Bayern Munich are waiting on the fitness of "very special" Harry Kane to see if he can lead their challenge to overcome Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final.
Bayern Munich are waiting on the fitness of "very special" Harry Kane to see if he can lead their challenge to overcome Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final.
Alexander Shapovalov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Much has gone down with cruise operator Carnival Corporation & plc ( CCL ) ( CUK ) since I last checked on it in December. From then until early February, its price rose by no less than 30%. Cut to now, however, and it's back to where I last left it. So here, I discuss why CCL has nosedived and move on to why there's now even more upside to it...
Alexander Shapovalov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Much has gone down with cruise operator Carnival Corporation & plc ( CCL ) ( CUK ) since I last checked on it in December. From then until early February, its price rose by no less than 30%. Cut to now, however, and it's back to where I last left it. So here, I discuss why CCL has nosedived and move on to why there's now even more upside to it now. Why the Carnival Stock Nosedived While the stock had already started gently coming off after touching multi-year highs in early February, likely on profit taking, it truly slumped following the start of the US-Iran war. It has lost some 20% of its value since the end of February, as a result, making its decline the second biggest after Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. ( NCLH ) (see chart below). The outsized impact on cruises was to be anticipated for the following four reasons: Price Returns (Feb 27-Present): Cruise Stocks (CCL, NCLH, RCL, VIK) and S&P 500 (Source: Seeking Alpha) #1. Inflation Risk Can Dent Consumer Demand The most apparent macroeconomic impact of the war is, of course, the oil price shock that has tipped crude prices to over $100/bbl. Even though the Fed's latest economic projections indicate that inflation risk is contained so far, consumers are beginning to feel uncertain. This is evident in the latest consumer confidence survey results. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped for the first time in three months. While the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index did better, even in this case, consumers optimism about the future is waning. If a spending pullback occurs, consumer discretionary services like cruises could well be impacted. #2. Carnival Brands Cancel Some Cruises The war impacts supply-side dynamics too. Two of Carnival's brands, Costa Cruises and Aida Cruises, have cancelled trips to the Middle East, citing unpredictability in the region. While these trips have been redirected elsewhere, indicati...
GarryKillian/iStock via Getty Images Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems ( ESLT ) said Monday it is gearing up to begin supplying Watchkeeper X drones to Romania under a contract valued at 1.89 billion lei, or about $428.75 million, following tensions over delivery delays. The agreement, signed in 2022, covers seven unmanned aircraft systems and originally called for deliveries to start in 20...
GarryKillian/iStock via Getty Images Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems ( ESLT ) said Monday it is gearing up to begin supplying Watchkeeper X drones to Romania under a contract valued at 1.89 billion lei, or about $428.75 million, following tensions over delivery delays. The agreement, signed in 2022, covers seven unmanned aircraft systems and originally called for deliveries to start in 2025. The timeline came under scrutiny last week when Romania’s defense minister warned the deal could be scrapped if progress did not improve. Elbit ( ESLT ) said the program remains a priority despite disruptions tied to the current security situation in Israel , which it noted has been treated as a force majeure event by customers globally. According to the company, the systems are expected to undergo final acceptance testing in Romania later this month, pending regulatory approval. It added that production of the drones is taking place in Romania. Romania, which belongs to both the European Union and NATO, shares a roughly 650-kilometer border with Ukraine . The country has reported multiple incidents of drones entering its airspace and debris landing on its territory since Russia began targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure along the Danube River. More on Elbit Systems Elbit Systems Execution Remains Strong But Expectations Run High Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Elbit Systems Ltd. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Elbit Systems wins $750M PULS rocket artillery contract with Greece Elbit Systems outlines $300M CapEx plan for 2026 to meet surging demand and record $28.1B backlog
Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images Today, as the S&P 500 continues on a bearish sideways path, having “anticipated” it by including instruments like the VanEck Real Assets ETF ( RAAX ) in the portfolio would have been a nice tactical choice. Certain funds may seem “stiff” while everything is going up, but in my opinion, they act as a stabilizer of expected returns when “everything goes d...
Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images Today, as the S&P 500 continues on a bearish sideways path, having “anticipated” it by including instruments like the VanEck Real Assets ETF ( RAAX ) in the portfolio would have been a nice tactical choice. Certain funds may seem “stiff” while everything is going up, but in my opinion, they act as a stabilizer of expected returns when “everything goes down.” So far, in recent cycles, it has gone like this. But let’s go into detail. What Is RAAX? The fund is actively managed by VanEck as an ETF of ETFs/fund-of-funds : here the added value does not come from pure stock picking but mainly from asset allocation across already packaged thematic blocks. Its benchmark is the Bloomberg Commodity Index, although it is not perfectly aligned with the actual structure of the fund, but we will see this later. RAAX: Historical price trend (Seeking Alpha) In detail, the fund aims for long-term total return and, in pursuing it, states that it seeks to maximize real returns and reduce downside risk during sustained market declines . It has an expense ratio of 0.69%, not negligible: the perceived cost is lower than the actual economic cost because the fund adds its fees to those of the underlying holdings, creating fee layering and a relevant drag on compounding. A cost that is, however, well covered by the distribution, given a dividend yield of 1.98%. This despite the fact that RAAX is not an income ETF, because the income is modest, irregular, and closer to a byproduct of management and rotations than to a stable cash flow engine. RAAX: Dividend metrics overview (Seeking Alpha) How It Is Constructed The fund invests, under normal conditions, at least 80% of its assets in instruments that provide exposure to real assets. The categories mentioned are commodities, natural resource equities, income assets such as REITs, Infrastructure, MLPs, gold, and gold mining equities. In this sense, mainly in ETPs, ETFs, ETNs, commodity pools or trusts...
