Hurstpierpoint, West Sussex: Look out for the alders – they’re remarkable trees and one of our first to come to life as winter recedes A few wet weeks have left the ground here sodden, making walking a challenge. It doesn’t help that my wellies have sprung a leak. On the rainiest days, I find my range reduced to a few splashy circuits of the village fields, the nearby Downs receding into hanging c...
Hurstpierpoint, West Sussex: Look out for the alders – they’re remarkable trees and one of our first to come to life as winter recedes A few wet weeks have left the ground here sodden, making walking a challenge. It doesn’t help that my wellies have sprung a leak. On the rainiest days, I find my range reduced to a few splashy circuits of the village fields, the nearby Downs receding into hanging cloud. Nevertheless, there are signs of drier times to come. Today, my eye is drawn by a line of alders ( Alnus glutinosa ) that marks the course of a stream. Their graceful silhouettes are bathed in a distinctive maroon haze. Up close, the cause resolves into delicate clarity: purple catkins dangling in bunches from the tip of each twig. Formed at the end of last summer, they have recently begun to lengthen and unclench, coaxed by warming days. Soon (and well before the tree’s round leaves unfurl), they will split open, revealing hundreds of vivid yellow stamens: tiny, lantern guides through the murk and mire of late winter. Continue reading...
Maks_Lab/iStock via Getty Images By Jennifer Nash The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) jumped to its highest level in over two years in January, rising 11.3 points to 54.0. This reading came in above the projected 43.5 and marks the first month regional business activity has expanded since the end of 2023. Background on Chicago PMI The Chicago PMI assesses the busine...
Maks_Lab/iStock via Getty Images By Jennifer Nash The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) jumped to its highest level in over two years in January, rising 11.3 points to 54.0. This reading came in above the projected 43.5 and marks the first month regional business activity has expanded since the end of 2023. Background on Chicago PMI The Chicago PMI assesses the business conditions and the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. A value above 50.0 indicates expanding manufacturing activity, while a value below 50.0 indicates contracting manufacturing activity. Weak readings have often preceded broader economic downturns. Looking at the index's historical performance, the current level of 54.0 is lower than where the index stood at the start of 2 of the 7 recessions since its inception. A Closer Look Since 2000 Examining data since 2000, the index has undergone fluctuations, often aligning with broader economic cycles. Given its persistent weakness, the current level reinforces concerns about ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector. Chicago PMI vs. ISM Manufacturing Index Let's compare the Chicago PMI with the more popular national ISM manufacturing index. Over the 673 months of available data, the Chicago PMI has been higher 68% of the time. However, despite this frequent outperformance, its historical average of 54.2 is only slightly higher than the ISM’s 52.4. It's clear the two indices tend to move together; however, it’s important to note that the ISM Manufacturing Index is reported with a one-month lag. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Getty Images Originally published on January 28, 2026 By Carsten Brzeski , Global Head of Macro | Julian Geib , Junior Economist, Global Trade The EU is chasing autonomy one deal at a time Just two weeks after the Mercosur deal was finally signed , following more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU concluded another major trade agreement nearly two decades in the making. During a brief visit to ...
