Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Watch Odd Lots on YouTube Subscribe to the newsletter Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile,...
Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify Watch Odd Lots on YouTube Subscribe to the newsletter Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait.
Germany’s economy will grow at less than half the pace expected just a few months ago due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to the country’s leading research institutes. Gross domestic product will rise 0.6% this year, they said in their bi-annual forecast published Wednesday. That’s a sharp downgrade from the 1.3% growth predicted in September as faster inflation curbs private consump...
Germany’s economy will grow at less than half the pace expected just a few months ago due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to the country’s leading research institutes. Gross domestic product will rise 0.6% this year, they said in their bi-annual forecast published Wednesday. That’s a sharp downgrade from the 1.3% growth predicted in September as faster inflation curbs private consumption. They see GDP increasing 0.9% in 2027. Consumer prices are likely to rise by 2.8% this year and 2.9% next, the institutes said. “The energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard,” said Timo Wollmershaeuser , head of forecasts at the Ifo Institute. “But at the same time expansionary fiscal policy is bolstering the domestic economy and preventing a stronger slide.” Hopes of a spending-driven rebound for Europe’s biggest economy are receding as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shakes global oil and gas markets and disrupts supply chains. As a result, inflation in Germany jumped to its highest rate in more than a year in March, while sentiment indicators have deteriorated. Chancellor Friedrich Merz ’s government, which had been counting on investments in infrastructure and defense to revive the economy, is set to unveil measures to help consumers facing steeper heating and fuel bills. To avoid additional strain on the budget, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has proposed a windfall tax on energy companies. Read More: Germany Sees Danger of 2026 Growth Rate Halving on Iran Crisis The institutes said they oppose interventions that lower energy prices in the short term, as they’d nullify important market signals. Instead, they advocate targeted social compensation measures. Their bleaker assessment of the year ahead chimes with the thinking of German officials, who’ve raised the prospect that growth could amount to just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, according to people familiar with the matter. Less-severe assumptions of elevated prices see exp...
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images Many Bitcoin Bulls at this point in the game are institutional investors moving into the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, as retail investors abandon their positions due to a rash of margin calls. In January, Strategy bought $2.13 billion of bitcoin in just eight days, bringing its holdings at that time to 709,715 BTC; by March 29, Strategy said in an SEC fili...
Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images Many Bitcoin Bulls at this point in the game are institutional investors moving into the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, as retail investors abandon their positions due to a rash of margin calls. In January, Strategy bought $2.13 billion of bitcoin in just eight days, bringing its holdings at that time to 709,715 BTC; by March 29, Strategy said in an SEC filing that its total had risen to about 762,099 BTC. While Strategy holds the largest Bitcoin stash of any company in the world, it is not alone in following a business model of Bitcoin accumulation. MARA Holdings (MARA), Twenty One Capital (XXI), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), and Block, Inc. (XYZ) have also purchased substantial amounts of Bitcoin, sometimes as an investment, sometimes as a hedge against inflation. Riot Platforms and Coinbase also hold significant amounts to support their cryptocurrency operations. Looking at a recent Bitcoin chart, we can easily see the classic head-and-shoulders formation as well as a death cross, both of which indicate a downward trend. Finance.Yahoo.com Fig. 1 While many Bitcoin Bulls maintain that a surge of corporate investors into the Bitcoin space creates a floor beneath the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s institutional support is hardly risk-free. The floor provided by the numerous corporations flocking into Bitcoin is built on a shaky foundation that may be cracking under the pressure of global events. Even before the Iran war sent oil prices soaring, the macro backdrop for the entire equities market was already fragile. Bitcoin’s New Institutional Floor Could Become a Trap Door Taking a closer look at the mosaic tiles that make up the institutional flooring beneath the current price of Bitcoin, what we see is a complex pattern of stock issuance, corporate bonds, and even Bitcoin holdings being used as collateral to buy more Bitcoins. The most common ways that institutional investors raise money to purchase large amounts of Bit...
Microsoft is on track to invest $5.5 billion in cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Singapore through 2029, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Microsoft did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. (Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
Microsoft is on track to invest $5.5 billion in cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Singapore through 2029, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Microsoft did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. (Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
The S&P Global France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 50.0 in March,marking little change from February's 50.1 and therefore signalling stagnant operating conditions across France's goods-producing economy. The figure was lower than estimated 50.2. "The March PMI revealed an immediate impact from the war in the Middle East. The survey data, collected between 12-24 March, imply a ra...
The S&P Global France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 50.0 in March,marking little change from February's 50.1 and therefore signalling stagnant operating conditions across France's goods-producing economy. The figure was lower than estimated 50.2. "The March PMI revealed an immediate impact from the war in the Middle East. The survey data, collected between 12-24 March, imply a rapid supply-side squeeze from the conflict as delivery times lengthened substantially and input costs soared. The passthrough to output prices appears to be fairly contained at this stage. This could be due to an unfavourable demand environment limiting French producers' pricing power, although firms may also be stalling price increases in the hope that there is a quick resolution to the war that brings with it a normalisation of supply and price conditions." said Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. More on France U.S. Tariffs: A New Trade War? EWQ: Falling Real Rates Delayed The Bear Case, But 2026 May Not ‘Mr. Brexit’ strategist nails winning calls as Iran conflict erupts Euro Area inflation rises to 2.5% in March Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on iShares MSCI France ETF