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Rouzes/E+ via Getty Images While I have certain affection toward smart-beta strategies designed to outthink the market, over the years, I have multiple times illustrated that in most cases, sophistication does not beat simplicity, meaning strategies built around market-cap weighting mostly trounce those that experiment with meticulous factor screening, incessant rebalancing, creative weighting sch...
Rouzes/E+ via Getty Images While I have certain affection toward smart-beta strategies designed to outthink the market, over the years, I have multiple times illustrated that in most cases, sophistication does not beat simplicity, meaning strategies built around market-cap weighting mostly trounce those that experiment with meticulous factor screening, incessant rebalancing, creative weighting schemes, etc., despite actually not putting much effort into it at all. So I believe that with the new underlying index in place, the First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund ETF ( QQEW ), which I previously discussed in 2021, has little to no potential to outmatch the total return of the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF ( QQQ ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF ( QQQM ) in the current market conditions (assuming the gradual decline in inflation, at least two interest rate cuts in 2026, and no macro shocks) , so the Hold rating is the most optimal one. What has influenced my opinion? First, it is the Nasdaq-100 Select Equal Weight™ Index's ( NDXSE:IND ) backtested performance (there are multiple nuances here, and I will be giving them attention shortly), with its quite unsurprisingly lower standard deviation than that of the NASDAQ 100-Index ( NDX ) yet a weaker annualized price return. Second, it is the factor mix of the QQEW portfolio, which is lighter in growth compared to that of QQQM. Nevertheless, I surmise that QQEW might still offer some minor benefit in terms of risk characteristics (i.e., probably eke out higher risk-adjusted returns than QQQ and QQQM over the medium to long term). And there is still something to appreciate about its current factor mix, mainly its exposure to the quality factor. All of this to say, my opinion is that for investors seeking to maximize the total return utilizing the full potential of longer-duration equities, it would be a good idea to give QQEW a cold shoulder and just stick with QQQ (or QQQM, as a lower-cost alternative). Now, without furt...
(RTTNews) - European stocks were muted on Monday as Iran-U.S. tensions escalated and traders looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the week for direction. U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of 100 percent tariffs on Canada, U.S. government shutdown fears and caution ahead of big tech earnings due this week also kept investors on edge. The pan European Stoxx 600 was ...
(RTTNews) - European stocks were muted on Monday as Iran-U.S. tensions escalated and traders looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the week for direction. U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of 100 percent tariffs on Canada, U.S. government shutdown fears and caution ahead of big tech earnings due this week also kept investors on edge. The pan European Stoxx 600 was marginally higher at 608.48 after ending 0.1 percent lower on Friday to snap a five-week winning run - its longest since May. The German DAX and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 were marginally lower, while France's CAC 40 slid 0.2 percent. German automotive and industrial supplier Stabilus rallied 2.5 percent after Q1 cash flow more than tripled despite lower revenue. Fnac Darty shares soared 17 percent. The French retailer said it has received an offer from EP Group, a company controlled by Daniel Kretinsky. Food giant Danone plummeted 5 percent after announcing it was recalling specific baby formula batches in targeted markets. Budget airline Ryanair Holdings fell nearly 2 percent after reporting a drop in third-quarter profits. Real estate company Aroundtown climbed 5.3 percent as it announced plans to buy back its own shares for up to 250 million euros during the current year. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
After weeks in which the bitcoin BTC $ 87,767.12 price has been constrained mainly between $85,000 and $95,000, the crypto market may be thrown a reason to break out of the doldrums on Wednesday, when the Federal Open Markets Committee sets U.S. interest rates. May, that is. Not will. The consensus, more than 97%, is for the Fed to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, according to the CME's Fedwatch ...
After weeks in which the bitcoin BTC $ 87,767.12 price has been constrained mainly between $85,000 and $95,000, the crypto market may be thrown a reason to break out of the doldrums on Wednesday, when the Federal Open Markets Committee sets U.S. interest rates. May, that is. Not will. The consensus, more than 97%, is for the Fed to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool. As ever, what's said at the post-decision press conference may be more influential than the decision itself. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . U.S. earning season picks up. While there are no major crypto companies scheduled to report, investors are likely to keep an eye on electric-car maker Tesla (TSLA) and what it says about its stash of bitcoin. The company has more than 11,500 BTC, ranking it the 13th largest corporate holder, according BitcoinTreasuries.net. Bybit, ranked the second-largest crypto exchange by CoinGecko, is also likely to be in the news. CEO Ben Zhou will unveil the company's road map for 2026 on Thursday. Almost one year ago, Bybit was targeted by North Korean hackers who got away with about $1.4 billion worth of ether ETH $ 2,891.61 and staked ether. What to Watch Crypto Jan. 28, 1 p.m.: Hedera Network to undergo a mainnet upgrade expected to take about 40 minutes to complete. Jan. 29, 3 a.m.: Bybit CEO Ben Zhou to unveil the exchange's 2026 roadmap in a keynote titled “BUIDLing a New Financial Era.” Macro Jan. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. durable goods orders MoM for November (Prev. -2.2%) Jan. 26, 10:30 a.m.: U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index for January (Prev. -10.9) Jan. 27: U.S. ADP employment change weekly (Prev. 8K) Jan. 27: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price YoY for Nov. (Prev. 1.3%); MoM (Prev. -0.3%) Jan. 27, 6:50 p.m.: Bank...
