Investors are getting carried away with bets on higher U.S. interest rates, warning that markets are misreading how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond to an oil-driven inflation shock, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders have rapidly shifted expectations in recent days as surging energy prices, rising import costs and intensifying stagflation fears rattled global markets. At one point Friday...
Investors are getting carried away with bets on higher U.S. interest rates, warning that markets are misreading how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond to an oil-driven inflation shock, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders have rapidly shifted expectations in recent days as surging energy prices, rising import costs and intensifying stagflation fears rattled global markets. At one point Friday, futures markets implied a greater-than-even chance that the Fed could raise rates by the end of 2026, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Those odds fell back to about 14% by Monday morning. "The market has priced a much larger hawkish shock than historical experience would suggest," strategist Dominic Wilson wrote in a note. "We think the market is mispricing the policy distribution now, though the 1990 experience suggests the market could struggle to reverse that properly while oil prices are rising sharply." The shift in expectations has been fueled by a surge in global Brent crude prices , which have climbed above $115 a barrel as the Iran war drags on, compounding inflation concerns already heightened by U.S. tariffs. The backdrop has prompted some investors to question whether the Fed might be forced back into tightening mode despite signs of slowing growth. @LCO.1 mountain 2026-03-02 Brent in March Goldman said history offers a cautionary parallel. During the 1990 oil supply shock — which shares similarities with the current environment — markets initially pushed yields sharply higher, pricing in a hawkish policy response. Ultimately, however, the Fed moved in the opposite direction, cutting rates as economic conditions deteriorated. "So we have precedent for the market leaning heavily on the risk of higher rates, and demanding a sizable risk premium, even though the Fed ultimately cut rates sharply in that episode," the strategists said. President Donald Trump offered investors hope that an end to the war against Iran is drawing near. While the president a...
Higher oil prices could breathe new life into offshore drilling and support a comeback for Airbus Helicopters’ ( EADSF )( EADSY ) H225 Super Puma, Reuters reported Monday, citing the company’s departing chief executive. The aircraft’s reputation suffered after a 2016 crash in Norway that led to a six-month grounding and raised safety concerns. Since then, the redesigned model has returned to servi...
Higher oil prices could breathe new life into offshore drilling and support a comeback for Airbus Helicopters’ ( EADSF )( EADSY ) H225 Super Puma, Reuters reported Monday, citing the company’s departing chief executive. The aircraft’s reputation suffered after a 2016 crash in Norway that led to a six-month grounding and raised safety concerns. Since then, the redesigned model has returned to service in markets such as Brazil, Nigeria and parts of Asia, though operators in the North Sea remain cautious. Airbus Helicopters CEO Bruno Even said customers will ultimately determine adoption, but he expects the H225 to gradually regain share in offshore operations over time. The outlook is tied in part to rising oil prices, which have climbed sharply amid geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Higher prices tend to make expensive offshore projects more viable, potentially increasing demand for long-range transport helicopters. While the industry has recently favored smaller aircraft, Even suggested the H225 could benefit as aging models such as the Sikorsky S-92 approach replacement. He also noted that military demand has helped sustain the H225 production network. Supply chain conditions have improved, with fewer parts shortages than in recent years, though some suppliers are still struggling and require attention. Even is stepping down after eight years leading the division, during which orders doubled. He will be succeeded by Matthieu Louvot. During his tenure, Airbus introduced the H140, its first new helicopter in a decade, aimed at eventually complementing and partly replacing the widely used H135. Both models are expected to remain in service for now. The company continues to explore future designs, though Even declined to discuss specific development programs, suggesting that projects with coded names are intentionally kept confidential. He emphasized that demand remains strong for current models such as the H145, even as Airbus invests in innovation for the next ge...
Five miles from their former city zoo, seven gorillas are exploring their new ‘African forest’ home It has been an eventful few months for Bristol’s gorillas. The troop made headlines across the world when an urban explorer snapped pictures of them looking downbeat in their old, almost deserted home near the city centre. Then they were moved – under armed police escort – to a new out-of-town base ...
