pressed on reports that shipments were being redirected on Thursday, Trump shrugged it off as standard practice: "We do that all the time. We have a lot of munitions. Sometimes we take from one and use for another." He added Washington is no longer directly supplying the Ukrainian government and armed forces, but is instead "selling" weapons to NATO states that then pass them along. This has for many months been the White House's stated plan. According to The Washington Post , officials say the Pentagon is weighing whether to divert missile interceptors initially intended for NATO purchase for Ukraine and send them to the Middle East. While a final decision hasn't been made, or has at least not been publicly declared, this would be reasonable given how much US bases in the region have struggled to intercept Iran's inbound missiles and drones. On Friday Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia was hit, wounding at least a dozen US troops , with reports of several in serious condition. Expensive US Air Force planes were also hit. Clearly the US needs more interceptors, and yet Ukraine has for months been raising the alarm over its need for more Patriots and other air defense systems. Russia...