HAKINMHAN/iStock via Getty Images The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit 8 on Mar 31, its lowest since November and deep in "Extreme Fear" territory. The VIX touched 35.3 earlier this month, more than double its year-start level near 14. The S&P 500 sealed its fifth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, the longest losing streak since 2022, and sits roughly 9% below its February peak near 6,900. By every ...
HAKINMHAN/iStock via Getty Images The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit 8 on Mar 31, its lowest since November and deep in "Extreme Fear" territory. The VIX touched 35.3 earlier this month, more than double its year-start level near 14. The S&P 500 sealed its fifth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, the longest losing streak since 2022, and sits roughly 9% below its February peak near 6,900. By every sentiment metric, this is a market bracing for catastrophe. The price action says otherwise. The Volatility Gap The most revealing signal in today's market is not the VIX level itself. It is the gap beneath it. The S&P 500's 30-day implied volatility has surged above 23%, nearly double where it started the year. Realized volatility over the same window remains below 14%. That roughly 9% spread is one of the widest in recent years. Sources: Bloomberg This gap, known as the volatility risk premium, represents the excess cost investors are paying for options protection above the turbulence actually being experienced. In the options market, the evidence is unambiguous: the SPX put/call ratio reached 1.21 as of March 27, well above the neutral threshold of 1.0, indicating that demand for downside protection is overwhelming call activity. SPY's 30-day put/call ratio by open interest sits even higher at 1.41. The options market is buying insurance for a level of destruction that has not yet arrived. Three Fears, Partially Priced The anxiety is not baseless. It rests on three identifiable pillars: The energy shock. WTI crude settled at $106, its highest close since July 2022. But $106 is not the intra-month spike toward $120 that initially triggered the panic. The first wave of fear has partially receded; the risk premium has not. Sticky inflation, patient Fed. The Fed held rates at the March meeting. On Monday, Chair Powell reinforced the stance at Harvard, stating that the tendency is to "look through" supply shocks rather than tighten into them. Translation: no near-term cuts, b...
US president’s apparent decision to leave highly enriched uranium in hands of regime creates a more risky scenario than before the war began, experts say Middle East crisis – live updates Donald Trump has said he does not care about Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium (HEU), arguing it was deep underground and could be monitored by satellite, raising questions about one of the key US justifica...
US president’s apparent decision to leave highly enriched uranium in hands of regime creates a more risky scenario than before the war began, experts say Middle East crisis – live updates Donald Trump has said he does not care about Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium (HEU), arguing it was deep underground and could be monitored by satellite, raising questions about one of the key US justifications for the war. Experts said that if the US-Israeli offensive against Iran concluded with the Tehran government still in control of its 440kg HEU stockpile, it would be significantly closer to the capability of making nuclear warheads than if the US had pursued a potential negotiated settlement that was on the table at the time the US and Israel launched the war on 28 February. Continue reading...