NguyenDucQuang/iStock Editorial via Getty Images VinFast Auto ( VFS ) gained in late afternoon trading on Monday after the Vietnamese electric vehicle maker disclosed record March e-scooter dealer demand in Vietnam, with over 135,000 dealer orders and more than 93,000 units shipped. The e-scooter sales surge was led by the Evo and Feliz models. Notably, the company reported that dealers sold more ...
NguyenDucQuang/iStock Editorial via Getty Images VinFast Auto ( VFS ) gained in late afternoon trading on Monday after the Vietnamese electric vehicle maker disclosed record March e-scooter dealer demand in Vietnam, with over 135,000 dealer orders and more than 93,000 units shipped. The e-scooter sales surge was led by the Evo and Feliz models. Notably, the company reported that dealers sold more than 52,000 Evo units in March and over 24,000 Feliz units to end customers. The momentum follows a strong 2025, when VinFast delivered about 406,000 e-scooters and e-bikes, which it said made it the top e-scooter brand by market share in Vietnam. The Evo lineup alone contributed more than 250,000 units in 2025, while other models such as Feliz, Klara, Vento, Vero X, Theon, Motio, Zgoo, and Flazz were supported by the company's network of more than 600 authorized distributors. At the beginning of 2026, the company launched the new Evo, Feliz II, Viper, and Amio e-scooters and expanded its battery-swapping network to 4,500 stations, targeting 45,000 battery cabinets in the first quarter to enhance convenience and underpin further growth. Shares of VinFast ( VFS ) are up more than 34% on a year-to-date basis.
Morgan Stanley plans to debut an interval fund investing predominantly in private credit, just as retail investment vehicles in the $1.8 trillion market are being hit with record redemption requests. The North Haven Strategic Credit Fund is expected to include “a wide spectrum of credit strategies” and anticipates allowing redemptions of 5% of outstanding shares every quarter, according to an Apri...
Morgan Stanley plans to debut an interval fund investing predominantly in private credit, just as retail investment vehicles in the $1.8 trillion market are being hit with record redemption requests. The North Haven Strategic Credit Fund is expected to include “a wide spectrum of credit strategies” and anticipates allowing redemptions of 5% of outstanding shares every quarter, according to an April 3 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. “Therefore, shareholders may not be able to sell their shares when and/or in the amount they desire,” Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. said in the filing. The nontraded vehicle enters a challenging market, as the private credit industry is facing its greatest liquidity squeeze to date. Vehicles for retail investors — particularly business development companies — are grappling with a surge in redemption requests amid fears over AI disruption and underlying loan quality. Managers across the market are capping withdrawals to manage outflows, trapping billions of dollars in investor funds that are unable to exit. Read More: Trapped in Private Credit, Investors Wait to Pull Out $5 Billion A representative for Morgan Stanley declined to comment. While BDCs typically focus mostly direct lending, interval funds often invest in a more diverse set of credit assets. In addition to direct loans, Morgan Stanley will hold private securitized debt, capital solutions, real estate debt and public credit such as high-yield bonds. In March, JPMorgan Chase & Co. also announced plans to launch an interval fund investing in private credit that would offer 7.5% redemptions each quarter, a rare exception to the industry norm of 5%. Also undeterred by the wave of redemptions, Oak Hill Advisors is launching an interval fund that will deploy capital across public and private debt.
Technology stocks have returned to attractive levels for investors willing to play the long game after a pullback from last year’s record highs, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni . Uncertainty around the impact of artificial intelligence on software businesses, coupled with the effects of the war on Iran, have pushed information technology stocks down 13% since the sector reached an all-t...
