tupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction The market, in the last few weeks, has determined that Microsoft ( MSFT ) is losing the AI narrative. I believe that is a misinterpretation of what is going on. The company is not losing, in fact, that the market was assuming a perfect execution of the AI monetization story at the October 2025 highs, and what we're seeing now is the repricin...
tupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction The market, in the last few weeks, has determined that Microsoft ( MSFT ) is losing the AI narrative. I believe that is a misinterpretation of what is going on. The company is not losing, in fact, that the market was assuming a perfect execution of the AI monetization story at the October 2025 highs, and what we're seeing now is the repricing of that story to something closer to what is actually going on, which, as I said, is quite strong but takes longer to compound through P&L than the market narrative changes. That repricing, by the way, has now gotten too far. Azure: The Supply Story Is Still Being Written The bear case on Azure is based on two data points: the growth slowed from 40% to 39% quarter over quarter, and the capex required to support it, $37.5 billion in Q2 alone , is rising 66% while revenue growth is only 17%. Both of those are true but neither of those statements tells the whole story. view.officeapps.live.com What is missing in the market is the supply side, which CFO Amy Hood pointed to during the earnings call when she said A way to think about it, because I think I get asked this question sometimes, is, you know, if I had taken the GPUs that just came online in Q1 and Q2, in terms of GPUs, and allocated them all to Azure, the KPI would have been over 40. The constraint is not demand but supply and the $625 billion RPO is proof of that. The contract duration of Azure contracts extended from two years to two and a half years in the latest quarter. What that means is the revenue from the infrastructure that they’re building out today is already sold and in Q2, they added nearly one gigawatt of total capacity. Q3 guidance of 37% to 38% constant currency growth in Azure is in line with expectations and not above and beyond expectations, which is not what the market is used to seeing from Microsoft. However, in line is not bad when you’re growing 37% off of a $32 billion Intelligent Cloud base...
tupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction The market, in the last few weeks, has determined that Microsoft ( MSFT ) is losing the AI narrative. I believe that is a misinterpretation of what is going on. The company is not losing, in fact, that the market was assuming a perfect execution of the AI monetization story at the October 2025 highs, and what we're seeing now is the repricin...
tupungato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction The market, in the last few weeks, has determined that Microsoft ( MSFT ) is losing the AI narrative. I believe that is a misinterpretation of what is going on. The company is not losing, in fact, that the market was assuming a perfect execution of the AI monetization story at the October 2025 highs, and what we're seeing now is the repricing of that story to something closer to what is actually going on, which, as I said, is quite strong but takes longer to compound through P&L than the market narrative changes. That repricing, by the way, has now gotten too far. Azure: The Supply Story Is Still Being Written The bear case on Azure is based on two data points: the growth slowed from 40% to 39% quarter over quarter, and the capex required to support it, $37.5 billion in Q2 alone , is rising 66% while revenue growth is only 17%. Both of those are true but neither of those statements tells the whole story. view.officeapps.live.com What is missing in the market is the supply side, which CFO Amy Hood pointed to during the earnings call when she said A way to think about it, because I think I get asked this question sometimes, is, you know, if I had taken the GPUs that just came online in Q1 and Q2, in terms of GPUs, and allocated them all to Azure, the KPI would have been over 40. The constraint is not demand but supply and the $625 billion RPO is proof of that. The contract duration of Azure contracts extended from two years to two and a half years in the latest quarter. What that means is the revenue from the infrastructure that they’re building out today is already sold and in Q2, they added nearly one gigawatt of total capacity. Q3 guidance of 37% to 38% constant currency growth in Azure is in line with expectations and not above and beyond expectations, which is not what the market is used to seeing from Microsoft. However, in line is not bad when you’re growing 37% off of a $32 billion Intelligent Cloud base...
Sandwish/iStock via Getty Images LendingClub Corporation ( LC ) has seen its stock price take a hit to start the year. The stock is down by nearly 30% to start the year. It tends to not just be one single item that drives a stock lower. I think that is the case with Lending Club. Investors first sold the stock off following the earnings report. I think the concerns were related to guidance. There ...
Sandwish/iStock via Getty Images LendingClub Corporation ( LC ) has seen its stock price take a hit to start the year. The stock is down by nearly 30% to start the year. It tends to not just be one single item that drives a stock lower. I think that is the case with Lending Club. Investors first sold the stock off following the earnings report. I think the concerns were related to guidance. There has also been a lot of concern within the private lending market. We are also seeing inflation and rate concerns. These factors have really taken their toll on the stock price. Seeking Alpha Despite the overall macro concerns, the company has continued to perform well. The latest quarterly report shows continued growth and profitability. The company continues to complete its evolution into a full banking option for customers. It also continues to maintain its strong lending guidelines. I think the concerns related to the private credit market have been overblown in terms of their effect on Lending Club. The concerns that have arisen are not similar to the private lending that the company performs. While inflation can be a larger macro problem, rate cuts in particular help the company. Regardless of whether there are rate cuts or not, it continues to see success in the current rate environment. The pullback presents a buying opportunity in a high quality and growing stock. Financials The company reported strong growth for the 4th quarter and the year. LC reported total revenue increased by 22.7% to reach $266.5 million, up from $217.2 in the year prior. Loan origination was up 40% to reach $2.6 billion. EPS increased to $0.35, up massively from $0.08 in 2024. It had strong financial results across the board. The yearly results showed a similar growth trend, with originations growing by 33% and revenue growing to $999 million from $787 million, up 27%. EPS was $1.16 versus $0.45 in the prior year. The company is growing originations and revenues, and it is showing up in the b...
XtockImages/iStock via Getty Images Australia’s trade surplus more than doubled in February, to AUD 5.69 billion in February 2026, up from AUD 2.26 billion in January, exceeding expectations of AUD 2.6 billion. This was the largest surplus since July 2025, as gold and farm exports jumped, while imports of gold and data processing equipment eased. Exports rose by 4.9% month-on-month to AUD 45.65 bi...
XtockImages/iStock via Getty Images Australia’s trade surplus more than doubled in February, to AUD 5.69 billion in February 2026, up from AUD 2.26 billion in January, exceeding expectations of AUD 2.6 billion. This was the largest surplus since July 2025, as gold and farm exports jumped, while imports of gold and data processing equipment eased. Exports rose by 4.9% month-on-month to AUD 45.65 billion, reaching a four-month high, compared to an earlier revised decline of 1.6%. Imports fell by 3.2% to AUD 39.96 billion, the lowest in seven months, reversing a revised growth of 1.0%, due to weaker domestic demand and global trade uncertainties. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose to 8,707 in early Thursday trade, extending gains for a third session. The Australian dollar fell below $0.693 on Thursday, slipping back toward two-month lows. More on Australia: EWA: Australian Financials May Struggle With A Flattening Yield Curve EWA: Potentially Range Bound, Given The Mix Of Tailwinds And Headwinds S&P Global Australia PMI falls to 49.8, ending five-month growth streak Australia to halve fuel tax for three months to shield consumers from surging costs Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on iShares MSCI Australia ETF
Anne Czichos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis Relative to its peer companies, Merck KGaA has a compelling valuation from which to realize its upside potential through its positioned investments within each of the three sectors—pharmaceuticals, life sciences, and specialty materials—that comprise the company’s full business model. With global production capacity, robust supply ch...
Anne Czichos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis Relative to its peer companies, Merck KGaA has a compelling valuation from which to realize its upside potential through its positioned investments within each of the three sectors—pharmaceuticals, life sciences, and specialty materials—that comprise the company’s full business model. With global production capacity, robust supply chains, and synergies between patient, manufacturing, and product applications, Merck KGaA is able to create innovative solutions in bioprocessing, advanced materials, specialized therapeutics, and digital/AI ecosystem development, as well as fund an ongoing dividend increase, stock buybacks, debt reduction, and potential future strategic expansions from the company’s strong cash flow for the foreseeable future. Overall, my recommendation to purchase shares of Merck KGaA has been informed by the overall long-term and resilient ongoing trends worldwide towards healthcare innovation, the world’s population aging, widespread digital transformation, and advances in next-generation biology and technologies. Competitive Scene Merck KGaA's competitive position is primarily driven by its size and integrated global manufacturing and supply chain capabilities in the pharma, life science, and specialty materials industries. Operating across multiple segments gives Merck KGaA a wider range of possibilities in a more innovative and competitive environment while also supporting customers at various points along the value chain. Bayer Aktiengesellschaft ( BAYRY ) is an especially close European competitor engaged in the global life science/healthcare market. Conversely, Merck & Co., Inc. and Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) provide examples of different operational models that emphasize biopharmaceutical pipelines (more narrow) versus a diversified med-tech and healthcare focus (more broad). Merck KGaA's diversified structure (Life Science, Healthcare, Electronics) provides opportunities for inter...
A new cohort of adventurers set off – but who will make it across Europe and Asia first? Plus: The Traitors star Harry Clark takes a pilgrimage. Here’s what to watch this evening 8pm, BBC One Time to strap on the big rucksacks again, as the BBC’s globetrotting hit returns for a sixth series. The starting gun is in Sicily, where five duos psych themselves up for a 12,000km yomp through Europe and A...
A new cohort of adventurers set off – but who will make it across Europe and Asia first? Plus: The Traitors star Harry Clark takes a pilgrimage. Here’s what to watch this evening 8pm, BBC One Time to strap on the big rucksacks again, as the BBC’s globetrotting hit returns for a sixth series. The starting gun is in Sicily, where five duos psych themselves up for a 12,000km yomp through Europe and Asia without access to flights, phones or much in the way of funds. Their ultimate goal? Northern Mongolia (and a £20,000 prize if they are first). Graeme Virtue Continue reading...