The oil market ( CL1:COM ), ( CO1:COM ) has stopped responding to the White House’s verbal assurances about resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis and now sees only three realistic paths to halting the surge in crude prices, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. Those are a ceasefire, U.S. military force to reopen the strait, or a recession, he said. “The market’s starting to...
The oil market ( CL1:COM ), ( CO1:COM ) has stopped responding to the White House’s verbal assurances about resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis and now sees only three realistic paths to halting the surge in crude prices, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. Those are a ceasefire, U.S. military force to reopen the strait, or a recession, he said. “The market’s starting to say, show me the barrels,” McNally said in an interview with CNBC. “I want to see ships going through Hormuz. I want to see a ceasefire.” McNally noted that U.S. President Trump had been successful at “verbally intervening to dampen crude oil prices” by promising a quick resolution to the crisis, but traders are no longer buying the reassurances. The analyst explained that for six or seven years, the smart money had been to “lean against an oil price spike due to geopolitical disruption risk,” but that playbook has stopped working as the Hormuz shutdown drags on. Of the three scenarios, McNally said a negotiated ceasefire remains the most likely outcome, though not in the near term. He suggested both the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached “the apex of the cost-benefit curve” that would push them toward a settlement. “We’re going to have a ceasefire at some point,” he said, adding that the timing remains uncertain. The second scenario involves U.S. military action to forcibly degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the strait. McNally put the probability of this occurring in the coming days to weeks at 70%, but warned it carries significant escalation risks. If the U.S. puts boots on the ground on strategic islands, Iran could retaliate by attacking “major critical energy infrastructure,” he said, noting “that could extend the disruption.” If neither diplomacy nor military action succeeds, McNally predicted a “sad scenario” in which prices continue climbing until they trigger or heavily contribute to a recession. “That’s often the way oil price spikes have ended in h...
If you follow the ongoing debate over AI's growing economic impact, you may have seen the graphic below floating around this month. It comes from an Anthropic report on the labor market impacts of AI and is meant to compare the current "observed exposure" of occupations to LLMs (in red) to the "theoretical capability" of those same LLMs (in blue) across 22 job categories. While the current "observ...
If you follow the ongoing debate over AI's growing economic impact, you may have seen the graphic below floating around this month. It comes from an Anthropic report on the labor market impacts of AI and is meant to compare the current "observed exposure" of occupations to LLMs (in red) to the "theoretical capability" of those same LLMs (in blue) across 22 job categories. While the current "observed exposure" area is interesting in its own right, it's the blue "theoretical capability" that jumps out. At a glance, the graph implies that LLM-based systems could perform at least 80 percent of the individual "job tasks" across a shockingly wide range of human occupations, at least theoretically. It looks like Anthropic is predicting that LLMs will eventually be able to do the vast majority of jobs in broad categories ranging from "Arts & Media" and "Office & Admin" to "Legal, Business & Finance," and even "Management." That "theoretical AI coverage" area seems like it's destined to eat a huge swath of the US job market! Credit: Anthropic Digging into the basis for those "theoretical capability" numbers, though, provides a much less chilling image of AI's future occupational impacts. When you drill down into the specifics, that blue field represents some outdated and heavily speculative educated guesses about where AI is likely to improve human productivity and not necessarily where it will take over for humans altogether. Read full article Comments
This morning a "Potential Dividend Run Alert" went out for Brc Group Holdings Inc - 5.25% Senior Notes Due (NASD: RILYZ), at our DividendChannel.com Dividend Alerts service (a free email alerts feature). Let's look at the situation in greater detail, shall we? First of all, wha
This morning a "Potential Dividend Run Alert" went out for Brc Group Holdings Inc - 5.25% Senior Notes Due (NASD: RILYZ), at our DividendChannel.com Dividend Alerts service (a free email alerts feature). Let's look at the situation in greater detail, shall we? First of all, wha
In this article ULVR-GB MKC WMT NES.N-CH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT On any given day, 2.5 billion people use Unilever products that span 400 brands. That success has created a huge target on the company's back as the sustainability movement gains more traction with consumers shunning plastic pollution. Sajjad Hussain | AFP | Getty Images Unilever's plan to merge its food busin...
In this article ULVR-GB MKC WMT NES.N-CH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT On any given day, 2.5 billion people use Unilever products that span 400 brands. That success has created a huge target on the company's back as the sustainability movement gains more traction with consumers shunning plastic pollution. Sajjad Hussain | AFP | Getty Images Unilever's plan to merge its food business with spice maker McCormick is the latest move in a sector that's fighting to stay relevant as the growth model that has powered big consumer products companies for decades is eroding. As the post-pandemic pricing supercycle fades and growth in massive markets like China stalls, the industry's titans are moving away from the bigger-is-better conglomerate model, and towards what experts call "targeted scale." The tie-up between Unilever and McCormick highlights a shift in strategy among consumer goods companies that prioritizes dominating specific categories rather than simply amassing a diverse portfolio of unrelated brands. "The rules have changed — and many big [consumer products] companies are facing a relentless drift toward irrelevance," wrote Ernst & Young in its State of Consumer Products Report last year. Size now matters less, and success will be determined by relevance to consumers and capital markets, according to the consultancy firm. Unilever said Tuesday it is selling most of its food business , which includes the Hellmann's mayo and Marmite brands, to Cholula hot sauce owner U.S.-based McCormick for $15.7 billion. Doubling down The logic behind recent industry moves is simple: companies are shedding lower-margin, high-complexity units to double down on "power categories." In Unilever's case, that means pivoting toward its high-growth health and beauty care, which includes major labels Dove, Dermalogica, and TRESemmé. The British company also spun off its ice cream business last year , creating the world's largest standalone ice cream company Magnum . watch...