Getty Images Originally published on January 28, 2026 By Carsten Brzeski , Global Head of Macro | Julian Geib , Junior Economist, Global Trade The EU is chasing autonomy one deal at a time Just two weeks after the Mercosur deal was finally signed , following more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU concluded another major trade agreement nearly two decades in the making. During a brief visit to India, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen finalised negotiations for the “mother of all deals,” as she nicknamed the EU-India free trade agreement. The EU, the third-largest internal market (after China and India), has now entered a trade agreement with one of the world’s largest economies, with more than 1.4 billion people and a GDP of approximately €3.4 trillion. Currently, India is the EU's ninth-largest trading partner by total trade in goods. Trade imbalance: a gap the EU hopes to narrow EU trade with India in € billion; *2025 projection Source: Eurostat, ING Research According to the European Commission, this deal would double the value of EU goods exported to India by 2032 by eliminating or reducing tariffs on 96.6% of exports. Overall, tariff reductions will save around €4bn in duties on European products each year. While EU exports increased until 2023, momentum has since flattened. However, the EU imports far more from India than it exports, accounting for more than 17% of India’s total exports. Fast-paced agreement with broader scope The EU will be granted much larger tariff reductions than any other trading partner. Tariffs on cars will gradually decrease from 110% to 10% over the next five years. Levies on car parts will be eliminated within five to 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, which can reach 44%, will be mostly eliminated; exact reduction schedules have yet to be clarified. The EU will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India within seven years. The agreement will include additional d...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Private lending has been the talk of the town over the past several years. In the post pandemic era, money moved fast and private credit took center stage as the hot new source of capital for companies of all shapes and sizes. When people think of private credit, they typically think junk bonds, sponsored companies, or distressed investments. In the era of ...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Private lending has been the talk of the town over the past several years. In the post pandemic era, money moved fast and private credit took center stage as the hot new source of capital for companies of all shapes and sizes. When people think of private credit, they typically think junk bonds, sponsored companies, or distressed investments. In the era of modern specialized finance, it’s not so simple. Perhaps the best example is the recent deal between Meta Platforms ( META ), Blue Owl ( OWL ), and PIMCO to finance the construction of the infamous Hyperion facility. As the private lending segment continues to develop into a trillion dollar business, cracks are beginning to show. Recently, I published an article talking about systemic issues that are hitting business development companies and securitized credit. Today, we will dive back into Ares Capital Corporation ( ARCC ), the largest business development company. As a flurry of concerns begin to threaten to continued success of business development companies, a lot rides on the largest market participant. Beyond being a fan favorite, ARCC accounts for large portions of BDC funds like the VanEck BDC Income ETF ( BIZD ), the largest BDC ETF. ARCC is the largest holding and accounts for 15% of the fund’s assets. It’s time to follow up on recent coverage and talk about a new era for BDCs. Review of Prior Coverage Nearly one year ago, I published an article covering ARCC. In the article, I took a dive into the fund’s business model and manager. We talked about the wide diversification across borrowers and industries as well as how ARCC leverages the broader Ares Management ( ARES ) platform. The fund has historically outperformed the sector by a material margin. Data by YCharts In the article, I covered the fund’s Q4 and fiscal year-end earnings report. Perhaps the highlight of the earnings release was the announcement that the long term CEO was stepping down. This set the st...
There was no mayday call from the commercial fishing vessel Lily Jean as it navigated the frigid Atlantic Ocean on Friday morning on its way home to Gloucester, Massachusetts, America ’s oldest fishing port. The US Coast Guard was notified by the boat’s beacon that alerts when it hits the water. When rescuers arrived they found one person dead, floating in the water, along with a debris field and ...
There was no mayday call from the commercial fishing vessel Lily Jean as it navigated the frigid Atlantic Ocean on Friday morning on its way home to Gloucester, Massachusetts, America ’s oldest fishing port. The US Coast Guard was notified by the boat’s beacon that alerts when it hits the water. When rescuers arrived they found one person dead, floating in the water, along with a debris field and an empty lifeboat. Six people remain missing. The fate of the Lily Jean, a 22-metre (72-foot) fishing vessel owned by a beloved member of Gloucester’s historic fishing community, is the latest maritime tragedy to befall America’s oldest seaport. Advertisement The city that inspired The Perfect Storm is tied to its fishing heritage in a way that has brought 400 years of history and, sometimes, tragedy. That book and movie were inspired by the Andrea Gail, which went missing at sea in 1991. “We will continue to search throughout the night,” said Coast Guard Commander Timothy Jones, who is coordinating the search and rescue. He noted that the sea spray was freezing on vessels and caused a serious danger to both the missing fishing boat and rescuers. Flowers are placed at the Gloucester Fisherman’s Memorial in Gloucester, Massachusetts, after a fishing boat from the port city went missing on Friday. Photo: AP The Lily Jean, its captain, Gus Sanfilippo, and his crew were featured in a 2012 episode of the History Channel show Nor’Easter Men.
Sumedha Lakmal/iStock via Getty Images The fourth quarter was another challenging quarter. We continued to underperform our benchmark, the Russell 2000, closing out an extremely disappointing 2025. The bull market in small caps continued, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.2%, while the Madison Small Cap Fund (Class I) was down 0.4%. The Russell 2500 ended the quarter up 2.2%. Unlike previous quar...
