The AI capex bubble may have delayed a recession, as I discussed in this recent Seeking Alpha article , but with leading economic and employment indicators continuing to fall, this bubble may not prevent a recession. Leading Economic Index Keeps Falling As shown in the chart below, the Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) has fallen about 20% over the past four years. Historically,...
The AI capex bubble may have delayed a recession, as I discussed in this recent Seeking Alpha article , but with leading economic and employment indicators continuing to fall, this bubble may not prevent a recession. Leading Economic Index Keeps Falling As shown in the chart below, the Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) has fallen about 20% over the past four years. Historically, such a deep and persistent decline in the LEI has resulted in a recession. The Conference Board Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, summarized the latest report as follows: “The US LEI fell again in both October and November. Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing. Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026.” Red Flags in December Jobs Report Given the persistent decline in the LEI, it should not be surprising that employment is weakening, since one key characteristic of a recession is job losses. We do not have major job losses yet, but we are getting close. The jobs report for December showed there were only 50K new jobs added that month. And, as has been the case all year, the jobs report also showed negative revisions for prior months. October was revised down by 68K jobs, resulting in 173K jobs lost in that month. November was revised down by 8K jobs, resulting in only 56K new jobs added in that month. Both months combined were revised down by 76K jobs. Incredibly, the first 11 months of 2025 were revised down by an average of 57K jobs per month. Assuming December is not revised down, which is a major assumption, there were just 584K new jobs...
Earnings season has been a dud for Magnificent Seven stocks, but the rotation away from Big Tech has barely dented the group’s hold over the S&P 500. Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, and Meta Platforms entered the year making up 36.9% of the index's total market cap.
Earnings season has been a dud for Magnificent Seven stocks, but the rotation away from Big Tech has barely dented the group’s hold over the S&P 500. Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, and Meta Platforms entered the year making up 36.9% of the index's total market cap.
The European Commission on Friday accused TikTok of purposefully designing its app for being “addictive,” calling out features such as infinite scroll, autoplay, and push notifications, as well as its recommendation engine. In preliminary findings from an investigation that sought to determine TikTok’s compliance with the European Union’s far-reaching Digital Services Act, the Commission said the ...
The European Commission on Friday accused TikTok of purposefully designing its app for being “addictive,” calling out features such as infinite scroll, autoplay, and push notifications, as well as its recommendation engine. In preliminary findings from an investigation that sought to determine TikTok’s compliance with the European Union’s far-reaching Digital Services Act, the Commission said the short video platform did not “adequately assess” how its design decisions could harm the well-being of its users, particularly minors and vulnerable adults. The EU’s executive arm said the company disregarded “important indicators of compulsive use of the app” like the time users spend at night, and how often users open it. “By constantly ‘rewarding’ users with new content, certain design features of TikTok fuel the urge to keep scrolling and shift the brain of users into ‘autopilot mode’. Scientific research shows that this may lead to compulsive behaviour and reduce users’ self-control,” the Commission wrote in a statement. The Commission said TikTok must change the “basic design” of its user interface by disabling features like infinite scroll, implementing screen time breaks, and changing its recommendation system. TikTok did not immediately respond to TechCrunch’s request for comment. TikTok does offer screen-time management tools and parental controls, but the European Commission said those tools don’t do enough to reduce the risks of its addictive design. “The time management tools do not seem to be effective in enabling users to reduce and control their use of TikTok because they are easy to dismiss and introduce limited friction. Similarly, parental controls may not be effective because they require additional time and skills from parents to introduce the controls,” the Commission wrote. Techcrunch event TechCrunch Founder Summit 2026: Tickets Live On June 23 in Boston, more than 1,100 founders come together at TechCrunch Founder Summit 2026 for a full day focused ...
When it comes to the world’s richest billionaires, tech founders litter the top of the list. AI has been heralded as a multitrillion-dollar industry, catapulting many founders to extreme wealth; but now AI bubble fears and doubts over valuations have led to billions erased from CEOs’ net worth overnight. For Larry Ellison, whose net worth has been hardest hit, that looks like a $59.2 billion loss ...
