Guido Mieth Rising inflation fueled by spiking energy prices will wipe out most of the economic benefits Americans expected from recent tax cuts, according to David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist. In an interview with CNBC, Mericle predicted that headline inflation would climb from the mid-twos to approximately 4% within just a couple of months, as consumer prices rose 3.3% year-over...
Guido Mieth Rising inflation fueled by spiking energy prices will wipe out most of the economic benefits Americans expected from recent tax cuts, according to David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist. In an interview with CNBC, Mericle predicted that headline inflation would climb from the mid-twos to approximately 4% within just a couple of months, as consumer prices rose 3.3% year-over-year in March—the highest reading since April 2024—while consumer sentiment hit its lowest level on record. The surge in costs is directly undermining the fiscal relief many households anticipated. Mericle noted that Goldman Sachs had expected real income growth to exceed 2% this year, partly due to tax cuts reaching their maximum impact around now. However, “higher gasoline prices ( XB1:COM ), higher inflation will negate the better part of that tax cut boost,” he said, adding that real income is now projected to grow at roughly 1.5% for the year instead. The sharp decline in consumer confidence reflects how sensitive American households are to fluctuations at the gas pump. “Consumer sentiment tends to be very responsive to gasoline prices,” Mericle explained, noting that while energy prices have moved very quickly, other prices in the economy will adjust more gradually. Goldman Sachs has raised its core inflation forecast for the year by 3/10th of a percentage point. Mericle pointed to early signs of energy costs passing through to consumer prices, particularly in airfares, though he expects the broader economic pass-through to unfold more slowly than the initial headline spike. On the labor front, Mericle does not anticipate much upward pressure on wages from the current inflation environment. “Wage growth has been coming down for the last few years as the labor markets rebalanced, and the labor market has been fairly stable recently,” he said. Despite the shifting economic landscape, Goldman Sachs still expects two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. However, Mericle ...
Dow (DOW) declared a quarterly dividend of 35 cents per share, payable June 12, 2026, to shareholders of record on May 29, 2026. This marks the 459th consecutive dividend paid by the Company or its affiliates since 1912. AZZ (AZZ) has authorized a fourth quarter cash dividend i
Dow (DOW) declared a quarterly dividend of 35 cents per share, payable June 12, 2026, to shareholders of record on May 29, 2026. This marks the 459th consecutive dividend paid by the Company or its affiliates since 1912. AZZ (AZZ) has authorized a fourth quarter cash dividend i
Stock in Madison Square Garden Sports ( MSGS )—owner of the New York Knicks and Rangers, among other sports teams—rose nearly 4% Friday morning after it was upgraded to Buy at Seaport Research Partners, ahead of a potential spin-off of the flagship teams later in the summer. MSG Sports underwent a seasonal appreciation before the Knicks and Rangers started their seasons, but a "vast trading discou...
Stock in Madison Square Garden Sports ( MSGS )—owner of the New York Knicks and Rangers, among other sports teams—rose nearly 4% Friday morning after it was upgraded to Buy at Seaport Research Partners, ahead of a potential spin-off of the flagship teams later in the summer. MSG Sports underwent a seasonal appreciation before the Knicks and Rangers started their seasons, but a "vast trading discount vs. intrinsic value" needs a new look from the market, analyst David Joyce said. "While a unique, punitive tax code impact that starts in 2027 could open up the aggregate of the two companies into more tax expense, the separation could, at the same time, facilitate a minority shareholder investment (which could offset many years of that incremental tax expense)," Joyce wrote. That minority investment is a "significant enough catalyst" for the shares, but a logical extension of the new tax (part of an expanded scope of covered employees from 2021's American Rescue Plan Act) could end up with a privatization of both the teams, he noted. The MSGS board apparently felt the incremental tax expense would be more than offset by highlighting the value of each team, Joyce wrote. "The spin enhances the possibility of raising capital, and makes minority stake sales easier, as there are two distinct teams' business models, which makes for a clearer investment vehicle," he said. MSGS stock is up 29% year-to-date and has risen more than 55% over the past six months. More on Madison Square Garden Sports Madison Square Garden: A Potential Spin-Off And A Vanishing Discount Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Madison Square Garden Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Madison Square Garden Historical earnings data for Madison Square Garden
Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic on Friday flagged an unusually extreme selloff in software stocks relative to U.S. semiconductor ( SMH ) and memory names ( DRAM ), suggesting a short-term bounce may be overdue. In a post on X, Kolanovic described the last three days of divergence as “so statistically extreme” that it likely needs to mean-revert. He flo...
Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic on Friday flagged an unusually extreme selloff in software stocks relative to U.S. semiconductor ( SMH ) and memory names ( DRAM ), suggesting a short-term bounce may be overdue. In a post on X, Kolanovic described the last three days of divergence as “so statistically extreme” that it likely needs to mean-revert. He floated a tactical pair trade: long software via the beaten-down iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ), down 30% year-to-date, and short SanDisk ( SNDK ) as shares are up roughly 260% so far this year. Software’s relative performance versus semis has collapsed to its weakest level since at least 2014, according to a Zerohedge chart, a sign that the recent rotation—driven in large part by lingering fears about AI disruption—has become unusually stretched. Zerohedge IGV top 10 holdings: Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ), Seeking Alpha Quant system rating: 3.48, Hold Palantir Technologies Inc. ( PLTR ): 3.39, Hold Oracle Corporation ( ORCL ): 3.36, Hold AppLovin Corporation ( APP ): 4.22, Buy ServiceNow, Inc. ( NOW ): 3.16, Hold Salesforce, Inc. ( CRM ): 3.08, Hold CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. ( CRWD ): 3.05, Hold Adobe Inc. ( ADBE ): 3.06, Hold Intuit Inc. ( INTU ): 2.74, Hold Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ( PANW ): 2.77, Hold SMH top 10 holdings: Nvidia ( NVDA ), Quant system rating: 3.48, Hold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ): 3.49, Hold Broadcom ( AVGO ): 3.49, Hold ASML Holding N.V. ( ASML ): 3.47, Hold KLA Corp. ( KLAC ): 3.43, Hold Analog Devices ( ADI ): 3.46, Hold Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ): 4.69, Strong Buy Texas Instruments ( TXN ): 4.59, Strong Buy Lam Research ( LRCX ): 3.49, Hold Applied Materials ( AMAT ): 3.48, Hold More on the Markets Stocks From Liberation Day To Iran War IGV: We Could See A Near-Term Capitulation Recent AI Funding Problems Should Worry You Commodities to lead 'anything but bonds' trade through 2020s - BofA’s Hartnett Sof...
Guido Mieth/DigitalVision via Getty Images Since the start of this year, things have not gone exceptionally well for shareholders of Preferred Bank ( PFBC ). Although profitability increased for the business in its most recent quarter, the share price has pulled back 7.7% since I reaffirmed it as a "Buy" candidate in early January. By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6.2% over that same period. The...
Guido Mieth/DigitalVision via Getty Images Since the start of this year, things have not gone exceptionally well for shareholders of Preferred Bank ( PFBC ). Although profitability increased for the business in its most recent quarter, the share price has pulled back 7.7% since I reaffirmed it as a "Buy" candidate in early January. By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6.2% over that same period. The good news is that, since I originally turned bullish on the company in July of 2023, the stock has risen 49.7%. That is above the 41.5% jump that the market enjoyed. So at least, over the long haul, my call on it is paying off. The most recent data available does show some signs of weakness, especially when it comes to net interest margin. Having said that, asset quality remains robust, and the stock price looks cheap relative to earnings. I will say that it's not as attractive as it used to be. However, I don't yet see a reason why I would downgrade it to a "Hold" at this time. Instead, reaffirming it as a soft "Buy," even though the market is currently moving against me on it, seems to make the most sense. Preferred Bank Isn't Prime For A Downgrade Author - SEC EDGAR Data As I mentioned at the start of this article, one of the downsides to Preferred Bank as of late has been its net interest margin. In the chart above, you can see that for the final quarter of 2025, this metric was 3.74%. That's down from the 4.06% reading that we got a year earlier. With many banks that I have looked at lately, we have actually seen the opposite transpire. This is because, even though you would think that declining interest rates might be harmful for banks, they can actually prove beneficial in the short run if they are structured appropriately. Interest-bearing deposits are overwhelmingly floating-rate obligations. So as interest rates drop, financial institutions that have deposits can slash how much they are paying depositors. By comparison, many assets adjust lower more slowly, espec...
Software stocks were hammered again on Friday amid growing investor fear that AI system builders OpenAI and Anthropic will undermine their core businesses.
Software stocks were hammered again on Friday amid growing investor fear that AI system builders OpenAI and Anthropic will undermine their core businesses.
