FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images Thesis PepGen Inc. ( PEPG ) shares dropped pretty sharply yesterday. In market hours today, shares are down about 65% so far, which would make it one of the biggest stock movers . The bad news was the Phase 2 update , and whilst I don’t think it was as bad as the market reaction would imply, investors clearly focused on the lack of meaningful functional improvement. S...
FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images Thesis PepGen Inc. ( PEPG ) shares dropped pretty sharply yesterday. In market hours today, shares are down about 65% so far, which would make it one of the biggest stock movers . The bad news was the Phase 2 update , and whilst I don’t think it was as bad as the market reaction would imply, investors clearly focused on the lack of meaningful functional improvement. So no gains in handgrip strength or walking tests, even though we saw a pretty clean safety profile. We have to keep in mind that the data showed biological activity and target engagement, but the overall readout was really viewed as mixed and not yet clinically compelling. This is somewhat fair, but it was only at the low 5 mg/kg dose. So in that sense, the selloff may be a bit overdone. There are signs of a dose-response relationship, as I’ll explain, and some may see some optimism that higher doses, like the upcoming 10 mg/kg cohort, could give us stronger, more meaningful efficacy. However, going forward, there is now a lot more risk embedded in that upcoming 10 mg/kg route, and if we see a similar result to the one this week, we can expect more downside. Which is why I think it is best to hold off before jumping in at this very low $1.50 share price. PGN-EDODM1 Background So the bad news we got yesterday was surrounding PepGen’s investigational therapy, PGN-EDODM1 . Just for a brief bit of background, the treatment is essentially designed for patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). This is a genetic neuromuscular disorder in which we usually see expanded CUG repeats in the DMPK gene. And unfortunately, those abnormal RNA repeats trap an important protein called MBNL1, which is needed for correct RNA splicing across many genes. So when MBNL1 is sequestered in an abnormal segment, the result is widespread mis-splicing, which, as you can imagine, causes all sorts of problems. It typically leads to muscle weakness, myotonia, and systemic symptoms. PepGen Inc. Now, PG...
Diamondback Energy (FANG) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Diamondback Energy (FANG) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Vermilion Energy (VET) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Vermilion Energy (VET) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
Treasury Unveils Whistleblower Portal To Combat Transnational Medicare, Medicaid Fraud Rings Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Whistleblowers are encouraged to report abuse of Medicare, Medicaid, and other government health benefit programs, the Department of the Treasury announced on March 30, while warning that sophisticated fraud schemes are siphoning billions from...
Treasury Unveils Whistleblower Portal To Combat Transnational Medicare, Medicaid Fraud Rings Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Whistleblowers are encouraged to report abuse of Medicare, Medicaid, and other government health benefit programs, the Department of the Treasury announced on March 30, while warning that sophisticated fraud schemes are siphoning billions from them. The White House and the U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington on March 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times In an advisory, the Treasury detailed the way in which transnational criminal organizations —working with domestic fraudsters and organized crime groups— create fake health care providers, employ cover people to pose as owners who are not U.S. residents, and steal the personal data of actual beneficiaries to submit false claims for care that was never provided or was not needed. Proceeds are then laundered through wire transfers, digital assets, and culpable bank co-conspirators before being transferred overseas. The department said its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has published a proposed rule to fully implement a whistleblower program that would reward 10–30 percent of penalties collected in successful enforcement in fraud and money laundering cases, as well as sanctions violations. Payments would be taken from penalties obtained under the Bank Secrecy Act and other laws already in place. “The regulation proposed today, when finalized, will fully implement these statutes,” FinCEN said. “ Whistleblowers are encouraged to submit information as soon as possible and to provide detailed, specific documentation to support their claims .” In the meantime, FinCEN said it “recently launched a portal” for whistleblowers to begin making reports. Financial institutions reported a 20 percent increase in suspicious activity linked to health care fraud in 2025 over the previous year, according to the advisory. Officials, however, suspect the f...
Armada today unveiled a collaboration with Microsoft, forging an edge computing solution that unites Microsoft Azure Local with Armada's Galleon modular data centers (MDCs) and Armada Edge Platform (AEP). This solution, for Microsoft's Sovereign Private Cloud, is available now, and both companies are actively engaging customer deployments while rapidly expanding capabilities to meet the most deman...
Armada today unveiled a collaboration with Microsoft, forging an edge computing solution that unites Microsoft Azure Local with Armada's Galleon modular data centers (MDCs) and Armada Edge Platform (AEP). This solution, for Microsoft's Sovereign Private Cloud, is available now, and both companies are actively engaging customer deployments while rapidly expanding capabilities to meet the most demanding and fast evolving mission requirements.
Realty Income (NYSE: O) and AGNC (NASDAQ: AGNC) are both popular among income-seeking investors. Realty Income, which owns a portfolio of over 15,500 properties across the U.S., the U.K., and seven European countries, is one of the world's largest real estate investment trusts ( REITs ). AGNC, a leading mortgage real estate investment trust ( mREIT ), owns a $94.8 billion portfolio of mortgage-bac...
