peshkov/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier We are now officially entering the fifth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which sent bombs flying all over the Middle East, but more concerningly, sent global assets flying all over. The main culprit was crude oil prices – rallying about 50% since its monthly open, the commodity hasn't failed to contribute its fair part in overall volatility. Aft...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier We are now officially entering the fifth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which sent bombs flying all over the Middle East, but more concerningly, sent global assets flying all over. The main culprit was crude oil prices – rallying about 50% since its monthly open, the commodity hasn't failed to contribute its fair part in overall volatility. After sustaining a broad, inverted correlation with most asset classes and currencies, this trend appears to be abating. Traders are now really looking to relax their preceding angst with the US entering into more consistent negotiations with their enemy-counterpart in the Islamic regime, and Israel also prepares for final waves of attack to dampen the military reconstruction efforts. Black Gold is now at a spot where uncertainty is priced in, leaving only a premium for the proper lack of supply that would traditionally go through the infamous Strait of Hormuz. Brent has been stuck above $110 since the weekly open, and WTI remains well above $100. WTI 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 30, 2026 Key levels to watch for WTI: To the upside: $106 - Closing above could maintain further bullish pressure $110 - Psychological level not seen since the mid-March spike $120 - War highs; above this, things could get catastrophic for the economy To the downside: $100 - Correcting back below would boost the current ease in sentiment significantly $90 - Short-term momentum turns bearish for the commodity. Markets should pick up their rebound $85 - Any move below this would confirm that the situation is indeed not worsening, the best sign for markets. Every asset becomes a buy on a daily close below. Oil rising isn't such a surprise to most of us, but the more peculiar change in today's flows comes from the fact that despite this rise, bonds are rallying (yields are lower - implying lower inflation expectations), stocks bounced but seem to remain under pressure (at least, not worsening for...