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This is the forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha. A new version is published every market day. Please don't leave political comments on other articles or posts on the site. The comments below are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site, and this is an 'enter at your own risk' area as discussion can get very heated. If you can't stand the heat... you know what they say... More on Today's Markets: Moderation Guidelines: We remove comments under the following categories: Personal attacks on another user account Anti-Vaxxer or covid related misinformation Stereotyping, prejudiced or racist language about individuals or the topic under discussion. Inciting violence messages, encouraging hate groups and political violence. Regardless of which side of the political divide you find yourself, please be courteous and don't direct abuse at other users. For any issue with regards to comments please email us at : moderation@seekingalpha.com. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
kyoshino/E+ via Getty Images 8:30 AM CPI The CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. The consensus sees CPI up a huge 0.9 percent on the month and an uncomfortable 0.3 percent excluding food and energy. The consensus sees CPI up 3.4 percent ...
kyoshino/E+ via Getty Images 8:30 AM CPI The CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. The consensus sees CPI up a huge 0.9 percent on the month and an uncomfortable 0.3 percent excluding food and energy. The consensus sees CPI up 3.4 percent on the year and 2.7 percent ex-food and energy. Retail gas prices have been reported up 25 percent for March, and everyone is watching to see how much the energy shock spreads. These numbers keep the Fed on hold for now and considering rate hikes if it persists. 10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions households each month on their assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions. The Iran war and soaring gas prices are expected to depress sentiment in the preliminary April reading to 52.0 from 53.3 in the March final. 10:00 AM Factory Orders Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. A moderate 0.4 percent increase on the month is the call for February after a 0.1 percent uptick in January. 1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count The Baker Hughes North American rig count tracks weekly changes in the number of active operating oil & gas rigs. More on U.S. Markets Weak Dollar Is The Real Threat To The U.S. Stock Market Fed Walks A Policy Tightrope As Iran Conflict Clouds The Outlook Volatility Falls On Ceasefire Hopes, Yet Caution Remains The stock market has triggered its first ‘proper buy signal’ since Liberation Day – HSBC’s Kettner The inflation process has shifted even as headline CPI declined – Federal Reserve
atakan/iStock via Getty Images ABBV stock: FQ1 earnings expected on April 29 I last covered AbbVie Inc. ( ABBV )( ABBV:CA ) on Feb 26 with an article titled “Health Care Q4 Dividend Roundup: Merck Offers Thicker Dividend Cushion Than AbbVie”. The article served as a review of ABBV’s 2025 FQ4 earnings report (ER) and rated the stock as a hold. Since then, a few new catalysts have been evolving arou...
atakan/iStock via Getty Images ABBV stock: FQ1 earnings expected on April 29 I last covered AbbVie Inc. ( ABBV )( ABBV:CA ) on Feb 26 with an article titled “Health Care Q4 Dividend Roundup: Merck Offers Thicker Dividend Cushion Than AbbVie”. The article served as a review of ABBV’s 2025 FQ4 earnings report (ER) and rated the stock as a hold. Since then, a few new catalysts have been evolving around the stock and motivated this follow-up. In the rest of this article, I will focus on the top 3 as I see: the company’s upcoming FQ1 2026 earnings report, the competition dynamics for its immunology portfolio (especially between its Skyrizi franchise vs. JNJ’s Tremfya and Icotyde), and also the latest dividend declaration. In the end, an examination of these changes has led me to see a high-quality dividend stock trading at a fair valuation and thus to maintain a neutral rating. Let me start with the upcoming FQ1 ER scheduled on April 29, 2026. As shown in the following snapshot, analysts anticipate a normalized EPS estimate of $2.93, representing a robust year-over-year growth of 19.1% compared to the previous year’s figure of $2.46. Revenue is projected to reach $14.72 billion, also signaling a double-digit YOY increase of 10.3% compared to the previous year’s figure of $13.34 billion. Sentiment appears cautious as reflected in the revisions over the last 90 days, which show only 3 upward revisions against 9 downward moves. Next, I will further discuss the implications of these projected growth rates. Seeking Alpha ABBV stock: dividend declaration signals growth recovery Despite the mixed revisions, I consider the current forecasts as a sign for a recovery of ABBV’s growth. Given ABBV’s track record of dividend growth, I will rely on its dividend data to make my argument here. For readers unfamiliar with the background, AbbVie is widely considered a Dividend Champion, a Dividend Aristocrat, or a dividend king by dividend investors. These titles require annual dividend g...
Mythos让大家恐惧了好几天，终于有大牛厌烦了。 率先站出来开炮的是杨立昆。杨老师昨晚指出，“Anthropic的Mythos营销戏是自我陶醉的胡说八道”。 杨立昆在技术观点上的老对手、AI批评家、大模型怀疑论者、纽约大学教授加里·马库斯，今日凌晨的措辞稍温和些：“Mythos的炒作大部分是神话迷思（The Mythos stuff was mostly a myth）……攻破火狐浏览器时，浏览...