Sumedha Lakmal/iStock via Getty Images The fourth quarter was another challenging quarter. We continued to underperform our benchmark, the Russell 2000, closing out an extremely disappointing 2025. The bull market in small caps continued, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.2%, while the Madison Small Cap Fund (Class I) was down 0.4%. The Russell 2500 ended the quarter up 2.2%. Unlike previous quarters, sector allocation hurt performance much more than stock selection. From a sector perspective, Healthcare was the worst performing sector, driven by poor performance from our largest investment position, Encompass Health Care ( EHC ). Although the fundamentals for EHC are steady, EHC is both a defensive business and a defensive stock in a market that wants offense, a theme we'll discuss later in depth. Our best performing sector was Information Technology, driven by very strong stock selection, specifically stocks driven by the AI capital spending boom like Ciena ( CIEN ) and the takeover of Confluent ( CFLT ) by IBM ( IBM ) for a 35% premium. It was another strong year for the Russell 2000, up 12.8%, although small caps continued their underperformance versus large caps, with the S&P 500 up nearly 18% for 2025. After a banner year in 2024, we underperformed our benchmark significantly in 2025. We are deeply disappointed by these results. Let's recap and analyze what happened. The year began in turmoil, with threats to severely cut government spending via DOGE. Stocks exposed to government spending (ex defense) took a beating, particularly areas exposed to research in life sciences. The uncertainty around the impact of these cuts led to a broader selloff, with the Russell 2000 declining 9.8% and the Fund outperforming, but only slightly. Things took a turn for the worse when the Trump administration began formulating plans for a new tariff regime, culminating in the draconian "Liberation Day" headline Tariff rates, which were more punitive than expected. The market plu...
DHS keeps making false claims about people. It's part of a broader pattern toggle caption Al Drago/Getty Images On a Saturday in early October, Marimar Martinez, a 30-year-old teacher and American citizen, was driving her car when she noticed federal immigration agents in her Chicago neighborhood. She began following them, as did the driver of another car. She honked her horn and shouted "la migra...
DHS keeps making false claims about people. It's part of a broader pattern toggle caption Al Drago/Getty Images On a Saturday in early October, Marimar Martinez, a 30-year-old teacher and American citizen, was driving her car when she noticed federal immigration agents in her Chicago neighborhood. She began following them, as did the driver of another car. She honked her horn and shouted "la migra" to warn her neighbors that immigration agents were nearby. As she drove alongside a Chevy Tahoe driven by Border Patrol agents, the vehicles made contact — who swerved into whom is a point of dispute. Martinez then began to drive away. A Border Patrol agent fired at her five times. Sponsor Message The Department of Homeland Security quickly alleged Martinez had "rammed" the Border Patrol vehicle. "This woman — who, by the way, is a Montessori school teacher with no criminal history — she's now, all of a sudden, a 'domestic terrorist,'" her attorney, Chris Parente, told NPR. "This is before there's any investigation done." toggle caption E. Jason Wambsgans/Chicago Tribune/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Federal prosecutors dropped all charges against Martinez, who survived the shooting. But a Department of Homeland Security press release with her name, mug shot and the accusation that she is a "domestic terrorist" is still online, as are a number of posts on X by high level Trump administration officials that paint her as a criminal who attacked law enforcement. One post with allegations about her was reshared by FBI Director Kash Patel and inaccurately links to video footage from a different incident she had nothing to do with. In recent weeks, the Trump administration swiftly attempted to justify the shootings of Renee Macklin Good and Alex Pretti by claiming they were carrying out acts of domestic terrorism in the moments before they were killed. They made these claims without waiting for investigations to unfold, and in spite of conflicting video evidence and witness accou...
Hong Kong must maintain cash reserves to cope with geopolitical shocks and support long-term growth, even with a surplus expected in the government’s operating account this year, the financial secretary has said. Paul Chan Mo-po also said on Saturday that the city’s economy outperformed forecasts last year, lifted by strong exports to Southeast Asia and a booming financial market. On Friday, the g...