Realty Income (NYSE: O) and AGNC (NASDAQ: AGNC) are both popular among income-seeking investors. Realty Income, which owns a portfolio of over 15,500 properties across the U.S., the U.K., and seven European countries, is one of the world's largest real estate investment trusts ( REITs ). AGNC, a leading mortgage real estate investment trust ( mREIT ), owns a $94.8 billion portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and mortgages. As REITs, Realty Income and AGNC must distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to investors to maintain their lower tax rates. But which high-yielding stock is a better buy? Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
The Goldman Sachs trading desk has circulated a note flagging what it describes as a significant disconnect in Nvidia stock. The core observation is that NVDA is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio below the S&P 500 for the first time in more than a decade, even as the company ...
The Goldman Sachs trading desk has circulated a note flagging what it describes as a significant disconnect in Nvidia stock. The core observation is that NVDA is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio below the S&P 500 for the first time in more than a decade, even as the company ...
DNA testing confirmed bones found on Salmon Creek beach belonged to Walter Karl Kinney, a man last seen in 1999 Human remains discovered in the summer of 2022 on a beach in California recently were identified as those of a former banker who disappeared in 1999. The DNA Doe Project (DDP) on Thursday announced that bones found on Salmon Creek state beach in northern California in June 2022 – by a fa...
DNA testing confirmed bones found on Salmon Creek beach belonged to Walter Karl Kinney, a man last seen in 1999 Human remains discovered in the summer of 2022 on a beach in California recently were identified as those of a former banker who disappeared in 1999. The DNA Doe Project (DDP) on Thursday announced that bones found on Salmon Creek state beach in northern California in June 2022 – by a family searching for seashells – belonged to 59-year-old Walter Karl Kinney, a former banker who lived in nearby Santa Rosa. Continue reading...
Getty Images By Sam Peters, CFA Calibrating Surprise Through Oil The current conflict with Iran and the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz is the year’s first big “information-rich” event—a surprise that introduces a shock of uncertainty the market must price over time as new information reduces uncertainty. The defining characteristic of these events is a large spike in volatility, which w...
Getty Images By Sam Peters, CFA Calibrating Surprise Through Oil The current conflict with Iran and the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz is the year’s first big “information-rich” event—a surprise that introduces a shock of uncertainty the market must price over time as new information reduces uncertainty. The defining characteristic of these events is a large spike in volatility, which will ultimately result in price discovery at a level that reflects the new information. Information-rich events are typically good tests of portfolio construction and often require some level of adaptation. They also create new opportunities, typically in the form of exploitable risk premiums and behavioral errors resulting from overreactions or underreactions. Our portfolio construction has held up as designed following some recent portfolio adaptations, and, although we are observing some elevation in risk premiums, the market’s underreaction to changes in energy and commodity markets offers attractive forward return opportunities. The best way to measure surprise events is with volatility. With the latest Hormuz crisis, the best gauge is the oil volatility index (OVX), which has registered the second-largest oil volatility event on record, surpassed only by the demand collapse during COVID when oil briefly hit negative levels in Spring 2020. At its peak, the OVX reached 120, implying daily moves in oil price of roughly 8%. This level of volatility is not sustainable and has already begun to fall as uncertainty has waned (Exhibit 1). The critical unknown variable is the duration of the Strait closure. This is important, as the closure has the potential to be the largest oil supply shock in history. Currently, an estimated eight million barrels per day (mmb/d) are offline, according to the International Energy Agency, largely a function of storage filling behind the Strait. Analysts estimate the supply shock could approach or exceed 10 mmb/d within weeks, a disruption that ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... We just got consumer confidence for March from the Conference Board, with the index unexpectedly rising 0.8 points to 91.8, but still hovering close to record lows: I’m sure there’ll be a lot of commentary from now on about what the Iran situation means for overall consumer vibes and spending, given that high gas prices tend to be center stage in headlines, budgets and inflation expectations. But one question that immediately comes up is just how informative these surveys actually are, given that Americans keep saying they feel terrible, yet broadly continue to spend. There is also the issue of polarization and the huge partisan split that’s developed between Republicans and Democrats, and which arguably makes the aggregate sentiment figure far less useful. On that note though, I want to focus on one representation of the relationship between vibes and oil for one particular type of consumer — call it the Rural Retiree class. These are mostly baby boomers with time, space, some money to spend, as well as a tendency to lean Republican. The propensity for marginal spending by the Rural Retiree is perhaps best measured by stocks such as Camping World (which makes RVs), Brunswick Corp (which makes boats and boat engines), and of course, the classic Harley Davidson (which makes hogs. No, not that kind ). These are big ticket items that depend on the three ‘Cs’ — cash, confidence, and cheap gasoline. All three of those charts don’t...