Mythos让大家恐惧了好几天，终于有大牛厌烦了。 率先站出来开炮的是杨立昆。杨老师昨晚指出，“Anthropic的Mythos营销戏是自我陶醉的胡说八道”。 杨立昆在技术观点上的老对手、AI批评家、大模型怀疑论者、纽约大学教授加里·马库斯，今日凌晨的措辞稍温和些：“Mythos的炒作大部分是神话迷思（The Mythos stuff was mostly a myth）……攻破火狐浏览器时，浏览器的沙箱被关闭了。其他功能能被廉价的开放权重模型实现。没有证据证明Mythos本身是质变飞跃。简单讲，大家被耍了”。 杨立昆和马库斯一针见血的戳破了AI大厂给新品营销造势的一种套路，我们可以称之为“末日狂欢”模式： 首先，AI大厂宣布新品在研究过程中就具备了大则毁天灭地、小则改天换地的能力。 然后， AI大厂和大老板们宣布各种合作项目在短期内展示本司的安全约束、发布各种方针文档展示本司长期心系人类的存续与经济福祉。 Mythos显然有此嫌疑。4月8号，Anthropic用244页系统卡文档放风Mythos各种可怕，同时宣布和全数码行业的大公司合作搞监督与修补Mythos的“玻璃翼计划”。 A厂的死对头OpenAI也是玩这一招的高手。4月7日，奥特曼暗示GPT6将翻覆美国经济，同时发布13页白皮书《智能时代产业政策：以人为先的观念》、宣布成立“AI安全研究奖学金”项目。 此现象不是这两天才出现。自从ChatGPT可以口吐人言开始，奥特曼、马斯克、阿莫迪们基本每个月都会公开渲染“AI消灭人类”的风险，灭世可能性从一开始的2%在三年内上升到20%。 从专家到大众，所有人都开始越来越不吃这套。 按普罗大众的思路，既然AI这么可怕，这几个大老板别拼命更新产品版本、提升产品性能，人类不就躲过劫难了么。大老板们一边定时表演担忧AI毁天灭地、一边遇到敌视AI的声音就哭天抢地，AI会否发神经病比较难说，这几个人可能是真得吃药。 大家真要这么想，那真是“丞相非在梦中，君乃在梦中耳”。 “安全AI”和人类福祉是种主义，“机构俘获”和口碑营销是种生意。AI大厂和大老板们嘴边常挂主义，心里都是生意。 引用一句俏皮话，这就是“刮掉AI末世论大人物的画皮，底色是嫌AI还不够强大的加速论者”（Scratch a Doomer hard enough and you will find a Booster ...
nojustice/E+ via Getty Images Intro National Presto Industries ( NPK ) is a company best known for selling household kitchen appliances such as the Presto pressure cooker. They are also the U.S. military's sole source supplier of 40mm grenade ammunition and are sitting on a $1.75B defense backlog that has tripled in two years. NPK is the definition of a misunderstood business and is sitting on mul...
nojustice/E+ via Getty Images Intro National Presto Industries ( NPK ) is a company best known for selling household kitchen appliances such as the Presto pressure cooker. They are also the U.S. military's sole source supplier of 40mm grenade ammunition and are sitting on a $1.75B defense backlog that has tripled in two years. NPK is the definition of a misunderstood business and is sitting on multiple sole-source contracts that are being hidden by its legacy appliances business. In the first 12 days of the Iran campaign, the United States consumed $16.5B in munitions and requested a $200B supplemental from Congress. NPK's defense subsidiaries manufacture the exact conventional munitions that must be replenished over the next cycle. The company's sole-source positions, vertically integrated manufacturing base, and its freshly expanded production capacity make it a primary beneficiary of what defense analysts are calling the strongest munitions procurement cycle we have seen in decades. Defense Niche & Macro Catalysts The core of NPK's defense value lies in AMTEC Corporation's position as the world's largest producer of 40mm grenade ammunition and fuzing. They are the sole prime contractor for this entire family of grenades, and they are literally the only company capable of doing this. AMTEC produces the full spectrum of 40mm cartridges. Two massive contract vehicles anchor the 40mm backlog. The first is the 5th consecutive sole-source 40mm systems contract, which was awarded with a ceiling of $826.7M in FY2022, extending into FY2026. Cumulative awards have already reached ~$965M, exceeding their previously stated ceiling. The second contract anchoring this was a five-year IDIQ contract for M918E2 TP-DNT training ammunition, which was awarded in FY2024 with a ceiling of $818.9M. Beyond this, NPK's other subsidiaries hold several other sole-source and critical supplier positions. Amron is the sole producer of medium-caliber cartridge cases (20mm, 24mm, 30mm, 40mm, an...
