Getty Images There’s always another recession beyond the horizon. At least, that’s been historically true. While I believe it still is true, it’s been a long time since we’ve had a recession outside of the COVID pandemic, which obviously was a rather unique situation. Like many others, I’ve been keeping my eye out for potential warning signs that a recession may be coming, and I believe Netflix ( ...
Getty Images There’s always another recession beyond the horizon. At least, that’s been historically true. While I believe it still is true, it’s been a long time since we’ve had a recession outside of the COVID pandemic, which obviously was a rather unique situation. Like many others, I’ve been keeping my eye out for potential warning signs that a recession may be coming, and I believe Netflix ( NFLX ) could act as a sort of canary in the coal mine. While I remain bullish on Netflix, for now, it’d also be one of the stocks I’d likely drop pretty quickly if I believed the economy might undergo a contraction. This is due to the fact that a Netflix subscription is discretionary spending, and perhaps more crucially, it’s relatively easy to cancel service. Netflix is a company I’ve underestimated in the past. Once Netflix started to move aggressively into producing its own content, I figured margins would come under pressure and rather than being valued as a tech stock, it should be valued as a media company like Paramount Skydance. Traditional media companies have tighter margins. Alas, NFLX has proven me wrong on that front and has continued to maintain high profitability. I do wonder if that dynamic could someday change. I also have concerns over growth, which I’ll discuss later. I rated Netflix as a buy last year and the stock quickly soared for several months after my article was published. For better or worse, the stock has since come back down to earth. Netflix is the type of company that I’d be tempted to see if it rises by say 20%. I continue to rate Netflix as a buy as it remains the dominant streaming platform and forthcoming subscription rate hikes should benefit the company’s coffers. Netflix: A Canary In the Consumer Consumption Economy Consumers tighten belts when they’re under financial duress. During the Great Recession, for example, sitdown restaurants often saw rather dramatic declines. Value-oriented fast food restaurants, like McDonald’s, enjoy stea...
Amazon must negotiate with a labor union representing some 5,000 workers at a company warehouse on Staten Island, the National Labor Relations Board ruled on Wednesday. The ruling means Amazon is required to meet with representatives of the Amazon Labor Union, which formed in 2022 and has been seeking to negotiate with Amazon over pay, working conditions and other matters. The union was initial...
Amazon must negotiate with a labor union representing some 5,000 workers at a company warehouse on Staten Island, the National Labor Relations Board ruled on Wednesday. The ruling means Amazon is required to meet with representatives of the Amazon Labor Union, which formed in 2022 and has been seeking to negotiate with Amazon over pay, working conditions and other matters. The union was initially formed independently but has since aligned with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.
Alexey_Fedoren Wall Street finished largely unchanged on Thursday as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty against resilient economic signals, with market sentiment hinging on clarity surrounding the Middle East conflict. “Today was another day where the market tried to assess just how serious the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become, especially in light of President Trump’s plans to ...
Alexey_Fedoren Wall Street finished largely unchanged on Thursday as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty against resilient economic signals, with market sentiment hinging on clarity surrounding the Middle East conflict. “Today was another day where the market tried to assess just how serious the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become, especially in light of President Trump’s plans to maintain the war for a few more weeks,” said Seeking Alpha analyst Leo Nelissen . “Interestingly, while we saw weakness, investors seem to be convinced that a way will be found to let ships pass to avoid supply chain breakdowns, especially as the situation in refined products in areas like Southeast Asia is getting dire.” Nelissen added that markets remain in a holding pattern until more concrete policy direction emerges. “Once the market gets a clear signal that goes beyond a social media post from the president, I think we’ll go back to focusing on growth acceleration, fully supported by positive numbers from indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index.” The Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) edged up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) also gained 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) slipped 0.1%. Market Tracking ETFs: ( DIA ), ( DDM ), ( DOG ), ( DXD ), ( SDOW ), ( SPY ), ( VOO ), ( IVV ), ( RSP ), ( SSO ), ( UPRO ), ( SH ), ( SDS ), ( SPXU ), ( QQQ ), ( QQQM ), ( TQQQ ), ( QID ), and ( SQQQ ). More on markets ETFs tied to Tesla slide as the EV maker's delivery miss pressures stock Software layoffs rise, but broader U.S. job churn dominates trends, Apollo says Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fall in past week Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs add OpenAI exposure as ChatGPT boom grows Wells Fargo lowers its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,800 to 7,300
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -100 (-2.99%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26 ) closed down -11 (-0.45%). Cocoa prices retreated on Thursday on concerns about weak chocolate demand. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, early estimates for chocolate candy sales this Easter holiday, a prime...
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -100 (-2.99%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26 ) closed down -11 (-0.45%). Cocoa prices retreated on Thursday on concerns about weak chocolate demand. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, early estimates for chocolate candy sales this Easter holiday, a prime...
SpaceX filed for an IPO that could come as soon as June. Seeking a record $75 billion raise, the company is valued at $1.25 trillion after its xAI merger.
SpaceX filed for an IPO that could come as soon as June. Seeking a record $75 billion raise, the company is valued at $1.25 trillion after its xAI merger.
Gearstd/iStock via Getty Images The entire world is worried about the energy shortage provoked by the Middle East conflict, and our investment portfolios are starting to feel some pain. Even though we are not in a technical bear market (at least a 20% drop from all time high), the main stock market indexes have crossed the -10% threshold and the recent news doesn’t bode well. How deep will we fall...
