A Democratic congressman had harsh criticism for Polymarket for allowing users to bet on the date the U.S. would confirm the rescue of Air Force service members shot down over Iran.
A Democratic congressman had harsh criticism for Polymarket for allowing users to bet on the date the U.S. would confirm the rescue of Air Force service members shot down over Iran.
The Four Iran War End-Games Revisited, And The Peak Pressure Points Submitted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities A Yogi Berra Kind of Weekend There is something special about “home openers.” The baseball season can drag on, but the home opener is such a great reminder that summer is on the way and that the possibility of winning it all remains in your reach. Maybe that is why I have Yogi Berra o...
The Four Iran War End-Games Revisited, And The Peak Pressure Points Submitted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities A Yogi Berra Kind of Weekend There is something special about “home openers.” The baseball season can drag on, but the home opener is such a great reminder that summer is on the way and that the possibility of winning it all remains in your reach. Maybe that is why I have Yogi Berra on my mind. Or maybe, and far more likely, it is because a lot of recent discussions seem to lend themselves well to Yogi-isms . It is easy to start a conversation with a mindset of “we are pulling out soon, with a weak deal,” and wind up ending at “we are all-in” for a final victory. And vice versa. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. When you come to a fork in the road, take it. I didn’t really say everything I said. The future ain’t what it used to be. To name a few. On Wednesday we published our take on the likely and possible paths we would be on after the Presidential Address . After the address, all we could say was - all the paths are still in play. If that isn’t in the realm of Yogi Berra, nothing is. Media and Academy’s Podcast On Friday, after the More Strange than Strong jobs report, Academy was on Bloomberg TV . The Academy segment starts at the 1:52:40 mark. It isn’t important that I wore a pink shirt and purple tie for the Easter weekend, it was important that the 2nd half of the interview was very focused on the conflict in Iran. The hosts were incredibly complimentary of Academy’s Podcast, so it seems like a good time to provide you with the links to our podcasts. End State and Timing It is so easy to get twisted in circles on the subject of where this conflict is going. One moment it seems like there might be cooperation to open the Strait. The next moment, more infrastructure in Iran and the region is being hit. The “ four” end conditions that we see are: No Deal. The U.S. just pulls out, without any real political change. The message will be – we broke it again...
Melpomenem Markets are beginning to price in a “Trump risk premium” as policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions rise, according to economist Robin Brooks. Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, said recent moves in Treasury yields suggest investors are starting to price in political risk tied to President Donald Trump’s policy approach, especially around trade, fiscal expansion, ...
Melpomenem Markets are beginning to price in a “Trump risk premium” as policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions rise, according to economist Robin Brooks. Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, said recent moves in Treasury yields suggest investors are starting to price in political risk tied to President Donald Trump’s policy approach, especially around trade, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical tensions. Brooks pointed to a divergence between short- and long-term yields ( SHY ) ( TBT ) ( TLT ), with the back end of the curve rising more sharply. That pattern indicates markets are demanding additional compensation for holding longer-dated debt, reflecting uncertainty over inflation, deficits, and policy direction. The move comes as investors grapple with the potential for more aggressive tariffs, higher government spending, and a less predictable geopolitical backdrop. Those factors could push up long-term inflation expectations and increase Treasury supply, both of which weigh on longer-duration bonds. Brooks argues that while markets have historically been slow to price political risk, the current environment may be different given the scale of potential policy shifts and their impact on global trade and capital flows. The development suggests that even without immediate changes from the Federal Reserve, political dynamics are beginning to influence financial conditions, particularly in rates markets. Dear readers: We recognize that politics often intersects with the financial news of the day, so we invite you to click here to join the separate political discussion. More on United States 30-Year Bond Yield Treasury Yields Snapshot: April 2, 2026 Macro Insights: The Hormuz Crisis Says No, But The Market Says Yes Is The War Really Reaching Its End? Assets Bounce Despite Oil Rally - Market Check Bond market may be shifting to growth fear from inflation fear Treasury yields surge in March, posting the biggest monthly jump since 2024
A cargo ship carrying wheat sank in the Sea of Azov after coming under attack from Ukrainian drones, a Russia-installed official said on Sunday, leaving one person dead and two missing. Vladimir Saldo, Moscow-installed leader of the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine’s Kherson region, said the attack happened on Friday but crew members were unable to make known what had happened to them until S...
A cargo ship carrying wheat sank in the Sea of Azov after coming under attack from Ukrainian drones, a Russia-installed official said on Sunday, leaving one person dead and two missing. Vladimir Saldo, Moscow-installed leader of the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine’s Kherson region, said the attack happened on Friday but crew members were unable to make known what had happened to them until Sunday. “It became known that the reason for the sinking of the Volgo-Balt in the Sea of Azov was a...
