VladimirKhodataev/iStock via Getty Images Introduction I have been invested in and reporting on the memory chip sector via Micron ( MU ) no longer the ugly duckling , and Sandisk ( SNDK ) moving up the value chain, since mid-2025. As part of the analysis, I compare growth and valuation metrics vs. other memory players, and Seagate ( STX ) consistently pops up as the most expensive. At first, I tho...
VladimirKhodataev/iStock via Getty Images Introduction I have been invested in and reporting on the memory chip sector via Micron ( MU ) no longer the ugly duckling , and Sandisk ( SNDK ) moving up the value chain, since mid-2025. As part of the analysis, I compare growth and valuation metrics vs. other memory players, and Seagate ( STX ) consistently pops up as the most expensive. At first, I thought it was due to overenthusiasm for everything memory; while hard disk drives are significantly different from DRAM and NAND memory semiconductors, both have had similar cyclicity and drivers. Thus, I dove deeper into the fundamentals and investment case, and the initial outlook seems correct, and I rate STX a sell. HHD Market The hard disk drive market is substantially smaller than NAND and DRAM in terms of value, while total storage, measured in exabytes, is the reverse. The key difference is the speed at which HDD functions; unlike DRAM and NAND, which are semiconductor-based and very fast, the hard disk is an electromagnetic process, and while storage capacity is huge, it's very slow and cannot be used in AI training or agentic processing. Nonetheless, demand for storage will grow, and HDD has a similar growth outlook. The manufacturing process is also complex and as delicate as semiconductors, albeit with lower equipment costs. It's become concentrated with only three players, including Western Digital ( WDC ) (40%), Seagate (40%), and Toshiba (20%). Created by author with data from STX and Bloomberg Created by author with data from STX and Bloomberg Operating Model The data and forecast below are based on consensus estimates. As can be seen, unlike the high price growth per unit seen at MU and SNDK, STX is more of a volume growth story. However, this is based on storage density per hard disk via the HAMR technology , which WDC is also developing. Thus, capacity is increasing without significant capex until 2028, and increased fixed cost. The volume growth is highly ...
Hong Kong authorities have proposed doubling the size of a planned digital technology hub in Lau Fau Shan under the city’s Northern Metropolis megaproject, while landmark buildings would be permitted to reach up to about 250 metres (820 feet) in height under the initiative. The amended proposal, which will be discussed by the Yuen Long District Council’s town planning and development committee on ...
Hong Kong authorities have proposed doubling the size of a planned digital technology hub in Lau Fau Shan under the city’s Northern Metropolis megaproject, while landmark buildings would be permitted to reach up to about 250 metres (820 feet) in height under the initiative. The amended proposal, which will be discussed by the Yuen Long District Council’s town planning and development committee on Thursday, seeks to expand the digital technology hub from 15 to 30 hectares (6.07 to 12.14 acres),...
Roy Keane clears the air with Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes after he misquoted the Portuguese - which led to Fernandes accusing him of lying.
Roy Keane clears the air with Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes after he misquoted the Portuguese - which led to Fernandes accusing him of lying.
Claude Fable 5 是今天 AI 领域的核心热点,这个「神话级」的模型性能表现非常卓越,吸引了无数眼球。 Andrej Karpathy 称其「非常令人兴奋」,是「配得上大版本升级的跃迁式进步」,与去年 11 月 Claude 4.5 带来的提升属于同一级别。SWE-bench Pro 编程基准上,Fable 5 拿到了 80.3% 的得分,超越 Opus 4.8 整整 11 个百分点。...
Claude Fable 5 是今天 AI 领域的核心热点,这个「神话级」的模型性能表现非常卓越,吸引了无数眼球。 Andrej Karpathy 称其「非常令人兴奋」,是「配得上大版本升级的跃迁式进步」,与去年 11 月 Claude 4.5 带来的提升属于同一级别。SWE-bench Pro 编程基准上,Fable 5 拿到了 80.3% 的得分,超越 Opus 4.8 整整 11 个百分点。在一个拥有 5000 万行代码的 Ruby 代码库中,它一天内完成了全库迁移,同等工作量如果交给人类团队,需要两个多月。 然而,打开 X 等社交平台,我们却看到 Claude Fable 5 已在 AI 研究社区激起骂声一片。 原因很简单:如果将 Claude Fable 5 用于研发 AI,它就会降智。 正如其系统卡中明确说明的那样: 我们还针对 前沿 LLM 的开发 增加了相关保障措施。正如我们在 2026 年 2 月《风险报告》第 6.1 节中所讨论的,我们担忧 AI 发展整体步伐加快所带来的风险,尽管对这些风险的严重程度仍不确定。具体而言,正如我们当时所指出的, 我们担心的是「加速其他 AI 开发者构建强大的 AI 系统,这些系统可能带来与我们系统类似的风险,却未必具备相应的保障措施」 。 鉴于近期模型具备加速自身发展的能力, 我们实施了新的干预措施,以限制 Claude 在处理涉及前沿 LLM 开发的请求时的有效性(例如,在构建预训练流程、分布式训练基础设施或机器学习加速器设计等方面 )。使用 Claude 开发竞争性模型已违反我们的服务条款,但通过保障措施强化这一限制,可避免为最可能违反条款的行为者加速进程。 与我们在网络安全、生物学与化学以及蒸馏尝试方面的干预措施不同,这些保障措施对用户不可见。 Fable 5 不会回退到其他模型。相反,保障措施将通过提示修改、引导向量或参数高效微调(PEFT)等方法限制其有效性。 这些干预措施不会影响绝大多数编码工作。我们估计它们将影响约 0.03%的流量,集中在不到 0.1%的组织中。当这些干预措施生效时,我们预计其对模型的行为影响微乎其微,仅会限制其在开发前沿 LLM 方面的有效性。Claude 仍将积极响应用户请求。在此模型发布后,我们将持续改进检测方法的精准度。 来自:https://www-cdn.anthropi...