Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures 6,650.75 +0.4% Nikkei 225 53,413.68 +0.5% Bitcoin $69,862.54 +3.3% Spot gold $4,703.78 +0.6% Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1,213.34 -0.2% Market data as of 05:34 AM ET. Data is subject to provider delays. Five things you need to know Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium. Still, it was about half the level anticipated in ...
Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures 6,650.75 +0.4% Nikkei 225 53,413.68 +0.5% Bitcoin $69,862.54 +3.3% Spot gold $4,703.78 +0.6% Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1,213.34 -0.2% Market data as of 05:34 AM ET. Data is subject to provider delays. Five things you need to know Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium. Still, it was about half the level anticipated in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, with this month hard to gauge given market volatility. US stock futures rose in early trading. Investors were focused on an Axios report that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Trading was thin, with markets in Europe and Asia still closed. President Donald Trump is planning a news conference at 1 p.m. Washington on Monday. Over the weekend, he issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants and bring “Hell” to the country. The Indian rupee extended its biggest rally in 12 years after the central bank doubled down on curbing speculation against the local currency. Hedge funds have turned net bullish on wheat for the first time in nearly four years, betting on higher prices driven by dry weather in the US and a shortage of fertilizer and fuel. Energy squeeze Oil markets have been pitched into turmoil by the war in Iran, and the effects will likely be long lasting and far reaching. After a meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ warned that the damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the conflict ends. And with US inflation data coming out later this week, the sudden increase in gasoline prices felt by American consumers is set to be on full display. Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon. As the war grinds on, there are signs of acute concern about near-term supp...
Kwarkot/iStock via Getty Images A few weeks ago, Raymond James upgraded a REIT with a unique-sounding name, Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. ( PINE ). However, this company does not invest in pine trees or the Swiss Alps! Actually, Pine is a Florida-based REIT, according to its SA profile , with a market cap of $295MM and a focus on “single tenant net leased commercial income properties.” Since ...
Kwarkot/iStock via Getty Images A few weeks ago, Raymond James upgraded a REIT with a unique-sounding name, Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. ( PINE ). However, this company does not invest in pine trees or the Swiss Alps! Actually, Pine is a Florida-based REIT, according to its SA profile , with a market cap of $295MM and a focus on “single tenant net leased commercial income properties.” Since my June 2025 coverage , when I called it a buy, it is up nearly +21%, proving my bullish case and the market's confidence in this REIT. What drove my positive view of this REIT was a diverse tenant exposure nationally, high occupancy, and top-tier tenant names in retail. This time around, I considered some points from the early-February earnings results , as well as previewing what could be in store for the upcoming late-April earnings call, reviewing this stock across 8 fundamental and technical analysis topics. Thesis Summary For my follow-up article today, despite updated research and data, I continue to call this stock a buy, agreeing with the overwhelming bullish consensus heading into the Easter weekend. My rating worksheet below shows how each of my 8 rating categories drove the overall score and what topics I pulled actionable insights from. Pine - rating worksheet (author) The key “actionable insight” for my readers is that the retail sector could continue to benefit from a strong US consumer, while this specific REIT continues to be on a portfolio growth spree and has shown it can grow FFO as well as dividends, although some technical charting patterns show its recent bullish streak being tested somewhat lately, which is understandable given the market dynamics of the last few weeks. Macro & Sector Trends Starting out with a wide view, here I discuss the macro and sector factors impacting this stock, and based on my research, I am bullish here. From this REIT's property portfolio , we can get a sense that this REIT is quite diversified across a large part of the U...
Life for Hong Kong-based Iranian biomedical researcher Behzad Nasiri Ahmadabadi is filled with anxiety as he spends each day waiting for a call from his family that may not come amid the conflict in the Middle East. The stress is similar for Iranian student Ali*, who spends his days scrolling through news reports from across the world to piece together events on the ground and lies awake at night ...
Life for Hong Kong-based Iranian biomedical researcher Behzad Nasiri Ahmadabadi is filled with anxiety as he spends each day waiting for a call from his family that may not come amid the conflict in the Middle East. The stress is similar for Iranian student Ali*, who spends his days scrolling through news reports from across the world to piece together events on the ground and lies awake at night thinking about what they mean. Young Iranians in Hong Kong are dealing with the conflict in a...
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images Congratulations to the US military for the successful rescue of the second airman this weekend in Iraq. That had to be a big moment and a huge morale booster for the military and the teams that were sent in to find the airman. (“No Person Left Behind”: Gotta love the US military.) With Monday morning, April 6th, we’ll see the market reaction to the event...
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images Congratulations to the US military for the successful rescue of the second airman this weekend in Iraq. That had to be a big moment and a huge morale booster for the military and the teams that were sent in to find the airman. (“No Person Left Behind”: Gotta love the US military.) With Monday morning, April 6th, we’ll see the market reaction to the events over the long weekend, although it doesn’t seem like much has changed around the Strait of Hormuz. From the basic statistics being read around the Strait, about 20% of the world’s crude oil production flows through the Strait, which is not insignificant. So how does this impact international equity and fixed income? Well, when the first air strike by the US and Israeli Air Force hit Iran on February 27th-28th, 2026, crude oil spiked, interest rates across the globe started to rise, and the dollar started to strengthen. As we saw in March, none of the above-referenced factors is typically good for equity and/or bond investing. What was really hurtful for the international equity and bond asset classes - the groups were coming off their best year in 2025 since 2005-2006. International had good momentum, and then it all stopped on a dime on February 27th. That being said, here’s the annual return data for international equity: As of 3/31/26, all of these various international equity mutual funds (with one exception) and ETFs had positive YTD ’26 returns, which means that the asset class still handily beat the S&P 500, even though most are well off their highs. This blog’s largest international asset class holdings are the same (JPMorgan Int’l Developed Value ( JFEAX ), iShares EM ex-China ETF ( EMXC ), and a smaller position in the iShares MSCI Japan ETF ( EWJ ), as they were last year when the asset class was written about here , here , and here . These three previous posts were from late 2025, but here’s a post from late 2024 . Summary When Maduro’s rendition back to the U...
