A century on, T.S. Eliot’s poem The Hollow Men strikes a disturbingly ominous note: This is the way the world ends / Not with a bang but a whimper. With the way things are going at present, we could be about to find out which of these endings it will be. The hope is that the Iran-centred conflagration in the Middle East will not turn into a nuclear apocalypse and that the “whimper” will be merely ...
A century on, T.S. Eliot’s poem The Hollow Men strikes a disturbingly ominous note: This is the way the world ends / Not with a bang but a whimper. With the way things are going at present, we could be about to find out which of these endings it will be. The hope is that the Iran-centred conflagration in the Middle East will not turn into a nuclear apocalypse and that the “whimper” will be merely a cry from the depths of global economic recession. But either scenario is possible while the Trump...
KanawatTH/iStock via Getty Images A well-timed short squeeze significantly mitigated Q1 market declines. The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% during the quarter's final trading session, reducing Q1 losses to 4.6%. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Index surged 7.1% (ending the quarter up 6.4%). From Monday's lows to Tuesday's quarter end, the Nasdaq 100 rallied 4.0% to close Q1 down 6.0%. The MAG7 index rallied 5....
KanawatTH/iStock via Getty Images A well-timed short squeeze significantly mitigated Q1 market declines. The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% during the quarter's final trading session, reducing Q1 losses to 4.6%. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Index surged 7.1% (ending the quarter up 6.4%). From Monday's lows to Tuesday's quarter end, the Nasdaq 100 rallied 4.0% to close Q1 down 6.0%. The MAG7 index rallied 5.0% from Monday's lows to end the quarter with a 12.0% loss. The KBW Bank Index recovered 4.0% to end Q1 down 6.0%. There was notable quarter-end hedge fund performance "window dressing." March 31 - Barron's (Shaina Mishkin): "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock on Monday notched their largest one-day increases in over a decade after traders took investor Bill Ackman's advice. Ackman, founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said… that 'some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices.' 'And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best'… 'They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.' The stocks took off on Monday: Fannie Mae closed 51% higher, logging its largest one-day gain since August 2009… Freddie Mac gained 47%, its largest gain since March 2013." April 2 - Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar, Bei Hu, and David Ramli): "Some of the world's biggest hedge funds known for delivering steady returns lost money in March as the war in the Middle East roiled markets across energy, bonds and equities and forced traders to unwind crowded positions. Multistrategy hedge funds ranging from ExodusPoint Capital Management to Balyasny Asset Management, Citadel and Millennium Management posted declines, giving up all or part of their gains from the prior two months… Earlier in March, JPMorgan… strategists said hedge funds experienced their biggest drawdown since the Liberation Day tariff turmoil…" CDS prices reversed sharply lower Tuesday, with high yield CDS sinking 21 to 385 bps (ended week at 377 bps). "Squeeze" dynami...
Woodkern/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis Structural change within the Caterpillar ( CAT ) market is in its infancy. For over two centuries, Caterpillar was characterized as a cyclical equipment company exposed to the difficulties of construction, mining, and fluctuations in interest rates. This outdated lens is no longer useful; when investors employ it, they consistently under...
Woodkern/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis Structural change within the Caterpillar ( CAT ) market is in its infancy. For over two centuries, Caterpillar was characterized as a cyclical equipment company exposed to the difficulties of construction, mining, and fluctuations in interest rates. This outdated lens is no longer useful; when investors employ it, they consistently underestimate the company's earnings potential. The Power and Energy division of Caterpillar is the biggest and the quickest expanding part of its business, which delivers the large generators, turbines, and industrial power systems to the grid. Demand is driven by AI data centers' inelastic power needs, not cyclical forces. This is real and valid physical evidence. The fact that orders of mega generator sets and turbines by hyperscalers increased rapidly led to the growth of Power and Energy revenue by 23% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and power generation sales increased by 44% . In 2025, the company recorded the highest power generation sales, with year-over-year growth of over 30% . A two-gigawatt order of a generator set to power a compute campus in Mason County, West Virginia, resulted in one of the largest power solution contracts in the 100-year history of the company . Based on quarterly earnings, Caterpillar is projected to record its highest-ever full-year adjusted EPS of $19.06 and operating cash flow of $11.7 billion in 2025 . Revenue visibility of the company is also unparalleled, as it has witnessed its highest backlogs of $51 billion, which has increased by 71% annually, and it is expected to increase to 62% in the near future. The premium multiple of Caterpillar as viewed by the market has been a partial evaluation of 15x cyclical P/E. Our target price of non-GAAP EPS is $880 in 2027 in light of our backlogs to revenue and accelerating Power & Energy mix. The multiple of AI infrastructure is lower than its present position of 31x and in an unfavorable position ...
themotioncloud/iStock via Getty Images The Iran conflict continues to set the pace for global markets, from Brent crude to BTC. Stablecoin liquidity reached a record $316.8B, whale accumulation continued, and tokenized oil trading volumes exploded to $3B per day. The money is here. It's waiting for direction. Capital on Standby, Direction Set by Oil Total stablecoin supply has reached a new all-ti...
themotioncloud/iStock via Getty Images The Iran conflict continues to set the pace for global markets, from Brent crude to BTC. Stablecoin liquidity reached a record $316.8B, whale accumulation continued, and tokenized oil trading volumes exploded to $3B per day. The money is here. It's waiting for direction. Capital on Standby, Direction Set by Oil Total stablecoin supply has reached a new all-time high of approximately $316.8 billion, yet only $0.8 billion has been minted over the past 30 days. USDC lending rates have ticked up to 4.2% from 3.8% last week, signaling rising borrowing demand. Capital has not left the crypto ecosystem. It is parked, waiting for a deployment trigger that the macro environment has so far refused to provide. On-Chain: Accumulation Without Catalyst BTC exchange balances have fallen to their lowest level since 2019. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC increased positions by 2.3% last week. Late March saw an 8,400 BTC single-day exchange outflow, the largest in three weeks. This points to steady institutional-grade accumulation, but long-horizon positioning of this nature does not by itself catalyze near-term price recovery. On the ETF front, Bitcoin spot ETFs posted their first positive monthly net inflow since last November (+$1.32B in March), while Ethereum ETF outflows narrowed to their smallest since November, with the most recent week flipping positive. Price is sitting on a key support zone while smart money is incrementally adding exposure. But the market does not lack capital. It lacks direction. And that direction is currently being set by oil. Tokenized Oil Surges into Crypto's Liquidation Spotlight Among the $403 million in total liquidations on April 2, Hyperliquid's tokenized Brent oil contract (BRENTOIL-USDC) accounted for $46.6 million in forced closures, ranking third behind ETH ( ETH-USD ) ($104.5M) and BTC ( BTC-USD ) ($98.3M). The single largest liquidation across the entire event was a $17.17 million oil position on Hyp...