神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：2026年AI泡沫不会破，但神化会碎。这是从“实验室”转场“生意场”的关键年：营收看账本，技术看落地，胜负看执行力。文章来自编译。 2025 年是 AI 发展的大年：新模型层出不穷、编程智能体（coding agents）被广泛采用、企业投资呈爆发式增长，这些都构成了全年的主旋律。这也是自动驾驶汽车大放异彩的一年。Waymo 的周订单量翻了三倍，在多个新城市开启了无人驾驶运营，并开始提供高速公路服务。特斯拉也在奥斯汀和旧金山推出了无人驾驶出租车（robotaxi）服务。 那么 2026 年会带来什么？我们邀请了八位好友分享他们的预测，我们也自己补充了九条。我们为每一项预测都标注了置信度评分；90% 置信度的预测意味着在十次尝试中应该有九次是准确的。 我们并不认为 AI 是一个即将破裂的泡沫，但我们也不认为通用人工智能（AGI）的出现会立刻引发所谓的“一飞冲天”。相反，我们预计模型的能力将持续提升，但其对整个经济产生全面影响尚需时日。 1. 科技巨头的资本支出将突破 5000 亿美元 (75%) 预测人：Timothy B. Lee 2024 年，五大超大规模云服务商——谷歌、微软、亚马逊、Meta 和甲骨文——的资本支出总额为 2410 亿美元。而今年，这些公司的支出预计将超过 4000 亿美元。 这种投入的激增是许多人认为 AI 行业存在泡沫的主因。正如我们之前报道的那样，目前科技公司的投资占经济总量的比重，甚至超过了阿波罗计划或州际公路系统建设高峰期的投入比例。许多人认为，这种水平的支出根本无法持续。 但我并不认同。像马克·扎克伯格和萨提亚·纳德拉这样的行业领袖曾表示，他们建设这些数据中心并非为了应对虚无缥缈的未来需求，而是在全力赶工以满足客户当下的订单。美国企业界对 AI 充满热情，正以前所未有的规模为新型 AI 服务买单。 我不认为 2026 年科技巨头的资本支出增长会像 2025 年那样剧烈，但我预计它仍会保持增长，全年总额最终将突破 5000 亿美元。 2. OpenAI 和 Anthropic 都将实现 2026 年的营收目标 (80%) 预测人：Timothy B. Lee Anthropic 和 OpenAI 在 2025 年都取得了惊人的...

因利用在社交平台超10万粉丝的影响力非法荐股并实施反向交易，近日，财经大V金某被浙江证监局认定“抢帽子”操纵证券市场，被罚没合计超8300万元，并采取3年证券市场禁入措施。随着A股市场交投升温，近期，一批财经网红大V集中涌现，活跃在各个社交媒体，掀起阵阵声浪。其中不乏有真才实学者，为投资者提供了多元理财视角。但也有人鱼目混珠，打着“分享”“分析”旗号，实则是利用自身影响力设局布套，操纵市场、内幕交易。通过晒虚假仓位截图、发布胡编乱造的研判分析，诱导粉丝买入，一旦股价被推高，则反向出货获利，把粉丝当成提款机。大V荐股受追捧，背后也折射出投资者教育仍任重道远。当前，个人投资者仍是市场的主要参与者，部分人缺乏风险识别能力，对非法荐股的危害认知不足。此次金某的跌落，也给大家提了个醒：投资理财终究是门专业的学问，需要系统学习、理性分析，而不是靠追几个“股神”、听几句小道消息就能成功。面对说得天花乱坠的财经大V，多问一句为什么，多一些思考与研判，不轻易被迷了眼，谨慎理性决策，才是价值投资的长久之道。（经济日报）

Broadcom is an easy way to profit from the secular expansion of the AI market. As the artificial intelligence (AI) market expands, more companies are upgrading their data centers to handle the skyrocketing usage of AI applications. According to Fortune Business Insights, the global AI infrastructure market will expand at a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032. What's the best chip play on the AI infrastructure boom? One of the simplest ways to profit from that secular boom is through Broadcom (AVGO +0.14%), which produces custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for processing AI tasks. When installed at scale, these chips can process AI inference tasks at a more cost-efficient rate than Nvidia's (NVDA +1.67%) data center GPUs. Many hyperscalers -- including Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms -- are installing Broadcom's custom AI accelerators to reduce their dependence on Nvidia's data center GPUs. Broadcom also bundles those chips with its own networking switches, optical equipment, and infrastructure software to help those tech giants efficiently expand their data centers. In fiscal 2025 (which ended last November), Broadcom's AI chip revenue rose 65% to $20 billion, accounting for 31% of its top line and offsetting the slower growth of its non-AI chips and infrastructure software business. From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at CAGRs of 38% and 47%, respectively, as the AI market expands and its non-AI businesses stabilize in a warmer macro environment. Expand NASDAQ : AVGO Broadcom Today's Change ( 0.14 %) $ 0.45 Current Price $ 333.24 Key Data Points Market Cap $1.6T Day's Range $ 326.70 - $ 339.99 52wk Range $ 138.10 - $ 414.61 Volume 23M Avg Vol 30M Gross Margin 64.71 % Dividend Yield 0.73 % What are its upcoming catalysts? Broadcom expects to generate $60 billion to $90 billion in annualized AI chip revenues by the end of fiscal 2027, with most of that growth coming from just three hy...