Charnchai/iStock via Getty Images The State Street SPDR S&P Insurance ETF ( KIE ) has some features that actually put it into a decent position in the current environment, where investors are beginning to consider the possibility that hikes may be coming down the pipe as opposed to cuts. This is reflected clearly in the yield curve, which sees rates just going up with time. The plays in this envir...
Charnchai/iStock via Getty Images The State Street SPDR S&P Insurance ETF ( KIE ) has some features that actually put it into a decent position in the current environment, where investors are beginning to consider the possibility that hikes may be coming down the pipe as opposed to cuts. This is reflected clearly in the yield curve, which sees rates just going up with time. The plays in this environment are running, productive operations that have offsets to higher costs of capital—that means insurance, which has reserve portfolios that benefit from higher rates. At 10x PE, there is a decent earnings yield with companies perfectly capable of secularly growing earnings. Moreover, the KIE has a lower expense ratio than alternative insurance ETFs in the US market, like the ( IAK ), at 0.35% compared to 0.38% . With higher costs of capital not being that much of a problem for insurance, we'd be overweight if not in cash. KIE Breakdown KIE has just over 50 holdings and is focused primarily on the P&C market. But more than three-quarters of the portfolio is exposed to reserve-rich insurance companies. Their reserve portfolios roll over at prevailing short-term rates. Bull Case The bull case for insurance is the following, given the macroeconomic context: Insurance companies hold reserve portfolios to cover possible claims. While higher costs of capital mean harsher discounting of free cash flows, higher capital costs also mean higher returns on primarily short-term reserve portfolios focused on fixed-income instruments. Rollovers mean spot rates matter quite a bit and help offset more intense discounting with more yield on the portfolios. Therefore, insurance doesn't really suffer as the rest of the market does from higher costs of capital. The reason why this matters right now is that the yield curve is clearly shifting up across the board. But in the immediate term, it's clear that markets don't see further cuts as particularly likely this year due to the reinflation co...
The US-Israel war on Iran has crippled exports of fertiliser from the Persian Gulf, raising the spectre of higher food prices if the conflict drags on. The disruption could hand China – the world’s largest fertiliser producer – greater political leverage over countries already locked in disputes with Beijing, though it is unlikely to weaponise exports, according to analysts. Global fertiliser pric...
The US-Israel war on Iran has crippled exports of fertiliser from the Persian Gulf, raising the spectre of higher food prices if the conflict drags on. The disruption could hand China – the world’s largest fertiliser producer – greater political leverage over countries already locked in disputes with Beijing, though it is unlikely to weaponise exports, according to analysts. Global fertiliser prices have soared since Iran effectively blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which...
For some, it’s a meat thermometer or a knife, for others a roasting tin, a reliable peeler or, yes, a teapot (gravy, anyone?). Let the cooking perfection begin Crispy roast potatoes, golden yorkshire puddings and perfectly cooked meat (or a vegetarian centrepiece) – there’s nothing like a good roast dinner. But making a roast can be quite a balancing act in the kitchen. There’s a fine art to juggl...
For some, it’s a meat thermometer or a knife, for others a roasting tin, a reliable peeler or, yes, a teapot (gravy, anyone?). Let the cooking perfection begin Crispy roast potatoes, golden yorkshire puddings and perfectly cooked meat (or a vegetarian centrepiece) – there’s nothing like a good roast dinner. But making a roast can be quite a balancing act in the kitchen. There’s a fine art to juggling all the elements: you want to make sure nothing is over- or under-cooked, and that everything is still warm when you come to serve it. To refine your techniques and help you feel like a pro in the kitchen, we asked top chefs from around the UK about the cooking equipment they rely on to make the perfect roast. Featuring life-changing peelers, roasting tins that make the crispiest potatoes and a temperature probe to help you cook to perfection, these are their recommendations. Continue reading...
Claims of benefits have been amplified by the US health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr. How does the evidence actually stack up? Read more in the Antiviral series Influencers are telling their audiences that injectable peptides are the “glow up potion” they need for everything from clearing up hormonal acne, thickening hair, relieving back pain and even treating chronic UTIs. These peptides, inten...
Claims of benefits have been amplified by the US health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr. How does the evidence actually stack up? Read more in the Antiviral series Influencers are telling their audiences that injectable peptides are the “glow up potion” they need for everything from clearing up hormonal acne, thickening hair, relieving back pain and even treating chronic UTIs. These peptides, intended for research purposes (as some influencers do point out) and not approved for human use , are being increasingly sold through unregulated online channels. Continue reading...
The merger is a sign that the fitness industry is continuing to move toward consolidation to compete at a larger scale. Recent moves include MyFitnessPal acquiring Cal AI, an AI calorie counting app, and Strava buying two apps: cycling app The Breakaway and running app Runna.
The merger is a sign that the fitness industry is continuing to move toward consolidation to compete at a larger scale. Recent moves include MyFitnessPal acquiring Cal AI, an AI calorie counting app, and Strava buying two apps: cycling app The Breakaway and running app Runna.