特朗普或派出地面部队攻击伊朗后迅速“撤军” 核心观点 核心观点: 结合特朗普最新演讲内容, 东吴证券 认为特朗普或通过最后一波对伊朗高烈度的军事打击,以宣布本次“史诗狂怒”行动取得“彻底胜利”,从而正当化其最后撤军的TACO行为 。同时特朗普也在将霍尔木兹海峡问题的矛盾转移至伊朗与其他国家之间,以掩盖自身挑起冲突的政治责任。 但由于“先升级再降级”的路径仍无法解决霍尔木兹海峡的通航问题,因此市场短期内或将延续之前的“紧货币”交易路径 。若伊朗方面未来对美伊直接会谈做出积极表态,双方开始就和平协议进行实质性磋商,则市场情绪或因此出现显著改善,令当前“紧货币”交易路径反转。 特朗普再度发表全国演讲,表示未来两到三周内对伊进行猛烈打击。 北京时间4月2日上午9:00,美国总统特朗普于白宫就对伊朗的军事行动发表全国演说。此次演讲为3月3日以来特朗普第二次就对伊军事行动发表正式演讲。特朗普在演讲中表示对伊朗军事打击的核心目标已经“接近完成(near completion)”,并将在未来两到三周内再度对伊朗进行“严厉打击(hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks)”。此外,特朗普还表示美国几乎不从霍尔木兹海峡进口石油,因此其他依赖进口能源的国家应该自己去“夺取并保护(take it and protect it)”霍尔木兹海峡。当冲突结束时,海峡便会“自动开放”(when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally)。由于特朗普表示将再度对伊朗进行军事打击,且并未给出霍尔木兹海峡问题的具体解决方案,演讲结束后原油价格大涨,市场再度交易“紧货币”,带动美债利率上行,黄金价格回落。 结合本次演讲和近期特朗普的公开言论, 东吴证券 认为,特朗普正在为TACO做准备,其或在正式撤军前通过最后一波军事打击以 “宣布胜利”,并将霍尔木兹海峡问题的矛盾转移至伊朗与其他国家之间,具体来看 : 特朗普或派出地面部队攻击伊朗后迅速“撤军”。 从本届特朗普政府的外交战略来看,东吴证券不难发现其对伊朗的军事行动实际上是不符合其“美国优先”和“在中东避免陷入无休止战争”的外交战略思想(详见报告《从委内瑞拉事件看特朗普“唐罗主义”下的外交战略重心转变》)。 特朗普对...
Chief of Staff of the Army Gen. Randy George waits to testify before the start of the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the FY 2025 budget for the Department of the Army in the Hart Senate Office Building on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images U.S. Army Chief of Staff Randy George was fired on Thursday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, three U.S. defe...
Chief of Staff of the Army Gen. Randy George waits to testify before the start of the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the FY 2025 budget for the Department of the Army in the Hart Senate Office Building on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images U.S. Army Chief of Staff Randy George was fired on Thursday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, three U.S. defense officials told Reuters, in the latest purge among the Pentagon's most senior ranks. Even as Hegseth, a former Fox News host, has moved quickly to reshape the department, firing a general during wartime is nearly without precedent. The Pentagon confirmed that George, who had more than a year left in his term, "will be retiring from his position as the 41st Chief of Staff of the Army effective immediately." The Pentagon said in a statement it was grateful for George's decades of service. "We wish him well in his retirement," it said. Two of the officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Hegseth has also fired General David Hodne, who leads the Army's Transformation and Training Command, and Major General William Green, head of the Army's Chaplain Corps. The department did not give a reason for George's departure, which comes as the U.S. military builds up its forces in the Middle East while carrying out operations against Iran. The U.S. strikes in the region are largely being carried out by the Navy and Air Force, although U.S. Army soldiers have been dispatched to the Middle East for air defense systems. The Army is the largest branch of the U.S. military, with about 450,000 active-duty soldiers. Thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division have also started arriving in the Middle East, potentially for ground operations in Iran. Latest upheaval at Pentagon U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (L) and U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George stand for a pass and review during the Department of War 2025 National Prisoner of POW/MIA R...
(RTTNews) - The Thai stock market has finished lower in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day winning streak in which it had risen almost 7 points or 0.5 percent. The Stock Exchange of Thailand now sits just above the 1,465-point plateau and it's expected to see
(RTTNews) - The Thai stock market has finished lower in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day winning streak in which it had risen almost 7 points or 0.5 percent. The Stock Exchange of Thailand now sits just above the 1,465-point plateau and it's expected to see
More Hongkongers are expected to travel elsewhere during the five-day Easter weekend from Friday despite a sharp jump in fuel surcharges, according to industry leaders. They also expect more visitors from mainland China during an overlapping Ching Ming Festival holiday, but doubt the influx will deliver any significant boost to the city’s tourism revenue. Some noted that the Easter break might hav...
More Hongkongers are expected to travel elsewhere during the five-day Easter weekend from Friday despite a sharp jump in fuel surcharges, according to industry leaders. They also expect more visitors from mainland China during an overlapping Ching Ming Festival holiday, but doubt the influx will deliver any significant boost to the city’s tourism revenue. Some noted that the Easter break might have encouraged travel to the Middle East, but many tour groups have been cancelled until October due...
A man in China who followed his parents into the sewage removal business has used nine septic tank trucks to greet his bride on their wedding day. The nuptials, the first of their kind in China, unfolded on March 28 in Suixi county of central Anhui province, the hometown of the groom Pan Haonan. The event trended on social media and a video of the proceedings was viewed 5 million times, receiving ...
A man in China who followed his parents into the sewage removal business has used nine septic tank trucks to greet his bride on their wedding day. The nuptials, the first of their kind in China, unfolded on March 28 in Suixi county of central Anhui province, the hometown of the groom Pan Haonan. The event trended on social media and a video of the proceedings was viewed 5 million times, receiving nearly 20,000 likes, the news outlet The Cover reported. Pan’s father has been engaged in removing...