Key Points Broadcom’s stock has surged 2,620% over the past decade. Its AI chip business is growing like a weed. It’s networking, optical, and infrastructure software segments complement that growth. 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom › As the artificial intelligence (AI) market expands, more companies are upgrading their data centers to handle the skyrocketing usage of AI applications. According to Fortune Business Insights, the global AI infrastructure market will expand at a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032. What's the best chip play on the AI infrastructure boom? One of the simplest ways to profit from that secular boom is through Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), which produces custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for processing AI tasks. When installed at scale, these chips can process AI inference tasks at a more cost-efficient rate than Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) data center GPUs. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Many hyperscalers -- including Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms -- are installing Broadcom's custom AI accelerators to reduce their dependence on Nvidia's data center GPUs. Broadcom also bundles those chips with its own networking switches, optical equipment, and infrastructure software to help those tech giants efficiently expand their data centers. In fiscal 2025 (which ended last November), Broadcom's AI chip revenue rose 65% to $20 billion, accounting for 31% of its top line and offsetting the slower growth of its non-AI chips and infrastructure software business. From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at CAGRs of 38% and 47%, respectively, as the AI market expands and its non-AI businesses stabilize in a warmer macro environment. What are its upcoming catalysts? Broadcom expects to generate $60 billion to $90 billion in annualized AI chip revenues by the end of fiscal 2027...

Earnings Call Insights: UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Q4 2025 Management View CEO J. Kemper opened by highlighting "another strong quarter to close out 2025, with the successful acquisition of Heartland Financial, the opening of our first branch location in Utah and another year of record earnings." Kemper emphasized "significant improvements in our profitability metrics" and noted the company's "unwavering focus on strong asset quality metrics." Key performance metrics cited by Kemper included a return on average assets of $120 million compared to $104 million in the third quarter and a return on average common equity of 11.27%, up from 10.14%. The efficiency ratio improved to 55.5% from 58.1% in the previous quarter. Reported net income available for common shareholders for the quarter was $209.5 million or $2.74 per share, up 16.1% from Q3. Excluding acquisition and nonrecurring items, net operating income was $235.2 million or $3.08 per share. Kemper highlighted the acquisition of Heartland Financial as a major strategic milestone, stating, "We posted 13% linked quarter annualized growth in average loans and 5.6% in average deposits." He emphasized that C&I lending was the "strongest contributor this quarter with 27% annualized growth over the third quarter average balances," and projected ongoing momentum: "Looking ahead into the first quarter, overall loan activity and pipeline remains strong." On M&A, Kemper stated, "We don't need to do M&A. We have a strong, proven ability to generate assets, and we continue to take share and grow organically at a pace ahead of our peers." He reiterated organic growth as the top capital priority, but left the door open for "tuck-in acquisitions that make financial and strategic sense." CFO Ram Shankar reported, "Our fourth quarter results included $52.7 million in net interest income from purchase accounting adjustments, $12.3 million of which was related to accelerated accretion from early payoffs of acquired loans." He ...

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With corporate layoffs at a 22-year high and AI displacing nearly 78,000 jobs in 2025, the Czech-based French entrepreneur offers a practical framework for fathers seeking financial stability PRAGUE, CZECHIA, Jan. 28, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Arnaud CZ, founder of the $100k Dad system, specializing in corporate-to-entrepreneur transitions, has released a comprehensive complimentary course called the $100k Dad system designed to help working fathers develop sustainable side income streams. The eight-hour video, available on YouTube, addresses growing concerns among professionals facing unprecedented job instability in the current economic climate. Why Corporate Dads Are Seeking Side Income in 2026 The release comes at a critical moment for corporate employees worldwide. Recent data indicates that over 5,296 companies announced mass layoffs since January 2025, with October marking the worst month for workforce reductions in more than two decades. Major corporations including Verizon, UPS, and Microsoft have collectively eliminated tens of thousands of positions, leaving many families questioning the reliability of traditional employment. "The corporate landscape has fundamentally changed," said Arnaud, who has coached over 150 entrepreneur fathers through his programs, with 50% of them based in the U.S. "Fathers who once relied on a single paycheck to support their families are recognizing that diversifying income has shifted from optional to essential. The question is no longer whether to build additional revenue streams, but how to do it effectively while maintaining current employment." A Practical Framework for Building a Side Business While Employed The complimentary course addresses a significant gap in available resources for professionals exploring entrepreneurship. Rather than theoretical concepts, the program provides a structured framework that participants can implement alongside their existing careers. Arnaud developed the curriculum based on patterns obs...