France will hold the first meeting of Group of Seven finance officials under its presidency on Tuesday, with discussions expected to focus on securing supplies of critical raw materials and continued support for Ukraine. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure initially planned to hold a video conference last week after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs against European countries over Gr...
France will hold the first meeting of Group of Seven finance officials under its presidency on Tuesday, with discussions expected to focus on securing supplies of critical raw materials and continued support for Ukraine. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure initially planned to hold a video conference last week after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs against European countries over Greenland. But the meeting was delayed, with officials citing scheduling constraints linked to the World Economic Forum in Davos. The finance ministry said in a statement Monday that all G-7 ministers would participate in the call and that officials from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are also invited. Paris assumed the rotating presidency of the G-7 at the start of January, but has so far given little indication of its priorities. Earlier in January, with France’s presidency already underway, the US convened ministers from the group and a handful of others to Washington to discuss how to counter China’s dominance in rare earths. The French finance ministry said Monday that value chains for strategic raw materials would again be a subject of talks, as well as support for Ukraine and “reabsorbing global imbalances and creating a new framework for international partnerships.” France Delays G-7 Finance Meeting to Discuss US Tariff Threats Macron’s Blue Aviators Spur 70% Surge in Tiny Italian Firm Trump’s Greenland Threat Is Stirring Europe’s Deepest Divisions
To sustain the current A-share rally, regulators must accelerate institutional reforms and curb speculative excess. All eyes are on the trajectory of China’s A-share market. At a recent working conference, the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized that while the capital market is generally stabilizing and improving, it continues to face complex challenges with intertwined internal and ...
To sustain the current A-share rally, regulators must accelerate institutional reforms and curb speculative excess. All eyes are on the trajectory of China’s A-share market. At a recent working conference, the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized that while the capital market is generally stabilizing and improving, it continues to face complex challenges with intertwined internal and external risks. The regulatory body called for “prioritizing stability” and “resolutely preventing drastic market fluctuations,” while outlining a push to create a market ecosystem defined by “long-term capital for long-term investment.”
近两年来，关于 AI 经济学最引人注目的论战，实际上是一场关于“速度”的博弈。关于AI泡沫的讨论，最终都会还原到，「AI 多久会反映到 GDP/生产率上」这个问题上。 诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Daron Acemoglu 在 2024 年抛出了一盆冷水。他通过对当时 AI 能力（主要是 GPT-3.5 时代）的实证观察，计算出 AI 对未来十年全要素生产率（TFP）的增长贡献可能仅为微不足道的 0.0...
近两年来，关于 AI 经济学最引人注目的论战，实际上是一场关于“速度”的博弈。关于AI泡沫的讨论，最终都会还原到，「AI 多久会反映到 GDP/生产率上」这个问题上。 诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Daron Acemoglu 在 2024 年抛出了一盆冷水。他通过对当时 AI 能力（主要是 GPT-3.5 时代）的实证观察，计算出 AI 对未来十年全要素生产率（TFP）的增长贡献可能仅为微不足道的 0.07% 到 1%。他的判断主要立足于 AI 只能自动化很少一部分人类任务，且很难在短时间内大幅降低成本。 但在Agent全面接管工作流、推理模型层出不穷的当下，Acemoglu基于Chat时代的观察显得有点落伍了。 在他的论点之外，转折派、奇点飞升派等多个流派对AI、对GDP年增长的影响预测从0.07%到10%，分布在极其广阔的光谱上。 这些预期差距很大程度上源于他们对AI技术本身发展速度的理解差别。AI发展停滞、Agentic AI成功落地，以及能够自我迭代的AI进入研发流程，意味着完全不同的增长轨迹。 而斯坦福大学商学院经济学家 Charles I. Jones 在 2026 年 1 月发布的最新论文《人工智能与我们的经济未来》（A.I. and Our Economic Future），为这场争论引入了一个超越具体技术参数的宏观框架。Jones没有纠结于模型能力的范围，而是通过数学化的生产函数模型模拟了AI在不同场景下的可能。他认为， AI 确实拥有引爆经济的潜力，但这个引爆过程将被经济系统中的「薄弱环节」无情地拉长。 和过往的电气、互联网革命一样，这很可能也将是一个被驯服的奇点时代。 01 AI对经济影响的三种叙事 关于 AI 将在多大程度上提升长期 GDP 增长率，学术界目前分裂为三种截然不同的叙事。 分歧不仅源于对技术能力的判断不同，也源于他们看待经济机器运转方式的根本差异。 渐进主义视角：任务模型的摩擦 (Acemoglu) Daron Acemoglu 是这一流派的代表。在 2024-2025 年的系列研究中，他主要通过 霍尔顿定理（Hulten’s Theorem）作为依据进行论证 。 霍尔顿定理 的推导逻辑非常直接：AI 对总生产力的贡献，大约等于「受 AI 影响的 GDP 份额」X「这些任务的成本节约率」。根据Acemoglu的测算，即便假设 AI 能影...