jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of American Financial Group ( AFG ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 3% of their value. While AFG has a history of strong underwriting, results have been more mixed over the past year, which has pressured shares, especially given broader fears of peak profitability in the industry. Beyond this, its exposure to apartme...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of American Financial Group ( AFG ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 3% of their value. While AFG has a history of strong underwriting, results have been more mixed over the past year, which has pressured shares, especially given broader fears of peak profitability in the industry. Beyond this, its exposure to apartment rentals within its investment portfolio has been a headwind, though its lack of private credit exposure is an important differentiator. I last covered shares in November , rating the stock a “ H old,” and since then they have lost about 2%, in line with the market’s 3% decline. Seeking Alpha Now, the insurance sector is a large investor in private credit, which has been a headwind for performance given growing fears of a default cycle. However, this is less of a concern for AFG, which maintains a conservative fixed income portfolio. Within its $17 billion investment portfolio, 65% sits in fixed income, and 96% of that portfolio is investment grade. The portfolio is also relatively short-dated with a 2.9 year maturity and a 5.11% yield. I expect the portfolio yield to finish this year within 5bps of current levels. American Financial That said, it has some exposures to be mindful of, notably $1.2 billion of CLOs (collateralized loan obligations), which are vehicles supported by a pool of leveraged loans. However, essentially the entire portfolio is rated AAA, and the AAA tranche of a CLO has never taken a loss, not even in 2008-2009. I do not expect this to change, and I see little risk here. While there has been concern about excessive direct lending to software companies, just 1.5% of the portfolio, or $249 million, is loans to the entire technology sector, only a subset of which would be software. AFG simply does not have that much exposure to the portions of the credit market that have sparked so much fear. That is because it has historically taken its investment risk...
(RTTNews) - After moving sharply lower early in the session, stocks have shown a notable recovery over the course of the trading day on Thursday. The major averages have climbed well off their lows of the session, briefly reaching positive territory.
(RTTNews) - After moving sharply lower early in the session, stocks have shown a notable recovery over the course of the trading day on Thursday. The major averages have climbed well off their lows of the session, briefly reaching positive territory.
(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — I mentioned Restaurant Brands International (QSR) on the air a couple of weeks ago when we were talking about Casey's General Store (CASY) as two consumer-oriented stocks that had great set-ups technically and good fundamental stories to back up the charts. Casey's has worked...
(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — I mentioned Restaurant Brands International (QSR) on the air a couple of weeks ago when we were talking about Casey's General Store (CASY) as two consumer-oriented stocks that had great set-ups technically and good fundamental stories to back up the charts. Casey's has worked out great for us so far, starting from around $670 where I introduced it on The Halftime Report to a new record close above $737 on Wednesday (why can't they all work out this quickly?). If you took the CASY trade, then you're rolling up your stop to the purchase price and playing with house money. You can lock in the gain too if you want. Anyway, on that appearance I said we would eventually get around to writing up QSR for this column and, well, the day has arrived. Here we go. Restaurant Brands International is a food chain comprised of Popeye's Chicken, Burger King, Tim Hortons Donuts and Firehouse Subs. I'm sure Clavicular eats at one of these stores every day. Calorie counts aside, this stock has been a port of calm during the recent storm, hanging on to its year-to-date gains and making our list of the Best Stocks in the Market. This is a breakout in progress with the stock taking out overhead resistance at $75 on its way back toward the highs of two years ago in the low $80's. While everyone's watching the Brian Niccol-led Starbucks turnaround, this one may end up being the bigger success in 2026. 3G Capital is the controlling shareholder behind Restaurant Brands and for years their edge was simple: run lean, standardize everything, and let the franchise model do the heavy lifting. That playbook started to hit limits when Burger King U.S. lost relevance and franchisee returns slipped. Instead of scrapping management, 3G made a more interesting bet. Keep Joshua Kobza, the internal operator who understands the system cold, and bring in Patrick Doyle above him as Exec...