Five miles from their former city zoo, seven gorillas are exploring their new ‘African forest’ home It has been an eventful few months for Bristol’s gorillas. The troop made headlines across the world when an urban explorer snapped pictures of them looking downbeat in their old, almost deserted home near the city centre. Then they were moved – under armed police escort – to a new out-of-town base and promptly suffered a shock bereavement. On Monday, in warm spring sunshine, the western lowland gorillas were to be found exploring a new woodland habitat at Bristol Zoo Project, five miles from their former city home. Continue reading...
Uber Technologies Inc. has acquired the chauffeur booking app Blacklane, the company’s latest move to court a high-end clientele. The deal will expand Uber’s offerings targeting business executives and wealthy consumers, a fast-growing segment of the business, the company said in a statement on Monday. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026. Financial terms were not disclosed. Com...
Uber Technologies Inc. has acquired the chauffeur booking app Blacklane, the company’s latest move to court a high-end clientele. The deal will expand Uber’s offerings targeting business executives and wealthy consumers, a fast-growing segment of the business, the company said in a statement on Monday. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026. Financial terms were not disclosed. Competition is heating up at the luxury end of the ride-hailing market. Uber just a few weeks ago introduced a new chauffeur ride option called Uber Elite. Last week, London-based Wheely, which specializes in serving business elites and high net worth individuals, announced that it is expanding to New York City, its first US market. And in a move similar to the Blacklane acquisition, Lyft Inc. bought TBR Global Chaufferuing five months ago for $110 million. Read More: Luxury Ride-Hailing App Wheely Expands to NYC, Targeting Elites Berlin-based Blacklane, whose backers include Mercedes-Benz Mobility AG , operates in more 500 cities across more than 60 countries through a mobile app and web booking platform. The purchase is set to bolster Uber Elite , which the rideshare giant is so far offering to frequent Uber Black riders and corporate account customers in Los Angeles and San Francisco. It is planning to expand the service soon to New York City. Uber’s premium ride options, which include Uber Comfort, SUV and Black, already account for more than $10 billion in annualized gross bookings, the company said last year, representing a 35% increase from the prior year. Blacklane was founded in 2011 and was valued at more than €500 million ($574 million) after a 2024 funding round, Bloomberg reported at the time. Its investors include Tasaru Mobility Investments, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, as well as Gargash Enterprises LLC, Al Fahim Group and RI Digital Ventures. Read More: Chauffeur Firm Blacklane Draws Saudi Arabia’s PIF in New Round
Bank of America is incrementally more bullish on JBS N.V. ( JBS ) after sizing up the protein processing giant's fourth-quarter earnings report. Analyst Isabella Simonato said JBS' ( JBS ) US beef margins came in better than expected during the quarter and noted that the dividend announcement reinforces the status of JBS ( JBS ) as a strong carry for investors. The firm's overall positive view on ...
Bank of America is incrementally more bullish on JBS N.V. ( JBS ) after sizing up the protein processing giant's fourth-quarter earnings report. Analyst Isabella Simonato said JBS' ( JBS ) US beef margins came in better than expected during the quarter and noted that the dividend announcement reinforces the status of JBS ( JBS ) as a strong carry for investors. The firm's overall positive view on JBS ( JBS ) is driven by product & geographic diversification, which has reduced earnings volatility, as well as the strong demand for proteins, mainly in the U.S., which has kept meat prices high. The company's steady growth via M&A driven by a solid track record and additional firepower of $10B was also highlighted. In terms of valuation, JBS ( JBS ) was noted to trade at an attractive valuation vs. U.S. peers and is anticipated to close the gap gradually after it moved the listing from Brazil to the U.S. Shares of JBS ( JBS ) are up more than 16% over the last week. BofA's price objective of $21 on JBS implies even more upside. More on JBS N.V. JBS: Attractive Risk/Reward Opportunity JBS N.V. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation JBS: Meat In The U.S. Has Never Been So Expensive, And This Company Can Help Pay The Bill JBS N.V. posts record revenue in Q4 despite tight cattle availability JBS N.V. Q4 2025 Earnings Preview
Vertigo3d/iStock via Getty Images Focus of Article: The focus of this two-part article is to provide a very detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. ( RITM ) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers I currently fully cover. I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on RITM and some of the company's...