The chipmaker remains a top play in the booming AI infrastructure market. Nvidia's (NVDA +1.67%) stock surged 26,960% over the past decade. Much of that growth was driven by the soaring popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Nvidia's discrete GPUs, which were once mainly used to render graphics in video games, were well-suited to handle complex AI applications because they could simultaneously process parallel tasks. That set them apart from CPUs, which were optimized for processing sequential tasks. Some investors might be reluctant to chase Nvidia's stock after those massive gains. However, a single catalyst could drive its stock even higher in 2026: skyrocketing demand for AI infrastructure upgrades to support the latest AI applications. Why would that trend drive Nvidia's stock higher? The global AI infrastructure market could expand at a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032, according to Fortune Business Insights, as more data centers upgrade their AI chips. Nvidia already controls more than 90% of the discrete GPU market, according to Carbon Credits. It maintained its lead in the booming data center market through AI-oriented architecture upgrades, including Turing (2019), Ampere (2020), Hopper (2022), and Blackwell (2024). Expand NASDAQ : NVDA Nvidia Today's Change ( 1.67 %) $ 3.15 Current Price $ 191.67 Key Data Points Market Cap $4.6T Day's Range $ 189.84 - $ 192.35 52wk Range $ 86.62 - $ 212.19 Volume 4M Avg Vol 186M Gross Margin 70.05 % Dividend Yield 0.02 % Nvidia also locks in its customers with CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), its proprietary programming platform optimized for its own chips. It also bundles its chips with its own networking products, software, and services to further widen its moat. Most of the world's top AI companies -- including Microsoft (MSFT +0.22%), OpenAI, and Meta Platforms (META 0.43%) -- have spent billions of dollars on Nvidia's data center chips. Nvidia faces some competition from AMD's (AMD +0.28%)...

Key Points Nvidia is selling the best picks and shovels for the booming AI market. It locks in those customers with its software, networking products, and other services. Its stock still looks reasonably valued relative to its growth potential. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock surged 26,960% over the past decade. Much of that growth was driven by the soaring popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Nvidia's discrete GPUs, which were once mainly used to render graphics in video games, were well-suited to handle complex AI applications because they could simultaneously process parallel tasks. That set them apart from CPUs, which were optimized for processing sequential tasks. Some investors might be reluctant to chase Nvidia's stock after those massive gains. However, a single catalyst could drive its stock even higher in 2026: skyrocketing demand for AI infrastructure upgrades to support the latest AI applications. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Why would that trend drive Nvidia's stock higher? The global AI infrastructure market could expand at a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032, according to Fortune Business Insights, as more data centers upgrade their AI chips. Nvidia already controls more than 90% of the discrete GPU market, according to Carbon Credits. It maintained its lead in the booming data center market through AI-oriented architecture upgrades, including Turing (2019), Ampere (2020), Hopper (2022), and Blackwell (2024). Nvidia also locks in its customers with CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), its proprietary programming platform optimized for its own chips. It also bundles its chips with its own networking products, software, and services to further widen its moat. Most of the world's top AI companies -- including Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), OpenAI, and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) -- have spent...

春节将至，电影市场的热度持续升温。随着观影活动越来越火热，各地推出多种类型优惠措施。其中，湖北送上超7500万元观影福利。从今年元旦到10月底，不仅发消费（883434）券，还为外卖小哥等新就业群体准备了专享观影券，让大伙实惠看电影。(央视)

The UK government has said it plans to change regulations in the second half of 2026 to enable driverless taxis to operate in the city but has not given a specific date.

New York, Jan 28, 2026, 17:47 EST — Trading has moved into after-hours. Apple shares slipped roughly 0.7% in late trading, closing at $256.44. Apple is set to release its quarterly earnings on Thursday, drawing attention to iPhone sales and its AI strategy. (Reuters) Traders are keeping an eye on potential margin hits from rising memory costs and challenges facing the App Store in Europe. (Reuters) Shares of Apple Inc (AAPL.O) slipped roughly 0.7% in after-hours on Wednesday, closing near $256.44. During the regular session, the stock fluctuated between $254.53 and $258.95. The timing feels tricky. Apple is set to release earnings on Thursday, and it remains a stock that can move the Nasdaq by itself. Even a solid beat might fall short now; investors are eager to see a clear plan on how Apple will profit from AI. (Reuters) U.S. stocks closed with minimal movement following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged, leaving uncertainty over future borrowing cost moves. The Nasdaq nudged up, while the S&P 500 ended almost unchanged. After-hours, big tech earnings triggered a mixed bag of reactions. (Reuters) Apple’s performance hinges on iPhone sales. Analysts surveyed by LSEG predict a 13.8% rise in iPhone revenue for the fiscal first quarter, pushing total revenue up 11.4% to an all-time high of $138.43 billion. Services revenue is expected to jump 14.1%. Data from Visible Alpha points to a roughly 15% increase in sales from Greater China, while Counterpoint reports Apple grabbed a 20% share of the global smartphone market in 2025. (Reuters) Apple’s AI strategy builds directly on its hardware foundation. Reuters described the choice to integrate Alphabet-owned Google’s Gemini into a redesigned Siri as “the biggest shift to date” in Apple’s AI play. Goldman Sachs analysts weighed in, saying the Google partnership “should demonstrate to the market the iPhone will remain the consumer device of choice for accessing new AI tools.” (Reuters) Some investors se...