(RTTNews) - Shares of Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) are moving up about 6 percent on Thursday morning trading after the company announced that it has been awarded the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) contract to supply a 275 MW GenEco PEM electrolyzer system for Hy2gen Canada Inc.'s
(RTTNews) - Shares of Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) are moving up about 6 percent on Thursday morning trading after the company announced that it has been awarded the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) contract to supply a 275 MW GenEco PEM electrolyzer system for Hy2gen Canada Inc.'s
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... File these under charts to make you go “Hmmm,” or maybe “Aaaaah!” depending on your individual anxiety level. The below shows spreads (or risk premiums) on blue-chip corporate bonds versus Citigroup’s “fair value” model. According to Citi’s model, which takes into account things like volatility in currencies, equities and commodities, spreads on investment-grade credit should theoretically be trading about 38-44 basis points wider than they currently are. In other words, despite everything that’s going on in the world, investors in blue-chip debt don’t seem particularly bothered at the moment. This is, in and of itself, not enough to generate panic. After all, you can see from the above chart that actual spreads have been trading lower than Citi’s fair value model has implied for a couple years now, largely without incident. But where things get more interesting, or more worrying depending on your point of view, is when you look at how investors are actually differentiating between different credits and broader market themes. To do this, Citi has created two measures of “dispersion” — one which looks at systemic dispersion (where a dominant market story is driving pricing action, and so higher-beta names are moving more than lower-beta names) and idiosyncratic risk (where investors are actively distinguishing between different companies). On that measure, things look a lot more concerning. Both systemic and idiosyncratic disp...
Earnings Call Insights: Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET) Q1 fiscal 2026 Management View CEO Robert Spilman said the quarter began with momentum but demand softened quickly: “After a solid start to the first 7 weeks of fiscal 2026, the pace of business slowed abruptly in mid-January.” He tied the shift to “ongoing weak residential housing activity” and weather disruptions that “interrupted both ...
Earnings Call Insights: Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET) Q1 fiscal 2026 Management View CEO Robert Spilman said the quarter began with momentum but demand softened quickly: “After a solid start to the first 7 weeks of fiscal 2026, the pace of business slowed abruptly in mid-January.” He tied the shift to “ongoing weak residential housing activity” and weather disruptions that “interrupted both wholesale and retail sales as well as product distribution flow due to warehouse closures.” CEO Spilman highlighted marketing changes as a partial offset: “We benefited from changes to our marketing strategy this year, which expanded our President's Day promotional event to 3 weeks,” adding that “we had a double-digit increase in written orders for the back half of February” that “will be delivered in the second quarter.” CEO Spilman framed margin pressure as temporary and tariff-related: “We had margin pressure on our retail business from our decision to eat the tariff impact until midway through the quarter,” and said “with the tariff costs now included in the retail pricing, we expect to see improved retail margins going forward.” CEO Spilman said cost actions are being implemented alongside growth investments: “We have several initiatives in the works that are projected to save between $1.5 million and $2 million annually starting late in the second quarter.” CFO John Daniel reported Q1 consolidated revenue of $80.3 million (down 2.2%), gross margin of 56.2%, operating income of $1.2 million, and diluted EPS of $0.13. He also said liquidity “remains solid with $51 million of cash in short-term investments.” CEO Spilman outlined five growth initiatives centered on comp store growth, new corporate/licensed stores, e-commerce/omnichannel, wholesale expansion via Bassett Design Centers and Custom Studios, and building the interior design plus hospitality/commercial channels; he added, “The launch of the Bassett Hospitality division is underway.” Outlook Management did not p...
Earnings Call Insights: AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS) Q4 2025 Management View CEO Yogesh Jashnani said 2025 was “a year of rebuilding and transformation,” citing added talent, new processes, a new go-to-market strategy, and “strategically exited our only clinic outside of North America to streamline operations,” while also “issuing equity and utilizing our ATM to meaningfully reduce our net debt.”...