Vertigo3d/iStock via Getty Images Focus of Article: The focus of this two-part article is to provide a very detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. ( RITM ) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers I currently fully cover. I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on RITM and some of the company's mREIT peers at periodic intervals. For readers who just want the summarized conclusions/results, I would suggest to scroll down to the "Conclusions Drawn" section at the bottom of each part of the article. PART 1 of this article analyzed RITM's recent results and compared several of the company's metrics to 17 mREIT peers. PART 1 also showed how RITM's book value ("BV") as of 12/31/2025 compared to the 17 other mREIT peers. PART 1 helps lead to a better understanding of the topics and analysis that will be discussed in PART 2. The focus of PART 2 of this article is to compare RITM's recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several dividend sustainability metrics to 17 mREIT peers. This analysis will show recent past data with supporting documentation within Table 11 below. This article will also discuss RITM's dividend sustainability which is partially based on the metrics outlined in Table 11. A more in-depth analysis of RITM's dividend sustainability will be provided in Table 12 below. By analyzing these metrics, one will better understand which mREIT generally has a safer dividend rate going forward versus other peers who generally have a higher risk for a dividend decrease or a higher probability of a dividend increase and/or a special periodic dividend being declared. When both back testing and projecting the metrics within this analysis, the results have continued to be proven extremely reliable. This is not the only data that should be examined to initiate a position within a particular stock/sector. However, I believe this analysis would be a good "s...
Alexander Sikov Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) CEO Nikesh Arora warned that as the capabilities of frontier AI models such as those by Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) and OpenAI ( OPENAI ) continue to improve, so does their ability to target weak points. "The frontier model capabilities are no longer theoretical," Arora said in a blog post . "Anthropic, OpenAI and others will soon be releasing models that are, ...
Alexander Sikov Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) CEO Nikesh Arora warned that as the capabilities of frontier AI models such as those by Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) and OpenAI ( OPENAI ) continue to improve, so does their ability to target weak points. "The frontier model capabilities are no longer theoretical," Arora said in a blog post . "Anthropic, OpenAI and others will soon be releasing models that are, by any honest measure, proficient at finding vulnerabilities at scale. These are not incremental improvements. Imagine a horde of agents methodically cataloging every weakness in your technology infrastructure, constantly." Last week, a data leak of Anthropic documents revealed an upcoming model dubbed Mythos. "Although Mythos is currently far ahead of any other AI model in cyber capabilities, it presages an upcoming wave of models that can exploit vulnerabilities in ways that far outpace the efforts of defenders," according to an unpublished blog by Anthropic. Arora contends that over the next six months, the release of increasingly powerful AI models will enhance the efforts of hackers. "What makes this moment different is not just capability," he said. "It is the asymmetry, and for now, it favors the attacker. A single bad actor will now be able to run campaigns that once required entire teams. The models do not pause for sleep, they scale, and they only have to be right once. Defenders have to be right every time. That is not a fair fight." This makes the efforts of cybersecurity providers more crucial than ever, he said. Security of technological infrastructure requires supplementation with AI. In other words, "we must fight AI with AI." "It's important to remember that these models aren't effective as comprehensive defense systems," he said. "They never will be. They are powerful, but they need scaffolding that we've spent years building." The scaffolding includes sensors across networks, cloud, endpoints, and browsers; AI-enabled data lakes that can identify suspicio...