Gearstd/iStock via Getty Images The entire world is worried about the energy shortage provoked by the Middle East conflict, and our investment portfolios are starting to feel some pain. Even though we are not in a technical bear market (at least a 20% drop from all time high), the main stock market indexes have crossed the -10% threshold and the recent news doesn’t bode well. How deep will we fall? An interesting indicator that few people know about The Middle East conflict is escalating and the situation is far from being under control. Anyway, in this article I want to talk less about geopolitics and more about technical analysis. In particular, I want to show you an indicator that is often overlooked but it has been pretty reliable over the past three decades. The reason why I consider it reliable is not only that it was able to predict every recession over the last 29 years, but it has never provided a false positive signal. That’s rather uncommon, in fact, reliable indicators like Yield Curve Inversion, LEI indicator and Sahm Rule failed to be accurate in 2022-2023. They all predicted a recession in those years, and even though the stock market fell significantly, we didn’t experience the much-awaited recession. The indicator that I am going to show you didn’t fall in that trap. Here is how it is built: It is a ratio. In the numerator we have the 3-Month Treasury Bill Yield. In the denominator we have the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. Simply put, it is the Junk Bond Spread, the interest rate paid by companies with a low credit rating minus the risk-free interest rate. When this ratio goes up, it is a positive signal for the economy. It means that the Junk Bond Spread is narrowing, which is typical of a risk-on macroeconomic environment. It might also mean that the economy is growing fast, and to prevent an overheating, the Fed starts raising short-term interest rates. If interest rates rise faster than the widening Junk Bond Spread, then ...
Latest data shows 209 cases recorded as assisted dying referred to CPS by police between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 31 this year Thirteen cases of suspected assisted dying are being considered by prosecutors in England and Wales, according to the latest data. Encouraging or assisting the suicide or attempted suicide of another person is against the law in England and Wales, under the Suicide Act 19...
Latest data shows 209 cases recorded as assisted dying referred to CPS by police between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 31 this year Thirteen cases of suspected assisted dying are being considered by prosecutors in England and Wales, according to the latest data. Encouraging or assisting the suicide or attempted suicide of another person is against the law in England and Wales, under the Suicide Act 1961. In the UK and Ireland, Samaritans can be contacted on freephone 116 123, or email jo@samaritans.org or jo@samaritans.ie . In the US, you can call or text the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988 or chat at 988lifeline.org . In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is 13 11 14. Other international helplines can be found at befrienders.org Continue reading...
From a chalk-and-cheese duo obsessed with custard creams to in-laws who didn’t get on until a family death – brace yourself for another journey of big feelings There is ice. A bear lopes across a vast white tundra, weaving footprints in the snow. Closeup of a snow leopard. Crisp crunch of boots in thick snow. Heavy breathing … Running … Screaming … Is it the latest Paul Greengrass thriller? No. Th...
From a chalk-and-cheese duo obsessed with custard creams to in-laws who didn’t get on until a family death – brace yourself for another journey of big feelings There is ice. A bear lopes across a vast white tundra, weaving footprints in the snow. Closeup of a snow leopard. Crisp crunch of boots in thick snow. Heavy breathing … Running … Screaming … Is it the latest Paul Greengrass thriller? No. The words “51 Days Earlier” appear. Volare starts playing. And now we’re in sunny Palermo, Sicily: the southern Italian city conquered more than any other in Europe. Where else could we be but at the starting line of Race Across the World? You know when a BBC series has gone stratospheric because the opening gets suitably hysterical and starts to think it’s a Bourne spin-off. And so it comes to pass with the sixth series of the BBC flagship show, now such a powerful harbinger of spring on these small isles that it has replaced daffodils. The premise, for the stubborn percent who haven’t succumbed, is simple and brilliant; a formula that, like the cometh of spring, will never get old. Continue reading...
SoFi Technologies公司推出了“大企业银行业务”（Big Business Banking）。这一新平台旨在让企业客户在单一受监管的银行基础设施内同时管理法币和加密货币业务。该产品允许公司使用传统货币或稳定币全天候持有存款、转账和结算交易，标志着SoFi向机构金融服务领域迈出更深入的一步。 该平台将SoFi的国家银行牌照和美联储接入权限与API驱动能力相结合，包括实时支付以及通过其S...
SoFi Technologies公司推出了“大企业银行业务”（Big Business Banking）。这一新平台旨在让企业客户在单一受监管的银行基础设施内同时管理法币和加密货币业务。该产品允许公司使用传统货币或稳定币全天候持有存款、转账和结算交易，标志着SoFi向机构金融服务领域迈出更深入的一步。 该平台将SoFi的国家银行牌照和美联储接入权限与API驱动能力相结合，包括实时支付以及通过其SoFiUSD稳定币支持数字资产发行。首批参与者包括Cumberland、BitGo、Galaxy和 万事达卡 等公司，表明该平台在加密原生机构和传统金融机构中都获得了初步认可。该系统预计将利用Solana及其他区块链网络。 此举也凸显了SoFi如何寻求与传统银行形成差异化。“传统银行通常仍然按照周一至周五、朝九晚五的模式运营，”首席执行官安东尼·诺托表示，“SoFi大企业银行业务正在改变这一现状——它将国家特许银行的实力和监管基础与企业实时转移和管理资金或数字资产所需的速度、规模和灵活性结合在一起。” 责任编辑：张俊 SF065