When it comes to the world’s richest billionaires, tech founders litter the top of the list. AI has been heralded as a multitrillion-dollar industry, catapulting many founders to extreme wealth; but now AI bubble fears and doubts over valuations have led to billions erased from CEOs’ net worth overnight. For Larry Ellison, whose net worth has been hardest hit, that looks like a $59.2 billion loss since the year started—and we’re only in February. After months of eyebrow-raising over software stocks and AI’s impact on the sector, a selloff on Tuesday triggered the loss of billions among the wealthiest. In the few days since then, Ellison has watched his wealth slide by $19 billion, according to current data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. While Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s fortune has dropped by $14 billion. The Tuesday selloff, turbocharged by Anthropic’s new legal AI tool, also sent the already dwindling fortunes of software billionaires to tumble even harder. Following the broad selloff that saw the S&P 500 software and services index fall by nearly 4%, at least $62 billion was wiped from the net worth of the industry’s wealthiest entrepreneurs so far this year, according to a Bloomberg analysis of its Billionaires Index. But the three founders of advertising platform AppLovin saw the biggest relative decline in wealth in the aftermath in the selloff; CEO Adam Foroughi lost 31% of his net worth since the start of the year, around $7.8 billion, while former CTO John Krystynak’s fortune was shaved down 30% after a $2.4 billion blow. Fellow AppLovin cofounder Andrew Karam also emerged from the selloff 29% less rich than at the start of 2026. Despite building the world’s most valuable company thanks to AI advancements, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has also faced a decline; he’s lost $7 billion since the selloff earlier this week, and is down nearly $12 billion this year. And the net worth of Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft, has gone through the wringer this we...
Just_Super/iStock via Getty Images Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( PGY ), one of my top 3 small-cap picks to outperform in 2026, is set to report its Q4 earnings next week, with its stock down 63% from the 52-week high it reached last September and 38% down from my last coverage last October. While sentiment around the financial sector remains bearish, I believe the company’s upcoming Q4 earnings could...
Just_Super/iStock via Getty Images Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( PGY ), one of my top 3 small-cap picks to outperform in 2026, is set to report its Q4 earnings next week, with its stock down 63% from the 52-week high it reached last September and 38% down from my last coverage last October. While sentiment around the financial sector remains bearish, I believe the company’s upcoming Q4 earnings could be the spark to drive a re-rating thanks to its potential to exceed analysts’ estimates for revenue and EPS, in light of the strong origination growth reported by some of its key partners. With that in mind, I anticipate Pagaya’s network volume to top $3 billion in Q4, potentially driving a potential 4.7-6.1% revenue beat. Meanwhile, net charge-off rate increases at two key Pagaya partners during Q4 could limit the potential operating leverage gains from such a revenue beat, as I estimate the company’s EPS to beat estimates by $0.02-0.03. For FY 2026, I expect Pagaya to maintain its robust growth rates, anticipating 25% YoY topline growth thanks to its growing pipeline of partners onboarding its platform. This is mainly due to the company’s new strategy of accelerating partner onboarding, positioning it to penetrate these partners’ loan application flows faster. At the same time, the company’s approach of upselling newer products to its partners could prove to be a major organic growth driver, considering that multi-product partners contribute the majority of its network volume despite representing a minority of its total partners. These factors, combined with the company’s operating leverage, could lead to 138% YoY EPS growth relative to my FY 2025 estimate. With the stock trading at deep-value territory, in my opinion, I’m reiterating my strong buy rating for Pagaya with a $56 price target, implying 235% potential upside from current levels. Q4 Preview On February 9th, Pagaya is set to report its Q4 earnings, where analysts expect the company to report revenues of $348.7...
It’s right to focus on what the PM knew about Peter Mandelson, but many pointing the finger also knew and chose to ignore it Everything Donald Trump touches dies. He put his name on the Kennedy Center in Washington, prompting artists and performers to flee in such numbers that the venue will now shut down for “approximately” two years. The Washington Post under owner Jeff Bezos sought to ingratiat...