特斯拉 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克当地时间周三表示，该公司将在下一季度停产Model S和Model X车型，这意味着这家电动汽车制造商旗下更高端的SUV和轿车车型即将退出市场。 “现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了，因为我们正迈向一个真正基于自动驾驶的未来，”马斯克在特斯拉第四季度财报电话会议上说道。 马斯克表示，特斯拉正在用“擎天柱”机器人工厂取代其位于加州弗里蒙特工厂的Model S和Model X生产线，其长期目标是每年生产一百万台机器人。 马斯克说，特斯拉将继续为Model S和Model X车型提供支持，只要用户还在使用这些车辆。他还补充说，对于有兴趣购买这些车型的用户，“现在是订购的最佳时机”。 这位CEO表示，这一转变“略带遗憾”，但也是公司“向自动驾驶未来整体转型”的一部分。 责任编辑：于健 SF069

Tesla’s robo-taxi service can cover 25% to 50% of the U.S. population by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval, according to Musk. Tesla, however, does plan to launch a robo-taxi service in the first half of 2026 in seven new cities: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas. The populations of those metro areas, plus Austin and San Francisco, where Tesla currently operates robo-taxis, total about 40 million, or about 11% of the U.S. population.

A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images S&P 500 futures were near the flatline on Wednesday night after the release of key earnings reports from big tech companies and the latest Federal Reserve rate decision. Futures linked to the broad market index were little changed. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 92 points, or 0.2%. In extended trading, Meta Platforms added 8% after the Facebook parent gave a stronger-than-expected first-quarter sales forecast . Tesla shares advanced 2% after the company's fourth-quarter results beat expectations. Microsoft shares fell nearly 7% as cloud growth slowed in the fiscal second quarter and quarterly capital expenditures and finance leases came in higher than analysts expected. In Wednesday's regular session, the S&P 500 briefly topped the 7,000 threshold, but ultimately ended the day little changed after the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The 30-stock Dow added just 12 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed about 0.2%, aided by advances in Nvidia and Micron Technology. In its post-meeting statement, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said that indicators are suggesting that " economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace" and that the unemployment rate "has shown some signs of stabilization." Still, fed funds futures trading are still pricing in two quarter percentage point cuts by the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool . "The Fed statement was largely as expected, and markets tend to move on surprises," said Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global equities and real assets. "We are looking to earnings and economic data to drive the next leg higher, but also w...

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Key Points Berkeley initiated a new stake in Morningstar, adding 17,382 shares; the estimated trade size was $3.78 million based on quarterly average pricing. The firm's quarter-end position value rose by $3.78 million, reflecting both share purchases and price movement over the period. This transaction resulted in Morningstar representing 1.2% of Berkeley's reportable assets under management at quarter-end. Post-trade, Berkeley held 17,382 shares of Morningstar valued at $3.78 million as of Dec. 31, 2025. The new position places Morningstar outside the firm's top five portfolio holdings by value. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › What happened According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing dated Jan. 26, 2026, Berkeley reported acquiring 17,382 shares of Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) during the fourth quarter. The estimated transaction value was $3.78 million, calculated using the average share price for the quarter. At quarter-end, the value of the new position was $3.78 million, reflecting both the purchase and subsequent price changes. What else to know This was a new position for Berkeley, accounting for 1.2% of its $314.47 million in reportable assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2025. Top holdings after the filing: Invesco S&P International Developed ETF : $21.77 million (6.9% of AUM) Distillate U.S. Fundamental Stability and Value ETF : $20.92 million (6.7% of AUM) Visa : $18.06 million (5.7% of AUM) Eaton Vance Mortgage Opportunities ETF : $15.94 million (5.1% of AUM) NVR Inc. : $13.99 million (4.5% of AUM) As of Jan. 28, 2026, shares of Morningstar were priced at $204.66, down 38.65% over the past year, with underperformance of 55 percentage points versus the S&P 500. Company overview Metric Value Revenue (TTM) $2.40 billion Net income (TTM) $376.00 million Dividend yield 0.91% Price (as of market close Jan. 28, 2026) $204.66 Company snapshot Morningstar: Offersinvestment research financial data platforms, portfolio ...