If you have money in a traditional retirement account, required minimum distributions are something you'll have to start dealing with at age 73 or 75, depending on your year of birth. And warning: They can be a huge pain. The reason required minimum distributions (RMDs) exist is that you get a tax break on the money that goes into a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k). The IR...
If you have money in a traditional retirement account, required minimum distributions are something you'll have to start dealing with at age 73 or 75, depending on your year of birth. And warning: They can be a huge pain. The reason required minimum distributions (RMDs) exist is that you get a tax break on the money that goes into a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k). The IRS wants to tax that money eventually, so it forces savers to take withdrawals at a certain point. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
BlackJack3D/E+ via Getty Images A surge in global plastic prices tied to the Iran conflict has delivered an unexpected windfall for U.S. chemical producers, reversing years of weak demand and oversupply, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. Jim Fitterling, chief executive of Dow ( DOW ), told investors the market had shifted rapidly, with polyethylene prices climbing across regions. The compan...
BlackJack3D/E+ via Getty Images A surge in global plastic prices tied to the Iran conflict has delivered an unexpected windfall for U.S. chemical producers, reversing years of weak demand and oversupply, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. Jim Fitterling, chief executive of Dow ( DOW ), told investors the market had shifted rapidly, with polyethylene prices climbing across regions. The company raised North American prices multiple times in quick succession, accelerating increases as conditions tightened. Polyethylene, widely used in packaging and consumer goods, had been in a prolonged slump following the pandemic. That changed abruptly as the conflict disrupted supply chains. Middle Eastern producers, which account for a significant share of global output, reduced production, while manufacturers in Europe and Asia faced limited access to crude oil feedstocks. This created an opening for U.S. producers, which rely on relatively inexpensive natural gas. Companies have ramped up output and are running facilities near full capacity, with Fitterling indicating operations are expected to remain highly utilized through the year. Industry analysts say the pace of price increases is unusual. One market expert noted that the speed and scale of recent hikes are unlike anything seen in decades, underscoring how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape commodity markets. The shift has lifted share prices sharply. Dow’s ( DOW ) stock has rebounded strongly this year after a prolonged decline, while LyondellBasell ( LYB ) has seen similar gains as demand for plastics like polypropylene improves. According to Agustin Izquierdo, supply constraints in the Middle East have effectively trapped material in the region, creating export opportunities for North American producers and boosting profitability. The ripple effects extend beyond plastics. Other U.S. materials companies, including Chemours ( CC ), Tronox ( TROX ) and Celanese ( CE ), are also benefiting as global competitors ...
The familiar London Stadium rush for the exit has never been so misjudged. A lot of West Ham fans decided they had seen enough when Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Leeds within touching distance of a first FA Cup semi-final since 1987, but how wrong they were. The non-believers reckoned without their side forcing extra time with a wild fightback from 2-0 down and were not allowed back in to see a ridicu...
The familiar London Stadium rush for the exit has never been so misjudged. A lot of West Ham fans decided they had seen enough when Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Leeds within touching distance of a first FA Cup semi-final since 1987, but how wrong they were. The non-believers reckoned without their side forcing extra time with a wild fightback from 2-0 down and were not allowed back in to see a ridiculously game go the distance. It ended with Finlay Herrick, a 20-year-old goalkeeper whose experience of senior football extended no further than 10 games during a loan spell with National League side Boreham Wood earlier this season, coming on for his West Ham debut after Alphonse Areola went down injured. Talk about a baptism of fire. Soon West Ham’s No 4 goalkeeper was in a penalty shootout. To add to the mix, it took place at the West Ham end amid unconfirmed suggestions that those in charge of stadium security did not want the kicks taken in front of the 9,000 travelling Leeds. Continue reading...
Finding millionaire-maker artificial intelligence (AI) stocks isn't as easy as one might think. Generating huge returns from a single stock is rare, although there are several prominent examples out there. The key is to find a company that's offering a product to a wide range of businesses, and is in an early enough stage where massive upside is still possible. I think SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN)...
Finding millionaire-maker artificial intelligence (AI) stocks isn't as easy as one might think. Generating huge returns from a single stock is rare, although there are several prominent examples out there. The key is to find a company that's offering a product to a wide range of businesses, and is in an early enough stage where massive upside is still possible. I think SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN) fits that description, and follows the pattern of another millionaire-maker stock: Nvidia . Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
The quadruple dream may be dead but Arsenal are now just four games from achieving an unprecedented nonruple And then there were two. As the clock ticked down at St Mary’s Stadium on Saturday night even the stray yellow balloons on the pitch had begun to take on a weirdly mocking quality. The balloons were almost too much, like metaphors-for-hire in an arthouse film, popping up in shot every time ...