It’s right to focus on what the PM knew about Peter Mandelson, but many pointing the finger also knew and chose to ignore it Everything Donald Trump touches dies. He put his name on the Kennedy Center in Washington, prompting artists and performers to flee in such numbers that the venue will now shut down for “approximately” two years. The Washington Post under owner Jeff Bezos sought to ingratiate itself with the second Trump presidency; this week it announced 300 layoffs and the withering of that once great institution. And now we can add one more, unexpected item to the list poisoned by the touch of Trump: Britain’s Labour government. It’s easily forgotten, but it was because of Trump that Keir Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson to serve as the UK ambassador to Washington. The prime minister decided it would take a snake to navigate the serpentine backchannels of the new administration and that Mandelson had the skill set. The result is an irony rich enough to make you retch. The Epstein files, which contain more than 38,000 references to Trump , his Mar-a-Lago estate and other related terms, seem set to bring down a national leader who is not mentioned by Epstein even once. Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
is a senior reviewer with over twenty years of experience. She covers smart home, IoT, and connected tech, and has written previously for Wirecutter, Wired, Dwell, BBC, and US News. Posts from this author will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. All the smart home news, reviews, and gadgets you need to know about I’ve used Alexa to manage my shopping list for years. There a...
is a senior reviewer with over twenty years of experience. She covers smart home, IoT, and connected tech, and has written previously for Wirecutter, Wired, Dwell, BBC, and US News. Posts from this author will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. All the smart home news, reviews, and gadgets you need to know about I’ve used Alexa to manage my shopping list for years. There are plenty of great list apps out there, but the convenience of adding items by voice anywhere in my house, pulling up the list on an Echo Show in the kitchen, and having it on my phone via the Alexa app has worked well for me. Until it didn’t. Alexa Plus, combined with a redesign of the Alexa app that puts the generative AI-powered assistant front and center, has made the entire process so irritating that I’ve reluctantly switched to Apple’s Reminders app and Siri. This is not what I wanted. I have Echos all over my house, but only a couple of HomePods, and Siri insists on saying my name every time I ask it to add something to the list: “Okay, Jennifer, apples are on your list.” But at least when I pull up the list on my iPhone, it’s just a goddamn list. It’s not an ad for items I don’t want to buy from Whole Foods, or a way to try to get me to chat with Alexa Plus. Siri is annoying, but at least it stays in its lane. The Alexa app shopping list has become increasingly more cluttered. By comparison, the Apple Reminders shopping list is clean and simple. The list experience in the Alexa app has been changing in small ways for a while now. First, I started seeing more ads for the aforementioned Whole Foods products. Then I had to tap through two screens to add anything. Now, the new Alexa chatbot text box appears at the bottom of my list, prompting me to “Ask Alexa.” It’s the worst place for it, as the instinct is to put what you want to add to your list in there. In the Reminders app, that’s where there’s a nice big plus sign to add an item. But when I typed “butter” into Al...
Intel CPU prices jump 10% as delays reach 6 months in China Company faces severe server processor shortages as AI infrastructure boom strains chip supply and prices surge over 10 percent Intel Corporation has informed Chinese customers about severe server CPU shortages that could result in delivery delays of up to six months for certain processors. The chip giant sent notifications in recent weeks...