Hong Kong must maintain cash reserves to cope with geopolitical shocks and support long-term growth, even with a surplus expected in the government’s operating account this year, the financial secretary has said. Paul Chan Mo-po also said on Saturday that the city’s economy outperformed forecasts last year, lifted by strong exports to Southeast Asia and a booming financial market. On Friday, the government announced a surplus of HK$43.9 billion (US$5.6 billion) in its operating account, which manages the daily public expenditure, for the nine months ended December 31. Advertisement But it cautioned that revenue would taper off after January, with expenditure significantly exceeding income from February to March. While expressing understanding of different residents’ wishes for more financial incentives, Chan, who will deliver his budget speech in February, said authorities must manage their accounts cautiously. Advertisement “We should balance our current needs and middle- to long-term development, such as infrastructure construction in the Northern Metropolis,” he told a radio show, referring to the government megaproject to turn 30,000 hectares of land bordering mainland China into a technology and residential hub.
屯門先後兩縱火案11車遭焚毀 兩非華裔男被捕 To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video 【有線新聞】屯門和田邨及寶塘下村多輛車懷疑遭人縱火燒毀，兩名分別25及26歲非華裔男子被捕。 警方展示被補人犯案時所穿的衣服及物品，...
屯門先後兩縱火案11車遭焚毀 兩非華裔男被捕 To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video 【有線新聞】屯門和田邨及寶塘下村多輛車懷疑遭人縱火燒毀，兩名分別25及26歲非華裔男子被捕。 警方展示被補人犯案時所穿的衣服及物品，如打火機，以及被毀壞閉路電視鏡頭等證物，兩人報稱無業，其中一人持香港身份證，涉嫌縱火及刑事毀壞被捕。星期五清晨，和田邨彩和樓外一輛電單車及三輛單車突然起火，約一小時後，附近塘亨路寶塘下村一個露天停車場，七輛汽車起火。消防認為兩宗火警有可疑，交警方調查。
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Micron Technology (NasdaqGS:MU) announced a $24 billion investment in a new advanced wafer fabrication facility in Singapore. The expansion includes increased high bandwidth memory (HBM) manufacturing capacity to support AI and data centric demand. The proje...
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Micron Technology (NasdaqGS:MU) announced a $24 billion investment in a new advanced wafer fabrication facility in Singapore. The expansion includes increased high bandwidth memory (HBM) manufacturing capacity to support AI and data centric demand. The project is expected to add thousands of high skilled roles, deepen R&D ties in Singapore, and reinforce Micron's sustainability efforts. For investors watching Micron at a share price of $414.88, this move reflects a major step in how the company is positioning itself in AI focused memory and storage. The stock has seen very strong multi year gains, with a very large one year return and around 7x over three years, plus a 31.5% return year to date and 45.4% over the past month. This Singapore build out could matter for how Micron balances capacity, technology development, and customer mix in AI infrastructure and data centric markets. If you follow NasdaqGS:MU, this is the kind of long term capital commitment that can reshape where and how the company operates globally. Stay updated on the most important news stories for Micron Technology by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Micron Technology. NasdaqGS:MU Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Jan 2026 How Micron Technology stacks up against its biggest competitors Micron’s planned US$24b Singapore facility is a long-term capacity and technology bet on AI-driven demand for NAND storage and high-bandwidth memory, with cleanroom space and output timing aligned to support data-center and HBM packaging ramps in 2027 and 2028. Co-locating R&D and manufacturing in a single NAND Center of Excellence should help Micron tune product design, yields and time-to-market as it competes with Samsung and SK Hynix for AI server sockets. How this fits the Micron Technology AI-me...
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Micron Technology (NasdaqGS:MU) announced a $24 billion investment in a new advanced wafer fabrication facility in Singapore. The expansion includes increased high bandwidth memory (HBM) manufacturing capacity to support AI and data centric demand. The proje...
