Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images By Warren Patterson , Head of Commodities Strategy and Ewa Manthey , Commodities Strategist Oil prices received a boost as tensions between the US and Iran resurface. For now, though, the latest escalation isn’t derailing planned talks. Energy: Middle East tensions linger Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after settling 1.55% higher yesterday. Tensions be...
Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images By Warren Patterson , Head of Commodities Strategy and Ewa Manthey , Commodities Strategist Oil prices received a boost as tensions between the US and Iran resurface. For now, though, the latest escalation isn’t derailing planned talks. Energy: Middle East tensions linger Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after settling 1.55% higher yesterday. Tensions between the US and Iran have re-emerged after the US shot down an Iranian drone flying near a US aircraft carrier. In addition, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to seize a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these incidents, President Trump said negotiations are ongoing. The White House also said US-Iran talks are still scheduled for Friday. Uncertainty about how these talks will play out means the market will likely continue to price in some risk premium. It is also worth monitoring developments in Iraq amid growing disagreement between the White House and the Iraqi government. Politicians in Iraq want to appoint Nouri Al-Malaki as the next prime minister. The US administration feels Al-Malaki is too closely aligned with Iran, which has Trump threatening diplomatic and economic consequences. Iraq is the second-largest OPEC producer, pumping a little over 4.1m b/d in December. The oil market got another boost from a bullish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The numbers show that US crude oil inventories fell by 11.1m barrels over the last week, significantly larger than the roughly 640k barrel draw the market was expecting. For refined products, gasoline inventories increased by 4.7m barrels, while distillate fuel oil stocks fell by 4.8m barrels. This reflects the impact of a recent winter storm hitting large parts of the US. It affected energy infrastructure and boosted heating demand. The more widely followed Energy Information Administration (EIA) report will be released later today. If EIA numbers show a simila...
KanawatTH/iStock via Getty Images Key takeaways > 2025 posted the highest deal volumes for infrastructure in history: Overall infrastructure deal volume increased to $1.56tn, up from $1.12tn in 2024 (+39% YoY). Infrastructure debt deal volume increased to $1.05tn, up from $790bn in 2024 (+33% YoY). Prior to 2025, the highest infrastructure deal volume was in 2022 with $1.26tn (overall) and $603bn ...
KanawatTH/iStock via Getty Images Key takeaways > 2025 posted the highest deal volumes for infrastructure in history: Overall infrastructure deal volume increased to $1.56tn, up from $1.12tn in 2024 (+39% YoY). Infrastructure debt deal volume increased to $1.05tn, up from $790bn in 2024 (+33% YoY). Prior to 2025, the highest infrastructure deal volume was in 2022 with $1.26tn (overall) and $603bn (debt). > Infrastructure debt funds represent only 8.1% of infrastructure AUM (as of Q1 2025) which is expected to present abundant opportunities for dedicated credit managers given approximately $322bn of infrastructure equity dry powder remained as of year-end 2025. > The continued public infrastructure funding deficits and high levels of dry powder in private equity indicate continued heightened levels of activity in 2026 for both private infrastructure equity and debt investors. Sector outlook summary Source: Infralogic, Preqin, and Principal Asset Management, January 2026. 2025 observations and 2026 outlook 2025 was a robust year in private infrastructure with $1.56tn in global activity driven by significant activity in the power and digital sectors, noting all major sectors were up YoY. Total global infrastructure debt volumes reached $1.05tn in 2025 with an 80/20 split across bank loans and capital markets (vs. 85/15 split in 2024). Source: Infralogic, January 2026 Investment-grade (IG) opportunities continued to see significant activity while attractive high yield (HY) opportunities continued to expand for institutional investors. Infrastructure debt maintained a strong premium to public comparables while offering spreads of +200-250 bps for IG issuances, +325-400 bps for BB issuances, and +425-650 bps in low BB and single B issuances. Infrastructure equity investment continued to see high volumes; approximately $510bn (33%) of total global volumes. Infrastructure equity deal flow was largest in core and core-plus strategies, while fundraising was most successful in...
Waldemarus/iStock via Getty Images By Nitesh Shah An Unprecedented Spike in Intraday Volatility Friday, January 30, 2026, will likely go down in history as the most volatile day for both gold and silver. When measured by the difference between intraday highs and lows (as a percentage of the intraday high), January 30, 2026, clearly stands out (Figure 1). Admittedly, we do not have reliable intrada...
Waldemarus/iStock via Getty Images By Nitesh Shah An Unprecedented Spike in Intraday Volatility Friday, January 30, 2026, will likely go down in history as the most volatile day for both gold and silver. When measured by the difference between intraday highs and lows (as a percentage of the intraday high), January 30, 2026, clearly stands out (Figure 1). Admittedly, we do not have reliable intraday price data prior to the early 1990s, meaning the Hunt Brothers episode 1 cannot be included in our analysis of intraday volatility. That said, the end-of-day–to–end-of-day decline in silver of 26% on Friday was far larger than any comparable daily price decline observed during the 1980s. Figure 1: Intraday Moves in Gold and Silver Sources: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, Daily data, for the period January 1994 to January 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tarnish, Reputation, and Market Psychology Gold is chemically inert. Silver, on the other hand, is famous for its reaction with compounds in the air, which manifests as a black layer on the metal. In financial markets, gold has traditionally enjoyed a similarly "untarnished" reputation as an antidote to general market volatility. Silver's reputation, by contrast, was famously tarnished during the Hunt Brothers saga. Friday's events have raised concerns that gold itself may have been "tarnished" by its close association with its sister metal. Extreme Price Swings in a Matter of Hours Heading into last week, both gold and silver had already been moving rapidly. Gold reached an intraday high of USD 5,595 per ounce on 29 January 2026, only to retreat below USD 5,200 per ounce later the same day. By 30 January, prices had declined below USD 5,000 per ounce intraday. These are price swings that would typically be expected over the course of a year, not within a single trading day. A Structural Break in Precious Metals We have previously argued that both gold and silver appear to be undergoing a structural break...
hirun/iStock via Getty Images By Liam Flaherty The recent market rotation toward small caps and value has also extended toward sectors, 1 with Technology, which was one of the top-performing sectors of 2025 , turning from a leader into a laggard in January. Meanwhile, cyclical sectors, including Energy and Materials have outperformed. But how challenging have the conditions been for sector allocat...
hirun/iStock via Getty Images By Liam Flaherty The recent market rotation toward small caps and value has also extended toward sectors, 1 with Technology, which was one of the top-performing sectors of 2025 , turning from a leader into a laggard in January. Meanwhile, cyclical sectors, including Energy and Materials have outperformed. But how challenging have the conditions been for sector allocators? Exhibit 1 shows that only three S&P Select Sector Indices 2 outperformed The 500 ® last year, but that that number has broadened considerably since then, with seven sectors outperforming the benchmark in January. Stock-pickers faced a similarly tough environment last year, as just 30% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 ® . 3 A natural question is the degree to which sector trends dictated the success of within-sector stock selection. Exhibit 2 shows that 50% of S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary and 47% of S&P 500 Energy stocks outperformed their respective sector benchmarks, compared to only 22% of S&P 500 Real Estate stocks. More recently, 51% of stocks outperformed their respective sector benchmarks in January, higher than the 36% average seen last year. To analyze the tradeoffs of sector versus stock selection, we turn to dispersion, a measure of cross-sectional volatility and an indicator of opportunities for stock and sector selection. Specifically, we analyze the contribution of cross-sector effects to total market dispersion. 4 The long-term average of 0.22 means that, on average, 22% of the market’s total dispersion was attributable to cross-sector effects. Exhibit 3 shows that the contribution of sectors to S&P 500 dispersion was above average for parts of 2025, particularly during the first half of the year, when tariff-related tensions meant greater rewards for choosing sectors that would succeed during the shifting global political landscape. The importance of sector selection also rose during November, when the impact of resurging fears of an AI bubble varied...