Intel CPU prices jump 10% as delays reach 6 months in China Company faces severe server processor shortages as AI infrastructure boom strains chip supply and prices surge over 10 percent Intel Corporation has informed Chinese customers about severe server CPU shortages that could result in delivery delays of up to six months for certain processors. The chip giant sent notifications in recent weeks warning clients about extended wait times as the company struggles to fulfill a massive backlog of unfulfilled orders. AMD has also notified clients that delivery times have stretched to eight to 10 weeks for some processors, highlighting how the shortage affects multiple major chip manufacturers. The supply constraints have already pushed Intel’s server product prices in China higher by more than 10 percent. China represents critical market amid crisis The supply crisis comes at a challenging time as China accounts for over 20 percent of Intel’s total revenue. Intel’s fourth-generation and fifth-generation Xeon CPUs face the most acute shortages, forcing the company to ration deliveries to manage limited supply. Two sources confirmed that Intel maintains a substantial backlog of pending orders that has created the extended delivery timeline. The company has accumulated orders faster than its manufacturing capacity can fulfill them, creating a growing gap between demand and available supply. AI demand drives unprecedented shortage The shortage stems from rapid growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure investment as companies worldwide build data centers and AI systems. This expansion has increased demand for both AI-specific chips and standard computing components, creating fierce competition for manufacturing capacity. Intel acknowledged that the AI adoption surge has created strong demand for traditional computing power beyond just specialized AI processors. Advanced agentic AI systems require more CPU processing power than basic chatbots because these systems per...
Europe In Decline By Teeuwe Mevissen of Rabobank Not even a month ago, today’s author of the Global Daily walked through the main hall of the Musée d’Orsay, admiring its remarkable collection. Among the many sculptures, one large painting by Thomas Couture inevitably draws the eye: Romans in Their Decadence . At first glance, it appears to depict Roman citizens engaged in an orgy, but a closer loo...
Europe In Decline By Teeuwe Mevissen of Rabobank Not even a month ago, today’s author of the Global Daily walked through the main hall of the Musée d’Orsay, admiring its remarkable collection. Among the many sculptures, one large painting by Thomas Couture inevitably draws the eye: Romans in Their Decadence . At first glance, it appears to depict Roman citizens engaged in an orgy, but a closer look reveals far more. Beyond the opulence on display, one sees a figure desecrating a statue resembling a former emperor or deity. Only three figures – the contemplative man on the far left and two men observing with evident disdain on the right – seem detached from the excess around them. When the painting debuted at the Paris Salon, the exhibition catalogue included a quote from Juvenal:“ Nunc patimur longae pacis mala; savior armis luxuria incubuit, victumque ulciscitur orbem .” – “ Now do we suffer the evils of prolonged peace; luxury, more ruthless than the sword, broods over us and avenges a conquered world.” A portrait of Rome in decline. And today, some argue, a portrait of Europe. Political and economic commentators increasingly draw parallels between today’s Europe and the late Roman Empire. Those who subscribe to the decline narrative point to data showing that Europe’s share of global GDP has fallen from 25% in 1990 to roughly 14% today . Others highlight the innovation gap, demographic headwinds, and the erosion of industrial competitiveness. While these trends worry many, a Wall Street Journal report yesterday added a more urgent dimension: a recent wargame underscored Europe’s vulnerability to a potential Russian attack. The Dutch Defence Minister noted that “Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year” and that Moscow is already expanding its assets along NATO borders. This alone underscores the perceived urgency amongst European leaders to accelerate efforts to rebuild and modernize its military capabilities – and suggests that Europe’...
Bitcoin is still worth buying, but Shiba Inu isn't. 2026 hasn't been kind to cryptocurrency investors so far. Most of the top tokens declined as investors fretted over elevated interest rates, challenging macroeconomic headwinds, and competition from traditional commodities like gold and silver. However, instead of shunning the entire crypto industry, investors should probably just be more selecti...
