Here's Morningstar's Safe-Withdrawal Rate For 2026 Retirees Factoring in projected rates for asset-class returns and inflation, Morningstar analysts say the highest "safe" starting withdrawal rate for people retiring in 2026 is 3.9% of portfolio assets . By "safe," Morningstar means this is the highest rate that has a 90% chance of having some money at the end of a 30-year retirement. Depending on...
Here's Morningstar's Safe-Withdrawal Rate For 2026 Retirees Factoring in projected rates for asset-class returns and inflation, Morningstar analysts say the highest "safe" starting withdrawal rate for people retiring in 2026 is 3.9% of portfolio assets . By "safe," Morningstar means this is the highest rate that has a 90% chance of having some money at the end of a 30-year retirement. Depending on the scheme you use for subsequent withdrawals, you may be able to succeed with a higher initial withdrawal rate. Morningstar calculates the safe initial-withdrawal rate each year. This year's rate is up 20 basis points from last year's 3.7%. It was just 3.3% in 2021. It bears emphasizing that Morningstar's 3.9% rate isn't for anyone at any point in their retirement: It's an initial withdrawal rate for someone just starting to tap a portfolio in 2026, and then planning to increase subsequent withdrawals by the previous year's inflation rate. For example, someone with a million-dollar portfolio would take $39,000 out in the first year. Let's say price-inflation in 2026 is 5%. Next year's withdrawal would be $39,000 x 1.05, or $40,950. We project your portfolio can support a $12.95 withdrawal for a handsome ZeroHedge mug - find yours at the ZeroHedge Store Morningstar's 3.9% rate also assumes an equity allocation between 30% and 50%. "Because of the higher volatility associated with higher equity weightings, boosting stocks detracts from the starting safe withdrawal percentage rather than adds to it," Morningstar says. That equity-weighting dynamic springs from what makes retirement-withdrawal planning so dicey: "sequence of return" risk. It's the chance that dismal returns in the critical first years of retirement put a major dent in your portfolio, increasing your risk of running out of money. On a 30-year retirement, Morningstar found equity allocations of 30% to 50% support a 3.9% initial withdrawal. However, an 80% equity weighting dropped it to 3.6% , while a 10% stock ...
AMD US0079031078 All eyes are on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as it prepares to release its quarterly financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, February 3rd. For investors, this report represents far more than a simple revenue check. Following a substantial rally in its share price, the semiconductor giant is under pressure to demonstrate that the market's significant optimism regardin...
AMD US0079031078 All eyes are on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as it prepares to release its quarterly financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, February 3rd. For investors, this report represents far more than a simple revenue check. Following a substantial rally in its share price, the semiconductor giant is under pressure to demonstrate that the market's significant optimism regarding its artificial intelligence (AI) prospects is fundamentally sound. The central question looming over Wall Street is whether AMD can meet these elevated expectations. The stock's recent trajectory underscores the high stakes. Over a twelve-month period, AMD shares have surged by more than 112%. However, this impressive run has been punctuated by volatility as some investors opted to secure profits after the stock recently touched an all-time high. This activity contributed to a pullback of approximately 8% over the past week, with shares settling at $242.70. Market strategists often view such consolidation ahead of a major earnings announcement as a typical repositioning to mitigate event risk. The Financial Benchmark Analysts have set a high bar for the company's fourth-quarter performance. The consensus estimate points to earnings per share of around $1.32. Regarding revenue, expectations are tightly clustered, with forecasts anticipating a figure between $9.65 billion and $9.67 billion. This follows an exceptionally strong previous quarter, where AMD posted record revenue of $9.2 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 36%. A key focus for the investment community will be assessing whether this robust momentum can be sustained or if a deceleration in the growth rate is emerging. Data Center and AI: The Core Growth Engine Investor scrutiny will be intensely focused on the performance and outlook for AMD's Data Center segment. This business unit, identified by company leadership as the primary growth driver, hinges on the successful adoption of its MI300 AI acceler...
Techa Tungateja/iStock via Getty Images With panic in the streets in some parts of the country and global relationships in flux, there are many forecasts that the US dollar is no longer the reserve currency it has been for many years. By my analysis, this is all self-interested fluff designed to game politically and personally. A 40yr+ history of the DXY Index shows the US dollar is not collapsing...