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Micron Technology (NasdaqGS:MU) announced a $24 billion investment in a new advanced wafer fabrication facility in Singapore. The expansion includes increased high bandwidth memory (HBM) manufacturing capacity to support AI and data centric demand. The project is expected to add thousands of high skilled roles, deepen R&D ties in Singapore, and reinforce Micron's sustainability efforts. For investors watching Micron at a share price of $414.88, this move reflects a major step in how the company is positioning itself in AI focused memory and storage. The stock has seen very strong multi year gains, with a very large one year return and around 7x over three years, plus a 31.5% return year to date and 45.4% over the past month. This Singapore build out could matter for how Micron balances capacity, technology development, and customer mix in AI infrastructure and data centric markets. If you follow NasdaqGS:MU, this is the kind of long term capital commitment that can reshape where and how the company operates globally. Stay updated on the most important news stories for Micron Technology by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Micron Technology. NasdaqGS:MU Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Jan 2026 How Micron Technology stacks up against its biggest competitors Micron’s planned US$24b Singapore facility is a long-term capacity and technology bet on AI-driven demand for NAND storage and high-bandwidth memory, with cleanroom space and output timing aligned to support data-center and HBM packaging ramps in 2027 and 2028. Co-locating R&D and manufacturing in a single NAND Center of Excellence should help Micron tune product design, yields and time-to-market as it competes with Samsung and SK Hynix for AI server sockets. How this fits the Micron Technology AI-me...
It is the second such government shutdown in the past year and comes just 11 weeks after the end of the previous funding impasse which lasted 43 days, the longest in US history.
It is the second such government shutdown in the past year and comes just 11 weeks after the end of the previous funding impasse which lasted 43 days, the longest in US history.
China’s factory activity faltered in January as weak domestic demand dragged down production at the start of the new year, an official survey showed on Saturday. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in January, from 50.1 in December, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. It missed a forecast of 50 in a Reuters poll of analysts. Sub-indexes of new orders an...
China’s factory activity faltered in January as weak domestic demand dragged down production at the start of the new year, an official survey showed on Saturday. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in January, from 50.1 in December, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. It missed a forecast of 50 in a Reuters poll of analysts. Sub-indexes of new orders and new export orders also saw declines, respectively, down to 49.2 from 50.8 in December and 47.8 from 49.0 in December. Advertisement The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, dropped to 49.4 from 50.2 in December, falling to its lowest since December 2022. A statistician with the National Bureau of Statistics , Huo Lihui, said in a note that some types of manufacturers traditionally enter a slow period in January and market demand remains weak. Advertisement
JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images AMZN stock: FQ4 earnings scheduled on Feb 5 I last covered Amazon.com, Inc. ( AMZN ) on Dec 22 with an article titled "Amazon: Why Strong Money Holds At $220”. The article was promoted by the position changes disclosed by professional fund managers and rated AMZN as a hold. Since then, there have been a few new catalysts evolving around AMZN stock both ...
JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images AMZN stock: FQ4 earnings scheduled on Feb 5 I last covered Amazon.com, Inc. ( AMZN ) on Dec 22 with an article titled "Amazon: Why Strong Money Holds At $220”. The article was promoted by the position changes disclosed by professional fund managers and rated AMZN as a hold. Since then, there have been a few new catalysts evolving around AMZN stock both in terms of macroeconomics and also company specifics. The rest of this follow-up article will focus on the top one change in each category as I see: the continued tariff uncertainties and also AMZN’s upcoming FQ4 earnings report (ER) scheduled on Feb 5, 2026. These developments, when combined, have led me to see heightened risks for Amazon’s inventory and margin in the near term caused by the so-called bullwhip effect. These are also the two areas that I would pay special attention to during the upcoming earnings call. Considering these risks and the stock’s elevated P/E ratios, I keep seeing a neutral return/risk ratio and thus reiterate my hold rating. For readers unfamiliar with the bullwhip effect, it describes the tendency of businesses to overestimate the amount of inventory they will need. The overestimation could be due to a variety of reasons, such as fear of lost sales, overestimation of demand, and concern about supply disruptions. All are quite relevant for AMZN’s Q4 performance in my assessment, given the overlapping of the holiday season shopping season with Q4 and the ongoing tariff uncertainties. Next, I will present some of the primary signs that Amazon could have been suffering from a bullwhip effect in the past quarter. AMZN stock and the bullwhip effects To start, in the past quarter, Amazon has reported a noticeable increase in its inventory levels. For growth-oriented stocks like AMZN, I encourage investors to give their inventory data as much consideration as other profit metrics, following these insights from Peter Lynch : To start, unlike many othe...