The party’s talk of visa bans for countries seeking reparative justice is not just undemocratic – it displays staggering ignorance about geopolitics On 29 November 1781, Capt Luke Collingwood faced a decision. He was in command of a ship called the Zong , which departed Accra with 442 Africans to be sold into slavery. However, the crew of the Zong kept getting lost on the way to Jamaica. Now their...
The party’s talk of visa bans for countries seeking reparative justice is not just undemocratic – it displays staggering ignorance about geopolitics On 29 November 1781, Capt Luke Collingwood faced a decision. He was in command of a ship called the Zong , which departed Accra with 442 Africans to be sold into slavery. However, the crew of the Zong kept getting lost on the way to Jamaica. Now their overcrowded “cargo” was ridden with disease and dehydration. Closing in on their destination, they realised that if these Africans died onshore, this would be a loss for the shipowners. But if they were “lost at sea”, the insurers would cover the cost. Soon, more than 130 people were thrown overboard, starting with the less commercially valuable women and children. At the resulting court case two years later, the main area of dispute was whether this action invalidated the financial payout. None of the city of London’s legal and financial institutions involved considered whether the mass drowning constituted a crime. This episode from Britain’s inhumane and inglorious history of slavery came to mind this week when I read that in response to a recent, well-supported UN resolution recognising the historic crime of slavery, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK said it would deny all UK visas to people from countries seeking slavery reparations from Britain. Countries such as Nigeria, Jamaica and Ghana, from where Zong set sail all those years ago. Dr Kojo Koram is professor of law and political economy at Loughborough University. His latest book, The Next Fix , is out on 4 June Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here . Continue reading...
Ruling by state’s top court comes as 34 other states are pursuing similar cases against Meta in federal court Meta Platforms must face a lawsuit by the Massachusetts attorney general alleging that as the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, it deliberately designed social media features to addict young users, the state’s top court ruled on Friday. The ruling by the Massachusetts supreme judic...
Ruling by state’s top court comes as 34 other states are pursuing similar cases against Meta in federal court Meta Platforms must face a lawsuit by the Massachusetts attorney general alleging that as the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, it deliberately designed social media features to addict young users, the state’s top court ruled on Friday. The ruling by the Massachusetts supreme judicial court marked the first time a state high court has considered whether a federal law that generally shields internet companies from lawsuits over content posted by their users would also bar claims that companies like Meta knowingly addicted young users. Continue reading...
President Donald Trump singled out Palantir Technologies Inc. for its “great war fighting capabilities and equipment” in a Truth Social Post on Friday. “Just ask our enemies,” Trump said in the post. Trump’s tweet came minutes after a segment on Fox Business discussing Michael Burry ’s bear case against Palantir, in which the money manager made famous by The Big Short has argued that rival Anthrop...
President Donald Trump singled out Palantir Technologies Inc. for its “great war fighting capabilities and equipment” in a Truth Social Post on Friday. “Just ask our enemies,” Trump said in the post. Trump’s tweet came minutes after a segment on Fox Business discussing Michael Burry ’s bear case against Palantir, in which the money manager made famous by The Big Short has argued that rival Anthropic PBC is winning the race for enterprise AI spending. Trump’s social media post echoed comments made by guest Michael Lee, who was championing the role Palantir’s technology played in the raid to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro . Last month, the Pentagon notified Anthropic that it had determined its products pose a risk to the US supply chain, after the startup demanded assurances that its AI wouldn’t be used for mass surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons. Anthropic is challenging the Pentagon designation in court. Palantir was set up in the early 2000s by Thiel and four other co-founders, including Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp , and secured early investment from In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s investment arm. The company relies on the US government for the largest share of its revenue, with contracts worth close to $900 million with the Pentagon last year, along with smaller contracts for ICE, as well as Treasury and other government agencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Government. The Pentagon is planning to make Palantir’s Maven Smart System a so-called program of record, which will provide “will provide the stable funding and resourcing necessary” for development, integration and for commanders to fight and win wars, Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Weinberg said in the memo. Read More: Pentagon to Push AI Battlefield Integration with Focus on Maven The US military already uses the Maven digital mission control platform in every combatant command, or regional theater. The system provides a digital map display of battlefields, helps identify an...
Think "Weekends" Rather Than "Weeks" By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy As another volatile week comes to an end, investors and market participants appear to be clinging to the hope that the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which began on Wednesday, will not unravel entirely – at least until a direct, face‑to‑face exchange and clarification of key demands can take plac...