Techa Tungateja/iStock via Getty Images With panic in the streets in some parts of the country and global relationships in flux, there are many forecasts that the US dollar is no longer the reserve currency it has been for many years. By my analysis, this is all self-interested fluff designed to game politically and personally. A 40yr+ history of the DXY Index shows the US dollar is not collapsing as these actors claim. There have been many factors for US dollar strength in the past. It has been a haven during stressful times, as during covid and it has been the place for opportunity, as during the lead-up to the internet bubble. Recently, Trump settled multiple long-term local conflicts, and the shift back to these areas for restoration opportunities is also part of the DXY Index pattern. It should be clearly seen that DXY falls every time EEM and EFA rise, which indicates capital flows are exiting the US dollar for foreign markets. Note that earlier versions of EEM showing 0.9% growth have been replaced by an MSCI reformatted EMM with less exposure to Chinese issues. This makes the long-term performance of the reformatted EMM look better at 2%, but it does not change my long-term theme that the SP500 outperforms at 10% because of protections to free speech and personal property. This includes protections for intellectual property. The highly touted Chinese marketplace as a growth theme has been overstated for many years. Communist dictatorships have never been and will never be investment-worthy. In my opinion, the US dollar is acting as it always has. It fluctuates! There is no collapse as claimed, and no one need be concerned. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Microsoft's commercial backlog more than doubled year over year, pointing to enormous demand for AI. Microsoft (MSFT 10.23%) just reported fiscal second-quarter results, and the software and cloud giant offered one especially telling signal about demand for its commercial products, largely driven by a growing appetite for AI (artificial intelligence)-capable cloud computing: the software giant's c...
Microsoft's commercial backlog more than doubled year over year, pointing to enormous demand for AI. Microsoft (MSFT 10.23%) just reported fiscal second-quarter results, and the software and cloud giant offered one especially telling signal about demand for its commercial products, largely driven by a growing appetite for AI (artificial intelligence)-capable cloud computing: the software giant's commercial remaining performance obligations soared to $625 billion. The more than doubling of this figure year over year is reassuring for investors. Microsoft is spending heavily to expand compute capacity for AI and cloud workloads, so a healthy pipeline of contracted demand is a key part of the story. But does a soaring backlog like this really reflect how Microsoft's revenue can inflect over time? Or is it possible that the company sees very little acceleration in its business, despite a surge in commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO)? Microsoft's surging backlog Why watch Microsoft's commercial RPOs? Microsoft's commercial RPOs represent the dollar value of contracted commercial work that has not yet been recognized as revenue. They're a key indicator of demand for Microsoft's services. And, lately, the AI boom has provided a huge tailwind for this key metric. In its fiscal second quarter, Microsoft said commercial remaining performance obligations rose 110% to $625 billion. Not only was this a big sequential increase from $392 billion in fiscal Q1, but it also marked a significant step-up in the speed at which Microsoft's backlog is growing. Microsoft's 110% year-over-year increase in commercial RPOs in fiscal Q2 was more than twice its 51% growth rate in fiscal Q1. 4 reasons to be skeptical With this said, there are four reasons investors should view this backlog cautiously. First of all, it's worth emphasizing that this is contracted work, not guaranteed revenue. On the same note, RPOs represent multiyear demand, meaning that this contracted work will ta...
Microsoft's commercial backlog more than doubled year over year, pointing to enormous demand for AI. Microsoft (MSFT 10.23%) just reported fiscal second-quarter results, and the software and cloud giant offered one especially telling signal about demand for its commercial products, largely driven by a growing appetite for AI (artificial intelligence)-capable cloud computing: the software giant's c...