Bitcoin is still worth buying, but Shiba Inu isn't. 2026 hasn't been kind to cryptocurrency investors so far. Most of the top tokens declined as investors fretted over elevated interest rates, challenging macroeconomic headwinds, and competition from traditional commodities like gold and silver. However, instead of shunning the entire crypto industry, investors should probably just be more selective with the coins they buy. It's still smart to buy blue chip leaders like Bitcoin (BTC +3.11%), but it also might be better to avoid altcoins like Shiba Inu (SHIB +5.24%). The token to buy: Bitcoin Bitcoin's price has declined about 30% over the past 12 months, but it's still the world's most valuable cryptocurrency with a market cap of $1.4 trillion. It's also still up more than 70% over the past five years, even after weathering a frigid crypto winter in 2022 and 2023. Bitcoin experienced wild price swings during that period, plummeting from about $68,000 in November 2021 to a multi-year low of about $16,000 in November 2022. Yet it recovered from that swoon as several catalysts kicked in. Expand CRYPTO : BTC Bitcoin Today's Change ( 3.11 %) $ 2104.30 Current Price $ 69837.00 Key Data Points Market Cap $1.4T Day's Range $ 60256.00 - $ 69755.00 52wk Range $ 60256.00 - $ 126079.89 Volume 159B Declining interest rates drove investors back toward Bitcoin and other riskier assets, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the token underwent its latest halving -- which halves its mining rewards every 4 years -- in 2024. More institutional investors accumulated Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and more companies and countries established "Bitcoin Treasuries". Bitcoin will remain volatile in this choppy market, but it has clear advantages against other cryptocurrencies. It's still actively mined with powerful computer chips, it has a supply cap of 21 million tokens, and nearly 20 million of those to...
aprott The UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency has updated information for Novo Nordisk's ( NVO ) Ozempic and Wegovy, which both contain semaglutide as the active ingredient, regarding a rare risk of developing a condition that can cause sudden vision loss in one eye. The agency said that from 2018 until Aug. 1, 2025, it has received three reports of non-arteritic anterior isc...
aprott The UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency has updated information for Novo Nordisk's ( NVO ) Ozempic and Wegovy, which both contain semaglutide as the active ingredient, regarding a rare risk of developing a condition that can cause sudden vision loss in one eye. The agency said that from 2018 until Aug. 1, 2025, it has received three reports of non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) associated with individuals taking semaglutide, which is also sold as a pill under the name Rybelsus. The MHRA noted that studies indicate NAION may affect 1 in 10,000 individuals taking semaglutide. The agency is investigating whether other GLP-1 agonists carry the rare risk of NAION. Eli Lilly's ( LLY ) Mounjaro and Zepbound, which both contain tirzepatide, are considered dual GIP/GLP-1 agonists. More on Novo Nordisk Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Novo Nordisk A/S 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Novo Nordisk board proposes DKK 7.95 final dividend for 2025, initiates DKK 15B buyback Novo Nordisk’s 2026 outlook in focus as competition pressures sales
Advertising agency releases step-by-step guide following Amazon's MCP Server open beta launch, enabling sellers to manage campaigns through natural language New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - February 6, 2026) - Clear Ads, an advertising agency, released a step-by-step implementation guide for sellers looking to connect AI agents to Amazon's advertising platform through the newly launched Ads M...
Advertising agency releases step-by-step guide following Amazon's MCP Server open beta launch, enabling sellers to manage campaigns through natural language New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - February 6, 2026) - Clear Ads, an advertising agency, released a step-by-step implementation guide for sellers looking to connect AI agents to Amazon's advertising platform through the newly launched Ads MCP Server open beta. Amazon announced the open beta of its Ads Model Context Protocol (MCP) Server on February 2 at the IAB Annual Leadership Meeting. The server acts as a translation layer that converts natural language prompts into structured API calls, allowing AI platforms to create campaigns, pull performance reports, and manage budgets through a single integration. Clear Ads' guide walks sellers through the full setup process, from verifying API credentials to executing first commands. The practical shift is significant. Tasks that required 15-20 minutes of manual work in Campaign Manager, creating campaigns, setting up ad groups, adding keywords, can now be completed in a single text prompt. Multi-marketplace expansion that previously meant repeating the entire process for each country reduces to one sentence. "Sellers spending real money on Amazon ads don't have time to wait for this to get easy. The ones who start testing now build systems their competitors can't replicate in six months," said George Meressa, Founder of Clear Ads. Amazon's MCP Server is available globally to partners with active Amazon Ads API credentials. The open beta includes pre-built tools for end-to-end Sponsored Products campaign creation, cross-country campaign expansion, keyword management across campaigns, and consolidated performance reporting. The Model Context Protocol is an open standard originally developed by Anthropic that standardizes how AI systems communicate with external tools. Before MCP, each AI tool required its own custom integration with each advertising platform. The pro...