Technology stocks have returned to attractive levels for investors willing to play the long game after a pullback from last year’s record highs, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni . Uncertainty around the impact of artificial intelligence on software businesses, coupled with the effects of the war on Iran, have pushed information technology stocks down 13% since the sector reached an all-time closing high in October. During that period, earnings estimates for the sector have accelerated, pushing its price-to-earnings multiple to 20.6. This is almost in line with the multiple of 19.6 for the S&P 500 Index. “For investors with a multi-year horizon, this is an attractive entry point,” Yardeni said in a note sent to clients on Sunday. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index rose 0.4% on Monday, heading for a four-day win streak. However, the sector is still down 7.2% so far this year, pressured by concerns over sky-high valuations, fears of AI disruption on software, and a risk-off mood taking hold. Information technology, along with communication services, make up a majority of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Yardeni said that this exceeds the dot-com era peak. While the comparison is likely to make some nervous, there is “more earnings support” for the high concentration in the market compared to over 26 years ago, he said. “Today, the forward earnings share of the two sectors, at 42.0%, is only 1.6 percentage points above the market-cap share,” said Yardeni. “At the dot-com peak, the gap between market-cap share and earnings share exceeded 15 percentage points. Today’s concentration is well deserved.” Yardeni isn’t alone in signaling that information technology stocks have reached attractive valuations. Wells Fargo Investment Institute shifted their view on the sector from neutral to favorable, citing its underperformance against the S&P 500 and its durable outlook supported by the AI buildout. The firm’s global investment strategy team said information...
Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images Introduction Last week, the entire nation and the market expected US President Donald Trump to de-escalate the Iran war. That did not happen. On Saturday, Trump wrote in a social media post , saying, “Time is running out—48 hours before all hell will rain down on them,” as the war enters its fifth week and Iran continues to reject US demands. In order to avert a situati...
Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images Introduction Last week, the entire nation and the market expected US President Donald Trump to de-escalate the Iran war. That did not happen. On Saturday, Trump wrote in a social media post , saying, “Time is running out—48 hours before all hell will rain down on them,” as the war enters its fifth week and Iran continues to reject US demands. In order to avert a situation where the US hits Iran’s power plants on Tuesday, which would result in a dramatic escalation in the war and oil prices, the two countries and regional mediators are negotiating a potential 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for ending the war. These latest discussions are centered on a two-phased deal, where the first phase would be a 45-day ceasefire to allow further negotiations, and the second phase would be a deal to end the war. With the US 10-year Treasury yields climbing as high as 4.4% mid-last week before closing at 4.35% for the week, along with oil prices measured by Brent crude ( CO1:COM ) climbing 1.6% for the week to $108/barrel, the markets are starting to price in a “Trump risk premium” as policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions rise, according to economist Robin Brooks. However, the way I see it, even with $100+ per barrel of oil prices, the US economy won’t likely enter a recession for reasons I will explain below. I also believe that with midterm elections now just 8 months away, a prolonged war with higher energy prices and rising interest rates is not in President Trump’s best interests, increasing the likelihood of a faster resolution to the Iran war over the next several weeks. The US Economy Is Well Positioned To Handle $100+ Oil Prices First, the energy intensity in the US has been declining, reflecting improvements in energy efficiency and structural changes in the economy, as you can see below. The energy intensity is a measure of the amount of energy used to produce a unit of economic input. Based on analysis from Capital Economics...
sankai Vahan Janjigian, chief investment officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, said he remains optimistic about the near-term health of the U.S. economy despite mounting inflationary pressures. “The economy is still doing well enough that I’m not that concerned about a recession in the immediate future,” the strategist said in an interview with CNBC. However, Janjigian warned that the combinatio...
sankai Vahan Janjigian, chief investment officer at Greenwich Wealth Management, said he remains optimistic about the near-term health of the U.S. economy despite mounting inflationary pressures. “The economy is still doing well enough that I’m not that concerned about a recession in the immediate future,” the strategist said in an interview with CNBC. However, Janjigian warned that the combination of tariffs and elevated oil prices ( CO1:COM ), ( CL1:COM ) is creating a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. He noted that these factors could drive both core and headline inflation higher, putting the central bank in “a more difficult place than it was before.” Rather than cutting rates, Janjigian believes “an interest rate hike at this point is going to be more likely.” The wealth manager has been using the recent surge in oil prices ( CO1:COM ), ( CL1:COM ) as an opportunity to take profits on energy holdings. Janjigian disclosed that he trimmed positions in the XLE energy ETF ( XLE ) and Murphy Oil ( MUR ). While he expects oil prices to eventually decline, he does not see them returning to prewar levels, predicting they will “settle somewhere in the 80s to 90s.” To hedge against a potential economic slowdown, Janjigian is shifting toward defensive, dividend-paying stocks. He is currently adding positions in Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ) and The J. M. Smucker Co. ( SJM ), which he views as resilient picks with high yields that are unlikely to be significantly affected by weaker economic conditions. The strategist continues to hold long-term income-generating positions in Verizon ( VZ ) and IBM ( IBM ), though he is not adding to those stakes at present. “They’ve done extremely well for me over the past few years,” Janjigian said, reaffirming his preference for dividend-paying equities. Despite the headwinds from inflation and uncertain Fed policy, Janjigian maintains an opportunistic approach to the current market environment. His strategy of trimming cyclical ...