Think "Weekends" Rather Than "Weeks" By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy As another volatile week comes to an end, investors and market participants appear to be clinging to the hope that the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which began on Wednesday, will not unravel entirely – at least until a direct, face‑to‑face exchange and clarification of key demands can take place during the planned talks in Islamabad this weekend. Near‑dated Brent crude edged up by $2 to $97, equity markets posted modest declines in Europe, whilst US stocks rose. European bond yields rose by 3–5 basis points, as UST yields dropped a few. This suggests that the powerful risk‑on move seen on Wednesday has been dented but not broken. Experts continue to stress the fragility of the ceasefire, but markets are showing slightly greater confidence than the underlying geopolitical reality might warrant. Compared with the first day of the ceasefire – which saw Israel launch its largest‑ever strike on Hezbollah, the UAE carry out a large‑scale operation against Iran’s oil and petrochemical assets in the Gulf, and Iran respond with ballistic missile and drone attacks – yesterday’s developments were notably more contained. There were no confirmed direct US‑Iran strikes. That said, Hezbollah did fire rockets into northern Israel, and Iran formally accused the United States of violating the ceasefire due to Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. Kuwait also accused Iran and its proxies of launching drone attacks. Crucially, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only a handful of Iran‑linked and/or Chinese vessels transiting the waterway . Iran indicated that it would allow no more than 15 ships per day to pass under the ceasefire agreement – hardly meaningful given that an estimated 800-900 vessels are still waiting to exit the strait. More fundamentally, the move underscores Iran’s effective control over the waterway, a message reinforced by the...
temizyurek/E+ via Getty Images McEwen Inc. ( MUX ) is a fascinating investment story that offers a multi-bagger opportunity over the next 5 years. The crown jewel of this company is its flagship Los Azules project in Argentina, the 10th largest copper project under development worldwide and the main focus of today's article. MUX also has an unremarkable gold business, unloved by the market, which ...
temizyurek/E+ via Getty Images McEwen Inc. ( MUX ) is a fascinating investment story that offers a multi-bagger opportunity over the next 5 years. The crown jewel of this company is its flagship Los Azules project in Argentina, the 10th largest copper project under development worldwide and the main focus of today's article. MUX also has an unremarkable gold business, unloved by the market, which nevertheless offers misunderstood upside. The core pitch of the investment thesis for McEwen ( MUX ) is as follows: at current prices ($21/share, $1.3 billion market cap), you are buying the copper project at a bargain valuation and getting MUX's gold business for free. The multiple sources of upside to the copper story alone could make this a home run, and the gold business becomes interesting once you understand Rob McEwen's playbook, who built Goldcorp from $50 million to $10 billion and is looking to repeat the same strategy today. While there are certainly execution risks, the margin of safety is excellent, and the numerous stock catalysts and various credible sources of long-term upside make this a very asymmetric risk-reward proposition, so long as you agree with the bullish consensus view for long-term gold and copper prices. Los Azules alone makes MUX a Buy Before we begin, a quick word on the copper macro backdrop. Global copper demand is projected to rise 50% to 42 Mt by 2040 , driven by four growth vectors: energy transition and electrification (EVs, grid, renewables), AI/data center infrastructure, traditional industrial demand growth (largely from Asia), and defense modernization. Meanwhile, supply is structurally constrained, as the pipeline is thin and new mines take an average of 17 years to be built, in no small part due to environmental concerns, social opposition, permitting delays, and shifting regulatory dynamics. As a result, most investment banks are long-term bullish on copper and see the market moving into a structural deficit by the end of this de...
The SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (QUS) is seeing unusually high volume in afternoon trading Friday, with over 233,000 shares traded versus three month average volume of about 32,000. Shares of QUS were off about 0.3% on the day. Components of that ETF with the highest vo
The SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (QUS) is seeing unusually high volume in afternoon trading Friday, with over 233,000 shares traded versus three month average volume of about 32,000. Shares of QUS were off about 0.3% on the day. Components of that ETF with the highest vo
In trading on Friday, the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) is outperforming other ETFs, up about 2.7% on the day. Components of that ETF showing particular strength include shares of Astera Labs (ALAB), up about 13.3% and shares of Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO), up
In trading on Friday, the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) is outperforming other ETFs, up about 2.7% on the day. Components of that ETF showing particular strength include shares of Astera Labs (ALAB), up about 13.3% and shares of Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO), up