Microsoft's commercial backlog more than doubled year over year, pointing to enormous demand for AI. Microsoft (MSFT 10.23%) just reported fiscal second-quarter results, and the software and cloud giant offered one especially telling signal about demand for its commercial products, largely driven by a growing appetite for AI (artificial intelligence)-capable cloud computing: the software giant's commercial remaining performance obligations soared to $625 billion. The more than doubling of this figure year over year is reassuring for investors. Microsoft is spending heavily to expand compute capacity for AI and cloud workloads, so a healthy pipeline of contracted demand is a key part of the story. But does a soaring backlog like this really reflect how Microsoft's revenue can inflect over time? Or is it possible that the company sees very little acceleration in its business, despite a surge in commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO)? Microsoft's surging backlog Why watch Microsoft's commercial RPOs? Microsoft's commercial RPOs represent the dollar value of contracted commercial work that has not yet been recognized as revenue. They're a key indicator of demand for Microsoft's services. And, lately, the AI boom has provided a huge tailwind for this key metric. In its fiscal second quarter, Microsoft said commercial remaining performance obligations rose 110% to $625 billion. Not only was this a big sequential increase from $392 billion in fiscal Q1, but it also marked a significant step-up in the speed at which Microsoft's backlog is growing. Microsoft's 110% year-over-year increase in commercial RPOs in fiscal Q2 was more than twice its 51% growth rate in fiscal Q1. 4 reasons to be skeptical With this said, there are four reasons investors should view this backlog cautiously. First of all, it's worth emphasizing that this is contracted work, not guaranteed revenue. On the same note, RPOs represent multiyear demand, meaning that this contracted work will ta...
A growing number of global investors plan to add money to China-focused hedge funds this year, a stark reversal from the stampede for the exit only three years ago, according to an annual survey by BNP Paribas SA . A net 14% of investors intend to channel more capital to China funds in 2026, BNP found, with about 9% of them already having done so last year. Amid a broader shift away from US assets...
A growing number of global investors plan to add money to China-focused hedge funds this year, a stark reversal from the stampede for the exit only three years ago, according to an annual survey by BNP Paribas SA . A net 14% of investors intend to channel more capital to China funds in 2026, BNP found, with about 9% of them already having done so last year. Amid a broader shift away from US assets, the survey showed that appetite for exposure to the world’s second-largest economy this year is only slightly lower than interest in North America, which has fallen significantly from 2025. That reinforces a revival from 2023, when 42% of allocators pulled capital from China funds. “The China turnaround story definitely started to happen last year,” Marlin Naidoo , the French bank’s London-based global head of capital introduction, said in an interview. “It feels like it’s going to happen even more so going into this year.” The December poll involved 246 allocators who either parcel out money to hedge funds or advise clients who do so. They accounted for a combined $1.1 trillion in hedge fund assets, more than a fifth of the industry’s global total. Rising geopolitical risks, China’s slowing economic growth and regulatory crackdowns on a number of industries had deterred investors from the country over the past few years. The MSCI China Index is still more than 30% off its mid-February 2021 peak. The renewed interest in China funds has emerged as DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough early last year sparked a broad rally that sent the benchmark share index up 28% by year end, the most since 2017. Chinese equities outpaced MSCI’s broader Asia-Pacific gauge and rose nearly 12 percentage points more than the S&P 500 Index. Even as they warm up to China again, investors still favor funds that cover the broader Asia-Pacific market. A net 30% of respondents plan to add to those in 2026, up from the 24% who actually did so last year. The region is the second-most sough...
How does it feel when ICE agents swarm your city? Minneapolis residents on why they are rising up Since the beginning of January, thousands of ICE agents have been deployed to the city. Confusion, violence and chaos followed. Two people have been killed, hundreds have disappeared – but that’s not the full story. Because thousands of residents in the city have been mobilising. Annie Kelly spoke to ...
How does it feel when ICE agents swarm your city? Minneapolis residents on why they are rising up Since the beginning of January, thousands of ICE agents have been deployed to the city. Confusion, violence and chaos followed. Two people have been killed, hundreds have disappeared – but that’s not the full story. Because thousands of residents in the city have been mobilising. Annie Kelly spoke to five people living in Minneapolis about how they have been taking on ICE – and the consequences. Patty O’Keefe explains what it’s like to be a legal observer, and how ICE agents smashed her windows and detained her. Jenny talks about why her childhood experience of her father being detained by ICE has pushed her to stand up for others. A teacher explains how the city has changed and an organiser on why tactics have had to change as ICE strategies have developed. “We all grab a whistle before we leave. I know it’s a joke here. Make sure you’ve got your keys, phone, wallet, gloves, and now your whistle.” Continue reading...