Life for Hong Kong-based Iranian biomedical researcher Behzad Nasiri Ahmadabadi is filled with anxiety as he spends each day waiting for a call from his family that may not come amid the conflict in the Middle East. The stress is similar for Iranian student Ali*, who spends his days scrolling through news reports from across the world to piece together events on the ground and lies awake at night ...
Life for Hong Kong-based Iranian biomedical researcher Behzad Nasiri Ahmadabadi is filled with anxiety as he spends each day waiting for a call from his family that may not come amid the conflict in the Middle East. The stress is similar for Iranian student Ali*, who spends his days scrolling through news reports from across the world to piece together events on the ground and lies awake at night thinking about what they mean. Young Iranians in Hong Kong are dealing with the conflict in a...
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images Congratulations to the US military for the successful rescue of the second airman this weekend in Iraq. That had to be a big moment and a huge morale booster for the military and the teams that were sent in to find the airman. (“No Person Left Behind”: Gotta love the US military.) With Monday morning, April 6th, we’ll see the market reaction to the event...
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images Congratulations to the US military for the successful rescue of the second airman this weekend in Iraq. That had to be a big moment and a huge morale booster for the military and the teams that were sent in to find the airman. (“No Person Left Behind”: Gotta love the US military.) With Monday morning, April 6th, we’ll see the market reaction to the events over the long weekend, although it doesn’t seem like much has changed around the Strait of Hormuz. From the basic statistics being read around the Strait, about 20% of the world’s crude oil production flows through the Strait, which is not insignificant. So how does this impact international equity and fixed income? Well, when the first air strike by the US and Israeli Air Force hit Iran on February 27th-28th, 2026, crude oil spiked, interest rates across the globe started to rise, and the dollar started to strengthen. As we saw in March, none of the above-referenced factors is typically good for equity and/or bond investing. What was really hurtful for the international equity and bond asset classes - the groups were coming off their best year in 2025 since 2005-2006. International had good momentum, and then it all stopped on a dime on February 27th. That being said, here’s the annual return data for international equity: As of 3/31/26, all of these various international equity mutual funds (with one exception) and ETFs had positive YTD ’26 returns, which means that the asset class still handily beat the S&P 500, even though most are well off their highs. This blog’s largest international asset class holdings are the same (JPMorgan Int’l Developed Value ( JFEAX ), iShares EM ex-China ETF ( EMXC ), and a smaller position in the iShares MSCI Japan ETF ( EWJ ), as they were last year when the asset class was written about here , here , and here . These three previous posts were from late 2025, but here’s a post from late 2024 . Summary When Maduro’s rendition back to the U...
After years trading securities in New York for Oppenheimer & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Esteban Nofal ’s hunt for returns has brought him home to Argentina. President Javier Milei ’s mission to move the country to a free market is laying a path for contrarian investors like Nofal, as the shifting economy leaves some companies in ruins while spurring an extended period of deal flow in oil and mining. ...
After years trading securities in New York for Oppenheimer & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Esteban Nofal ’s hunt for returns has brought him home to Argentina. President Javier Milei ’s mission to move the country to a free market is laying a path for contrarian investors like Nofal, as the shifting economy leaves some companies in ruins while spurring an extended period of deal flow in oil and mining. Nofal is currently trying to turn around Celulosa Argentina SA , a century-old pulp and paper maker that filed for bankruptcy protection, blaming its collapse on the business climate under Milei. He acquired a controlling stake late last year for $1 and is negotiating with Celulosa’s creditors as his investor group injects fresh capital and weighs long-term expansion. The 59-year-old acknowledges the risks but says he knows a deal when he sees one. “If you are born in Argentina and care about finance, distress is what you breathe,” Nofal said. “To me, the best asset you can have as an investor is buying cheap.” Nofal spent only a month looking into Celulosa before reaching an agreement. The day he signed, the CEO received a call from a group that had been doing due diligence for the previous five months, saying that they were ready to make a deal. But they’d taken too long. “A lot of people that manage money have that attitude toward private equity in countries like Argentina,” Nofal said in an interview at the offices of his fund, Cima Investments SA , in Buenos Aires. “You can’t be someone that consults advisory firms. You need to be nimble. You need to make decisions on the hour.” Nofal said he’s happy with how the early stages of the takeover have gone and expects Argentina’s economy to improve soon, providing a boost. Although oil, mining and finance are booming under Milei, other industries like manufacturing have shrunk and unemployment jumped to 7.5% at the end of last year. Just months before the Celulosa deal, Nofal swooped in on the biggest corporate default in A...
Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Politics has established a new routine. Right at 12 noon, prices at German gas stations now rise day after day. The government’s pricing decree, a hastily assembled mechanism, acts like an accelerant in an already dramatically strained fuel supply situation. Anyone with rudimentary...
Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Politics has established a new routine. Right at 12 noon, prices at German gas stations now rise day after day. The government’s pricing decree, a hastily assembled mechanism, acts like an accelerant in an already dramatically strained fuel supply situation. Anyone with rudimentary economic understanding already knew that this form of price regulation would amount to political posturing with fatal consequences. The market is reacting as expected. Gas station operators anticipate general price increases and indirectly coordinate their pricing behavior. If everyone is only allowed to raise prices once per day, that shot will be fired deliberately — better too high than too low. After that, it becomes a waiting game, observing how competitors react. If the next move can only be a price reduction, the risk can be solved in simple game-theoretical terms: prices are simply kept high as long as competitors do not move. This creates a cartel-like situation that avoids the risk of rapid price cuts and the resulting loss of individual margins. Market dynamics thus turn into generalized tactical hesitation. At the same time, political leadership is marked by a striking lack of direction in the face of real scarcity and a rapidly worsening supply situation. Hormuz is exposing the limits of political emergency measures. The measures taken so far by the German government to curb rising prices are classic political camouflage — a well-rehearsed play for the public. The fundamental question of how to deal with energy imports is not being seriously addressed. Europe must import 60 percent of its energy to meet demand. And the stubborn stance toward Russia, Europe’s most important supplier of energy and raw materials, will likely prove to be the most fatal mistake of European policy — quite an achievement, given that it is already riddled with misjudgments and ideolog...
OpenAI has released a set of policy recommendations meant to help navigate an era of artificial intelligence-fueled upheaval — including suggesting the creation of a public wealth fund, fast-response social safety net programs and speedier electrical grid development. In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a ra...
OpenAI has released a set of policy recommendations meant to help navigate an era of artificial intelligence-fueled upheaval — including suggesting the creation of a public wealth fund, fast-response social safety net programs and speedier electrical grid development. In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a range of policies related to AI “superintelligence” — often referred to as software that can outperform humans at all kinds of tasks, but which does not currently exist. Many of the proposals are tied to social change driven by AI, which some fear could lead to widespread job losses. The company advocates for a public wealth fund that will distribute cash to citizens, giving them “a stake in AI-driven economic growth.” It proposes finding a way to let people share in efficiency gains driven by AI — including by incentivizing employers to experiment with four-day work weeks, as long as workers’ output doesn’t fall. And it suggests actively measuring how AI affects wages and unemployment — and then, once “these metrics exceed pre-defined thresholds,” offering workers increased social assistance like unemployment benefits or job training. The goal of the proposals, the company wrote, is to serve as a “starting point” for a wider discussion “to ensure that AI benefits everyone.” In an interview, OpenAI’s chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane said the policy conversations around AI need to be “as transformative” as the technology itself. Founded in 2015, OpenAI kicked off the current boom in generative AI in late 2022 with the release of ChatGPT, which remains its most well-known product. Originally built as a nonprofit dedicated to advancing AI to benefit humanity, the startup has since restructured into a more traditional for-profit company. OpenAI has said for years that it’s working to build what’s often referred to as artificial general intelligence, or AGI — essentially,...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla ( TSLA ) recorded a sharp surge in South Korea sales in March, numbers more than quadrupled to 11,130 units last month from 2,591 a year earlier. The surge is attributed to aggressive price cuts on key models such as the Model Y and Model 3, along with strong demand for imported electric vehicles in South Korea. Model Y Premium and Model 3 varia...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla ( TSLA ) recorded a sharp surge in South Korea sales in March, numbers more than quadrupled to 11,130 units last month from 2,591 a year earlier. The surge is attributed to aggressive price cuts on key models such as the Model Y and Model 3, along with strong demand for imported electric vehicles in South Korea. Model Y Premium and Model 3 variants were the top‑selling imported cars in March. The Model Y Premium sold the most at 5,517 units. The Model 3 Premium Long Range came in at 1,905, and the Model 3 at 1,255, according to a local newspaper. Tesla’s ( TSLA ) performance helped overall imported‑car registrations in South Korea rise about 34–35% Y/Y in March to roughly 33,970 units, the highest monthly level on record. Earlier this year, regulatory filings revealed that the company is preparing to introduce the Model Y L in South Korea after launches in Thailand and Malaysia. More on Tesla Tesla: Finally Catching Up To Reality Tesla: This Is Not The Right Time To Buy The Dip Tesla May Beat Deliveries, But This Could Hurt The Bottom Line SA Asks: What's next for Tesla following a tepid EV deliveries report? ETFs tied to Tesla slide as the EV maker's delivery miss pressures stock