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has set his sights on the Middle East to try and diversify energy supplies for Europe’s biggest economy and reduce dependency on LNG imports from the US. Merz and a delegation of corporate leaders will leave Wednesday for Riyadh, where he’s scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , the de facto ruler. On Thursday, he’ll move on to Qatar and United Arab E...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has set his sights on the Middle East to try and diversify energy supplies for Europe’s biggest economy and reduce dependency on LNG imports from the US. Merz and a delegation of corporate leaders will leave Wednesday for Riyadh, where he’s scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , the de facto ruler. On Thursday, he’ll move on to Qatar and United Arab Emirates, before returning to Berlin Friday evening. “High dependency is a problem in view of the authoritarian development of the US government and the risk of geopolitical blackmail,” said Susanne Nies, an energy expert at think tank Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin. Germany “should also consider alternatives such as more pipeline gas from Norway and LNG from Canada or Australia,” she said. Merz’s three-day trip, his first visit to the Gulf region as chancellor, is part of Germany’s strategy to diversify its energy imports globally and find new markets for industrial exports, according to officials in Berlin who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. Besides energy, Merz will also discuss options for closer defense cooperation as well as the tense security situation in the region. However, the visit will be overshadowed by concerns over possible renewed US attacks on Iran, following a brutal crackdown on protesters by the regime in Tehran. Merz’s trip comes more than three years after his predecessor Olaf Scholz traveled to the Gulf states in September 2022 in an effort to secure LNG deals after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The subsequent ban on Russian pipeline gas cut off more than half of Germany’s natural gas imports at the time. Germany has since then boosted purchases from other regions. LNG accounts for about 13% of total imports, with about 94% of LNG imports coming from the US. The Trump administration has used energy as leverage in tariffs negotiations, with Europe last year pledging $750 billion of purchases through 2028. But in view of Trump’s re...
A year ago, Alphabet’s core property, Google Search, looked like it was in trouble. Despite a decade of well-funded research on artificial intelligence, Google was still surprised by the capabilities of ChatGPT when it debuted in November 2022. Google struggled to match AI models coming out of start-ups OpenAI and Anthropic, and web search was changing.
A year ago, Alphabet’s core property, Google Search, looked like it was in trouble. Despite a decade of well-funded research on artificial intelligence, Google was still surprised by the capabilities of ChatGPT when it debuted in November 2022. Google struggled to match AI models coming out of start-ups OpenAI and Anthropic, and web search was changing.
Microsoft could launch the next-generation Xbox console sometime in 2027, AMD CEO Lisa Su has revealed during the semiconductor company’s latest earnings call. Valve is on track to start shipping its AMD-powered Steam Machine early this year, she said, while Microsoft’s development of an Xbox with a semi-custom SOC from AMD is “progressing well to support a launch in 2027.” While it doesn’t necess...
Microsoft could launch the next-generation Xbox console sometime in 2027, AMD CEO Lisa Su has revealed during the semiconductor company’s latest earnings call. Valve is on track to start shipping its AMD-powered Steam Machine early this year, she said, while Microsoft’s development of an Xbox with a semi-custom SOC from AMD is “progressing well to support a launch in 2027.” While it doesn’t necessarily mean Microsoft is releasing a new Xbox console next year, that seems to be the company’s current goal. Xbox president Sarah Bond announced Microsoft’s multi-year partnership with AMD for its consoles in mid-2025. Based on Bond’s statement back then, Microsoft is embracing the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in future Xbox games. She also said that the companies are going to “co-engineer silicon” across devices, “in your living room and in your hands,” implying the development of future handheld consoles. Leaked documents from the FTC vs. Microsoft court battle revealed in the past that Microsoft was planning to make the next Xbox a “hybrid game platform,” which combines local hardware and cloud computing. The documents also said that Microsoft was planning to release the next Xbox in 2028. Whether the company has chosen to launch the new Xbox early remains to be seen, but it is possible when the Xbox X and S were released in 2020, and they haven’t sold as well as the Xbox One.
Seeking Alpha More on Take-Two Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Take-Two Interactive: Too Expensive As Casual Gamers Have Infinite Options Sega Sammy Vs. Take-Two Interactive: When Lower Valuation Meets Higher Expectations Take-Two raises full-year net bookings outlook to $6.7B as mobile and core franchises surge Take-Two shares rise on raised forecast, Q...
Seeking Alpha More on Take-Two Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Take-Two Interactive: Too Expensive As Casual Gamers Have Infinite Options Sega Sammy Vs. Take-Two Interactive: When Lower Valuation Meets Higher Expectations Take-Two raises full-year net bookings outlook to $6.7B as mobile and core franchises surge Take-Two shares rise on raised forecast, Q3 bookings beat
Japan’s S&P Global Services PMI rose to 53.7 in January 2026, surpassing the flash estimate of 53.4 and December’s 51.6, marking a tenth consecutive month of expansion in services activity and the fastest pace since February 2025. Japan’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.1 in January 2026, above the flash estimate of 52.8 and up from 51.1 in December. The Nikkei 225 Index dropped 1.2% to below ...
Japan’s S&P Global Services PMI rose to 53.7 in January 2026, surpassing the flash estimate of 53.4 and December’s 51.6, marking a tenth consecutive month of expansion in services activity and the fastest pace since February 2025. Japan’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.1 in January 2026, above the flash estimate of 52.8 and up from 51.1 in December. The Nikkei 225 Index dropped 1.2% to below 54,100, while the broader Topix Index lost 0.7% to 3,620 on Wednesday . The Japanese yen depreciated past 156 per dollar on Wednesday, sliding for the fourth straight session to a near two-week low ahead of this weekend’s snap lower house election. Meanwhile, an auction of Japan’s 10-year bonds this week showed softer demand on election jitters. More on Japan's economy: The Yen Carry Trade: Fears Are Blown Out Of Proportion When Bonds Break Equities: Japan's Debt, America's Refinancing Wall And Why Gold Becomes The Only Rational Hedge DXJ: Long Japanese Exporters Japan and South Korea lead Asian turnaround after Wall Street rebound; markets brace for megacap tech results Asian stocks sink as the Warsh nomination and divergent China data sour tech sentiment
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis This is my third article about Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) in the last six months, and after carefully analyzing the Q4 financial results and updating the DCF model, I decided to keep the Hold rating. Initially, at the end of July , I recommended buying the shares, as they seemed undervalued to me at that time and with strong growth driver...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis This is my third article about Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) in the last six months, and after carefully analyzing the Q4 financial results and updating the DCF model, I decided to keep the Hold rating. Initially, at the end of July , I recommended buying the shares, as they seemed undervalued to me at that time and with strong growth drivers due to high demand for copper, a shortage of new copper mining projects, and high business profitability. Then, at the end of October , I changed it to Buy to Hold, because I didn't see the point in buying more. As a result, if an investor bought shares with me at the end of July and held them until today, then in six months he earned 37.20%, while the S&P 500 grew by only 8% over the same period. To date, I don't see any reason to sell shares from the portfolio, but at the same time, I don't see an underestimation in the current share price. Therefore, the Hold rating is optimal. According to my calculations, the fair value of the shares is $63, which gives a limited upside of 4.5%. Therefore, I think it is better to wait for a correction in the stock price and buy them at $55 and below, if such an opportunity arises. Until production at Grasberg is fully restored, the company will not be able to fully experience the increase in metal prices in its financial results. In addition, after the recent correction in the prices of metals (gold, silver), investors are likely to be able to get a chance to buy stocks cheaper. Q4 Relief Doesn’t Offset Structural Headwinds The year 2025 turned out to be a difficult one for Freeport-McMoRan, even despite the favorable market conditions. The company's business was soured by the September accident at the largest Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a rock collapse. The company had to suspend production in this area, and in order for financial results not to slip, the company significantly increased production at mines in the United States...