Voyager Technologies ( VOYG ) on Monday announced a new mission management contract with Icarus Robotics to test their free-flying robotic platform, Joyride, aboard the International Space Station . Under the agreement, Voyager will oversee payload integration, safety certification, launch coordination, on-orbit operations planning, and real-time mission execution support. The Joyride demonstratio...
Voyager Technologies ( VOYG ) on Monday announced a new mission management contract with Icarus Robotics to test their free-flying robotic platform, Joyride, aboard the International Space Station . Under the agreement, Voyager will oversee payload integration, safety certification, launch coordination, on-orbit operations planning, and real-time mission execution support. The Joyride demonstration will take place in early 2027 and will focus on validating autonomous navigation, maneuverability, and operational performance in a live space station environment. VOYG +4.48% premarket to $23.81 Source: Press Release More on Voyager Technologies, Inc. Voyager: Scaling Defence Momentum, Starlab Optionality Remains Voyager Technologies raises 2026 revenue guidance to $225M–$255M amid record backlog and expanded defense demand Voyager Technologies, Inc. Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.37 misses by $0.01, revenue of $46.7M misses by $1.37M
guvendemir/E+ via Getty Images Background The Washington Post has reported that the Pentagon is preparing for substantial ground operations in Iran. This follows on the heels of reporting from Axios, suggesting that the Pentagon was preparing options for a final blow . As of now, the rumored plans call for targeted and limited operations rather than a full-scale invasion. At the very least, howeve...
guvendemir/E+ via Getty Images Background The Washington Post has reported that the Pentagon is preparing for substantial ground operations in Iran. This follows on the heels of reporting from Axios, suggesting that the Pentagon was preparing options for a final blow . As of now, the rumored plans call for targeted and limited operations rather than a full-scale invasion. At the very least, however, any substantial ground operations are a big step on what could be a very slippery slope. Most importantly, for this discussion, what happens in the region could have a major impact on energy and trade, thus in turn impacting the global economy and markets worldwide. Food security and agriculture, too, could evolve into a serious concern as fertilizer shipments are blocked. Below, we see that once the conflict kicked off on February 28th, the S&P 500 went into a rather dramatic decline. Slippery slope indeed. Data by YCharts Markets and the global economy have already been dramatically impacted by the air war, but a ground war will likely exacerbate many of the economic pressures. Even before recent developments, recession odds had already been climbing . Some experts suggest that the global economy could slump at the two-month mark , which is fast approaching, assuming the Strait remains closed. My gut says we're further away from a recession, but the risks are compounding no matter how you cut it. Against this backdrop, investors should be on their toes. Below, I outline several potential developments and what I believe could unfold. For investors, anticipating various scenarios could speed up reaction times. Of course, individual investors can and should incorporate their personal outlook and insights while considering the outcome of various scenarios. I will also highlight what I believe are some of the more likely outcomes, but I suggest investors keep a tab on developments and adjust as needed. Outlook Considerations and Thesis Seeking Alpha Many Asian stock markets...
D-Keine/E+ via Getty Images I told you that the re-rating of Inspired Entertainment ( INSE ) to a near-pure-play B2B supplier for iGaming wouldn't be a smooth ride. Well, there have been some bumps along the way. Some even in the last quarter. Probably the biggest one was the sale of Leisure in the UK (~11,000 machines) below book value to GENDA. But don't overlook the new UK budget . Seeking Alph...