TomasSereda/iStock via Getty Images Gold. Fields ( GFI ) +7.2% in Friday's trading after saying it expects to report its profit last year likely almost tripled, reflecting a combination of materially higher gold prices and increased volumes of gold sold, according to a trading statement . Gold Fields ( GFI ), which will announce its full annual result later this month, said FY 2025 gold production...
TomasSereda/iStock via Getty Images Gold. Fields ( GFI ) +7.2% in Friday's trading after saying it expects to report its profit last year likely almost tripled, reflecting a combination of materially higher gold prices and increased volumes of gold sold, according to a trading statement . Gold Fields ( GFI ), which will announce its full annual result later this month, said FY 2025 gold production jumped 18% Y/Y to 2.4M oz. The company expects full-year headline earnings in the $2.79-$2.97/share range, representing a 110%-123% increase on the $1.33 reported for the previous year, and basic EPS for 2025 are expected at $3.87-$4.11, up 178%-196% from $1.39/share reported for 2024. The strong earnings performance reflected higher gold prices, increased volumes of gold sold, and the full consolidation of the Gruyere mine in Australia, which was partially offset by higher cost of sales in line with general mining inflation, increased royalties due to the higher gold price and higher volumes mined, the company said . Full-year all-in sustaining costs are expected at $1,645/oz, up 1% from $1,629/oz reported in 2024, the company said. For Q4, Gold Fields ( GFI ) anticipates attributable gold equivalent production of 681K oz, compared with 621K oz in Q3, and all-in sustaining costs of $1,673/oz, vs. $1,557/oz in Q3; Q4 forecast includes 100% of Gruyere's production, up from 50% in Q3. Gold prices surged nearly 65% last year, and bullion has continued to rise this year, hitting an all-time high close to $5,600/oz on January 29 before paring those gains. More on Gold Fields Gold Fields Shines As Gold Creeps Closer To $5,000, Reiterate 'Buy' Gold Fields: A Miner Worth Owning, But Not Chasing Here Gold Fields Analyst/Investor Day - Slideshow
Last year, a team of scientists presented evidence that spruce trees in Italy's Dolomite mountains synchronized their bioelectrical activity in anticipation of a partial solar eclipse—a potentially exciting new insight into the complexities of plant communication. The findings naturally generated media interest and even inspired a documentary . But the claims drew sharp criticism from other resear...
Last year, a team of scientists presented evidence that spruce trees in Italy's Dolomite mountains synchronized their bioelectrical activity in anticipation of a partial solar eclipse—a potentially exciting new insight into the complexities of plant communication. The findings naturally generated media interest and even inspired a documentary . But the claims drew sharp criticism from other researchers in the field, with some questioning whether the paper should even have been published. Those initial misgivings are outlined in more detail in a new critique published in the journal Trends in Plant Science. For the original paper, Alessandro Chiolerio, a physicist at the Italian Institute of Technology, collaborated with plant ecologist Monica Gagliano of Southern Cross University and several others conducting field work in the Costa Bocche forest in the Dolomites. They essentially created an EKG for trees, attaching electrodes to three spruce trees (ranging in age from 20 to 70 years) and five tree stumps in the forest. Those sensors recorded a marked increase in bioelectrical activity during a partial solar eclipse on October 22, 2022. The activity peaked mid-eclipse and faded away in its aftermath. Chiolerio et al. interpreted this spike in activity as a coordinated response among the trees to the darkened conditions brought on by the eclipse. And older trees' electrical activity spiked earlier and more strongly than the younger trees, which Chiolerio et al. felt was suggestive of trees developing response mechanisms—a kind of memory captured in associated gravitational effects. Older trees might even transmit this knowledge to younger trees, the authors suggested, based on the detection of bioelectrical waves traveling between the trees. Read full article Comments