rarrarorro/iStock via Getty Images After a few false starts, enough signs have emerged recently that, certainly without any guarantees, we may be approaching the end of the most recent conflict in the Middle East — at least the uglier part of it. The news flow coincides with the end of a brief but intense movement in the markets that resulted in traders and investors dumping most risk assets and s...
rarrarorro/iStock via Getty Images After a few false starts, enough signs have emerged recently that, certainly without any guarantees, we may be approaching the end of the most recent conflict in the Middle East — at least the uglier part of it. The news flow coincides with the end of a brief but intense movement in the markets that resulted in traders and investors dumping most risk assets and seeking shelter in crude oil and other key (non-precious metal) commodities, as illustrated in the chart below. It begs the question: if or when the Iran war overhang subsides, where might the investment opportunities lie? Today, I will address the question by researching the data and letting quantitative analysis, primarily, suggest how investors might want to position their portfolios today. Data by YCharts Stay away from crude oil-like trades I read enough comments in March 2026 from professional asset allocators and casual readers alike that had suddenly warmed up to the idea of holding assets that are tied to crude oil and similar commodities. I can't blame them: when the world seems to be unwinding, and one of the byproducts is a tightening energy supply, the first instinct might be to ditch most other holdings and "hide" in today's safe haven of choice. History provides some evidence, however, that the value of assets like crude oil meanders around a long-term average and tends to revert back to the mean, eventually. The chart below goes back only about 20 years, but it helps to illustrate the point well. Data by YCharts I ran the numbers on the United States Oil Fund LP ETF ( USO ), going back to the pre-Great Recession year of 2006. Here are some interesting findings: The monthly returns in USO are mildly, but positively autocorrelated in the short term — with a one-month lag, to be more precise. This is to say that oil prices tend to trend in the very short term, which is precisely what we observed in March 2026. Beyond one month, however, the autocorrelation coeff...
Sviatlana Barchan/iStock via Getty Images The employment situation has been top-of-mind for most economics wonks that track data like U.S. non-farm payrolls—like myself. The BLS' NFP report from April 3rd came with great news, as they estimated 178,000 jobs were added. This is the largest add since late 2024 and flips NFP from a negative number last month . That brings the unemployment rate back d...
Sviatlana Barchan/iStock via Getty Images The employment situation has been top-of-mind for most economics wonks that track data like U.S. non-farm payrolls—like myself. The BLS' NFP report from April 3rd came with great news, as they estimated 178,000 jobs were added. This is the largest add since late 2024 and flips NFP from a negative number last month . That brings the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%; that brings the YoY change in unemployment to -0.1%. These are both movements in the right direction, with the unemployment rate continuing its downward trend after peaking in November at 4.6%. BLS This result was within expectations, as the ending of the large healthcare workers strike helped the employment figures here. That, and the severe winter storms, were large contributors to February's decline. It was natural that we would see a snapping back of the figure when those abated. The March Jobs Report The headline numbers are flashy because they're directionally correct, but I've been watching another statistic for the last year: job leavers who never re-enter. This subset of folks are simply called “people not in the labor force” or “marginally attached” in the report. If they looked for a job in the last 12 weeks but not in the past 4 weeks prior to the survey, they also end up in “discouraged workers.” We saw a fairly big jump in this figure, and it was basically equal to all the previously unemployed folks we had. We dropped 332k unemployed people YoY, but we added 325k people to the marginally attached category. Annotations by author (BLS) It is always good news to see the levels of unemployment go down, but perhaps not while “not in labor force” and “marginally attached” are rising at similar levels. It led to the participation rate dropping overall, and the “employed” number shrank, even if slightly. The establishment survey was fairly quiet, and again—just like last year, when essentially all the gains were made in healthcare—a significant number of...
Starting in 2026, Medicare Advantage began imposing new limits on coverage. Unfortunately, many people choose Medicare Advantage precisely because it tends to provide broader benefits than traditional Medicare offers. These new limits are a disappointment to many, and some have expressed concern about some of them being too vague. Here's what you need to know about the limits, as well as the sourc...
Starting in 2026, Medicare Advantage began imposing new limits on coverage. Unfortunately, many people choose Medicare Advantage precisely because it tends to provide broader benefits than traditional Medicare offers. These new limits are a disappointment to many, and some have expressed concern about some of them being too vague. Here's what you need to know about the limits, as well as the source of concern about the lack of clarity. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Senior Iranian Official Involved In Reaching Out To Vance Severely Wounded In Airstrike A top Iranian official who was involved in diplomatic outreach and indirect talks or messaging with the United States and Pakistani mediators was reportedly critically wounded in a US-Israeli strike. Kamal Kharazi, an 81-year-old senior adviser to Tehran and former foreign minister , lost his wife in the Wednes...
Senior Iranian Official Involved In Reaching Out To Vance Severely Wounded In Airstrike A top Iranian official who was involved in diplomatic outreach and indirect talks or messaging with the United States and Pakistani mediators was reportedly critically wounded in a US-Israeli strike. Kamal Kharazi, an 81-year-old senior adviser to Tehran and former foreign minister , lost his wife in the Wednesday strike on his home , state media has said. Kharazi chairs Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and has been viewed as a potential backchannel negotiator involving Islamabad, but now he's been hospitalized with serious injuries , state media has also said. "We have seen what looks like an assassination attempt against the former foreign minister , Kamal Kharazi … We don’t know why he’s been targeted. He has been gravely wounded, and his wife was killed," said an Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran. Iranian officials described to Mehr News Agency that Kharazi was overseeing outreach to Pakistan tied to a possible meeting with US Vice President JD Vance . A potential Vance trip to Pakistan was initially reported as possibly being in the works late last month. But Middle East Eye has reported that Kharazi was not seeing much room for diplomacy as US-Israeli actions escalate to attacks on Iranian infrastructure and energy : He told CNN in March, "I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore. Because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises, and we experienced this in two times of negotiations – that while we were engaged in negotiation , they struck us ." If he succumbs to his wounds, Kharrazi would be the latest senior Iranian official killed since the war began. In addition to Khamenei, top security adviser Ali Shamkhani, Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Pakpour, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, and Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh were all killed on the first day of the war. Ali Larijani , secretary of the Supreme...
Russian strikes killed at least eight people across Ukraine on Friday, including in a “massive” missile and drone attack near the capital, local authorities reported. Ukrainian officials claim the Kremlin is changing its tactics to increase civilian suffering, shifting to daytime barrages and preparing to target more key infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky has signalled Kyiv’s openness to...
Russian strikes killed at least eight people across Ukraine on Friday, including in a “massive” missile and drone attack near the capital, local authorities reported. Ukrainian officials claim the Kremlin is changing its tactics to increase civilian suffering, shifting to daytime barrages and preparing to target more key infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky has signalled Kyiv’s openness to a potential Easter truce. The holiday is celebrated on April 12 in Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky...