Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images Performance During the first quarter of 2026 Night Watch Investment Management LP appreciated by 2.69% net of fees. Night Watch Investment Partners LP – Net Performance (in USD) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 2024 -0.82% 0.58% 7.09% -0.24% 5.14% -5.20% 9.11% -0.23% -1.34% -2.40% 2.10% -2.92% 10.30% 2025 2.56% -0.45% -4.12% 1.03% 8.94% 12.04% ...
Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images Performance During the first quarter of 2026 Night Watch Investment Management LP appreciated by 2.69% net of fees. Night Watch Investment Partners LP – Net Performance (in USD) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 2024 -0.82% 0.58% 7.09% -0.24% 5.14% -5.20% 9.11% -0.23% -1.34% -2.40% 2.10% -2.92% 10.30% 2025 2.56% -0.45% -4.12% 1.03% 8.94% 12.04% 0.14% 3.06% 1.04% -4.46% 2.90% -0.12% 23.61% 2026 6.44% 3.74% -6.99% 2.69% Since Inception, Total: 40.03% Since Inception, CAGR: 16.14% Click to enlarge The first quarter of 2026 was more volatile than we were used to. In a market that is increasingly narrative driven, as opposed to earnings driven, the focus in January and February was on companies that were at risk of being disrupted by AI. Fortunately, we don’t own a lot of those, and we benefited as the market sought shelter in physical, if-you-drop-it-on-your-foot-it-hurts kind of businesses. Of course this was followed by the war in Iran in March. The impact of higher oil prices then caused a correction in many of those physical businesses, meaning we gave back a significant amount of our YTD gains. Like April of last year, when the market experienced elevated volatility following liberation day, we are cognizant that we have no edge in predicting Trump’s next tweet and timing the market seems like a lost cause. Instead, our edge is in finding individual businesses where earnings are about to inflect higher. By understanding the main drivers of most of our companies, and by having an extensive watchlist of companies that we've known for years and where we have quick access to management if we need it, we can pivot our portfolio quickly if the environment changes. Position Highlights We booked very strong performance on our position in Brookdale ( BKD ), an operator of senior living facilities. We have previously spoken about a looming shortage in senior living facilities. As the first baby boomers are turning 80-years...
AlexSecret/E+ via Getty Images Summary Points Geopolitics dominated the quarter, as Venezuela, Greenland-related tariff tensions, and the Iran conflict disrupted trade routes, triggered an oil shock and revived stagflation concerns globally. The US economy remained broadly resilient, though growth slowed, labour markets softened at the margin, inflation stayed above target and the policy mix becam...
AlexSecret/E+ via Getty Images Summary Points Geopolitics dominated the quarter, as Venezuela, Greenland-related tariff tensions, and the Iran conflict disrupted trade routes, triggered an oil shock and revived stagflation concerns globally. The US economy remained broadly resilient, though growth slowed, labour markets softened at the margin, inflation stayed above target and the policy mix became increasingly politicised. Europe improved modestly from a lower base, supported by easing inflation, recovering PMIs and tighter peripheral spreads, before the Iran-driven energy shock revived stagflation concerns. China and Asia showed mixed but stable growth, with China near 5%, supported by exports and policy easing, despite weak demand and Strait of Hormuz-related energy risks. Markets were initially supported by resilient growth and improving earnings breadth, but rising oil prices, AI-led disruption and geopolitical escalation increased dispersion across sectors, styles and regions. Conclusion: While a severe recession remains unlikely, volatility has risen meaningfully and tail risks are no longer negligible. We have reduced market exposure, emphasizing on capital preservation. Within credit, selectivity and diversification remain essential. We continue to favour shorter-duration investment grade and high yield bonds as well as senior secured loans. In equities, we favour active rotation over broad beta. In this volatile environment, capital preservation remains paramount, while retaining flexibility to add equities and longer-duration bonds at more attractive levels if market weakness deepens. Markets under geopolitical fire Global markets began 2026 in a paradoxical environment of macroeconomic resilience overshadowed by intensifying geopolitical shocks. Given the elevated uncertainty, our current outlook is strongly scenario-based, reflecting the wide range of potential outcomes across risk dimensions. Growth across major economies remained broadly intact, with ...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The stocks with the highest short interest come from a broad mix within the consumer staples sector, with no single industry standing out or dominating the list in terms of positioning, according to March-end figures. Among the most shorted stocks, Brown-Forman ( BF.B ) leads with 16.67% of shares outstanding sold short, signaling elevated skept...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The stocks with the highest short interest come from a broad mix within the consumer staples sector, with no single industry standing out or dominating the list in terms of positioning, according to March-end figures. Among the most shorted stocks, Brown-Forman ( BF.B ) leads with 16.67% of shares outstanding sold short, signaling elevated skepticism around demand trends in premium alcohol. In contrast, the least shorted names reflect strong investor confidence and perceived stability. These least shorted, famous names remain among the most defensively positioned. Here are the five most shorted industrial stocks with market capitalizations above $2B (as a percentage of shares outstanding) Brown-Forman ( BF.B ), Short interest: 16.67% The Campbell's Company ( CPB ), Short interest: 13.34% The Boston Beer Company ( SAM ),Short interest: 11.90% Kimberly-Clark ( KMB ), Short interest: 11.65% Sprouts Farmers Market ( SPB ), Short interest: 11.62% Here are the five least shorted industrial stocks with market capitalizations above $2B (as a percentage of shares outstanding) Smithfield Foods ( SFD ), Short interest: 0.85% Adecoagro ( AGRO ), Short interest: 0.90% Walmart ( WMT ), Short interest: 0.95% The Procter & Gamble ( PG ), Short interest: 0.99% Philip Morris ( PM ), Short interest: 1.05% ETFs linked to consumer staples: ( VDC ), ( XLP ), ( IYK ), ( FXG ), ( PBJ ), ( FTXG ), ( KXI ). More on consumer staples Gen Z Is Threatening The Alcohol Industry Consumer Staples Positioned For A Better-Than-Expected 2026 Wall Street Lunch: Staples Overtake Mag 7 Ex-Tesla On Forward Valuation Consumer staples win on defensive bets in Q1; Bunge, ADM lead gains S&P 500 logs weakest Q1 performance since 2022 - here’s what drove the moves
To get John Authers’ newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here . Today’s Points: War continues in Iran; the US successfully rescued a downed airman. Trump tells Iran to “Open the F****** Strait” by Tuesday. Otherwise Tuesday is “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day wrapped in one.” US stock futures suggest a tough opening on Monday. Despite all this, employment numbers in March looked gr...
To get John Authers’ newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here . Today’s Points: War continues in Iran; the US successfully rescued a downed airman. Trump tells Iran to “Open the F****** Strait” by Tuesday. Otherwise Tuesday is “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day wrapped in one.” US stock futures suggest a tough opening on Monday. Despite all this, employment numbers in March looked great. AND: Maybe it’s time to listen to the pope . Time to Sell the F****** Market? Last week, the global stock market reacted to some noises out of Iran suggesting that a negotiated settlement could happen as though it marked a major inflection point in the war. After the best rally in months on Tuesday, those gains stayed intact into the quiet Easter weekend period: Will that judgment hold up? As trading begins to resume — while many nations are off for Easter Monday — traders will have to digest the news that: Iran brought down two US warplanes, and American special forces rescued the weapons officer of an F-15E after a harrowing two days. The US destroyed the biggest bridge in Iran. Iranian forces ramped up attacks on Gulf energy facilities . And President Donald J. Trump, after convincing nobody in his speech Wednesday, told Iran to “Open the f****** Strait!” (there were no asterisks in his original post) or Tuesday would see attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges. He concluded: “You'll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.” After all that, it seems fair to worry that Holy Week’s optimism might have dissipated by the time traders get to their desks again. Brent crude rebounded after Trump’s unfocused televised address Wednesday, and advanced further at the start of Monday’s trading in Asia: Prediction markets similarly viewed that TV appearance very negatively. Bettors on Polymarket sharply marked down the chances of a ceasefire this month, or by the end of June — which is now seen as only a 50/50 shot: A war that endures beyond June would be a disast...
English-speaking con artists have targeted university students seeking summer internships, using a bogus 40-minute orientation session to make their dubious job offers appear genuine, Hong Kong police have warned. The force issued the alert after a 19-year-old university first-year student fell for a dubious job offer last month and lost nearly HK$190,000, saying the scammers had prepared detailed...
English-speaking con artists have targeted university students seeking summer internships, using a bogus 40-minute orientation session to make their dubious job offers appear genuine, Hong Kong police have warned. The force issued the alert after a 19-year-old university first-year student fell for a dubious job offer last month and lost nearly HK$190,000, saying the scammers had prepared detailed scripts to deceive her and conducted the fraudulent recruitment process in English. The force’s...
As a 600-page doorstopper celebrates their groundbreaking costumes, gigs, sleeves and videos, the duo talk about ‘side-stepping the pop-star thing’ – and the naked trampolinist EMI had to censor In 1988, when he was 20, Wolfgang Tillmans tore an A0 poster off a building site hoarding and nailed it to a wall in his flat in Hamburg. It was advertising Pet Shop Boys’ new album, Introspective, and con...
As a 600-page doorstopper celebrates their groundbreaking costumes, gigs, sleeves and videos, the duo talk about ‘side-stepping the pop-star thing’ – and the naked trampolinist EMI had to censor In 1988, when he was 20, Wolfgang Tillmans tore an A0 poster off a building site hoarding and nailed it to a wall in his flat in Hamburg. It was advertising Pet Shop Boys’ new album, Introspective, and consisted of thick vertical bars in different colours. “It was just so cool in the context of the time,” the artist says today, admiring how the pop group had gone “one level more abstract”. Around the same time in Doncaster, teenager Alasdair McLellan – now an A-list fashion photographer – was impressed by the clothes of Pet Shop Boys’ keyboard-player Chris Lowe; for instance the cap, stripy T-shirt and Issey Miyake glasses on the cover of their single Suburbia. “I always thought he was the best-dressed man of the 80s,” McLellan says. “Obviously, he just stood there playing the keyboard and I always noticed what he was wearing, especially all that sportswear stuff. He just seemed to do it better than everyone else.” McLellan couldn’t get style magazines in his village, so his visual education came from pop and the music press. “I got into photography through album covers, Smash Hits and NME.” Continue reading...
Artem Khrebet emerged victorious from what organisers say was world-first competitive bout between double amputees Footwork decides a boxing match, they say. In Ukraine, the tired cliche took on a new meaning. On Saturday, two Ukrainian war veterans faced off on prosthetic legs in what organisers called the world’s first competitive bout between double-amputee fighters. Top: Artem Khrebet (left) a...
Artem Khrebet emerged victorious from what organisers say was world-first competitive bout between double amputees Footwork decides a boxing match, they say. In Ukraine, the tired cliche took on a new meaning. On Saturday, two Ukrainian war veterans faced off on prosthetic legs in what organisers called the world’s first competitive bout between double-amputee fighters. Top: Artem Khrebet (left) and Mykhailo Drobotenko (right), both war veterans, during the weigh-in ceremony Continue reading...
The heroine of Roman Holiday and Breakfast at Tiffany’s knew war and poverty, riches and fame, love and betrayal – yet claimed to have lived a ‘terribly boring’ life. Sean Hepburn Ferrer paints a very different picture in his new biography Growing up, Sean Hepburn Ferrer says he never felt like the son of a movie star – but he very much is. His mother was Audrey Hepburn, one of the biggest names i...
The heroine of Roman Holiday and Breakfast at Tiffany’s knew war and poverty, riches and fame, love and betrayal – yet claimed to have lived a ‘terribly boring’ life. Sean Hepburn Ferrer paints a very different picture in his new biography Growing up, Sean Hepburn Ferrer says he never felt like the son of a movie star – but he very much is. His mother was Audrey Hepburn, one of the biggest names in the golden age of Hollywood, an Oscar-winner, a screen star and a fashion icon. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world recognise her from classics such as Roman Holiday, Funny Face and My Fair Lady – besotted with the way she laughs, dances, or poses tastefully in Givenchy couture. Audrey’s image is so ubiquitous in posters, art prints, magazines, on handbags, keyrings or T-shirts, that the family has made hunting for her likeness into a game. “I must have made this crack to my kids,” Sean says. “We were probably waiting for a train or a plane that had been delayed: ‘Three minutes to find Grandma.’ And it became a thing. Now the kids are grown-up, but they do it on their own. I do it by myself and send a snapshot to my wife and we giggle privately.” Continue reading...
Union says new entitlements, part of Employment Rights Act 2025, will help lower-income households Up to 9.6 million UK workers are to benefit from the changes to sick pay rules, according to unions. They say the policy has widespread support from voters despite pushback from some businesses. From Monday, about 8.4 million workers who rely on statutory sick pay – the minimum amount employers must ...
Union says new entitlements, part of Employment Rights Act 2025, will help lower-income households Up to 9.6 million UK workers are to benefit from the changes to sick pay rules, according to unions. They say the policy has widespread support from voters despite pushback from some businesses. From Monday, about 8.4 million workers who rely on statutory sick pay – the minimum amount employers must pay – will be paid from the first day of becoming ill rather than from day four, according to an analysis by the Trades Union Congress (TUC). Continue reading...
Our world feels chaotic, confusing and unfair, but puzzles offer clear rules, solvable problems and reward for effort expended Maybe you’ve noticed it too. Everyone seems to have become fixated on puzzle games. In the morning, over coffee, I play Word Wheel on the Guardian app. Over lunch, colleagues compare notes on Tradle , the game where you guess a country from its exports. Which place exports...
Our world feels chaotic, confusing and unfair, but puzzles offer clear rules, solvable problems and reward for effort expended Maybe you’ve noticed it too. Everyone seems to have become fixated on puzzle games. In the morning, over coffee, I play Word Wheel on the Guardian app. Over lunch, colleagues compare notes on Tradle , the game where you guess a country from its exports. Which place exports about 45% fish and 50% crustaceans? Greenland. Another friend can’t fall asleep without her nightly Sudoku ritual. The online puzzle craze took off during the Covid pandemic, and it shows no sign of slowing down. New York Times subscribers now spend more time playing puzzles on the app than reading the news. Sales of quiz books hit a record last year, up 24% from 2024. Continue reading...