The quadruple dream may be dead but Arsenal are now just four games from achieving an unprecedented nonruple And then there were two. As the clock ticked down at St Mary’s Stadium on Saturday night even the stray yellow balloons on the pitch had begun to take on a weirdly mocking quality. The balloons were almost too much, like metaphors-for-hire in an arthouse film, popping up in shot every time Arsenal tried to transform another spell of mechanical pressure into creative, incisive football. Your dreams? Your dreams are just air inside a polymer shell. Your dreams are a squeaky veneer. Even when you try to take agency over your dreams, or at least stamp on them before a set piece, they will scoot away and bobble about annoyingly near the corner flag. Continue reading...
Leeds United will play Chelsea at Wembley after reaching the FA Cup semi-finals for the first time in almost four decades, while Manchester City take on Southampton.
Leeds United will play Chelsea at Wembley after reaching the FA Cup semi-finals for the first time in almost four decades, while Manchester City take on Southampton.
US stock indexes ended the week higher as hopes of an eventual de-escalation in the Iran conflict eased stagflation fears and improved risk sentiment, while oil prices continued to surge. Iran has signaled a partial easing of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iraqi oil shipments to pass through the vital corridor after weeks of disruption that rattled global energy markets, the Financ...
US stock indexes ended the week higher as hopes of an eventual de-escalation in the Iran conflict eased stagflation fears and improved risk sentiment, while oil prices continued to surge. Iran has signaled a partial easing of restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iraqi oil shipments to pass through the vital corridor after weeks of disruption that rattled global energy markets, the Financial Times reported Sunday. For the week, the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) and Nasdaq ( COMP:IND ) climbed 3.4% and 4.4% respectively while Dow ( DJI ) booked a 3% uptick. Across the Atlantic, the European equities ( STOXX ) ended the week 3.3% higher. On the data front, the inflation rate in the Euro Area increased in March, compared to February, but stayed lower than estimates. Eurozone manufacturing activity strengthened in March, exceeding both the previous month and initial estimates. UK manufacturing growth slowed but stayed above expectations, while the economy showed modest quarterly growth and weaker annual expansion. Meanwhile, the UK government has reached agreement with the US government that drugs made in the UK will not face tariffs in the US. In the week, London’s FTSE 100 ( UKX ) equities rose 4.7% while Germany ( DAX:IND ) and France ( CAC:IND ) markets advanced 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Major corporate news from Europe this week: Unilever ( UL ) is nearing a deal to merge its global foods division with McCormick & Company ( MKC ) with an upfront cash component of ~$15.7B and the majority of the consideration in McCormick ( MKC ) equity. The Asia-Pacific markets In the last week, Chinese markets ( SHCOMP ) slipped 0.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 ( NKY:IND ) rose 4.4%. China’s official manufacturing activity improved and exceeded expectations, while a private survey showed slower growth, and Japan’s manufacturing data was revised slightly higher. The Bank of Japan signalled it may continue raising interest rates and reduce monetary support if economic and price trends...
Feds Clear Path To Keep California's Last Nuclear Power Plant Open For 20 More Years Federal regulators have approved keeping the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant running for decades longer, granting 20-year license renewals for its two reactors, according to Yahoo/San Fran Chronicle . Located on the San Luis Obispo County coast, Unit 1 is now cleared to operate through 2044 and Unit 2 through 2045. Th...
Feds Clear Path To Keep California's Last Nuclear Power Plant Open For 20 More Years Federal regulators have approved keeping the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant running for decades longer, granting 20-year license renewals for its two reactors, according to Yahoo/San Fran Chronicle . Located on the San Luis Obispo County coast, Unit 1 is now cleared to operate through 2044 and Unit 2 through 2045. The decision marks a significant win for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who pushed in 2022 to delay the facility’s closure in order to avoid power shortages during California’s transition to renewable energy. Diablo Canyon supplies roughly 9% of the state’s electricity and about 17% of its carbon-free power. Newsom said the extension supports grid reliability and helps the state handle extreme weather while maintaining an affordable and resilient energy system. The report says that even with federal approval, the plant’s long-term future still depends on state action. Current California law only allows operations through 2030, so lawmakers would need to pass new legislation for the plant to run beyond that date. The extension remains controversial. Pacific Gas & Electric estimates customers will pay around $7.6 billion to keep the plant open through 2030, drawing criticism from consumer advocates and environmental groups. Critics also point to concerns about earthquake risks and the plant’s seawater cooling system, which uses large volumes of ocean water. Federal regulators concluded the environmental impact of continued operation would be minimal, though opposition groups continue to raise safety and environmental concerns. * * * Order Rancher-Direct tonight. $25 shipping now on most items. Steak Lover's Bundle Ultimate BBQ Bundle Carnivore Trio Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 14:55
AI skeptics aren’t the only ones warning users not to unthinkingly trust models’ outputs — that’s what the AI companies say themselves in their terms of service.
AI skeptics aren’t the only ones warning users not to unthinkingly trust models’ outputs — that’s what the AI companies say themselves in their terms of service.