特斯拉 周三表示，将向首席执行官埃隆-马斯克 的人工智能公司xAI投资20亿美元，并表示其Cybercab机器人出租车的生产计划将在今年按计划进行。这一消息支持了马斯克将特斯拉从电动汽车制造商转向人工智能公司的计划，这也是该公司估值约1.5万亿美元的关键所在。特斯拉首席财务官塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）表示，特斯拉还在加紧生产仿人机器人，这是一系列工厂投资的一部分，今年的资本支出将超过200亿美元。这一数字是 2025 年 85 亿美元的两倍多。股价在盘后交易中上涨了 2.5%。Investing.com高级分析师Thomas Monteiro表示，特斯拉正 “进入过渡阶段”，在汽车销量复苏之前，特斯拉要求投资者为其汽车和机器人出租车业务中的自动驾驶软件带来的潜在收入兜底。蒙泰罗说，“这使得推出指标（而不是交付量）成为今后最重要的领先指标。” 责任编辑：王永生

Software is eating the world and there is virtually no industry left that has been untouched by it. That drives increasing demand for tools helping software developers do their jobs, whether it be monitoring critical cloud infrastructure, integrating audio and video functionality, or ensuring smooth content streaming. Click here to access a free report on our 3 favorite stocks to play this generational megatrend . This quarter, Tesla missed Wall Street’s estimates and reported a rather uninspiring 3.1% year-on-year revenue decline, generating $24.9 billion of revenue. Looking ahead, sell-side This projection is admirable for a company of its scale and illustrates the market is baking in success for its newer products. We at StockStory emphasize long-term growth, but for disruptive companies like Tesla, a half-decade historical view may miss emerging trends in autonomous vehicles and energy. Tesla’s recent performance marks a sharp pivot from its five-year trend as its revenue has shown annualized declines of 1% over the last two years. Over the same period, Tesla’s automotive peers Rivian, General Motors, and Ford put up annualized growth rates of 76.9%, 8.6%, and 9.2%, respectively. Just note that while Rivian has the most similar vehicles to Tesla, comparisons aren’t exactly apples-to-apples because it’s growing from a much smaller revenue base. Tesla shows that fast growth and massive scale can coexist despite conventional wisdom. The company’s revenue base of $31.54 billion five years ago has tripled to $94.83 billion in the last year, translating into an incredible 24.6% annualized growth rate. Is now the time to buy Tesla? Find out in our full research report . Electric vehicle pioneer Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales falling 3.1% year on year to $24.9 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.50 per share was 10.8% above analysts’ consensus estimates. Story continues Automotive: Act One Revenue: The Race For Domi...

Key Points Peloton is in a new phase of its life cycle, one characterized by stabilization instead of growth. The company’s products and services are failing to attract new customers. Despite management’s best efforts and the stock’s cheap valuation, this looks like a value trap. 10 stocks we like better than Peloton Interactive › It's been a truly remarkable fall for the once esteemed Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ: PTON). The company's market cap was approaching the $50 billion mark about five years ago, in January 2021. Today, shares trade 97% below their peak, and the market cap is now $2.4 billion. While Peloton is making some progress, most notably around getting in better financial shape, it's still not worthy of investment consideration. Here's why I wouldn't touch this fitness stock with a 10-foot pole in 2026. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Peloton has transitioned from growth to stabilization The days of Peloton's monster growth seem like ancient history. But that hasn't discouraged the management team from right-sizing the company's operations, with $100 million in annualized cost cuts planned for fiscal 2026. This has helped the business report positive net income in two straight quarters, with an improved outlook. "We are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 minimum free cash flow target by $50 million to at least $250 million, reflecting the benefit of lower tariffs, both from lower rates and later-than-expected implementation timing, and our progress on realizing indirect cost savings sooner," CFO Liz Coddington said on the Q1 2026 earnings call. It also helps that Peloton's business now rakes in about three-fourths of its revenue from subscriptions. While the leadership team might support this shift away from hardware, investors should be more critical. That's because company revenue continues to fall, while the number of connected-fitness hardware and ...

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jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images A lot has happened since my last article about Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ), titled “ Tesla’s stock should be 10 times cheaper ” and published on 12 August 2025. The stock traded for about $340 per share, while now it is selling for $442 per share. But what exactly has happened during this time period? In fact, Tesla has reported a poor September 2025 earnings quarter with low net income. Moreover, in the beginning of January 2026, it reported its second consecutive year of falling deliveries . This is crucial for Tesla because a lion’s share of its sales and earnings are still due to electric vehicle deliveries. Finally, as I am writing this, the EV maker has just reported a disappointing set of Q4 2025 results . That is why TSLA stock should be bought neither by a value investor nor by a growth investor. At the same time, it is a horrible stock to sell short. Let me explain why. Recap of my previous article In my previous article about Tesla, I wrote that Tesla's stock was highly overvalued. I also wrote that the excessive valuations were partly due to the hopes that Tesla would successfully launch a full self-driving model. I was quite skeptical of such a possibility. In this publication I also mentioned that neither Tesla's sales nor its EPS was growing. Despite the full self-driving ambitions expected to come true as early as autumn 2025, Tesla’s full self-driving, or FSD, still requires plenty of improvements. Nothing good is developing on the earnings and sales front either. I will explain this later in this article. Deliveries Electric vehicles are still accountable for a lion’s share of the company’s sales . As of 3Q 2025, sales revenues coming from selling EVs totaled approximately $21.2 billion. The company’s total sales revenues over the same reporting period totaled about $28.1 billion. That is why maintaining high EV deliveries is so important for Tesla. As can be seen from the table and graph below, the company’s...

jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images A lot has happened since my last article about Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ), titled “ Tesla’s stock should be 10 times cheaper ” and published on 12 August 2025. The stock traded for about $340 per share, while now it is selling for $442 per share. But what exactly has happened during this time period? In fact, Tesla has reported a poor September 2025 earnings quarter with low net income. Moreover, in the beginning of January 2026, it reported its second consecutive year of falling deliveries . This is crucial for Tesla because a lion’s share of its sales and earnings are still due to electric vehicle deliveries. Finally, as I am writing this, the EV maker has just reported a disappointing set of Q4 2025 results . That is why TSLA stock should be bought neither by a value investor nor by a growth investor. At the same time, it is a horrible stock to sell short. Let me explain why. Recap of my previous article In my previous article about Tesla, I wrote that Tesla's stock was highly overvalued. I also wrote that the excessive valuations were partly due to the hopes that Tesla would successfully launch a full self-driving model. I was quite skeptical of such a possibility. In this publication I also mentioned that neither Tesla's sales nor its EPS was growing. Despite the full self-driving ambitions expected to come true as early as autumn 2025, Tesla’s full self-driving, or FSD, still requires plenty of improvements. Nothing good is developing on the earnings and sales front either. I will explain this later in this article. Deliveries Electric vehicles are still accountable for a lion’s share of the company’s sales . As of 3Q 2025, sales revenues coming from selling EVs totaled approximately $21.2 billion. The company’s total sales revenues over the same reporting period totaled about $28.1 billion. That is why maintaining high EV deliveries is so important for Tesla. As can be seen from the table and graph below, the company’s...

MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images This week I went shopping, not for apples but for high-yield REIT stocks trading under $10, and Angel Oak Mortgage REIT ( AOMR ) hit my radar once again. This REIT is unique in that it focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non-qualified (non QM) mortgage loans and other mortgage-related assets in the United States, rather than investing in the properties themselves like equity REITs do. I first covered it in April 2025 when I recommended it as a buy, and since then it is up around +11%. I pulled back to a hold in my July article , and the stock seemed to pull back too. Factors driving my optimism in both cases were factors like loan growth and the strategic investment by Brookfield Asset Management ( BAM ). Today's followup will make use of some data from the last earnings release in early November, but will also provide some actionable insights on what to look for in the next earnings call due in early March. In today's thesis, I'll show how and why my prior neutral view has not materially changed much in spite of the time since my last article and new data points to consider, particularly when thinking about this mortgage REIT from a risk management perspective in the larger context of mortgage REITs, a unique niche impacted by a few different factors than pure equity REITs. Thesis Summary For my followup thesis, I will present today why I think my prior hold rating should be reaffirmed. I would argue that despite the over 14% dividend yield, and growth in the loan book and improving macro forecasts in the mREIT sector, what hurts the bullish case includes several factors that include a weak upside forecast, shaky dividend sustainability and growth case, technicals not supporting bullishness, weaker performance vs the S&P500 compared with similar peers, and the greater risk of a portfolio exposed heavily to non-QM loans. The worksheet below shows what factors drove my score this time. AOMR - rating worksheet (author...

Microsoft reported Wednesday that its spending surged to a record high as cloud sales growth slowed, a one-two punch that sent the company’s shares down 5% amid broader investor concerns that— and stop us if this sounds familiar —it might take too long for tech giants to see massive AI investments pay off. Microsoft has been rushing to bake artificial intelligence tools, including those powered by OpenAI, into its products, betting that chatbots and automation technology will boost sales of the company’s productivity software and cloud services. Capital expenditures for the fiscal second quarter hit $37.5 billion, up 66% from a year earlier and exceeding analyst estimates for $36.2 billion. Still, others among the bubble set didn’t get slapped around as badly . Meta got a more positive investor reception after conceding that it has been spending more than anticipated to build out its AI business. What You Need to Know Today Wall Street’s wisest have something other than AI to worry about. Kalshi, the booming platform that churns out predictions on everything from the Super Bowl to US elections, is showing early promise as an accurate forecaster of Federal Reserve policy and economic data. When it comes to predicting interest-rate decisions, Kalshi is “roughly consistent” with the pros, such as those surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In a notable case, the prediction market even outperformed humans when the central bank delivered a surprise, jumbo-sized cut. Opinion: The Bubble Is Getting Closer to Popping CEOs at a few tech giants are now celebrities, with markets hanging on every word. But what may burst the AI bubble, Shannon O’Neil writes, isn’t circular financing; it’s Trump’s trade and immigration policies. Read the Story Fed Holds Rates Steady With a Nod to Stabilization in Unemployment Rate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who faces an unprecedented criminal probe by the Trump administration, says there is “clear improvement” in what’s expected for th...

Investing.com -- NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) provided extensive technical assistance to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, which helped the firm develop models later utilized by the Chinese military. According to reporting from Reuters, citing a letter from Representative John Moolenaar, the U.S. chipmaker’s collaboration enabled significant efficiency gains for the Beijing-based company. The House Select Committee on China revealed that Nvidia’s personnel assisted DeepSeek through an "optimized co-design of algorithms, frameworks, and hardware." Moolenaar noted that this partnership allowed DeepSeek-V3 to require "only 2.788M H800 GPU hours for its full training," a figure notably lower than what U.S. developers typically require. DeepSeek rattled global markets last year by producing high-performing models with significantly less computing power than its American counterparts. This efficiency has fueled concerns in Washington that China may be bypassing U.S. export restrictions to achieve AI parity. The documents obtained by the committee cover Nvidia’s activities during 2024, a period when DeepSeek was viewed as a standard commercial entity. "Nvidia treated DeepSeek accordingly - as a legitimate commercial partner deserving of standard technical support," Moolenaar wrote in the letter. Nvidia defended its actions by stating that the Chinese military does not rely on American hardware for its primary operations. "Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology," the company said in a statement to Reuters. The controversy arrives as the Trump administration recently approved sales of the more powerful H200 chips to China under specific restrictions. This decision has faced intense criticism from lawmakers who fear the technology will bolster Beijing’s military capabilities and erode the U.S. lead in artificial intelligence. Nvidia's stock has remained u...

dima_zel/iStock via Getty Images Intuitive Machines ( LUNR ) has reached my price target set in May 2025 , securing a 72% gain. The company was recently selected as a volunteering party to track the Artemis II, which is set for a journey around the Moon with the first launch expected no earlier than Feb. 6. In this report, I revisit the valuation and discuss the benefits of the strategic acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems. Intuitive Machines Has Major Opportunities Ahead Intuitive Machines’ main opportunity is the commercialization of travel to the Moon, requiring landers, rovers, and communication relay equipment and services. The first two missions attempting to land on the Moon were not an undivided success, with the landers tipping over. The third mission is set for this year. However, we note that the company is actually losing money on its current award launch contracts. The company had a $235.9 million backlog, including a $9.8 million contract for Orbital Transfer Vehicle, a follow-up contract for In-Space Nuclear Power valued at $8.2 million, and a commercial ride-sharing contract for the fourth Moon mission valued at $7.5 million, providing incremental commercialization of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services missions. The company can also count on incremental task orders for the various contract categories of the Near Space Network Services contracts . A contested award for the Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services, worth up to $4.6 billion, has been delayed due to the government shutdown. The acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems, which was finalized earlier this month, also provides growth opportunities in the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 3 Tracking Layer. Lanteris already provides L3Harris with Lanteris 300-series buses for the Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 layers. Other opportunities include telemetry and communication for Golden Dome and other tracking services, Mars data relay, satellite robotics, and revitalizing parts of the OMES III contract, which ...

Multiple Polls Show Majority Of Americans Want All Illegals Deported For months the political left and a small cadre of centrists (and some libertarians) have been denying reality on immigration and border controls. They claim (as if they are mind readers) that when Donald Trump ran his 2024 election campaign on mass deportations of illegals, voters actually thought he would only deport "violent criminal" illegal aliens, or migrants who committed crimes after crossing the border without permission. This was never Trump's policy or promise. It is a carefully crafted propaganda narrative designed to shift the Overton Window and change the nature of the debate. The original point being that all illegal migrants are, in fact, criminals by default and should be deported. The "criminal" policy manipulation is an attempt to override the prevailing reason for majority support of strict immigration controls: It's not only about crime - Americans oppose cultural replacement. The fight is against multiculturalism and the erasure of western civilization. But leftists and their allies want to divert the discussion into a debate over whether or not each particular migrant "deserves" to be deported. It does not matter. Maybe they a friendly illegal migrant. Maybe not. Either way, they get the boot. This is the prevailing position of most Americans, as CNN recently discovered in a segment which outlined a series of different polls from different media outlets. All of the polls say the same thing, around 55% to 65% of the US public wants mass deportations of illegal immigrants without question and without qualification. If they are not an official citizen, then they must go. Normie America has weighed in on mass deportations. Between 55% to 64% want ALL illegals deported. No exceptions. Don't let the anti-ICE thugs fool you. They are for chaos, criminals, and corruption. They are against democracy, the rule of law, and YOU. pic.twitter.com/98ulHhFpCK — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) Ja...