akinbostanci Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are said to have summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic PBC ( ANTHRO ) will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Bessent and Powell assembled the group at Treasury’s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday to make sure banks are a...
akinbostanci Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are said to have summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic PBC ( ANTHRO ) will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Bessent and Powell assembled the group at Treasury’s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday to make sure banks are aware of possible future risks raised by Anthropic’s Mythos and potential similar models and are taking precautions to defend their systems, according to media reports. JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) CEO Jamie Dimon was invited to the conversation with Bessent but could not attend. Bloomberg News, which first reported the matter on Thursday, said the CEOs of Citigroup ( C ), Morgan Stanley ( MS ), Bank of America ( BAC ), Wells Fargo ( WFC ), and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) were present. Last week, Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) said it was in ongoing discussions with U.S. government officials about the model's "offensive and defensive cyber capabilities." In his annual letter published this week, Dimon wrote that it “remains one of our biggest risks” and that “AI will almost surely make this risk worse” and would require significant investment for defence. Anthropic on Tuesday released the model, dubbed Claude Mythos Preview, to a select group of partners, including Amazon ( AMZN ), Apple ( AAPL ), and Microsoft ( MSFT ), to give them a “head start on being able to secure vulnerabilities”. More on Anthropic, JPMorgan Chase, etc. JPMorgan Chase: Earnings Offer Catalyst Opportunity For Shares Anthropic Is Taking Over Enterprise Morgan Stanley Stock Outlook: Why The Bull Case Still Holds Apollo's Rowan resolves JPMorgan suit regarding Charlie Javice fraud - report Fed ends 2018 forex trading enforcement action against Goldman Sachs
格隆汇4月10日｜据中国贸易救济信息网，4月9日，美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）投票决定对特定电动航空器及其动力系统和组件（Certain Electric Aircraft, Power Systems for Electric Aircraft, and Components Thereof）启动337调查（调查编码：337-TA-1499）。2026年3月10日，美国Archer Aviati...
格隆汇4月10日｜据中国贸易救济信息网，4月9日，美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）投票决定对特定电动航空器及其动力系统和组件（Certain Electric Aircraft, Power Systems for Electric Aircraft, and Components Thereof）启动337调查（调查编码：337-TA-1499）。2026年3月10日，美国Archer Aviation Inc. of San Jose, California向美国ITC提出337立案调查申请，主张对美出口、在美进口和在美销售的该产品违反了美国337条款（侵权美国注册专利号11,945,594、12,162,614、8,469,306、12,103,404、12,472,087），请求美国ITC发布有限排除令、禁止令。美国Joby Aero, Inc., Santa Cruz, California、美国Joby Aviation, Inc., Santa Cruz, California为列名被告。美国国际贸易委员会将于立案后45天内确定调查结束期。除美国贸易代表基于政策原因否决的情况外，美国国际贸易委员会在337案件中发布的救济令自发布之日生效并于发布之日后的第60日起具有终局效力。
Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Oil and gas stocks have become more interesting lately amid the intense situation in the Middle East. Chevron Corporation ( CVX ) greatly benefited from it in line with the rising prices. On top of that, I believe the recent rally was justifiable considering my conservative target price, or TP, of $200.73 in my previous coverage . At its current price, ...
Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Oil and gas stocks have become more interesting lately amid the intense situation in the Middle East. Chevron Corporation ( CVX ) greatly benefited from it in line with the rising prices. On top of that, I believe the recent rally was justifiable considering my conservative target price, or TP, of $200.73 in my previous coverage . At its current price, CVX may have already priced in everything at a discount. Technicals adhere to valuation and fundamentals as bullish momentum remains evident despite the recent overbuying and profit-taking. Iran War: I Think Chevron Benefits From It Oil prices have skyrocketed to their two-year highs as the Middle East tension escalated. I believe that CVX greatly benefited from it since higher oil prices mean higher oil production margins. After all, it is an upstream-heavy company. It’s not surprising that oil prices can easily affect its earnings and stock price. That is why the US-Iran ceasefire led to oil price drops, which also pushed CVX down on a single day. In addition, I believe that the impact of the ceasefire will affect CVX more than Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), since CVX is more upstream-heavy compared to XOM. Earnings (CVX Q4 2025 Release ) On a lighter note, the positive impact of the deal will be more on its production stability. I also believe that the actual impact of the recent tension has remained manageable for CVX. Why? CVX had already expected to cut its oil production by 185,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day even before the war started. So, war-related oil production cuts (if it really happened to CVX) were probably priced in already. And I think this is what makes it a bit different from XOM. Moreover, CVX may benefit from the reopening of its Leviathan gas production in offshore Israel. This is a crucial aspect since it helps CVX diversify its presence outside the Americas. The production capacity here is also high. Currently, it has around 12 billion cubic...