Earnings Call Insights: AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS) Q4 2025 Management View CEO Yogesh Jashnani said 2025 was “a year of rebuilding and transformation,” citing added talent, new processes, a new go-to-market strategy, and “strategically exited our only clinic outside of North America to streamline operations,” while also “issuing equity and utilizing our ATM to meaningfully reduce our net debt.” CEO Yogesh Jashnani tied recent demand improvement to operational changes, saying the company “returned the business to stabilization and beginning in February inflected to positive same-store sales growth,” adding that “we expect Q1 same-store sales to be flat.” CEO Yogesh Jashnani emphasized GLP-1-related demand as a growth vector, saying GLP-1s are driving demand for “skin tightening, contour restoration and overall reshaping after weight loss,” and that skin tightening and fat removal represent “a $100 million-plus sales opportunity long term.” CEO Yogesh Jashnani highlighted early scaling of skin removal, stating, “Just in Q4 2025, we have completed more than 100 skin removal surgeries, and we expect this to ramp in 2026 as we expand this capability across all locations.” CEO Yogesh Jashnani described marketing changes that began in Q4, including “connected TV,” increased influencer engagement, and website conversion improvements, and said improved financing options are being used “while maintaining our policy of full upfront payment.” Quote (Chief Financial Officer Michael Arthur) “During the close process, we identified a reconciliation matter related to intercompany transactions, which led us to conduct a broader review of certain accounting treatments, including lease accounting under ASC 842.” Outlook Management guided fiscal 2026 revenue to $151 million to $157 million and fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $15 million to $17 million. CFO Michael Arthur described pacing and comparability factors, saying “we expect the business to build momentum as the year progresse...
Since the regime quashed China’s version of the K-pop industry in 2021, an underground ‘alt-idol’ culture has emerged, championing freedom and experimentation Over the past decade, “idol” culture has turned east Asia into a pop music powerhouse as global audiences have flocked to Japanese and especially South Korean groups. Formed and exactingly trained by big entertainment conglomerates, bands su...
Since the regime quashed China’s version of the K-pop industry in 2021, an underground ‘alt-idol’ culture has emerged, championing freedom and experimentation Over the past decade, “idol” culture has turned east Asia into a pop music powerhouse as global audiences have flocked to Japanese and especially South Korean groups. Formed and exactingly trained by big entertainment conglomerates, bands such as BTS and EXO have blown up internationally thanks to bombastic songs, sensational dance routines and marketing campaigns designed to build a parasocial relationship between performers – idols – and their fans. Their neighbour China, however, the population of which is roughly eight times that of Japan and South Korea combined, has produced few groups with similar fame. Until 2021, Chinese versions of Korean idol-training shows – think The X Factor with considerably more challenging choreography – were gaining huge audiences. But the shows, and the fan culture they inspired, drew the ire of the Chinese government. It cracked down on “toxic” fandom, an initiative that included banning idol-development shows. “It was an excuse to regulate the internet,” says Emily Liu, who runs the popular idol newsletter Active Faults. The government has also unofficially prohibited Korean pop idols from performing in mainland China for the last decade due to geopolitical tensions. Continue reading...
(Sub Pop) The doomy duo strip back their sound to tectonic guitars and feedback, conjuring an immersive, strangely euphoric listening experience recorded in the wilds of Washington Nearly seven years on from Sunn O)))’s last two albums, the Steve Albini-produced companion pieces Life Metal and Pyroclasts, the drone metal pioneers’ 10th album presents itself as a return to basics. Eponymously title...
(Sub Pop) The doomy duo strip back their sound to tectonic guitars and feedback, conjuring an immersive, strangely euphoric listening experience recorded in the wilds of Washington Nearly seven years on from Sunn O)))’s last two albums, the Steve Albini-produced companion pieces Life Metal and Pyroclasts, the drone metal pioneers’ 10th album presents itself as a return to basics. Eponymously titled and released on Sub Pop – the label that put out drone metal’s ur-text, Earth’s 1993 debut Earth 2: Special Low Frequency Version – it strips away Stephen O’Malley and Greg Anderson’s penchant for collaboration (Scott Walker, Merzbow) and much of the expanded musical palette that came with it. No church organ, no dulcimer, no vocals, no radical reassembly of their material courtesy of Nurse With Wound’s Steven Stapleton: closer Glory Black features a brief burst of piano, and there are apparently synthesisers somewhere in the mix, but for the most part, the album seems to deal almost exclusively in heavily distorted down-tuned guitars and feedback, the core of Sunn O)))’s sound since they formed in 1998. But clearly the notion of a back-to-basics album should not be confused with that of an understated one. It’s not really an adjective that fits something that lasts the best part of 90 minutes, comes wrapped in a sleeve featuring two Mark Rothko paintings – by permission of the painter’s estate – and features somewhere between 130 and 180 tracks of guitar per song. (The latter comes thanks to a studio procedure that involved producer Brad Wood miking up not just the duo’s amplifiers but each amplifier’s individual speakers, and setting up what he called “the world’s largest stereo array of room mics” to capture ambient textures.) It also comes complete with sleeve notes from nature writer Robert Macfarlane, which variously quote the Greek stoic Epictetus, Walter Benjamin, 19th-century naturalist John Muir, author Patrick White and indigenous American environmentalist Robi...
Nadiya Senko/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Just a few weeks ago, I highlighted how the Korean Index (KOSPI) ( EWY ) had crashed 20% in two sessions, driven by an energy shock and a leverage unwind. But with the war potentially nearing an end, could this now be the time to buy? President Trump is looking to exit the Iran conflict, and Iran may want out, too. As a result, oil has pulled bac...
Nadiya Senko/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Just a few weeks ago, I highlighted how the Korean Index (KOSPI) ( EWY ) had crashed 20% in two sessions, driven by an energy shock and a leverage unwind. But with the war potentially nearing an end, could this now be the time to buy? President Trump is looking to exit the Iran conflict, and Iran may want out, too. As a result, oil has pulled back, volatility has eased, and risk assets are stabilizing. Because if this really is de-escalation, then Korea may have just gone from the epicenter of risk to one of the most asymmetric opportunities in global markets. But if that’s not the case; then the downside isn’t finished. Is The War Really Over? President Trump is giving the market what it wants: a swift de-escalation from the Iran war. But it takes two parties to stop a war, and as I also highlighted last week, markets have become increasingly skeptical of Trump. For now, oil has come off its highs and equities are bouncing, but this could still be a bear market rally. The key issue here is that despite what the U.S. might say, there’s been no regime change in Iran, and that could be an issue. But most of all, even if the Iran war ends soon, the Strait of Hormuz has not been secured . This means oil prices could continue to be an issue. What we have right now is a temporary de-escalation. But, as far as the flow of oil and gas is concerned, it does seem like the worst could now be behind us, which is great news for Korea. Why Korea Could Be A Screaming Buy In my last piece, I laid out how the sell-off in Korea was driven by two things: energy exposure and leverage. Both of those have now partially reversed. Oil is down from the panic highs, which immediately relieves some of the pressure on margins, currency, and sentiment. Crude price (Trendspider) More importantly, the leverage is gone, and what was once a headwind could now be a tailwind. Just yesterday, Korea actually had to halt program trading, which is known...
Jesus Vargas/Getty Images News The Trump administration on Wednesday removed sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez , a move that allows U.S. individuals and companies to conduct business with her and signals a potential shift in relations with Venezuela . The decision by the U.S. Department of the Treasury clears restrictions that had exposed Americans to penalties for engaging with Rodríguez, who took pow...
Jesus Vargas/Getty Images News The Trump administration on Wednesday removed sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez , a move that allows U.S. individuals and companies to conduct business with her and signals a potential shift in relations with Venezuela . The decision by the U.S. Department of the Treasury clears restrictions that had exposed Americans to penalties for engaging with Rodríguez, who took power after the removal of Nicolás Maduro . U.S. officials said the step reflects recent cooperation between Washington and Caracas, including efforts tied to economic stabilization and political negotiations. Rodríguez described the move as progress toward normalizing ties and urged the U.S. to lift additional sanctions. Reopening embassy The change comes as Venezuelan diplomats return to Washington to reopen their embassy and meet with U.S. officials. It also follows recent talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and opposition leader María Corina Machado , who continues to push for elections. For now, sanctions remain in place on other Venezuelan officials, some of whom face U.S. criminal charges. Analysts say the move could encourage further engagement but raise questions about whether it will lead to meaningful democratic reforms. In recent weeks, U.S. energy and investment firms have traveled to Caracas to explore opportunities, suggesting growing commercial interest as restrictions begin to ease. More on State Street® Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF S&P 500 Earning Estimates Are Surprisingly Rising And $100 WTIC Oil Is Not Expensive XLE: Sell Oil And Buy Oil Company Shares Chart Of The Day: What Will Oil Stocks Do If Oil Goes Vertical? Texas Pacific is the most oversold U.S. energy stock Lawmakers react as Trump signals Iran escalation