现货黄金价格继续创下历史新高，突破每盎司 5400 美元关口后涨势仍未停歇，因投资者在经济和地缘政治形势愈发严峻的情况下寻求避险。 截至北京时间周五上午7点17分左右，现货黄金价格上涨1.38%，首次站上5490美元，创历史新高。 在上一交易日，黄金价格每盎司上涨了约 200 美元，不断刷新历史纪录。 IG 市场分析师托尼·西卡莫尔表示：“这些上涨得益于持续的央行购买、趋势跟踪型基金的强劲势头以及投资者对优质资产的热衷追捧。” “尽管此轮上涨的抛物线走势表明回调可能即将到来，但基本面预计将在2026年全年保持支撑态势，任何回调都将是极具吸引力的买入机会。” 在美国总统特朗普周三敦促伊朗坐到谈判桌前就核武器问题达成协议之后，地缘政治紧张局势依然持续。特朗普称，否则美国的下一次攻击将会更加惨烈。 德黑兰则以威胁回应称，将对美国、以色列以及支持他们的人进行反击。 在政策方面，美联储于当地时间周三决定维持利率不变，这一结果完全符合市场预期。 在利率决议发布后，交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储将在 6 月份降低短期借贷成本，但在此之前不会这样做。 黄金作为传统的避险资产通常得益于低利率环境，今年迄今金价已上涨超过25%，而2025年上涨了64%。 与此同时，本周金价屡创新高，上海和香港的黄金销售店人潮涌动，一些顾客甚至押注金价可能进一步上涨。 现货白银价格稳定在每盎司116.61美元，此前曾于周一触及每盎司117.69美元的历史高点。 现货铂金价格上涨0.4%，至每盎司2705.79美元，此前周一曾触及每盎司2918.80美元的历史新高；钯金价格上涨0.3%，至每盎司2079.32美元。 责任编辑：于健 SF069

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：AI 不再是聊天玩具，而是正在接管决策的智能体。当 200 美金月费成为常态，中国模型已悄然登顶，OpenAI 的神话正在 2025 年的推理硝烟中加速裂解。文章来自编译。 2025 年年度总结 “推理”之年 智能体之年 编程智能体与 Claude Code 之年 命令行 LLM 之年 YOLO 模式与“偏差正常化”之年 每月 200 美元订阅费之年 中国开源权重模型登顶之年 长任务之年 提示词驱动图像编辑之年 模型在学术竞赛中夺金之年 Llama 迷失方向之年 OpenAI 失去领先地位之年 Gemini 之年 鹈鹕骑自行车之年 我构建了 110 个工具之年 “告密者”之年！ 氛围编程（Vibe Coding）之年 MCP（昙花一现？）之年 AI 浏览器功能强到令人心惊之年 致命三要素之年 手机编程之年 一致性测试套件之年 本地模型变强，但云端模型变得更强之年 AI 废料（Slop）之年 数据中心变得极度不受欢迎之年 我的年度词汇 “推理”之年 # OpenAI 在 2024 年 9 月用 o1 和 o1-mini 开启了“推理”革命，也叫做推理侧扩展或可验证奖励强化学习（RLVR）。在 2025 年初，他们通过推出 o3、o3-mini 和 o4-mini 进一步强化了这一优势。自此，“推理”已成为几乎每家主流 AI 实验室模型的招牌功能。 关于这一技巧重要性的解释，我最喜欢的是 Andrej Karpathy 的说法： 通过在多种环境（例如数学或代码谜题）中针对自动可验证的奖励对 LLM 进行训练，模型会自发产生在人类看来像是“推理”的策略——它们学会了将问题拆解为中间计算步骤，并学会了多种反复尝试、摸索解决问题的策略（参见 DeepSeek R1 论文中的示例）。[...] 事实证明，运行 RLVR 具有极高的性价比，它吞噬了原本用于预训练的计算资源。因此，2025 年的大部分能力进步都源于 LLM 实验室在这一新阶段的深耕。总的来看，虽然 LLM 的规模变化不大，但强化学习（RL）的运行时间变长了很多。 2025 年，每一家知名的 AI 实验室都至少发布了一款推理模型。有些实验室发布了混合模型，可以切换推理或非推理模式。现在，许多 API 模型都提...