After years trading securities in New York for Oppenheimer & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Esteban Nofal ’s hunt for returns has brought him home to Argentina. President Javier Milei ’s mission to move the country to a free market is laying a path for contrarian investors like Nofal, as the shifting economy leaves some companies in ruins while spurring an extended period of deal flow in oil and mining. ...
After years trading securities in New York for Oppenheimer & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Esteban Nofal ’s hunt for returns has brought him home to Argentina. President Javier Milei ’s mission to move the country to a free market is laying a path for contrarian investors like Nofal, as the shifting economy leaves some companies in ruins while spurring an extended period of deal flow in oil and mining. Nofal is currently trying to turn around Celulosa Argentina SA , a century-old pulp and paper maker that filed for bankruptcy protection, blaming its collapse on the business climate under Milei. He acquired a controlling stake late last year for $1 and is negotiating with Celulosa’s creditors as his investor group injects fresh capital and weighs long-term expansion. The 59-year-old acknowledges the risks but says he knows a deal when he sees one. “If you are born in Argentina and care about finance, distress is what you breathe,” Nofal said. “To me, the best asset you can have as an investor is buying cheap.” Nofal spent only a month looking into Celulosa before reaching an agreement. The day he signed, the CEO received a call from a group that had been doing due diligence for the previous five months, saying that they were ready to make a deal. But they’d taken too long. “A lot of people that manage money have that attitude toward private equity in countries like Argentina,” Nofal said in an interview at the offices of his fund, Cima Investments SA , in Buenos Aires. “You can’t be someone that consults advisory firms. You need to be nimble. You need to make decisions on the hour.” Nofal said he’s happy with how the early stages of the takeover have gone and expects Argentina’s economy to improve soon, providing a boost. Although oil, mining and finance are booming under Milei, other industries like manufacturing have shrunk and unemployment jumped to 7.5% at the end of last year. Just months before the Celulosa deal, Nofal swooped in on the biggest corporate default in A...
Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Politics has established a new routine. Right at 12 noon, prices at German gas stations now rise day after day. The government’s pricing decree, a hastily assembled mechanism, acts like an accelerant in an already dramatically strained fuel supply situation. Anyone with rudimentary...
Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Politics has established a new routine. Right at 12 noon, prices at German gas stations now rise day after day. The government’s pricing decree, a hastily assembled mechanism, acts like an accelerant in an already dramatically strained fuel supply situation. Anyone with rudimentary economic understanding already knew that this form of price regulation would amount to political posturing with fatal consequences. The market is reacting as expected. Gas station operators anticipate general price increases and indirectly coordinate their pricing behavior. If everyone is only allowed to raise prices once per day, that shot will be fired deliberately — better too high than too low. After that, it becomes a waiting game, observing how competitors react. If the next move can only be a price reduction, the risk can be solved in simple game-theoretical terms: prices are simply kept high as long as competitors do not move. This creates a cartel-like situation that avoids the risk of rapid price cuts and the resulting loss of individual margins. Market dynamics thus turn into generalized tactical hesitation. At the same time, political leadership is marked by a striking lack of direction in the face of real scarcity and a rapidly worsening supply situation. Hormuz is exposing the limits of political emergency measures. The measures taken so far by the German government to curb rising prices are classic political camouflage — a well-rehearsed play for the public. The fundamental question of how to deal with energy imports is not being seriously addressed. Europe must import 60 percent of its energy to meet demand. And the stubborn stance toward Russia, Europe’s most important supplier of energy and raw materials, will likely prove to be the most fatal mistake of European policy — quite an achievement, given that it is already riddled with misjudgments and ideolog...
OpenAI has released a set of policy recommendations meant to help navigate an era of artificial intelligence-fueled upheaval — including suggesting the creation of a public wealth fund, fast-response social safety net programs and speedier electrical grid development. In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a ra...
OpenAI has released a set of policy recommendations meant to help navigate an era of artificial intelligence-fueled upheaval — including suggesting the creation of a public wealth fund, fast-response social safety net programs and speedier electrical grid development. In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a range of policies related to AI “superintelligence” — often referred to as software that can outperform humans at all kinds of tasks, but which does not currently exist. Many of the proposals are tied to social change driven by AI, which some fear could lead to widespread job losses. The company advocates for a public wealth fund that will distribute cash to citizens, giving them “a stake in AI-driven economic growth.” It proposes finding a way to let people share in efficiency gains driven by AI — including by incentivizing employers to experiment with four-day work weeks, as long as workers’ output doesn’t fall. And it suggests actively measuring how AI affects wages and unemployment — and then, once “these metrics exceed pre-defined thresholds,” offering workers increased social assistance like unemployment benefits or job training. The goal of the proposals, the company wrote, is to serve as a “starting point” for a wider discussion “to ensure that AI benefits everyone.” In an interview, OpenAI’s chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane said the policy conversations around AI need to be “as transformative” as the technology itself. Founded in 2015, OpenAI kicked off the current boom in generative AI in late 2022 with the release of ChatGPT, which remains its most well-known product. Originally built as a nonprofit dedicated to advancing AI to benefit humanity, the startup has since restructured into a more traditional for-profit company. OpenAI has said for years that it’s working to build what’s often referred to as artificial general intelligence, or AGI — essentially,...