D-Keine/E+ via Getty Images I told you that the re-rating of Inspired Entertainment ( INSE ) to a near-pure-play B2B supplier for iGaming wouldn't be a smooth ride. Well, there have been some bumps along the way. Some even in the last quarter. Probably the biggest one was the sale of Leisure in the UK (~11,000 machines) below book value to GENDA. But don't overlook the new UK budget . Seeking Alpha I also told you in the last article that this would almost double the RGD to 40% for iGaming, and, as >70% of revenue still comes from the UK, this would be a huge headwind. It's not a eureka moment at this point. You (and probably the entire market) already knew this at least a quarter ago. The reason the stock plummeted by double digits is the latest earnings . As soon as the report came out, the market didn't digest it well and took it to ~$6. I think there's no better place to start this write-up than there. After all, if the market is underpricing Inspired and my medium-term price target of ~$17–$19 is still valid, the upside here is huge, more than doubling in a year or two. It's good to mention a thing or two about STRATA too. This is an end-to-end omnichannel platform from Inspired for lotteries (not just iLottery!) that they just launched. And the best part is, it's not baked into the guidance. Walking with the Bears I read and reread these results trying to understand what the bears are thinking. Well, on the first reading I realized that everything was pointing towards my ' Operation Cash Cow ' thesis and a re-rating for FY 2027. Take my hand here and think with me. In Q4, Interactive (Inspired's darling) continued its streak of 10 consecutive quarters with adjusted EBITDA growth above ~40%, and 52% of the company's total adjusted EBITDA is already digital. Earnings Presentation With a more asset-light mix focused on B2B content, the margin was 42% in Q4. Slightly above the target for the whole year (~37%), but when I remove the EBITDA from that Leisure divisio...
Welcome to Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. In today’s edition, we look at how African countries are trying to deal with surging fuel costs. Also: Egypt’s Sisi urges Trump to end the Iran war Mozambique overtakes Senegal as most-distressed credit And finally, an ex-finance minister was detain...
Welcome to Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. In today’s edition, we look at how African countries are trying to deal with surging fuel costs. Also: Egypt’s Sisi urges Trump to end the Iran war Mozambique overtakes Senegal as most-distressed credit And finally, an ex-finance minister was detained by ICE Hitting the Pocket The war on Iran is beginning to hit home in Africa. Governments — many dependent on refined-fuel imports — are scrambling to find ways to shield their economies from the devastation of higher energy prices and insufficient supply triggered by the conflict. Namibia is halving its fuel levies and Kenya will use its petroleum-development duty to help cap costs as gas stations already grapple with supply shortages. Some Ethiopian firms have urged staff to work from home to ease demand as motorists queue for days to fill tanks, while Egypt has given restaurants and retailers a 9 p.m. curfew, even as it secured oil from its neighbor Libya. Somalia — with no means to intervene — has seen fuel prices more than double. Mali and Botswana also ramped up diesel and gasoline costs. Top oil producer Nigeria has the fuel to keep its economy running thanks to the giant Dangote refinery, although its pump prices have also climbed. In South Africa, citizens are still awaiting word on the state’s plan. As things stand, they’re bracing for what will likely be the biggest fuel-price increase since 2008 come midnight tomorrow. Market movements point to a diesel hike of at least 50% (prices are changed at the start of each month). For Africa’s biggest economy, the alarm bells are ringing and President Cyril Ramaphosa has assembled a cabinet group to urgently find a solution to cushion the blow for consumers. Johannesburg’s key stocks gauge is heading for its worst month in almost two decades, reeling as the war saps demand for emerging-market assets while plunging pre...
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( AJG ) has acquired Brisbane-based International Insurance Brokers Pty, with terms undisclosed. The acquired firm specializes in retail brokerage, particularly property coverage for non-profit organizations. Leadership team Justin McPherson and Vince Mason will join Gallagher’s Brisbane office. More on Arthur J.Gallagher Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Discusses Strategy...
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( AJG ) has acquired Brisbane-based International Insurance Brokers Pty, with terms undisclosed. The acquired firm specializes in retail brokerage, particularly property coverage for non-profit organizations. Leadership team Justin McPherson and Vince Mason will join Gallagher’s Brisbane office. More on Arthur J.Gallagher Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Discusses Strategy, Organic Growth Outlook, and AI Initiatives in Investor Meeting Transcript Arthur J. Gallagher: Cloudy Investment Case Due To AI Disruption Risk Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Arthur J. Gallagher buys Asset Partners Private Wealth Key deals this week: KORE, TopBuild, Equinix, PayPal and more